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In-Season Talk 2016-17

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Ryan.  D. Ryan. The Doctor.  I just have to say he's done a pretty good job.  Nothing more nothing less but he's been pretty good if you ask me with expectations being what they are.

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I agree on Ryan. Like a lot of guys he went cold for a while, but a phenomenal start and has gotten back to very good.

 

As to Lindholm, he is a potential major star and this could be huge. He is playing with huge confidence. His game has been coming on all year, but the points started after November. The assists have been rolling in for the past 4 months, but the goals have now started coming in March.

 

To give an idea of how good he could be next year: Think superstar.

 

If he keeps the assists at the rate they are for the year (which includes 22 game very slow start) and goals at the rate he has them in March, and plays 80 games. He would have 30 goals and 40 assists for 70 points. Last year that would have made him the #14 forward in points, tied with Tavares and Backstrom, and one less than Ovechkin. But he's probably not a 30 goal guy. But he absolutely is a 20 goal guy so....

 

If he keeps the assists at the rate they have been for the past 4 months, and hits 20 goals (less than his March pace, and he's hit 19 twice already) and plays 80 games he will hit 70 points that way too.

 

And this is not the ceiling. This is just projecting his assists for 4 most recent months, and goal production from the past.

 

Lindholm's offensive production basically took the first two months off (7 points in 22 games). But even with that included, here our our forwards for the year in points per game:

 

Skinner .75

Lindholm .66 (last 4 months: .84)

Aho .63

Staal .63

Rask .57

TT .52

Stempniak: .50

Ryan .45

McGinn .28

PDG .21

Nordstrom .15

McClement .12

 

 

I really do think Lindholm can play center. I wish Peters would keep him there for the rest of the year. He is #7 on the team in plus minus, he hits, he can play down low and he feeds guys like crazy. And if he is putting up 70 plus points he is a 1C.

 

This means we can go get a winger instead of a 1C.

 

To humor Top, maybe Landeskog. The guy is simply having a terrible year on the heels of a not great year. This could lower his trade price (maybe don't have to give up a Faulk or Hanfin) making him more of a Francis type target. And this is  24 yo guy who averaged 62 points the two previous years. A change of scenery, and woah. We know Aho should improve, and I think TT and Rask too based on age and comfort and more recent production.

 

If Landeskog got back to 60 points, (or some other guy), and Lindholm does even most of what I'm projecting, and Aho. bumps up a touch, we would have FOUR 60 plus point guys, plus J Staal, Rask, and TT all can hit 50, and Stemper 40. That is enough to get it done.

 

Edited by remkin

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Lets let the eggs hatch 1st, before we go start counting our chickens rem, haha!! Seriously, thats where our boat sunk on the way to "the island" not too many years ago?

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

If Landeskog got back to 60 points, (or some other guy), and Lindholm does even most of what I'm projecting, and Aho. bumps up a touch, we would have FOUR 60 plus point guys, plus J Staal, Rask, and TT all can hit 50, and Stemper 40. That is enough to get it done.

 

Is that all? Well, should be a piece of cake then...

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Agree Lindy benefitted from playing with Staal, but I think it worked both ways. Lindy is so strong on Staal's off-side that when he (L) began contributing at the dot, it took pressure off Jordan, and that line took off. Now that we've got a host of guys with center chops/potential, I think Jordan has settled into the game we all know he can play: consistent, D-first, opportunistic on the O side.  

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Well- after tonight we will either still be hoping or wishes dashed.  Gotta have the win and regulation losses by those "other guys".  Statistically speaking odds are slim but that is no new revelation.   I prefer "oddball" mentality myself.  coastal_caniac

Edited by cc

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12 hours ago, remkin said:

I agree on Ryan. Like a lot of guys he went cold for a while, but a phenomenal start and has gotten back to very good.

 

As to Lindholm, he is a potential major star and this could be huge. He is playing with huge confidence. His game has been coming on all year, but the points started after November. The assists have been rolling in for the past 4 months, but the goals have now started coming in March.

 

To give an idea of how good he could be next year: Think superstar.

 

If he keeps the assists at the rate they are for the year (which includes 22 game very slow start) and goals at the rate he has them in March, and plays 80 games. He would have 30 goals and 40 assists for 70 points. Last year that would have made him the #14 forward in points, tied with Tavares and Backstrom, and one less than Ovechkin. But he's probably not a 30 goal guy. But he absolutely is a 20 goal guy so....

 

If he keeps the assists at the rate they have been for the past 4 months, and hits 20 goals (less than his March pace, and he's hit 19 twice already) and plays 80 games he will hit 70 points that way too.

 

And this is not the ceiling. This is just projecting his assists for 4 most recent months, and goal production from the past.

 

Lindholm's offensive production basically took the first two months off (7 points in 22 games). But even with that included, here our our forwards for the year in points per game:

 

Skinner .75

Lindholm .66 (last 4 months: .84)

Aho .63

Staal .63

Rask .57

TT .52

Stempniak: .50

Ryan .45

McGinn .28

PDG .21

Nordstrom .15

McClement .12

 

 

I really do think Lindholm can play center. I wish Peters would keep him there for the rest of the year. He is #7 on the team in plus minus, he hits, he can play down low and he feeds guys like crazy. And if he is putting up 70 plus points he is a 1C.

