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NHL Draft 2017 Talk

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22 minutes ago, Manwolf said:

The week of 6/18 will be nuts.  By 6/17 teams must submit their exposed player list, 18th-20th Knights draft, then 23rd and 24th are NHL Entry draft dates.  

 

RF should have his best shot just before that week starts and teams have fewer options for dealing exposed players with value.  He gets a head start on planning with > 2 months to go with no playoffs to worry about.

 

We should have 6 teams that will have significant choices to make: Columbus, Tampa, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Philadelphia.  

 

Anaheim and Winnipeg have decide on exposing a good young defender and carry all their forwards with 7-3 or expose a forward by carrying 4 defenders with 4-4.

 

Columbus has 8 forwards they want to keep but have a NMC that had be protected, leaving 2 guys open.

 

Minnesota may not be able to re-sign their RFAs and fill their roster.

 

Tampa and Philadelphia have to expose someone but its not who they want to.  

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I am thinking that there will be deals there right before the expansion draft, and more deals at the draft. Francis has picks, prospects and cap space. Let's Make a Deal!

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In respect to draft order, I began to wonder if any of those 6 teams that were presented as "vulnerable" might have a higher pick than us? My thinking, Wonder if a trade could be reached involving us taking a player at risk of exposure for one of ours not, also including exchange of this year's draft picks? That way, we could possibly "move up" in the draft? Problem is, only 1 of those 6 teams offer that possibility, Winnipeg. In other words, my thought would be comparable to how we got TT by taking Bickell off Chicago's hands, but working this tradeoff around a center piece of moving up in the draft, if that makes sense?

 

Thoughts?

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1 hour ago, KJUNKANE said:

In respect to draft order, I began to wonder if any of those 6 teams that were presented as "vulnerable" might have a higher pick than us? My thinking, Wonder if a trade could be reached involving us taking a player at risk of exposure for one of ours not, also including exchange of this year's draft picks? That way, we could possibly "move up" in the draft? Problem is, only 1 of those 6 teams offer that possibility, Winnipeg. In other words, my thought would be comparable to how we got TT by taking Bickell off Chicago's hands, but working this tradeoff around a center piece of moving up in the draft, if that makes sense?

 

Thoughts?

 

The vulnerable was more based on expansion draft issues.  I doubt teams would be willing to trade an asset to trade down in the draft as well.  More than likely we could give up a 2nd or 3rd rounder to get a expansion draft exposed player

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Our biggest needs are a #1 goalie and another legit, top line, scoring forward.  And we can't wait for those to come through the draft, or even our current development ranks, imo.  So while I hope RF continues to play smart "small-ball", he needs to be careful not to do so at the expense of diluting that most important immediate objective.  I still expect him to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, but you get my drift.

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9 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

Our biggest needs are a #1 goalie and another legit, top line, scoring forward.  And we can't wait for those to come through the draft, or even our current development ranks, imo.  So while I hope RF continues to play smart "small-ball", he needs to be careful not to do so at the expense of diluting that most important immediate objective.  I still expect him to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, but you get my drift.

 

Well it will be interesting to see how the cards lie by the expansion draft and that noone has to express pre-expansion draft deals.

 

Card 1- how much power will Carolina, Arizona, Buffalo, and a couple if other teams that have available cover slots in the expansion draft have over those that in the negative column?  

Card 2- who makes a deal?

Card 3- does the cap stay pat or go up the rumored 2 million?

Card 4- do teams use the expansion draft to rid themselves of expensive contracts but still good players in order to keep younger guys and fill their roster?  Chicago, St Louis, Tampa, Minnesota, Detroit, and the Rangers will have big choices to make.

Card 5- teams don't lose the players that they had hoped LV would pick. What do they do now?

 

All of this plays into the draft in the end.

 

i have an odd feeling we are going to come out great or severely disappointed.  15 million to get 2 solid top 6 RWs and a top Goalie will be tough(im expecting Stempniak to be drafted).  Just depends on JK's purse size.  I have faith GMRF can make the deals when allowed.  Maybe PK can allow GMRF to spend a little more, the 15 million just gets us back to this season's salary.

