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remkin

NHL Draft 2017 Talk

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Well it's that time again in CaniacLand. As others prepare for the playoffs or at least try to get in, we cast our gaze towards hope. Hope for next year. And that means the NHL draft.

 

So here is a place to discuss said draft. And below are a bunch of resources for those interested in digging deep.

 

It's worth pointing out that rankings and mock drafts will change. The general flavor of the order will remain, but a few key guys will rise or fall and some by a lot. One of the interesting things will be watching those guys.

 

The other thing about this draft is that the evolution to a "tank-busting" lottery is complete (for now at least). The top 3 picks will all be lottery determined with descending odds as teams go down the standings and up the draft board. This will create variable odds of being pushed down 1, 2, or 3 slots due to teams below us winning draft slots. The effect of this is less the lower we pick.

 

The OTHER other thing is that Vegas is slotted in the #3 slot pre draft. They have the odds of the #3 team, but also will pick as though they are the #3 team pre-draft: ie: if they do not win a lottery pick, they WILL pick in line after the top 2 teams if they also lose the lottery. The bottom line is that Vegas will pick 1,2,3,4, 5 or 6 depending on the lottery results. This matters for us in two ways. Mainly it will push us down a slot from where we'd have picked any other year. Two, they might be a decent trade partner in a move up.

 

I am interested in this process. I find that as I familiarize myself with, especially the guys in the top half of the draft, it is interesting when they start making their mark in the NHL, even if it's on other teams.

 

Anyhoo, this draft is pegged as being weak. There is no obvious generational talent at the top and while the top few guys are still going to be very good, there is less agreement after that. Also, it is felt to not represent a deep draft. Last year, and the previous year, it was felt that good picks could be had in the top 40 or so. This year, not so much. This of course does not mean that there are not good picks, but that there is little consensus on who they are. They will be harder to find.

 

On the good side of the "harder to peg, weak draft", GM's might be more wiling to trade up or down, both of which could work. On the bad side all of those lower round picks Francis has been accumulating will have less value.

 

We are going to either win a lottery top 3 pick, or pick 8-14* unless we trade up or down. Generally those trades are rare. I've been waiting for us to trade up or down for years now. Never seems to happen. Maybe this is the year. Anyway, as games roll on, we can narrow that 8-14 a bit.

 

* rationale discussed in the trade thread, but this is also confirmed by sportsclubstats (see link below).

 

*Caveat: the lottery will change things. If we end up slotted 13 there is a chance that a team bellow us wins a lottery pick (26%) in the three rounds, pushing us to #14. The odds of two lower teams winning is around 1/80, so that is a very long shot. Thus, technically, we could pick 8-14, or 1-3.  Baring a major calamity at the lottery, or a down trade, the worst we will pick is #14.

 

As of this moment we sit in the 10 slot, with a 4.5% shot at #1 and an 14.5% shot at 1, 2, or 3, and roughly a 35% chance of being pushed down, and a 49.5% chance of picking in the 10 slot. So a 50-50 chance of moving up or down, with down twice as likely.

 

Our picks:

 

                                         1st    2nd                    3rd                        4th   5th     6th  7th

Carolina Hurricanes Carolina-97-pres.gif Carolina-97-pres.gifNY-Rangers-78-pres.gifPittsburgh-00-pres.gif Carolina-97-pres.gifOttawa-07-pres.gifNew-Jersey-92-pres.gif* Carolina-97-pres.gif Boston-07-pres.gif Carolina-97-pres.gif Carolina-97-pres.gif

 

 

 

If you like following our lottery position and the odds for all lottery teams, this is a good link:

 

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

and here:

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

When I read about guys likely to be there at 8-13, (especially if you assume a couple of Dmen going above us), I still get excited. For a weak draft there are a lot of guys with really nice sounding scouting write ups in there. We really could still get a good player there.

 

Looking at the combined rankings listed below, there are only two D men slated for the top 14. Ironically, in my math #14 is our worst case scenario, and it's all forwards until #15. This is good overall. Also, a team that might want D might jump the gun and pick a guy lower on the board leaving a guy for us, or be willing to trade down to get to the pack of D men after Liljgren and Makar.

 

So discuss away!!

