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In-Season Talk 2016-17

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37 minutes ago, caniac6 said:

The Caps may have 7 20 goal scorers. The Pens will have 5, with a couple of them getting close to 40. We have 2, and the Pens and Caps have better goal tending, too. I think we will need more than one real good offensive player, along with much better goal tending. We might have to part with one of young D, and rely on another young Dman in development, but the good teams have depth scoring, and until the Canes get that, they will be golfing and fishing in mid April. Rebuilding since 2010.

 

To be a cup contender we need more than one. But to make the playoffs, the right guy could get us there.

 

Our core is young and will improve. Lindholm, while I am picking on him, put up 17 goals as a 19 year old. And TT has more goals in him.

 

In the long run, look for Roy and Gauthier.

 

But to your point, I do agree. To be a perennial cup contender we will need to add at least two more. But when we get close we can make that move. More likely to be able to draw a UFA if team is close, or add a guy through further trades. Plus we may pick a guy high this year.

 

But gotta start somewhere. And for now adding a key guy and getting marginal improvement from guys like Lindy and TT, combined with goaltending, should at least get us in.

Edited by remkin
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Man, this is getting tough again.

 

Had made my peace this wasn't a playoff team and was just going to enjoy the rest of year, and hope the losing continued for a hopefully a top 3 pick.. But in typical canes fashion, they are once again winning enough to not only move out of top 5 but much closer to 10th now. So typical of canes to frustrate both to the "good" and "bad".. really enjoyed last night, just wish happened a month ago when mattered.

 

I understand not rooting for losses- but good grief!.. just as tired of being "bad enough to not make playoffs", but "good enough to not get a top pick to change future"...This hamster wheel of the last 7 years just as bad and frustrating.

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44 minutes ago, caniac6 said:

The Caps may have 7 20 goal scorers. The Pens will have 5, with a couple of them getting close to 40. We have 2, and the Pens and Caps have better goal tending, too. I think we will need more than one real good offensive player, along with much better goal tending. We might have to part with one of young D, and rely on another young Dman in development, but the good teams have depth scoring, and until the Canes get that, they will be golfing and fishing in mid April. Rebuilding since 2010.

Yes, but you and rem are forgetting our secret weapon(s)!! Our D are scoring at a torrid pace now, haha!!

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40 minutes ago, remkin said:

 

Lindholm, while I am picking on him, put up 17 goals as a 19 year old. And TT has more goals in him.

 

 

Rem, the crazy thing is that Lindy has had many point blank shots and wide open nets this year and has missed. I made a point a few posts ago that he should try some new sticks,perhaps with less curve to try and get a more consistent and a more repeatable shot. He had three opportunities last night,two of which he should of buried easily. He has the opportunity to score more and just needs to deliver.

Edited by slapshot02
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My guess is we call up Bickell for the Stars game so the home crowd can give him a roar and maybe he goes on the road to Pittsburgh so he can go out an NHL'er if he has to. 

 

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I'm not sure if PK is a tightwad owner or not. Top is right that he okayed several big (maybe too big) contracts up to the Semin contract. But he also let some guys walk over a small amount of money. Cole comes to mind. More importantly though, when he approved those large contracts, he was not trying to sell the team. Also, the dust-up with his kids makes you wonder if the pockets are as deep as they were 10 years ago. Either way, I agree with the post above that he'll show us where he stands if he does nothing to address some glaring needs when free agency opens up. We do have tradeable assets, but not enough to adequately fill all of the needs this team has.

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Just a reminder that 3 years ago the Canes were right around the cap max ($64.3m at the time).  Don't know if that's at all relevant to what PK will do going forward, but it seems like we tend to forgot that PK opened his wallet in the not too distant past. 

http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/cap/2013/

Edited by LakeLivin

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8 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

I'm not sure if PK is a tightwad owner or not. Top is right that he okayed several big (maybe too big) contracts up to the Semin contract. But he also let some guys walk over a small amount of money. Cole comes to mind. More importantly though, when he approved those large contracts, he was not trying to sell the team. Also, the dust-up with his kids makes you wonder if the pockets are as deep as they were 10 years ago. Either way, I agree with the post above that he'll show us where he stands if he does nothing to address some glaring needs when free agency opens up. We do have tradeable assets, but not enough to adequately fill all of the needs this team has.