 

Edited by gocanes0506

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So if I'm right about the draft order tie breakers being next to regulation wins (just guessing), then we will slot either 10 or 11 depending on tonight and LA's last game.

 

It's down to us and LA. As long as we don't end up with more points then them today, we pick #10 (pre lottery). If we pick up even one more point at the end of today, we pick #11 (pre lottery)

 

I'll leave it to each person to root for the outcome they prefer. On a cold hard basis, we are better ending up picking #10 no matter what combination of wins and losses it takes.

 

LA plays late in Anaheim. If we win, they will know a loss moves them up the draft board and a win does nothing. Does that mean they will lose if we win? In at least one line of thinking, better not to give them the chance.

 

In the end #11 is not that bad. We were at #13, and #12 recently. But the higher the better. To wit:

 

A lot of rankings and mocks have a top 9 forwards followed by two D men, then the next tier of forwards. But if just one team takes one of those D men, we are left with that last forward if we are at #10, but miss him at #11. Also, at least in theory, the higher we are, the more possible to move up to where we might rather be.

 

Also about 5% better lottery odds.

 

I guess we'll know either after our game or at the end of the day.

Edited by remkin

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Agreed on all of that, but i still can't pull for a loss.  Even if it can adversely affect them going forward, improvement over last season is still a priority for me.  :-)

 

At least the goal differential will be better this season, as long as they don't lose by 6 today (differential last season -28, currently -22).

 

Small victories...

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20 minutes ago, realmdrakkar said:

Agreed on all of that, but i still can't pull for a loss.  Even if it can adversely affect them going forward, improvement over last season is still a priority for me.  :-)

 

At least the goal differential will be better this season, as long as they don't lose by 6 today (differential last season -28, currently -22).

 

Small victories...

Best case scenario, we both win!

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At this point, I think it's going to be a complete crap shoot what teams 6-12 choose.  It may boil down to their team's individual needs rather than who's the next best player available.

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So we end up slotted #11 pre-lottery, with about a 65% chance that we pick there. In general not bad. I also agree that there is a lot of disagreement about this year's draft class. We did miss picking #10 by 1 lousy point. If LA could have just pulled out the OT, but what's done is done. We have a 10% chance at a top 3 pick, and a 3% chance of picking #1, so there's that. But then there is also a 25% chance that a team below us wins a lottery pick and pushes us down to #12. So more than twice as likely to get pushed down than up. (If my math is right there is about a 1.4% chance of two teams below us winning top 3, and .05% chance of all three going to teams below us pushing us to #14).

 

I ran the lottery simulator on tankathon 2X. First time, we picked @12. Second time, we picked #1!!! I stopped.

 

So:

 

Pick #11: 65%

Pick #12: 24%

Pick 1-3: 10%

Pick #13: 1.4%

 

The combined mock drafts of Kimmelmand and Moreale did lead to a gaggle of forwards going 1-9, then two D men before more forwards, which could mean #11 drops a level, but it is is really too hard to predict, especially this year. The only think I know for sure is that Francis better not pick a D man. Seriously, try to trade up for a forward if you have to, but don't go BPA unless it's a forward. Not this year.

 

For those who think winning-out or losing-out affects the next year's start, it will be interesting to watch Vancouver, who tanked losing their last 8 which pushed them up from 5 to 2 on the pre-lottery board. And on the flip side, NYI won out 6 in a row, and Winnipeg won out 7 in a row, but missed the playoffs. Thus, NYI and the Peg should start strong next year and Vancouver should flail. Tampa finished 8-1-1, but picking Tampa to have a good start is a bit obvious no matter how they finished.

 

Anyways, while I would have liked to have pushed into #10, we easily could have dropped lower, so overall pretty good.

Edited by remkin

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I actually wouldn't be opposed at all if we picked up another dman with our 1st.  We burned ourselves for a couple years of drafting for needs instead of best player available.  There's some quality D prospects that'll be available at #11.

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The main issue I've seen with the BPA/flip thing is that Dmen take a few years before they seem to be maximally flippable. I think with a really long horizon that makes sense, but there is downside. When I compare that with the fact that mid round picks are really hard to predict, I'd say unless the gap seems very big, take the best forward available given our needs.

