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remkin

NHL Draft 2017 Talk

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27 minutes ago, MinJaBen said:

 

The reason I question his play is that I've seen those stats you quoted and they do look impressive...unless he is being given sheltered minutes. If his pairing is indeed the third pairing and is being used like most coaches do, then I'd be concerned that those stats are the result of him getting more offensive zone starts than the others, which should lead to a statistical advantage that his stats seem to be showing. Taken all together, Chelios's and Carrick's numbers are more impressive if they are the ones playing against the better lines night in and night out.

 

If it is sheltered minutes it goes both ways though.  If he is having sheltered minutes and he's second in defensive scoring, that's pretty impressive.  But if he's having sheltered minutes, that in itself is worrisome.  I was actually looking for a minutes per game stat before I  submitted the post but I couldn't find any. 

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11 minutes ago, JCLA said:

 

If it is sheltered minutes it goes both ways though.  If he is having sheltered minutes and he's second in defensive scoring, that's pretty impressive.  But if he's having sheltered minutes, that in itself is worrisome.  I was actually looking for a minutes per game stat before I  submitted the post but I couldn't find any. 

 

I was thinking sheltered as in zone starts and which lines his pairing faced 3rd vs 1st, not in terms of minutes on the ice, but that would be true, too, if their line was utilized less. Either way, if the coach is sheltering, it does not sound like a ringing endorsement for moving a kid up to the next level.

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Fleury made an article in TheHockeyNews, but not the article we wanted.  Not sure how much stock to put into this, though . . .

 

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-2017-the-nhl-s-top-10-falling-prospects

4. Haydn Fleury, D, Carolina Hurricanes (-54)
Last year: 41st
Last year: 95th

Gulp. Most of Hurricanes GM Ron Francis’ early-round draft picks have earned praise since he took over in 2014. He nabbed Sebastian Aho 35th overall in 2015. He took Noah Hanifin fifth overall that year, too. He had two first-round picks last June and wisely used them on Julien Gauthier and Jake Bean.  But Francis grabbed Fleury seventh overall in 2014. The next two players chosen: William Nylander and Nikolaj Ehlers. It’s easy to cherry pick, and Francis was obviously drafting according to needs at the time but, hey, D-man Julius Honka went seven spots later. Honka rates as the No. 17 overall player in Future Watch 2017, up from 20th the year before and 23rd in Future Watch 2015. Fleury has sunk from 28th to 41st to 95th in our rankings over that span. He started slowly in his first AHL season this year but has steadied his game and is now the Charlotte Checkers’ go-to defender. Still, it does not appear he’s going to show much offense at the NHL level. That puts a lot of pressure on him to use his 6-foot-3, 221-pound frame effectively and shut down the opposition, which he does some nights but not consistently yet. He’s only 20, though, so there’s no reason to panic about his development yet. Big blueliners take time.

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OK, I had to go find it now. This from an article on Fleury on the Checker's website: Bold is mine. This was a few weeks ago:

 

Article: http://www.gocheckers.com/articles/features/haydn-fleury-s-development-translating-positively-to-stat-sheet

 

 

....While he is coming into the offensive side of his game, Fleury’s defensive play has arguably been his biggest catalyst to shooting up the plus/minus rankings.

“Obviously to be a plus you can’t be a negative on the D side,” said Fee. “So he’s really become a stronger presence in front of the net. Peter has emphasized more boxing out, which we feel that the group has done more as a whole, but Fleury especially.”

At 6-foot-3, it’s not hard to imagine Fleury becoming one of the team’s more physically imposing forces on the back end.

“He’s using that big frame, using his stick real well,” said head coach Ulf Samuelsson. “He’s been a hard player to play against. He’s been physically engaged in all the games lately.”

Fleury’s recent surge has helped boost his stature in the lineup, as he’s spent the majority of the last month manning the left side of the Checkers’ top pairing.

“It gives you confidence knowing that the coaches are putting me out there in a situation that I can succeed in,” said Fleury. “I think playing with Cheli [Jake Chelios] helps a lot too. We’ve been playing well together for the past couple of games and we’re getting more comfortable with each other as the games go on.”

That confidence has turned into production on the ice and, in turn, that production continues to spur Fleury’s confidence.

“It’s similar to [Lucas] Wallmark where he’s progressed as the year is going on,” said Fee. “Haydn’s a high draft pick and you can see why. He’s adjusted his game to what he needs to do and he’s found his niche. He’s able to excel at that.”

 
 
Edited by remkin

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The from Canes Country about a week ago:

 

and with guys like Andrew Poturalski, Lucas Wallmark, and Haydn Fleury all playing some exceptional hockey in Charlotte this season, they should all be given some ice time in Raleigh by the end of the year

 

Both this and the source on the Checker site say Fleury is finding his game over the past 7 weeks or so.

