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In-Season Talk 2016-17

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21 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

THIN PLAYOFF HOPES

You only need to go up a few posts to see my sarchasm about playoff hopes, but admittedly, they are alive.  They are about where the 2008 Caps were, although even the Caps had a better record.  We know what happened then.  It took not only a nearly perfect record for the Caps, but a nearly unperfect record for the Canes, and it happened.

 

What strikes me about these thin hopes is this: the Canes really did plan a brutal schedule at the wrong times.  Now they are hitting the easier teams.  It also helps to have situations like Coach Rowe putting in a cold goalie in his first start of the year.  Maybe it was a favor to old friends, because he's not going to survive that job.  Mark my words.  But I digress.

 

So now they are playing a "winable" schedule.  And doing well!  The question is, will CBJ, PIT and MIN have stuff to play for?  Looks like they will as the new playoff format really rewards getting overall #1.  So I don't expect those teams to put in their backups next week.  

 

What about Detroit?  Ah, a trap!  Much like the Canes, the Red Wings are playing loose with the pressure off and winning.  I see DET as being trap games for this impossible dream.  I think they'd be very happy to crush the souls of the Canes.  And why not?  They'll have a "HOME CROWD" behind them for both games.  (Expect it to be extra brutal since it is spring break, you can expect a lot of travelers, not just 1 game homers.)

 

Overall, if the Canes pull it off, it would be historical.  I disagree with BP's assessment that 90 gets you in.  What is he putting in that water anyway?

 

It will take 93 or 94 to get in.   Canes need 18 or 19 points out of a possible 22.  To shoot for 94, all we need to pay attention to now is we can only fail to get 3 more points, i.e. we get 1 more loss and one more OTL.  That's it. 

 

But we are still alive, and SportsClubStats has us up to 4.4% chance.   Way better chance than Jim Carrey had of getting with Lauren Holly.

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28 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

Apparently.  This is the first I heard of it.  Here is the exact wording from my ticket rep:

 

Thanks Don!

Don (or more broadly the Canes) might seek an increase, but the Centennial Parking Authority, a 21-member commission appointed by city, state, and county officials has to approve it, and they do it based on a study of other rates around the country (as detailed here).

 

June is when the authority approves (or denies) rate changes, and the wording from your rep alludes to that (albeit nebulously): If there's a rate change and you haven't locked in the current one prior to it changing, you're going to pay the new rate. Essentially the team is saying, "Re-up now and we'll eat any difference between the old rate and the new one." But that doesn't mean (1) the Canes will seek a higher rate, or (2) that if they do, they'll get it.

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3 minutes ago, hag65 said:

 

It will take 93 or 94 to get in.   Canes need 18 or 19 points out of a possible 22.  To shoot for 94, all we need to pay attention to now is we can only fail to get 3 more points, i.e. we get 1 more loss and one more OTL.  That's it. 

 

But we are still alive, and SportsClubStats has us up to 4.4% chance.   Way better chance than Jim Carrey had of getting with Lauren Holly.

MTL looms large. Given the narrow loss at the Bell Centre earlier this year, a win there Thursday would boost the wind in the team's sails.  

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53 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Don (or more broadly the Canes) might seek an increase, but the Centennial Parking Authority, a 21-member commission appointed by city, state, and county officials has to approve it, and they do it based on a study of other rates around the country (as detailed here).

 

June is when the authority approves (or denies) rate changes, and the wording from your rep alludes to that (albeit nebulously): If there's a rate change and you haven't locked in the current one prior to it changing, you're going to pay the new rate. Essentially the team is saying, "Re-up now and we'll eat any difference between the old rate and the new one." But that doesn't mean (1) the Canes will seek a higher rate, or (2) that if they do, they'll get it.

 

Threats count.  It shows their intention.  I also don't appreciate idle threats and bluffs as a sales tactic.  So no matter who blocks it, this says a lot about Gale Force Holdings and Mr. Waddell.  Sorry, top-shelf, I'm not going to sugar coat this threat.

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57 minutes ago, hag65 said:

 

It will take 93 or 94 to get in.   Canes need 18 or 19 points out of a possible 22.  To shoot for 94, all we need to pay attention to now is we can only fail to get 3 more points, i.e. we get 1 more loss and one more OTL.  That's it. 

 

+1, agree.  I've said 10 wins, because I think that is assured, but 9 1/2 will probably do.

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Two weeks ago if someone had told me I would be scoreboard watching this season I would of called them crazy.

Well call me crazy. We are 6 points out with 11 games left. A long shot for sure but a shot at this moment in time.

 

Tonight  The Leafs  (6 pts ahead) visit the Blue Jackets. Go CBJ!

             The Isles (3pts ahead) head uptown to meet the Rangers,  Lets Go Rangers

 

Yeah, call me crazy but I'm gonna have a little fun while I can.