 

I think last year they really felt the gap was that big. They saw Bean as an elite prospect, and the next forward to go as much riskier. In that case, I guess you have to take the D man still, but how frustrating that would be this year IMHO.

Edited by remkin

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Well spects available around 10-14 are all over the place but here are some names:

 

C/RW Cody Glass, riser in the draft.  Mostly bc he added weight to his 6'2 and his 94 points.  2 way guy and plays PP & PK

RW Eeli Tolvanen, smaller Finnish winger.  Speed and his deadly shot are his strengths.

LHD Heiskenan, smaller D man with similar reviews to Murphy.

RHD Foote, bigger guy at 6'3.  Already projected to be a 10+ year NHLer.  Positionly sound already but hasn't shown same physical presence as his father.

 

the rating for RW Kostin varies more than any other player. Power winger with a good motor but has the Russian label hanging over his head.  Could be a really interesting pick.  He may make people regret not picking him, like Nino.

 

If Glass is there, I take him in a heartbeat. If not, I pick Foote.  A RHD thats a shutdown guy and is almost guaranteed to be in the league 10+ years.  I think its the lack of O and hitting that are keeping him from top 5.  I'd be with taking a risk on Kostin as well. We had 2 1st rounders last year so it's worth the risk in my book.

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9. FLEURY TAKES OFF

Over the course of his first pro season, Haydn Fleury has become one of the Checkers’ top blue liner. Fleury’s 25 points, which rank second on the team currently, are the second most by a rookie defenseman in franchise history, trailing only Trevor Carrick’s 2014-15 season. The 20-year-old has only been a minus six times over the last 34 games, with his plus-16 rating standing as the best on the team and tied with the best mark in franchise history, set in 2011-12 by Justin Krueger and matched in 2012-13 by Zac Dalpe.

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10 minutes ago, rocheccw said:

 

9. FLEURY TAKES OFF

Over the course of his first pro season, Haydn Fleury has become one of the Checkers’ top blue liner. Fleury’s 25 points, which rank second on the team currently, are the second most by a rookie defenseman in franchise history, trailing only Trevor Carrick’s 2014-15 season. The 20-year-old has only been a minus six times over the last 34 games, with his plus-16 rating standing as the best on the team and tied with the best mark in franchise history, set in 2011-12 by Justin Krueger and matched in 2012-13 by Zac Dalpe.

:D

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As deep as our pipeline is in certain areas, it would suit me just fine for them the trade a bunch of those picks for some 'now' players.  Especially if one of those players is a goaltender.

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100% agreed.  We are in a great position this year with picks, expansion draft exposure slots, cap space, etc... to acquire legit NHL players.  Very happy to see that quote from Halford.  Lets see what materializes....  in 2 months when all of this happens.  It will be a long wait for sure.

 

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OK, I have a few minutes. I typically try to create consensus groupings of players based on scouts' rankings and mock drafts. This year, as usual, the top 3 are pretty solid. After that it gets a bit shaky, then downright unstable. I am only looking at forwards. The Dmen are even more all over the board. Up to 5 could go in the top 11, but also just 1 could. This will affect us greatly of course, as it will push better forwards down the list. But it is utterly unpredictable at this point, so I just rank forwards. My guess is that at least 2 dmen go in the top 10, so think we could pick 8 or 9th best forward.

 

Note: when I mention guy's rankings by mocks and scouts as (overall) that's because D men get up in there too, so their forward ranking would be a touch higher than their overall ranking.

 

If we can win a lottery spot or make a big trade up the top 3 is very consistently:

 

1. Patrick Nolan

2. Nico Hirshier

3. Gabriel Vilardi

 

1 and 2 are rock solid, and three is pretty agreed upon.

 

After that it gets more varied, but my consensus melding goes;

 

4. Owen Tippett

5. Casey Mittelstadt

 

There are notable dissenters on Tippett: Button has him at 20 (typical Button to drop a guy way down), Hockey prospect has him at 11. But the vast majority of everyone else has him 4-7. Mittelstadt is super consistently in that 4-8 range (overall).