 

I doubt the Hockey News is following him that closely. Just looking at stats probably. D men take longer. But it does point out one of the problems trading prospects. Fleury probably doesn't bring the return we need at this point.

Edited by remkin

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All this winning is killing our draft position.  The Canes have moved from a tie for 28th to 19th in just a couple of weeks.  How will this team get the pieces it needs to win if it keeps winning?

 

Who are we to blame?  Heads must roll. 

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38 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

All this winning is killing our draft position.  The Canes have moved from a tie for 28th to 19th in just a couple of weeks.  How will this team get the pieces it needs to win if it keeps winning?

 

Who are we to blame?  Heads must roll. 

 

 

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On ‎3‎/‎17‎/‎2017 at 9:53 PM, remkin said:

The from Canes Country about a week ago:

 

and with guys like Andrew Poturalski, Lucas Wallmark, and Haydn Fleury all playing some exceptional hockey in Charlotte this season, they should all be given some ice time in Raleigh by the end of the year

 

Both this and the source on the Checker site say Fleury is finding his game over the past 7 weeks or so.

 

I doubt the Hockey News is following him that closely. Just looking at stats probably. D men take longer. But it does point out one of the problems trading prospects. Fleury probably doesn't bring the return we need at this point.

The problem with this line of thought, rem, is that Charlotte is presently in their own race to make Playoffs. Thus the dilemma, do you bring up a player to assess for next year's NHL team, or leave them there to possibly make their playoffs? Hmmm, which is better for the player? Which is better for the Canes? Tough decision.

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2 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

The problem with this line of thought, rem, is that Charlotte is presently in their own race to make Playoffs. Thus the dilemma, do you bring up a player to assess for next year's NHL team, or leave them there to possibly make their playoffs? Hmmm, which is better for the player? Which is better for the Canes? Tough decision.

 

Bring 'em up and assess if you want.  Its a farm club.

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I think the guys in the room have earned the right to try to push for a playoff spot.  Chances are slim and next to none, but there is a chance.  They have leapfrogged 5 teams in recent weeks to put themselves in the kinda mix.  10 games, 5 points, and 1 magic bean aren't much, but it's something.  I'd hate to see a player sit in the presser just to take a peek at a guy when the team is playing meaningful games.  If there is somebody in Charlotte that is better than a current roster player, by all means bring him up.  If not, then dance with who you brought to the dance.

Edited by super_dave_1
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2 hours ago, hag65 said:

 

Bring 'em up and assess if you want.  Its a farm club.

Not questioning that Hag, but you've missed the point. My point is for instance, we bring up Wallmark, his absence is then key issue to Checkers missing out on playoffs, which is obviously an invaluble experience, AT ANY LEVEL, meanwhile the Canes fall short, also at post season games, so he loses out at this level. Sure they are a "farm club" and we've now achieved a better barometer of his play, in the NHL, but you've sacrificed the experience of "playoff atmosphere" , not only for said player, but for the rest of the team. Thus, I think a responsible GM does not just adopt a cavalier approach, "damn the torpedoes, all steam ahead.

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7 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Not questioning that Hag, but you've missed the point. My point is for instance, we bring up Wallmark, his absence is then key issue to Checkers missing out on playoffs, which is obviously an invaluble experience, AT ANY LEVEL, meanwhile the Canes fall short, also at post season games, so he loses out at this level. Sure they are a "farm club" and we've now achieved a better barometer of his play, in the NHL, but you've sacrificed the experience of "playoff atmosphere" , not only for said player, but for the rest of the team. Thus, I think a responsible GM does not just adopt a cavalier approach, "damn the torpedoes, all steam ahead.

 

Yes you make a good point, not lost on me.  I'm just saying the needs of the parent club outweigh the needs of the farm.  If it turns out as you say that the development of the player is enhanced by staying in Charlotte then by all means.  I'm not smart enough to know the difference, I guess that is also your point.  Its a tough call.

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The quote about bringing them up was the author's not mine. I was providing context that Fleury is indeed playing really good hockey lately in response to a suggestion that he was not.

 

Personally, I agree that as long as we have that magic hope for playoffs, it is best to leave them down there. After that, it gets tricky. Personally, I just like the idea of guys getting a few NHL games under their belt before being slotted in there full time. I am really feeling both McKeown and Fleury up here next year, and a few NHL games at the end here, might do them good. The needs of the Canes outweigh the needs of the Checkers.