            

 

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6 hours ago, wxray1 said:

 

Threats count.  It shows their intention.  I also don't appreciate idle threats and bluffs as a sales tactic.  So no matter who blocks it, this says a lot about Gale Force Holdings and Mr. Waddell.  Sorry, top-shelf, I'm not going to sugar coat this threat.

Hey, no apology needed. It absolutely is a threat, and you're right to call it out for the high-pressure sales tactic it is--one this org is no position to make. I was just offering the true facts behind the threat, i.e., the fact that a parking rate increase may not happen at all only makes the sales department's propaganda more insidious. 

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
typos
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1 hour ago, wxray1 said:

+1, agree.  I've said 10 wins, because I think that is assured, but 9 1/2 will probably do.

 

 

All the same, i'm pulling for 11.  Or none.  11 or bust.  Nothing in between...

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7 minutes ago, OBXer said:

Two weeks ago if someone had told me I would be scoreboard watching this season I would of called them crazy.

Well call me crazy. We are 6 points out with 11 games left. A long shot for sure but a shot at this moment in time.

 

Tonight  The Leafs  (6 pts ahead) visit the Blue Jackets. Go CBJ!

             The Isles (3pts ahead) head uptown to meet the Rangers,  Lets Go Rangers

 

Yeah, call me crazy but I'm gonna have a little fun while I can.

            

 

Been reading these boards since we drafted Skinner, like this post so much it made me finally create an account ??

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1 minute ago, AtlCaniac60 said:

Been reading these boards since we drafted Skinner, like this post so much it made me finally create an account ??

 

Welcome to the boards. Now don't be a stranger and join the discussion. There is plenty left to talk about this season;)

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18 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

It is probably too early to talk about tie breakers, right?

OK.  I looked. :)

I think the Canes have a favorable tie breaking record against:  Boston and Islanders

Unfavorable against: Tampa Bay, Toronto

Edited by wxray1
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20 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

Welcome to the boards. Now don't be a stranger and join the discussion. There is plenty left to talk about this season;)

Thx OBX, hopefully a lot more to talk about haven't been this existed this late into a season in a long while

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Using my mind instead of my heart, I feel like Toronto will easily hold on to the last slot. 

 

Most likely to catch them if someone does would be TB, in spite of their 2 losses in a row.  They have really gone on a tear of late and the only mystery was why they sucked so much this season.  They are much better than their record.

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4 minutes ago, hag65 said:

Using my mind instead of my heart, I feel like Toronto will easily hold on to the last slot. 

 

Agree.  And I had a counting error in my tie-breaker post.  Canes lose tie to TOR.

 

Probably mute, as it likely ends up as a fight between TOR and TB.

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Actually, right now Toronto has a better record than Boston. One point back, but with 2 magic beans in hand.  Boston losses may prove to be even more important than Toronto losses.  Next Bruins game: home against TB.  No loser point, please.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Welcome AtlCaniac60. Come on in the water's fine. Well it's water anyways.

 

Might as well hold onto the roughly 1/20 chance, you never know. It could happen!

 

The problem for me, on this whole "is it better to win at the end of the year" debate, is the whole Groundhog Day effect. We just keep reliving this situation over and over and over.

 

First, let me get this out of the way:

 

There is little tolerance here for considering draft order. So fine. No banging the head against that wall. We'll deal with the draft when the season is over. Team can't tank anyways, so it's a futile topic.

 

Speaking of futility: Years of futility with last gasp runs to get that "winning feeling" for next year, have shown us that whatever the effect of that is, it hasn't worked so far.

 

Still the mood is 'so you're saying there's a chance'. Fine. But I'm looking more at what this recent stretch tells us about next year's team.

 

So here's why maybe this time might be different: and this playing well at the end might carry over better than it has in the past:

 

This is a very young team trying to find itself. It had a nice run for a stretch, but lost it's mojo, and floundered. This run shows it can get it back and play a good team game. Maybe that sticks more than winning late has in the past. The team has gotten back to the system and is producing better chances.

 

But mainly, what we are seeing from key players on the ice:

 

1. Lindholm. This #5 overall pick seems to be putting the pieces together. The production has been phenomenal lately. Yes, it is all assists, but they are key primary assists. I would argue that he has more goals in him too. If he keeps this up next year, that is like adding a player.

 

2. Hanifin: Maybe I'm seeing things, but he is playing better and better. If he had stayed in College two more years and arrived on the scene like Slavin, next year, we'd all be singing his praises. But we've watched his struggles, so it's harder to realize that he is vastly improving. All signs are that next year and beyond, he just keeps getting better.

 

3. Slavin: Wow. This guy just makes plays all night every night. Has become one of, if not the most untouchable guys on the team.

 

4. Pesce: See Slavin, but his plays are more subtle. Since he's a RHD, we really need him if we were to move any other RHD.

 

5. Skinner. The guy is going to bust 30 goals. We need goals. He is figuring his unique and special game out a bit better all the time. He basically needs to get inside the dots, and is back to doing that again.

