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Mr. Francis

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2 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

What I think, is that PK finally realized that the team needed to go through the rebuild that should have started in about 2011. 

 

1 hour ago, remkin said:

Francis has very deliberately stuck to the plan so far, but I personally feel that he needs to make a bigger move before the start of next season.

 

58 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

I think RF should have a bargaining chip with PK as well since we hit the wall and slid to the bottom. It should signal that we have the orchestra and that we need the conductor.

 

Together, these quotes neatly summarize what RF has said all along: This is a five-year process. 

 

Taking that a step further, it's only reasonable to think that when he took the reins, RF consulted heavily with PK about what he'd have to work with money-wise, with a special focus on the period we're in right now, when the re$ource$  being drained by Eric's and Cam's deals was no longer an issue. So what happens exactly eight days before those contracts expire?

 

BOOM. EXPANSION. Hold everything.

 

It's also reasonable to think that when a coach of BP's pedigree (read: Detroit) showed up for his second interview with a PowerPoint, that PK, if not sitting in on the interview, was at least copied on the presentation after the fact, and bought in to what had become BP's and RF's vision.

 

I get that people are disappointed about not getting in this season. Hell, I'm at the front of that parade. But I'm not going to let that disappointment blind me to the realities RF inherited, or let it convince me that the "smart" course was to win at all costs in the short term. I also get that some think doing just that was the smart course, because a "winner" would have upped ticket sales and increased revenue.

 

But I have to assume that this was exactly the fulcrum on which the initial discussions between RF and PK rested. We can critique PK's ownership of this team however we like, but one thing's for sure: He's a wildly successful businessman who has made more money in his lifetime than most of us will even see. A guy like that, paired with a very deliberate, reasonable guy with a history of knowing what it takes to win, were not going to enter that collaboration without a plan that took every contingency into account.

 

At the end of last season, pretty much everyone here agreed with BP's assessment that we were "ahead of schedule," thanks largely to the unexpected rise of Pesce and Slavin. Then expansion was confirmed and we were suddenly right back on schedule, through no fault of our own. We entered a holding pattern, and RF (wisely, IMO) opted replace the parts that were obviously not going to make the long-term roster, and to add only enough pieces with high-percentage odds of making it that knowing whom to protect this summer was easy. He sought a protectable piece for the crease too, but after making the calls and exploring his options, he saw no move that made sense in terms of the cost. Good on him for exercising restraint--a word JR would need a dictionary to even begin to grasp--and giving himself another year to build assets.

 

We're about to see the difference that Ronnie's measured, long-term approach has made. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow--but before the puck drops on 2017-18. I can't wait to watch it happen.        

Edited by top-shelf-1

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6 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

It's also a business.  It's Peter Karmanos' business.  If he is satisfied with the results, then it doesn't matter what we think.

 

What I think, is that PK finally realized that the team needed to go through the rebuild that should have started in about 2011.  He caused me a lot of heartburn a few years ago when he said in an interview that the fans were going to need to be more patient (I lost my #$%@ when he said that).  He was right.  While JR was rubbing in ointment and moving deck chairs, this team needed an enema. 

 

One way to be competitive is to spend.  If this team, for whatever reasons, is not going to be able to spend its way to prosperity, then the GM is going to have to come up with another way.  Years ago, Billy Bean did it in baseball with the Oakland A's.  I think RF is doing the "something different" that he has to do to make this work long term.  He is building a foundation for future prosperity.  Attendance has reached a low water mark and if PK can stand that for a few years while the pot simmers, then that is a business decision.

 

Is this rose colored glasses?  I don't know, but it is the view I get from the cheap seats.

Just to set the record straight, Billy Beane has been in the FO of the A's for 24 years, and may well be the most overrated executive in the history of the sport (maybe any sport).  His teams have won exactly ONE playoff series in that time period (24 years!!!), with no World Series appearances.  If the goal is to win the World Series (which should be the goal of every Major League GM), then under no circumstances could Beane be considered successful.   Moneyball, despite the reputation,  has been a near total failure in Major League baseball.  Last year, two teams (of 15) in the bottom half of payroll had better than a .500 record..the Indians and the Astros.  And only the Indians went to the playoffs.  Nine of 10 teams that went to the playoffs were in the top half of payroll.  Coincidence?  I think not as the evidence powerfully argues otherwise. 