 

So, here are some resources:

 

If you want to hypothesize and think about trades to move up and down the draft, this article contains a classic table for a point system of what it should cost to move from A to B. (Created by our own analytic expert and all around math genius, Eric Tulsky).

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

 

Mock Draft Database:

http://letsgoredskins.com/NHLMocks.htm

Yes, it says redskins, but this is the DC sports data base of old. It is usually pretty good. It focuses on the top 6, BUT if you click on the mock draft, you go to it, where you can find good stuff.

 

This is a CanesCountry Take on some of the key forwards in our range:

http://www.canescountry.com/2017/3/15/14923544/2017-nhl-draft-preview-meet-the-prospects-forwards-casey-mittelstadt-michael-rasmussen-cody-glass

 

This is NHL.com's rankings of the prospects:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectbrowse.htm

 

This is the ISS rankings of the top prospects:

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-31/

 

This is a consensus of various rankings compiled. This is as of February.

 

(Note Cody Glass is a great example of how things will change. Look for the next rankings to have him MUCH higher).

 

Consensus Rankings

Rank Player Pos. Team ISS Marek McKenzie Button HP FC
1 Nolan Patrick C Brandon (WHL) 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Nico Hischier C Halifax (QMJHL) 3 3 2 2 2 4
3 Timothy Lijlgren D Rogle BK (SHL) 2 2 3 3 7 2
4 Gabriel Vilardi C Windsor (OHL) 5 5 4 5 5 5
5 Casey Mittelstadt C Green Bay (USHL) 6 8 5 10 3 3
6 Owen Tippett RW Mississauga (OHL) 4 6 6 6 12 6
7 Eeli Tolvanen LW Sioux City (USHL) 10 4 9 8 14 7
8 Martin Necas C HC Kometa Brno (Extraliga) 18 10 8 4 6 23
9 Michael Rasmussen C Tri-City (WHL) 7 11 7 11 15 20
10 Cale Makar D Brooks (AJHL) 13 12 12 13 8 18
11 Lias Andersson C HV71 (SHL) 25 14 15 9 11 10
12 Klim Kostin RW Dynamo Balashikha (VHL) 9 7 10 25 24 12
13 Elias Pettersson C Timra IK (Allsvenskan) 21   11 15 4 8
14 Ryan Poehling C St. Cloud State (NCAA) 15 23 17 7 20 17
15 Miro Heiskanen D HIFK (SM-Liiga)   18 13 14 9 16
16 Cal Foote D Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 8 19 18 23 13 22
17 Nic Hague D Mississauga (OHL) 12 9 21 31 21 9
18 Juuso Valimaki D Tri-City (WHL) 11 13 16 21   13
19 Cody Glass C Portland (WHL) 14 16 14 16 19 30
20 Maxime Comtois LW Victoriaville (QMJHL) 17 15 22 29 18 11
21 Kailer Yamamoto C Spokane (WHL)   22 23 12 22 14
22 Shane Bowers C Waterloo (USHL) 24 24 20 18 16  
23 Kristian Vesalainen D Frolunda HC (SHL) 29 17 19 28 30 15
24 Matthew Strome LW Hamilton (OHL) 20 27 29 20 28 19
25 Nick Suzuki C Owen Sound (OHL) 27 25 27 17 26 21
26 Nikita Popugaev RW Prince George (WHL) 16 29 26 24 23  
27 Urho Vaakanainen D JYP (SM-Liiga) 23 21 24   25 27
28 Isaac Ratcliffe LW Guelph (OHL)     28   10 29
29 Alexei Lipanov C Dynamo Balashikha (VHL)       19 17  
30 Marcus Davidsson C Djurgardens IF (SHL)   30   30 27 24
31 Erik Branstrom D HV71 (SHL)   20        

 

Edited by remkin

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I guess my only complaint with this ranking list is that height is not mentioned.  For myself and several others on here, that is the deciding factor.  Rasmussen would be my choice.  Big 6.6 center sounds perfect to compliment Roy down the road for our possible 1,2,3 center combo with Rask.  It better be a center although there are some very attractive BIG left wingers.  it better not be a d man.

Edited by bluedevil58

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47 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

I guess my only complaint with this ranking list is that height is not mentioned.  For myself and several others on here, that is the deciding factor.

 

That's because its a big compilation. Click on the ISS link for all your height and weight needs.