 

6. Teravainen: there is a known trend for even veteran players to take up to a full season to adjust to their new team. TT is still a very young guy, well below his peak years. But he has looked much better in this recent run. The skill has always been on display, but he is playing better overall too. He has 9 points in his last 13.

 

7. Aho: Aho has been a remarkably consistent point producer all year, but went a long time before the goals started coming in bunches. He is on a ppg pace over the past 8 games. There is no real reason to think this kid will have a sophomore slump. He is going to end up close to 50 points at 19. The sky's the limit next year.

 

8. Rask. Rask, disappeared for a long stretch this year. But he started on fire, and is finishing pretty strong. He has 10 points in his last 15 games (about a 55 point pace). I personally think adding another center would push Rask and Staal to 2b and 2c and make us very strong down the middle. He is going to finish close to 50 points. That would be stellar for a third line center.


I want to add that I personally think the jury is out on Rask as a 1C. He was not that this year. But if we got a 1C, it might take some pressure off of Rask, but on this team he'll still end up with good wingers on the 2b line, and 50 points from there is off the hook.

 

9. All prospects in waiting. We have more high end prospects in waiting than ever before. Not really a part of the end of this year, but worth noting. It would not be impossible for a guy with no NHL games to contribute next year: Gauthier, Roy, Fleury, and more.

 

What this run suggests is that the list of players above, all well under the peak age for their positions, will be better next year, and have learned to play together. It is reasonable to expect improvement from every one of those young players mentioned above.

 

There are other guys, but those guys are all sub prime, some by a lot. The trend should be up for all of them.

 

Two last points, the team does seem to be gelling to have each other's back more physically too. and is doing a bit better getting to the net. This is also a good thing to carry forward.

 

I still think we need more total goals next year. This team may be able to generate them, but I think one proven producer would make a huge stride forward there. Add 30 goals from one guy to this base of improving young players and we should have enough goals for.

 

That, to me is a strong base for GMRF to make a couple of key moves. If he can find a way to leverage a bunch of picks and defensive prospects or a player to get one more forward, ideally a 1C. And do something about goal, I think the rest of the team, and upcoming prospects can get it done over the next few years.

 

Edited by remkin
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Agree Lake. To me this is the offseason for Francis to go for a couple of big moves. He's been masterful with the smaller ones.

 

My condensed take: the reemergence of this team, and especially key young players, points to the idea that the base of guys is solid and will improve. The cold streak put some real doubt out there about that. I still think we need to add one key forward (has to be a goal producer) and a goalie. But the rest of the pieces are mostly there. The "perennial cup contender" has to eventually have top line skill in key positions. The only question is will we have enough of that up front?

 

I say not to leave that to chance. Use what assets we have, overpay a bit if we have to, and bring that forward skill in to go with what we have. Also, if we can trade up in the draft we can get that skill there too, even if it takes a couple of years for that guy to be ready, and finally we have a few guys in waiting that might be pretty dang good, especially Gauthier and Roy, but there are a few others in waiting too (see in the Canes System).

Edited by remkin

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My take is simple.  The core is there.  While we wish we had greater talent across the board always, we have something we can work with.   We need 2 more things.  A captain (scoring forward with veteran level leadership qualities) and a goalie.  If the scoring forward we add does not have the character to be a captain, I don't want him.  An alternative to him being captain is to have him be at least a veteran presence that could be a captain, and we make Slavin captain.  

 

The other guys have had their chance to grab the bull by the horns and decided to pass imho.

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I do wonder about Jordan and the Captaincy. I get that he is understated and maybe not ideal from that point of view, but I also wonder how much of this is that the brass simply did not want another Staal as Captain, at least not right away, but giving it to someone else, with Jordan the obvious heir apparent, might miff Jordan. No inside info, just pure speculation. It's too bad in a way because Jordan has lifted the team on his back on the ice over stretches. Maybe he doesn't want it. I don't know.

 

Tripp mentioned Lindholm as a candidate to move into more of a leadership role last night.

 

 

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On the captain thing, there isn't a likely one in the room or we would have seen "it".  RF needs to acquire a player with "it".

 

needs

1. player X with "it"

2. Goaltending answer

3. 1C

4. Power forward

 

Need #1 can be combined with 3 or 4.

 

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I read on another site that Tavares may be pondering his future on NYI team,vs chances for playoffs? Wonder if he's at that point, if our team's mounting successes and outlook could be an attraction? I personally would love to see Tavares in the Sightless Eye?

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

Tripp mentioned Lindholm as a candidate to move into more of a leadership role last night.

 

I think this is a real possibility. I haven't always been kind to Lindy but I could see him growing into a leadership role in the mode of a Ron Francis captaincy. Let us not forget the emergence of  Slavin  in a leadership role.

 

I don't want to see Skinner as captain. Give him an A, point him to the ice and let him score goals.  He already has to carry the teams in scoring lets not muck it up with added responsibility.  (tongue in cheek...sort off)

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