 

6. Cody Glass

 

Now I have to take a separate spot on this guy. He is on fire. He is raising fast. A few mock drafters have gone nuts and have him 3,5,5,5. The scouting services also have him rising, but 7,7,7,16,6,6.

 

My guess is that every name so far, is long gone by #11, unless at least 4 dmen are picked early, which is not likely.

 

After that top 6, it gets more varied.

 

7. Martin Necas: rising. liked more by scouts (Button has him #3), than mockers. Unlikely we have a shot at him at #11.

8. Michael Rassmussen. liked more by mockers. (4 of them have him top 5, Button has him #16). Very high variability in his rankings (4-16).

9. Eeli Tolvanen. smallish 5'11', but huge skill, pure sniper. Extremely consistently mentioned 7-11 (overall). 20/20 scouts/mocks have him 7-13 overall.

 

Those 3 could be interchanged somewhat in order.

 

So, again, this is where picking 10 would have been better. Also, we could slip to #12. There are good forwards below this list, but much more disagreement over who they are.

 

The next guy is probably

 

10. Klim Kostin. But there is huge variation here. He had to get season-ending shoulder surgery, and has the Russian factor. But his is 6'3" with really high rankings earlier. One scouting service has him at #6, and NHL.com's two most recent mocks have him at 8, 10 (overall).

11. Elias Pettersson. Hockey prospects has him at #5. While other services have him at 12,14,16. Mocks tend to have him around 13-14.

 

After Klim and Elias it's all over the place. There are still guys who various scouts and mockers gush about, but others rank lower.

 

Picking no worse than #12, and assuming someone takes a defenseman, we should be able to get a guy off the list above.

 

Other names that pop up: Radcliff, Poehling, Anderson, Suzuki, Vesalainen, Suzuki. All get up into the lower tier above in a few, but lower in most.

 

These divisions are, of course arbitrary, but to me those are the groupings. Really they break down into 3 triads and a pair.

 

1. Nolan, Hirschier, Vilardi (the likely lottery picks)

2. Tippett, Mittelstadt, Glass

3. Necas, Rassmussen, Tolvanen,

4. Petterson, Kostin

 

I really want us to get in that top 9. It will depend on the number of D men taken up top, as always. If we end up #11, we need at least two D men to go top 10. If we end up #12, we need 3.

 

Despite this being a "weak" draft, when I read about the guys in the top 6  on that list, those are guys that sound likely to make a splash in the NHL. Trading up rarely happens, but for example, if say Lilgegren (a top D prospect) goes 6th, and one of Middlesadt, Tippett or Glass is there, moving from #11 to #7 should cost both late second rounders (in fact could move to #6 with that). It doesn't usually happen, but still....

 

Another, slightly more likely scenario is if we have our eye on a guy in the 3rd triad, but it looks like he'll go just ahead of us, we could give up our last second rounder to move up 1-3 slots to at least assure ourselves of one of them.

 

Despite my general love of the idea of moving up, it usually doesn't happen.

 

Heck, Francis may just trade the pick in a package to get a legit guy now....

 

That's the rankings. If I had to guess about our likely choices at #11, I'd say:

 

Rassumusen, Tolvanen, Necas, Petterson, or Kostin, with at least two of Rassmussen-Tolvanen-Necas probalby gone. If I had to put $5 down, I have a weird feeling we end up with Tolvenen (2 D men go, Necas is rising and Rassmussen has size. And we are becoming Scandanavia South, and we end up with announcers trying to distinguish Tolvanen and Teravainen).

Edited by remkin
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Nice recap Rem.  I had the same difficulty when trying to figure out how to predict who will be there.

 

Im a fan of Kostin.  I think 2 Dmen will be taken before our pick: Liljegren & Valimaki.  We may see Maker taken as well.  That may be driven by the expansion draft.  A lot more good young Dmen available in the expansion draft, moreso than young forwards.

 

I'd had to chose an order of preference based on who could be there:

Glass

Rasmussen

Kostin

RHD Foote

 

i dont expect the 1st two will be there but there is a chance.  

 

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