 

But as a general rule, all the forwards are 6'1" or bigger except Tolvanen, and the monster is Rasmussen at 6'6".

Edited by remkin

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Cody Glass will be top 10 by the draft day. Also, in our range (say 8-11), I'd love for Mittelstadt to fall to us, but I feel he is almost sure to go the pick before us...what ever that pick is. He reminds me very much of Jost last year: very talented, but gets unfairly knocked due to playing in a lower competitive tier for most of the year for personal reasons. He will continue to rise up until the draft day, like Jost did, though he has a shorter distance to go before he runs into the top of his tier. He won't challenge for one of the top two picks, but I'd take him 3OA if we had that pick.

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Cody Glass is definitely a fast riser in the rankings. Another name to throw out there is Micheal Rassmusen. He is also rising. One write up mentioned that he has been whispered to have a chance of going #1 overall. He is 6-6 215, but has skills and can skate and goes to the net, but has hands there. (Like Gauthier). He's over a ppg.

 

Rassmusen's size will likely push him out of our range, but on the downside for him, but possibly to our advantage, he has a wrist injury that will keep him out basically until the draft.

 

When I think of him, Roy and Guathier, to go with Jordan Staal, we could be a big, skilled heavier team in short time giving us nice balance with our smaller skilled guys like Aho, Skinner, TT.

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Thank you for all the info Rem.  A lot of work went into this.

 

I look forward to the day when we don't discuss this stuff until after April.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

Another name to throw out there is Micheal Rassmusen. He is also rising. One write up mentioned that he has been whispered to have a chance of going #1 overall.

 

If he goes #1 overall, I'll eat my hat. Most of those points he gets are on the PP. He is much less effective 5v5. Someone else can have him as far as I'm concerned.

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1 hour ago, MinJaBen said:

 

If he goes #1 overall, I'll eat my hat. Most of those points he gets are on the PP. He is much less effective 5v5. Someone else can have him as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah none of the combined rankings have him anywhere near #1. That said, size rules more than it probably should and big centers that go to the net and have hands (note what J. Staal does not have, and he went #2) tend to be rated highly by GMs.

 

The Kimmelman and Morreale Mocks both put him at #5.

 

He might have moved up more (like another huge center, Logan Brown, did last year) but his injury will keep him out, and probably keep him from a late move.

 

In a way, we have a guy a bit like this in Roy. And it's not like the other guys on the list are small either. Personally I'm far from settled on who to get, except I think the guy needs to have goal scoring chops. Even if he's a nice playmaker, we need someone with an NHL shot.

Edited by remkin

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15 minutes ago, remkin said:

Even if he's a nice playmaker, we need someone with an NHL shot.

 

Then take Tippett. Not a center but the kid shoots it well.

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20 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

But do you package a guy like Bean or Fleury with the Canes #1 this year to jump way up?

super dave, I'm late to the party on this, and I apologize, but I read somewhere, and can't find it, but someone stated that "moving up in the draft" is rarely fruitful, thus rarely done. Since drafting, except for those top echelon type, can't miss guys is a crap shoot by any stretch of results, I would not consider giving up someone like Bean, who we do have some history on, for a complete unknown, unless that be 1 of top 3?

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1 hour ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Then take Tippett. Not a center but the kid shoots it well.

 

I'd be really good with him, but we probably have to trade up to get him. ISS has him #4, most rankings #6, and Kimmelman and Moreale both have him at #4.

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1 hour ago, KJUNKANE said:

super dave, I'm late to the party on this, and I apologize, but I read somewhere, and can't find it, but someone stated that "moving up in the draft" is rarely fruitful, thus rarely done. Since drafting, except for those top echelon type, can't miss guys is a crap shoot by any stretch of results, I would not consider giving up someone like Bean, who we do have some history on, for a complete unknown, unless that be 1 of top 3?

 Kjun, moved your quote over here to the draft board.

 

Then I want to comment some more on it and get a chance to break out the cost of moving up calculator at the top of my resource links above.

 

Bean was picked #13. If he were valued still as a straight draft pick, that would be 31.5 points. Say we end up picking #10. That is 36.5 points.

Thus Bean plus our #10 pick would be 31.5 plus 36.5, or 68 points.  The number 2 overall pick is worth....69.9 points.

 

This is overly simplistic. We felt Bean should have gone higher. Also, Bean has more games and WJT under his belt now.