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I'm imagining the org's thinking is to ride the current roster until we're eliminated. If we somehow slide in, great--but assuming we're mathematically eliminated, that's when Fleury gets a game or two. I doubt getting McKeown NHL game time is a priority at this point. RF thought he was ready this year, so I'm thinking his roster spot next year is already locked down. 

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So my prediction that we would pick 8-14 is still pretty intact but this amazing run will put us at the lower end of that spectrum.

 

We presently sit in the #13 slot. We will have about a 6-9% chance of a top 3 pick depending on our finish.

 

Right now it is very likely we pick 11-14. If we lose out we could get up to #10, if we win out, we could hit #15, if Tampa crumbles. But neither of those seems likely. Best bet is 12, 13, or 14.

 

The lottery is far less likely to push us down, since someone below us would have to win a slot: right now 9% chance of one slot drop. Two slot drop is 1/1000.

 

We'll know soon enough.

Edited by remkin

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Just released:

 

Below is the ISS Top 31, highlighting the rankings for the top 31 prospects:

 

Rank    Player    Position     Team    League
1    Patrick, Nolan    C    Brandon    WHL
2    Hischier, Nico    C    Halifax    QMJHL
3    Vilardi, Gabe    C    Windsor    OHL
4    Tippett, Owen    RW    Mississauga    OHL
5    Mittelstadt, Casey    C    Green Bay    USHL
6    Liljegren, Timothy    D    Rogle    SweE
7    Glass, Cody    C    Portland    WHL
8    Rasmussen, Michael    C    Tri-City    WHL
9    Foote, Callan    D    Kelowna    WHL
10    Necas, Martin    RW    Brno Kometa HC    CzeE
11    Valimaki, Juuso    LD    Tri-City    WHL
12    Kostin, Klim    C    Dynamo    KHL
13    Tolvanen, Eeli    LW    Sioux City    USHL
14    Hague, Nicolas    D    Mississauga    OHL
15    Makar, Cale    D    Brooks    AJHL
16    Pettersson, Elias    C    Timra    SweAl
17    Suzuki, Nick    C    Owen Sound    OHL
18    Lind, Kole    C    Kelowna    WHL
19    Poehling, Ryan    C    St. Cloud State    NCHC
20    Ratcliffe, Isaac    LW    Guelph    OHL

 

 

We currently sit #13.

Edited by remkin

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I still wonder about a trade up with Vegas.

 

Our pick if it ends up #13 is worth 32 points, the #4 pick is worth 53 points (see my original post in this thread for link to point system).

 

Our #44 ish second rounder is worth 7 points, and the two late second rounders about 5 points. Our third rounders are worth about 2 points.

 

So, in theory we could trade #13, our entire second round, and one of our third rounders to move up and take, say Tippett.

 

Generally those deals don't happen because GM's don't want to trade a 5th grader for 5 first graders, and don't want to miss the big talent. But I keep thinking how Vegas needs to build up from scratch. And frankly a guy le Tolvanen or Elias Petersen would still be pretty dang good. Then they'd have FOUR second rounders and TWO third rounders after that.

 

Or we toss them 2 second rounders and a prospect.

 

 

Just kicking things around. Tippett will probably be a scoring machine, and our prospect drawer is fuller than usual anyways.

Edited by remkin

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rem, thanks for posting and keeping up with this. I never get our draft pick right so I gave up guessing. It is nice to read about it though and see what others think.

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I highly doubt we're going to pull a trade to go up in the draft.  If anything, I wouldn't mind seeing Franchise dump our first on someone else for a right-now scorer...besides, if recent history repeats itself, our second pick of the draft ends up being the steal (Faulk, Aho, etc).

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So we have now lost 4 in a row. Sad, but in all honesty every move up is more chance to pick the guy we want, and more chance to move up even further with a trade, as the closer we get to the desired spot, the easier that would be, (those trades up and down don't happen that often, but this year could be different).

 

We currently sit in the #12 hole. At this point it is now a certainty that we will rest in the pre-lottery 10-13 slot. Most likely picking there with a small chance of moving down one slot.

 

If we lose the next two, we will pick #11 with a better than even chance of getting to #10.

 

What is #10 vs. #13 worth? Well, using the broadstreet hockey link above, and the point system developed by our own Eric Tlusky, the difference between #10 and #13 is 5.5 points. That is a middle round second rounder. Also, depending on how the draft goes, it could be down a tier in prospects. Last year there was a tier of forward prospects worth taking before Jake Bean. The very last one was taken two slots ahead of us (IMO) w/ Logan Brown, though some might include the guy taken immediately before Bean, Michael McCloud. This year we really have to take a forward, and depending on how the D men go, 2-3 picks could easily move us off the guy we want.

 

Anyway, two more losses, in hard fought games, would be worth a second round draft pick in a convoluted way.