 

This means we can go get a winger instead of a 1C.

 

To humor Top, maybe Landeskog. The guy is simply having a terrible year on the heels of a not great year. This could lower his trade price (maybe don't have to give up a Faulk or Hanfin) making him more of a Francis type target. And this is  24 yo guy who averaged 62 points the two previous years. A change of scenery, and woah. We know Aho should improve, and I think TT and Rask too based on age and comfort and more recent production.

 

If Landeskog got back to 60 points, (or some other guy), and Lindholm does even most of what I'm projecting, and Aho. bumps up a touch, we would have FOUR 60 plus point guys, plus J Staal, Rask, and TT all can hit 50, and Stemper 40. That is enough to get it done.

 

 

I'm starting to come around to the school of thought that it is such a monumental task to wrestle a 1C from a team that going for Lande and a premium goalie should be the goal, and if a 1C opportunity presents itself then take it but it seems to be a near impossible task.   I would go for a couple of wingers, and we all know I want my banger. Everyone can note our results lately playing a more physical game.  I really had wished we had gone for Lucic, for example.  Someone like that.

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13 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Is that all? Well, should be a piece of cake then...

 

I agree that guys don't always live up to their projections. Heck, they often don't. But which one do you specifically think is so off?

 

Skinner is already on a 60 point pace.

Landeskog has put up essentially 60 points in two previous consecutive years, has been weighed down as Captain of an astoundingly awful team this year.

Aho is on a 51 point pace as a 19 year old, and can put up 9 more assists, and didn't even start getting goals for close to 20 games this year.

Rask is on pace for 47 points even taking the middle of the year off.

Jordan is already on a 51 point pace, and had an 80 point pace for about 3 months last year.

TT is on a 43 point pace, but has picked it way up at the end.

Stempniak is on a 42 point pace now.

 

But Lindy. Lindholm has maintained a 72 point pace for 4 months now, and only this month did the goals start coming. To be honest 70 points is not his ceiling IMHO.

 

The biggest threat to people hitting those numbers is not the numbers, but staying healthy for 80 games. That many guys won't miss only two games, so it becomes a matter of getting it done in fewer games. But this year guys are mostly close enough to hit the targets.

 

But even if a couple of guys fall off that pace, we'll have way more goals than this year.

 

Our recent run has been evidence of the power of more goal scoring, and has pushed our "goals for" to within 10 of the cut line. We are that close to making it.

 

But there were two main points of my post, more than the projecting all of those guys, they are:

 

1. Lindholm is already better than most probably have him in their minds.

2. This fact along with the rest of the team finding it's game, means we really are potentially ONE guy away (especially if we table the goalie issue).

 

That would be my point to Francis. If you can move picks and prospects, even a bunch of them, for Landeskog, then we lose no one from the current team. Thus Landeskog would be a pure addition. There is risk in his case, that his game has struggled for more innate reasons than a terrible environment. (I've heard injury, playing different post concussion, etc). But if his recent drop makes him gettable for a package of picks and prospects? And a change in scenery does it's job? Landeskog can put up 60 points.

 

But even if it's not Landeskog, it could be a different winger. Try to get that one more guy somehow, because we are that close.

 

Edited by remkin

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14 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Lets let the eggs hatch 1st, before we go start counting our chickens rem, haha!! Seriously, thats where our boat sunk on the way to "the island" not too many years ago?

 

When I stop counting unhatched eggs at this point in our cycle, then it's a dark day indeed! If that happens, move over BD58, I'm on my way.

 

But I like playing GM, and the GM has to project in order to figure out how to improve the team. Francis has to project to get to a point where he thinks he's one piece away.

 

My main argument is that the arrival of Lindholm (not being fully appreciated IMHO), along with the steady production of other key guys, and a solid, improving defense, puts us there next year.

 

If one really wanted to buy my premise fully, we could make NO moves next year. Just go with the group. But this is where reality hits the rosy projections. Someone will fall short, someone might get injured, etc. This is why we need to add one more piece.

 

So I am projecting a possible, but close to best case scenario in terms of total points from those guys. Adding one more high end piece is the insurance.

Edited by remkin

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8 minutes ago, remkin said:

But which one do you specifically think is so off?

 

It's not any one of them that seems unreasonable or unattainable, it's the combination of all of them hitting at the same time that is what is unreasonable. It's why lottery numbers are hard to pick. One out of 50 is not bad odds, but one out of 50 six times in a row is why I don't win. 

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Just now, MinJaBen said:

 

It's not any one of them that seems unreasonable or unattainable, it's the combination of all of them hitting at the same time that is what is unreasonable. It's why lottery numbers are hard to pick. One out of 50 is not bad odds, but one out of 50 six times in a row is why I don't win. 

 

I actually agree and posted it in both of my posts above. That is a fair point, and why I think one more piece.  Someone probably misses. The counter argument is that someone not on that list could surprise: Ryan, McGinn, PDG, Gauthier, Zykov, Poturalski, Wallmark, etc.