This comment is not just to your post bd58, but to several where I believe there is a mistaken notion, that just because we have loads of Cap Space, and ergo, tons of available money to spend, despite PK's frugality or not, that we just wave that cash in our desired free agent player's face, and its automatic that we get them. Unless I'm badly mistaken, acquisitions of free agents are TWO WAY STREETS. Not only do we need to want them, BUT they must agree to come. Now, for the past several years, Raleigh has not been at the top of free agents' lists as a place to go despite the money. That may be changing now that we seem to be developing the ability to compete, but we all need to accept that the Holy Grail to these usually aging free agents is the CUP. If there is no reasonable chance to attain that goal, in the limited time most have, do we have a chance to attract these guys?

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42 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

Rem, the crazy thing is that Lindy has had many point blank shots and wide open nets this year and has missed. I made a point a few posts ago that he should try some new sticks,perhaps with less curve to try and get a more consistent and a more repeatable shot. He had three opportunities last night,two of which he should of buried easily. He has the opportunity to score more and just needs to deliver.

 

What, working with a blade shaped like a airplane prop doesn't get it done?

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The free agent list is ultra thin this year...Bonnio is the only player under 30 who's even worth a look. If we are going to upgrade with a scorer it is going to come via trade using our depth at D and picks. 

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I think several on here underestimated how big of a void Eric Staal left/would leave and how hard it would be to find his replacement.  That replacement is only going to come through the draft.  Teams do not trade their 1Cs.

Edited by bluedevil58

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42 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

I think several on here underestimated how big of a void Eric Staal left/would leave and how hard it would be to find his replacement.  That replacement is only going to come through the draft.  Teams do not trade their 1Cs.

 

That's possible.  And it's also possible that Staal wouldn't be having near the season he's having had he stayed in Carolina.  But the days of Staal being a legitimate 1c have long passed, imo. 

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The sad thing is,is he is better than any #1 center we currently have. I think the reason he is doing so well is he has pretty good wingers. After Cole was gone, he never had that one guy he really played well with. I always felt that E was the type of player that needed to surrounded by good players rather than the type of player that made others better.

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Eric signed with the Wild-he moved on...we should do the same- that's what happens when you "rebuild" no looking back- building from the goalie out-I for one hope we are not "looking for an Eric replacement" I hope RF is looking for the players we still need - LETS GO CANES

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Four coaches and a long line of skaters trying to adjust to Eric. Seems like the Wild just told Eric he needed to adjust to the team and not the team adjusting to him.

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I realized this morning what has me extra depressed at this team.  It isn't one thing, it is a syndrome.

 

1) They don't get in the playoffs.

2) They don't get top 3 draft picks.

3) They are not even in the playoff mix in March.

 

Geeeez, guys!  NOTHING from you.  Perfect mediocrity.  You can't win, you can't tank.

 

Your games are no different.  You can't win a damn overtime for the life of us.

 

I'm jealous of the 3 (or almost 4) team race for the wildcard.  At least those fans have SOMETHING to get their blood pressure moving.

 

This team here?  Nothing.  They got nothing.

 

P.S. (And they had nothing when bd58's savior was here either.  Well, something.  An <*I edited this*> stick swinger.)

 

P.P.S.  (I woke up on the wrong side of the bed, apparently.)

Edited by wxray1
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Have a Snickers Bar XRay...