 

As to moving up in a trade, yes, like a trade proposal not happening, betting on not moving up or down is always the safe bet. Heck, when was the last time we did it?

 

But this could be a year to do it, and a year that it might be there. My guess is that the reason there are less moves up and down is that GM's are inherently biased against these deals for several reasons. Thus, when the time comes, the asking price is almost always higher than the "both sides will make a deal price". The main reason is that GM's want the best player available, and usually have a clear order in their mind. So, they've decided that player M is better than player N and O and much better than player P. So it takes a lot to move him off that pick. But this year there is a bit less agreement, especially in the upper middle range we are likely to pick. Plus we have a gaggle of second and third rounders to throw at someone. And of course this year there's Vegas.

 

As a general concept, I want us to start as highly as possible and then trade up. We need to get elite forward talent, and I think it is there at the top of this draft. But I want us to do that just about every year, and so far, no. I'm guessing that the asking price has been too high, and the best bet is it will be again. But still...

 

I know we all want help next year, but the best way to get elite talent, especially affordable cheap talent, is to draft it.

Edited by remkin

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21 hours ago, remkin said:

I still wonder about a trade up with Vegas.

 

Our pick if it ends up #13 is worth 32 points, the #4 pick is worth 53 points (see my original post in this thread for link to point system).

 

Our #44 ish second rounder is worth 7 points, and the two late second rounders about 5 points. Our third rounders are worth about 2 points.

 

So, in theory we could trade #13, our entire second round, and one of our third rounders to move up and take, say Tippett.

 

Generally those deals don't happen because GM's don't want to trade a 5th grader for 5 first graders, and don't want to miss the big talent. But I keep thinking how Vegas needs to build up from scratch. And frankly a guy le Tolvanen or Elias Petersen would still be pretty dang good. Then they'd have FOUR second rounders and TWO third rounders after that.

 

Or we toss them 2 second rounders and a prospect.

 

 

Just kicking things around. Tippett will probably be a scoring machine, and our prospect drawer is fuller than usual anyways.

Vegas has the #3 overall pick unless they fall in the draft lottery. Still I like the idea, but I don't see RF pulling the trigger on that. Last year he had 2 first and didn't move.

I see him maybe moving picks for a young NHL forward, or goalie, but as in the past he will probably have to pick from a cap strap team or a team that needs to move someone they can't protect in the expansion draft.

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Vegas starts in the three slot, but has a 69% chance of being bumped to #4. So they probably pick #4.

 

I also use #4 because the point system falls a lot from #3 to #4 costing basically a second rounder to move from #3 to #4, but also, the top 4 of this draft is pretty generally agreed on: Patrick-Vilardi-Hishier-Tippett, and any of those would be worth trading up for IMO.

 

But it is true that these deals don't tend to actually happen, and Francis is most likely to just make our picks. Also moving from #10-11 to #4 probably ends up costing more than a bunch of second and third rounders and B prospects, which then Francis is less likely to do.

 

I would like to see it, but that's just me.

Edited by remkin

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Actually, I really think RF is gunning for the trades before the Vegas expansion draft...I think there's gonna be a TON of teams shopping upper mid-level players (that they don't want to lose to Vegas for nothing) that he can pick up and possibly flip over the summer to get a top level player or two.  We have the cap space to do it too...

 

Basically, this summer might just be the most critical in his tenure...if he sits back like he's done the last two seasons and we pull another clunker, I think the entire staff might just get tossed by this time next year.

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4 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

Actually, I really think RF is gunning for the trades before the Vegas expansion draft...I think there's gonna be a TON of teams shopping upper mid-level players (that they don't want to lose to Vegas for nothing) that he can pick up and possibly flip over the summer to get a top level player or two.  We have the cap space to do it too...

 

Basically, this summer might just be the most critical in his tenure...if he sits back like he's done the last two seasons and we pull another clunker, I think the entire staff might just get tossed by this time next year.

 

I think and hope you might be right about that. This is also where a draft pick might be more valuable, as it's a guy you're not losing to the expansion draft.

 

I am also thinking and hoping that Francis has taken one last year to evaluate, compile picks and prospects, and create cap space for just this occasion, and this off-season he makes at least two significant moves, if not more. Unlike last off-season, he cannot mostly sit on his hands this time.

Edited by remkin

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The week of 6/18 will be nuts.  By 6/17 teams must submit their exposed player list, 18th-20th Knights draft, then 23rd and 24th are NHL Entry draft dates.  

 

RF should have his best shot just before that week starts and teams have fewer options for dealing exposed players with value.  He gets a head start on planning with > 2 months to go with no playoffs to worry about.

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