 

But then again, we need elite scoring, and Nico Hischer is that. He is listed in a few mocks as going #1, though Patrick is Sakic's kind of pick, so likely Hircher goes #2. These are the guys you can't otherwise get. Hischer has 85 points in 55 games in the Q, with 38 goals, but he also lit it up for the Swiss team in the WJC tourney w/ 7 points and 4 goals in 7 games in the main tourney and 11 points and 7 goals in 15 total games of international play.

 

Elite hockey sense, scoring touch, plays with an edge.

 

Worth at least asking the question.

Edited by remkin

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What did I miss that there is willingness to move Bean?  He's been mentioned many times, but why?  From what I've seen he can play, is effective offensively, and a key part of our future.

 

I know we need forwards, but why him?  I also think there are significant plans for Roy at center in Raleigh, even beginning next year.

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2 minutes ago, Manwolf said:

What did I miss that there is willingness to move Bean?

 

 

I don't think anybody's looking to run the guy out of town - but you package the 10th pick with Murphy, you're lucky to get the 13th back.

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We are just kicking the tires on moving Bean, there is no rumor or suggestion it would happen. I would only move Fleury if he brought something good back. He's got size and smooth and is apparently really finding his game in the back half down in Charlotte. In fact, I think we need to see him up here for a few games before this year is over.

 

We have two good ones in Bean and Fleury. Problem is we have two good ones on the same side in Slavin and Hanifin.

 

So that does make Bean or Fleury expendable, but only for the right return.

 

 

Edited by remkin
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17 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Then take Tippett. Not a center but the kid shoots it well.

Yes, Machine gun Tippett is worth a look. Shoot first mentality.

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9 hours ago, remkin said:

We are just kicking the tires on moving Bean, there is no rumor or suggestion it would happen. I would only move Fleury if he brought something good back. He's got size and smooth and is apparently really finding his game in the back half down in Charlotte. In fact, I think we need to see him up here for a few games before this year is over.

 

We have two good ones in Bean and Fleury. Problem is we have two good ones on the same side in Slavin and Hanifin.

 

So that does make Bean or Fleury expendable, but only for the right return.

 

 

 

I agree with this. The thing about those two is that I don't think either has as much offensive potential as Bean does. Slavin is definitely a defensive first guy who can chip in on offense. I'd call Hanifin a 50/50 type of defensive player. Bean, I think he is built in the same mode as a Karlsson or a Faulk...definitely an offensive first defenseman. Fleury doesn't bring that.

 

And as far as Fleury's play is concerned, if he is really finding his game down in Charlotte, why is he always on their third pairing? That doesn't sound like a guy that is ready to make the jump up to the big club anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, MinJaBen said:

Bean, I think he is built in the same mode as a Karlsson or a Faulk...definitely an offensive first defenseman.

 

In other words, he'll probably drive me crazy.  I haven't seen much of him - can he defend?

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13 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

I wouldn't move Bean, but I'd move Fleury and our first if we could get sloppy seconds this year.

Well certainly some of these pieces in our system will have to be moved if we want anything decent in return but my $0.02 says hang onto Bean and Fleury.  Fleury has been doing exactly what most of us want, being brought along slow and steady by RF. If he stepped in next year as I expect he will, he could be another Pesce or possibly Slavin level player because he wasn't rushed.  He will be hungry for the bigs and play with poise.  I haven't seen/heard much about Bean but for me same upside as Fleury.  Just would hate to see these guys be shipped out when we still would have Dahlbeck and Tennyson on the roster who are just okay.  As much as Faulk does deliver on goals for this team I would rather see him moved than Bean or Fleury.

 

What if...Slavin, Pesce, Hannifin, Fleury, Bean, and ? on the blueline next season?

Edited by raleighcaniac

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8 minutes ago, raleighcaniac said:

 

What if...Slavin, Pesce, Hannifin, Fleury, Bean, and ? on the blueline next season?

 

That RHD/LHD thang says no.

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2 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

And as far as Fleury's play is concerned, if he is really finding his game down in Charlotte, why is he always on their third pairing? That doesn't sound like a guy that is ready to make the jump up to the big club anytime soon.