 

My thoughts are that yes there have been some individual player improvements from past seasons (ie Slavin, Pesce etc) but generally speaking the team still has quite a hill to climb, not to just make the playoffs which frankly is not a high bar, but to actually compete in the playoffs.  If like LD says the free agent list is thin this year then that does not bode well where you can sign some 'instant strength' then work through a trade or two to supplement. I feel like our roster still needs to be turned over by about 30% this off season to sling shot us out of the depths of the league basement where we have lived since Fall 2010. Based on a given game just played we're either harping about goaltending or lack of a 1C. These are the 2 most important slots on a team and we seemingly have neither. If free agents aren't there to be had we will have to give up some seriously budding stars to find a legit starting keeper and an all that 1C; robbing peter to pay paul. Playoffs next year?  Just a maybe at best.

Edited by raleighcaniac

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So this is the time of year where the heart wants wins and the head knows losses are best. One thing that I've learned is that the idea that a young team needs to use the end of a bad season to "learn to win" is a bunch of hooey. Nothing carries over through the offseason and a new camp strong enough to be worth the loss of draft position.

 

THAT said, and as I've postulated for years now (because this keeps happening), the one thing that would probably hold over is any sort of explicit tank. So, you have to coach and play to win at all times. Heck, even root for wins as fans to try to keep the world right side up, but at the end of the day, losses are generally better.

 

And all of that said, this creates maximum pain: too bad for playoffs, too good for high draft pick. And we are there, yet again. And the magic beans hurt too. We have up to 3 fewer games played than some, and fewer games played than nearly all the teams around us in the draft battle.

 

That said, this year the NHL has finally put in place an anti-tanking mechanism that is pretty good. Historically, the can't miss prospects tend to cluster in the top 3. One is better than two is better than three, but as you go down from there, the risk of a miss or guy that falls short of expectations goes up. By awarding the top 3 via lottery (really top 4 this year since Vegas will pick before any non lottery winning team below them), it really does two things. One it means that the odds actually favor the biggest tank job team picking #4. Two, it creates so many post lottery possibilities, that a team can barely even really think about the draft until after the lottery.


 

Currently we sit #10 (#9, but will be pushed down by Vegas). There are 15 lottery spots. We also sit in the #10 (#9) slot in points per game. So at this exact moment that is the most likely place for us. However.....

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I'd personally like to see every non-playoff draft pick be drawn lottery style.  Give the worst finishing team 15 ping pong balls, the 2nd worse 14, and so forth and so on until the team with the best record (non-playoff) gets one ball.  Draw for each slot.  Pick the first selection for the #1 pick and then remove all that team's remaining balls.  Make the next pick and repeat that process.  That gives the worst teams an advantage, but it does not guarantee anything for poor play.

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So having more games with which to pick up points is a draft issue now. And there is another issue: Whether through badness or "tankishness", most of the teams racing for the bottom are losing. These two factors work against us getting a relatively higher pre-lottery position.

 

I'll cut to the quick. Given the loser points, the GIH, and tendency of bad teams to keep losing, there is a very high likelihood that we finish in the 8-13 slot pre-lottery. It would take a total collapse and some help to get higher than 8, and getting to 14 pick or worse is not possible in the real world (except after the lottery).

 

Again, right now we sit #10. We can move down the draft board past 3 teams, and up the board past 2 teams with some degree of likeliehood. Anything else is highly unlikely, requiring a losing streak by us, and a winning streak by, say Vancouver, Dallas or Detroit (outside of Buffalo and Winnipeg, who are passable, these are the only three that we have any shot at). If we have a deeply bad finish and one of them rises up and goes above .500. we could in theory go above #8.

 

Looking at the standings and taking some account of GIH, These are the teams currently in the 11-13 slots: And their GIH adjusted distance from us: (even if the GIH adjustment is not accurate, it is a vague estimate of how hard it would be to drop/rise on them).

 

LA +3

Florida +2

Philly +1

 

All above us in the standings, but quite within range. Teams above LA are all +7 to us. If you run scenarios, we cannot slide below them. They are in the playoffs to put it in perspective. So the worst we can do is #13 pre-lottery. (The slightly good news is that is it pretty unlikely to get pushed down from there after the lottery).