 

But I agree it really does not matter what the fans think.  If Karamanos is happy with results (and Lord help us if he is), then expect to see more of the same.

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9 minutes ago, Bigfist said:

Just to set the record straight, Billy Beane has been in the FO of the A's for 24 years, and may well be the most overrated executive in the history of the sport (maybe any sport).  His teams have won exactly ONE playoff series in that time period (24 years!!!), with no World Series appearances.  If the goal is to win the World Series (which should be the goal of every Major League GM), then under no circumstances could Beane be considered successful.   Moneyball, despite the reputation,  has been a near total failure in Major League baseball.  Last year, two teams (of 15) in the bottom half of payroll had better than a .500 record..the Indians and the Astros.  And only the Indians went to the playoffs.  Nine of 10 teams that went to the playoffs were in the top half of payroll.  Coincidence?  I think not as the evidence powerfully argues otherwise. 

 

But I agree it really does not matter what the fans think.  If Karamanos is happy with results (and Lord help us if he is), then expect to see more of the same.

 

Thanks for pointing out my ignorance.  

 

However, if you read my post, you will see that I said RF is trying to do it a different way than throwing tons of money at the problem...not that he was trying to replicate exactly what Beane had done.  Beane tried something different because his owner was not going to open up the check book.  That was the point.

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My lunch buddy and I have been calling the RF style "Moneypuck" for the past 3 years.  SD's observation was on point as to the apparent strategy.

 

I would much rather go Steinbrenner style but PK does not appear to own any shipyards.  Not to mention that salary cap management issues are very different than MLB anyway.

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Why bring Billy Beane into it at all then??  I am guessing because the average fan thinks somehow that Beane found the Holy Grail, which, as I pointed out, is far from the truth.  Except for pro football, money is what matters in every sport.  Hell, the NBA has a so called salary cap, which the good teams generally ignore by paying a luxury tax,  Look at the Cleveland Cavaliers as the prime example.

 

But if you are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, good luck.  It happens every 20 years or so.  

 

 

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17 hours ago, Bigfist said:

Just to set the record straight, Billy Beane has been in the FO of the A's for 24 years, and may well be the most overrated executive in the history of the sport (maybe any sport).  His teams have won exactly ONE playoff series in that time period (24 years!!!), with no World Series appearances.  If the goal is to win the World Series (which should be the goal of every Major League GM), then under no circumstances could Beane be considered successful.   Moneyball, despite the reputation,  has been a near total failure in Major League baseball.  Last year, two teams (of 15) in the bottom half of payroll had better than a .500 record..the Indians and the Astros.  And only the Indians went to the playoffs.  Nine of 10 teams that went to the playoffs were in the top half of payroll.  Coincidence?  I think not as the evidence powerfully argues otherwise. 

 

But I agree it really does not matter what the fans think.  If Karamanos is happy with results (and Lord help us if he is), then expect to see more of the same.

Actually what happened is the "big spenders" starting using the sabermetrics also- thus taking any advantage "money ball" had away- theo Epstein at both boston and cubs shows what happens when use both money and sabermetrics..When you can afford to keep the stars AND still use value its hard to beat.."moneyball" isn't a secret anymore and i'd call that a bad example- especially in baseball where there is no hard cap to limit the spending or really hurt a team that mistakenly overpays and has to carry the burden of the contract in a hard cap league like football orhockey

Edited by canes2017
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Let's be honest here....Epstein has been using a lot more money than he has been using sabremetrics. But that is exactly my point.  To win in any sport, you had better be prepared to pay.  If not, then you can pretty much forget about it.  Billy Beane may be a genius, but his teams won nothing because, in fact, they have remained a low salary team.  Money dwarfs sabremetrics in any sport.  

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