 

My personal take is that Hanfin is finding his game in front of our very eyes. Since moving up to the 3-4 pair his decisions are better. I continue to maintain that he will just keep getting better and in a couple of years will be one of those elite defensemen.

 

The Fleury thing was a comment by the Checker's announcer who wrote that Fleury has made notable steps this year. I have no idea what pairing he's on, but they do have older guys there too.

 

My issue with not trading Fluery is not that we couldn't do without him, it's just that he is pegged as a top 4, possibly top pair guy, but would he bring that kind of return yet?

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20 minutes ago, remkin said:

My issue with not trading Fluery is not that we couldn't do without him, it's just that he is pegged as a top 4, possibly top pair guy, but would he bring that kind of return yet?

 

Maybe once upon a time, but I see nothing in his play or progress that makes me think he will ever be a top pairing guy. And I worry that he may never be top four as well. Every time I've ever seen him play (admittedly, very small sample size) I see the same thing I see with Murphy, just in a bigger package: indecision and hesitation. I don't think he will ever put it together to escape the bottom pairing on our team.

 

These are the lines and pairings in Charlotte according to Canes&Coffee:

 

Forward lines as of now

  •      First line: Connor Brickley-Andrew Poturalski-Danny Kristo
  •      Second line: Kris Newbury-Lucas Wallmark-Andrew Miller
  •      Third line: Erik Karlsson-Andrej Nestrasil-Sergey Tolchinsky
  •      Fourth line: Clark Bishop-Brendan Woods-Levko Koper

Defensive pairings as of now

  •      First pairing: Trevor Carrick-Jake Chelios
  •      Second pairing: Dennis Robertson-Roland McKeown
  •      Third pairing: Haydn Fleury-Philip Samuelsson

 

Trevor Carrick and Jake Chelios are their top pairing. If Fleury is making "great progress", I'd really like to know toward what.

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1 hour ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Maybe once upon a time, but I see nothing in his play or progress that makes me think he will ever be a top pairing guy. And I worry that he may never be top four as well. Every time I've ever seen him play (admittedly, very small sample size) I see the same thing I see with Murphy, just in a bigger package: indecision and hesitation. I don't think he will ever put it together to escape the bottom pairing on our team.

 

These are the lines and pairings in Charlotte according to Canes&Coffee:

 

Forward lines as of now

  •      First line: Connor Brickley-Andrew Poturalski-Danny Kristo
  •      Second line: Kris Newbury-Lucas Wallmark-Andrew Miller
  •      Third line: Erik Karlsson-Andrej Nestrasil-Sergey Tolchinsky
  •      Fourth line: Clark Bishop-Brendan Woods-Levko Koper

Defensive pairings as of now

  •      First pairing: Trevor Carrick-Jake Chelios
  •      Second pairing: Dennis Robertson-Roland McKeown
  •      Third pairing: Haydn Fleury-Philip Samuelsson

 

Trevor Carrick and Jake Chelios are their top pairing. If Fleury is making "great progress", I'd really like to know toward what.

 

 

Chelios is actually having a pretty good year in the AHL.  Fleury is also leading the team in plus/minus at 8 (Chelios is at 7, Carrick is at 3, Robertson is at 5, McKeown is a -12), and is second in defense scoring (behind only Chelios). He's also only spent 8 minutes in the box all year, plays a very clean game.  

 

Not saying that Fleury has been spectacular down there, but he's been pretty good.  I wouldn't pay too much attention to the lines.  

Edited by JCLA

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2 minutes ago, JCLA said:

 

 

Chelios is actually having a pretty good year in the AHL.  Fleury is also leading the team in plus/minus at 8 (Chelios is at 7, Carrick is at 3, Robertson is at 5, McKeown is a -12), and is second in defense scoring (behind only Chelios). He's also only spent 8 minutes in the box all year, plays a very clean game.  

 

Not saying that Fleury has been spectacular down there, but he's been pretty good.  I wouldn't pay too much attention to the lines.  

 

The reason I question his play is that I've seen those stats you quoted and they do look impressive...unless he is being given sheltered minutes. If his pairing is indeed the third pairing and is being used like most coaches do, then I'd be concerned that those stats are the result of him getting more offensive zone starts than the others, which should lead to a statistical advantage that his stats seem to be showing. Taken all together, Chelios's and Carrick's numbers are more impressive if they are the ones playing against the better lines night in and night out.

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