 

Teams in the 8-9 slots that we could drop below (beat out and rise in the draft):

 

Buffalo +3

Winnipeg +2

 

Unfortunately, the two most catchable teams below us, have 3 more games played. Still very catchable, but not as close as they look.

 

It is very unlikely to "catch" Detroit, Vancouver and Dallas as they are 5,5,6 adjusted points below of us, all losing, and only 12 games to go. But it is possible, and it is even more possible to catch at least one of them. So really our chances go with how much losing we do. If we go on say 3-8-4 finish, and one of those teams goes say 8-4. We could catch one maybe. But how likely is that?

 

So it's 8-13 almost assuredly, pre lottery.

 

And the following trends make it harder to drop in the standings:

 

0-8-2

5-4-1

5-5-0

2-5-3

4-4-2

2-6-2

4-5-1

2-7-1

 

Those are the "last 10 games" records for the teams around us. Detroit tanking at 0-8-2? Florida at 2-7-1? Florida is above us.

 

We have 15 games left. Other teams have 12-14 left mostly.

 

The point is that in the race for the bottom, especially w/ games in hand, it will be hard to move down (up), because those other teams are losing a lot too. Detroit and NJ are 5 points behind w/ GIH factored.

 

Here is an example:

 

If we went 3-8-4 over the last 15, that would be about as bad as we are likely to, we'd have 10 more points. But to drop below Vancouver, we would also need them to go 7-6 or better in their close out. (They are the 2-7-1 team up there in their last 10).

 

Thus in effect Dallas, Detroit, and NJ are pretty close to uncatchable, as is Arizona, and of course Colorado.

 

Bottom LIne: realistically there are only two teams we can "catch" that are below us (baring total collapse), and 3 teams we might catch that are above us. Thus it is highly likely we will slot 8-13 pre-draft.

 

 

So, it does matter. #8 is worth more than #15, and has higher lottery odds. If we end up picking #13 vs #8, that's 5 players we don't have a shot at. It is ultimately best that we lose just enough to get the #8 slot. Of course can't try to do that, just that it would be the best outcome.

 

It's still better to lose, but unless we win a lottery pick, we are not picking in the top 7 this year, and if we win a bunch of games at the end, we could get pushed down to #14 (about a 1/3 chance that the #13 slot gets pushed down).

Edited by remkin

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48 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

I'd personally like to see every non-playoff draft pick be drawn lottery style.  Give the worst finishing team 15 ping pong balls, the 2nd worse 14, and so forth and so on until the team with the best record (non-playoff) gets one ball.  Draw for each slot.  Pick the first selection for the #1 pick and then remove all that team's remaining balls.  Make the next pick and repeat that process.  That gives the worst teams an advantage, but it does not guarantee anything for poor play.

 

This is the Keep it Simple Stupid principal, I like it.

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27 minutes ago, remkin said:

So having more games with which to pick up points is a draft issue now. And there is another issue: Whether through badness or "tankishness", most of the teams racing for the bottom are losing. These two factors work against us getting a relatively higher pre-lottery position.

 

I'll cut to the quick. Given the loser points, the GIH, and tendency of bad teams to keep losing, there is a very high likelihood that we finish in the 8-13 slot pre-lottery. It would take a total collapse and some help to get higher than 8, and getting to 14 pick or worse is not possible in the real world (except after the lottery).

 

Sportsclubstats has a lottery prediction and agrees with you.

 

Tell ya'll what.  I *had* a Snickers, and it didn't help.  I'm still not myself.  I'm P.O.d.  Thanks Remkin, for making me even crankier.

 

This milquetoast team is enough to drive anyone nuts.

Edited by wxray1

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I guess going to Sportsclubstats would have been easier! :rolleyes:, I just started looking at the standings and got sucked into thinking about it.

 

Glad they agree, though wish we picked higher. Well we can always win the lottery. (Also my retirement plan. Just kidding).

Edited by remkin

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