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31 minutes ago, remkin said:

My main argument is that the arrival of Lindholm (not being fully appreciated IMHO), along with the steady production of other key guys, and a solid, improving defense, puts us there next year.

 

Sounds to me like Remkin is getting the ferry dock opened!   Should be a nice summer project.  May need to blow off a lot of dust and crud, though.

Edited by wxray1

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If the island is to re-open, the team needs some depth.

 

We are speculating that Rask has an injury (shoulder?), and of course we know about Eddie's problems, but overall, this team has been injury free.  Just look at what an un-injured Aho, Skinner, Slavic and Lindholm have done!  Lost in the noise about Lindy's emergence is the fact he started his career with what I think was a worse injury than what was exposed.  I think this did him no favors at all.

 

Anyway, my point is we are a Stamkos injury away from real problems without any depth.  Look at what the Penguins are doing with a hammered roster.  They've been able to make up for defensive devastation with offensive and goalie depth.

 

And I mentioned Stamkos on purpose.  Tampa Bay was projected by many to be top in the East.  Here they are struggling for their life.

 

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48 minutes ago, remkin said:

 

When I stop counting unhatched eggs at this point in our cycle, then it's a dark day indeed! If that happens, move over BD58, I'm on my way.

 

But I like playing GM, and the GM has to project in order to figure out how to improve the team. Francis has to project to get to a point where he thinks he's one piece away.

 

My main argument is that the arrival of Lindholm (not being fully appreciated IMHO), along with the steady production of other key guys, and a solid, improving defense, puts us there next year.

 

If one really wanted to buy my premise fully, we could make NO moves next year. Just go with the group. But this is where reality hits the rosy projections. Someone will fall short, someone might get injured, etc. This is why we need to add one more piece.

 

So I am projecting a possible, but close to best case scenario in terms of total points from those guys. Adding one more high end piece is the insurance.

rem, despite my cynicism, I'm right there with you although it doesn't sound so. What creeps into my mind is the old addage, "once bitten, twice shy". Seems we, as long time Hurricanes' fan have suffered this indignity too often since 05-06. And I agree with subsequent posters, this team has been extremely fortunate on the injury front. Because we appear to have a very thin line still, between post season games and golf, I just do not want my hopes dashed by another under performing team effort., optimistic as I might be going forward.

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5 hours ago, ironman87 said:

BTW - anyone notice that Slavin is in the top-20 league-wide in +/- (+22).  For a team with a -13 goal differential that is amazing to me.

 

I was going to post this last night but was too tired, glad you put it out there. Slavin is a beast. 

 

Nice to to see Lindholm getting some love as well. He's good on the PP, he's good on the PK, and he's good 5 on 5. I think he's finally feeling like he belongs and is playing with an edge. The fact that his annual cap hit is 2.75 million per year is nice as well, and I think a lot of people forget that.

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59 minutes ago, Kyrule said:

The fact that his annual cap hit is 2.75 million per year is nice as well, and I think a lot of people forget that.

And his age. He's four months past 22 .You could just sense his frustration in the first half, but something good happened for him mentally during that 10-game absence due to injury, he got new perspective from the press box or something. The turnaround has been fun to watch.

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54 minutes ago, Kyrule said:

 

I was going to post this last night but was too tired, glad you put it out there. Slavin is a beast. 

. . .

I used those exact words over on an Avs fan forum when some of them were penciling Slavin into trades and I had to let them know that he wasn't available.:tsktsk: 

 

The reason I'm commenting on it now is that the term made me think about Slavin's style of play.  Because if you haven't actually seen Slavin play, and you hear "he's a beast", you probably think hard hitting and overly physical.  But that's not him at all.  He's got great positioning, a fantastic stick, and he just doesn't let 'em do what they want to do.  If I had to describe his style of play, rather than "beast" I'd probably use the term "pest" or "pain in the @$&" lol.  And he's that to the extent that he is actually a beast.      

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What a game! Rem's island is still out there, albeit with a rickety one way bridge to get on, but still. This team has grown so much. They are finding ways to come back in the 3rd period, and Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm, and really a lot of other guys are showing what they can do. Will we make the playoffs? Probably not. Will this confidence developed over the last 13 games carry over to next year? We'll see. But tonight's game felt like a playoff game against the 2nd highest team by points in the league. At least on tv, it looked like a good crowd, and they were loud. All positives, and I feel more than ever that we have turned a corner.  I'm not giving up until we are mathematically eliminated, and more important neither is the team. GO CANES!!!

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Guys, those two 5-game losing streaks in Jan and Feb are going to haunt us if Toronto AND Tampa don't go on some serious losing streaks from here on out.  Boston will make it, they have too many home games remaining.  At this point, all signs point to the game in Pitt as our make/break game...we keep the streak going into whatever stupid name they call that arena nowadays on Sunday and pull out the W, then we have a SERIOUS chance of making it (going to Minnie notwithstanding).  Lose that game, and I fear the air comes out of the balloon.

 

Praying for a miracle, but not expecting it to happen...

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