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remkin

NHL Draft 2017 Talk

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Okay, first things first. I don't want the smallish d-man with a game similar to Murphy. I know nothing about any of these guys, but I'd put my money on Petterson, sight unseen. He's Swedish, right? We sure like Scandinavian forwards, though except for Lindholm, we seem to find guys we like in the 2d or lower rounds. I'd honestly rather use this pick as part of a package for a ready-to-go now top 6 (preferably top line) forward.

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There are several reasons why there are few actual trade ups in the draft, especially way up or down (the few that do happen seem to tend to be up a notch or two at most). But one of the reasons is that the teams drafting at the top tend to have major offensive needs, and thus want to take an elite player rather than trade down.

 

So the draft order follows almost exactly the teams who scored the fewest goals last year. Thus, Colorado, Vancouver, Arizona, New Jersey, Detroit, all need offense, and likely most, if not all take forwards. (Most of the very bottom dwellers don't have great D either, but forwards are splashier, and tend to be NHL ready quicker).

 

There are a few possible exceptions. Two of them are unique from past years.

 

1. There is a lottery that goes beyond the top pick.  It is possible that a team that is OK up front finds itself in the top 3 via lottery win: Tampa, Winnipeg, Florida (didn't have great offense, but have forwards), and better still slots into that #3 slot where things get a little more questionable (Patrick/Hirschier seems pretty solid at 1/2).

2. Vegas. I've put it on here a few times, but Vegas will have a lot of needs, and might value prospects and quantity of picks enough to trade up, say 10 to 4.

3. Dallas. Dallas (and Winnipeg) were the most glaring examples of teams that could score, but gave up way too many goals. Dallas was #29 in goals against, (Peg: #27). But Dallas does not have to win the lottery to be a trade up scenario. They will pick #8, or possibly #9 if they lose the lottery. We would be #11 or #12. 

 

I don't know those teams well enough, I do know Dallas had goaltending like ours, and may like their D, but if one of them wins a lottery slot, they may be open to a move, or even just a shuffle up from say #11 to #8.

 

Why move up to #8? If Francis likes a guy likely to be gone by #11.

 

In my opinion that happened last year. Last year, had we traded up 3 spots, we could have had Tyson Jost or Logan Brown. Both worth taking for a team that needs forwards. This year, we need forwards even more.

 

There are likely to be some good options for forward at #11, and it really depends on how the scouts and brass feel about the prospects, but in general the guys at the top of the draft have it all: size, speed, skill, proven production, no red flags or obvious risks. Clearly if the brass really like say Elias Petterson or Eeli Tovanen, and they are there, it's all good. But in general, I sort of think either trade up or trade the pick entirely, might be a better choice this year.

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I want to keep banging the Vegas drum for one more second. Vegas has a 69% chance of picking #4, 5, or 6.  We have a very high chance of picking #11 or #12.

 

The notion of trading up from #11 to say, #5, is usually difficult, but I just wonder if Vegas might be different.

 

They would not be giving up a lottery pick (1-3), and in general the value of picks drops very fast at the very top of the draft. (#1 is worth 100 points, #2= 69.9, #3 = 54, #4 = 53, #5 = 49).

 

Thus, moving up to #4 or #5 costs way less than #1 or #2.

 

But there is a big difference in prospects from #11 to #4 or #5.

 

At #11, there will be more initial risks or questions. Kostin's shoulder, and Russian issues, Tolvanen's size, etc. There are drafts where the #11 guy ends up better than the #5 guy, but it is the exception, and really it is ranges: ie the 4-6 guys are historically better than the 11-13 guys.

 

At #4/5 There will be Tippett, Vilardi, Mittelstadt, Rasmussen, Glass. (one of them will be gone at 4 probably two at 5). But likely all of them will be gone before we pick at #11 or #12. All of those guys are 6'1" or better and all excel skill-wise, and Rasmussen is huge and skilled.

 

Just as an exercise, the #11 pick to #5 pick move would require 14 points. Our two late seconds and our early third would be around 13 points. Throw in a Murphy....gotta be worth a late third rounder....Vegas gets two more seconds a third, and Murpy, and still probably gets a good player at #11 (also Vegas can take D here).

 

Anyway, every year I want us to trade up, and every year we don't. But most teams don't because the risk drives the price too high on the trade down, so no expectations.

 

Just wonder if this year might be different, due in part to the Vegas effect.

Edited by remkin

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I agree Vegas may be looking for quantity but I doubt they move down.  They will need a name to hang the franchise banner.  I imagine they will benefit from a good draft slot like the Pens did so badly when Crosby was in the draft or the Cavs needed LeBron.  Can't let our new expansion team not have a franchise name.  Maybe just my cynicism. And they'll get a 2nd when they draft number 1 in 2018.  

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You may well be right gocanes, I'm just spitballing. If they win the lottery, I suspect they just pick Patrick, but if they get pushed down to #4-5? Maybe they'd deal. Still, by far most GM's walk up and pick, so that's always the safest bet.

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The Canes don't need to move up in this draft.  They need to parlay some of those picks into a couple of impact players for the 2017/2018 season, not somebody that may be an impact in 3 or 4 years if all goes well. 

 

If RF uses those picks or just trades up, you guys will be pissing and moaning about that...and I will too.  Thing is, I never talked about the benefits of trading up this year.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I would actually agree if we can get that guy. We can even trade this year's first rounder if it gets us the right guy.

 

But there is talent at the very top of the draft, and tiers of talent at forward that we might just fall out of,  and you have to keep building too. So much just depends on what kind of deals are out there.

 

The top two priorities are definitely goalie and at least one top forward. But if Francis can accomplish that with prospects, or a mega trade, there still could be enough second and third rounders to move up and get a higher skilled forward. Moving up a few notches could be done with just one of our late round seconds.

 

I doubt it happens, and a lot depends on who's still on the board if it's a late move,  but I won't be complaining if it does.

Edited by remkin

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Whether it's move to the top of the draft or trade for Dudeman, the simple answer IMO is that RF doesn't need to hold on to every asset and go up there and pick 11th, 42nd, 54th, 61st, 67th, 73rd, 82nd, 104th, 143rd, 166th, and 197th (or wherever their picks end up after playoffs and lottery).  I agree with s_d in that just moving up isn't the optimal solution, but it would be preferable to going up and picking 11 starting at 11.  But i don't mean trade 11 and 82 so he can pick 10, i mean trade big enough to move to the top and get Nolan.

 

But i'd be quite surprised if he doesn't pull off something good on the 'proven NHLer' front.  Nothing that's been said makes me believe he and Peters 'like our group' enough to stand pat this time around.  The cupboard is fully stocked and they have a bucket full of darts.  I see him dangling some juicy worms on the line this time around.

 

(waiter, can i have a second cup of Kool-Aid?)

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Moving up to take a guy you have targeted is okay.  Thinking that guy is going to help in the next couple of years is magic bean territory.

 

While I have been firmly behind GMRF playing the long game, it's time to work on NOW.  He's stocked a pretty nice cupboard.  Let's use some of those ingredients to make a nice cake instead of just leaving them all on the shelf.

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I think we agree SD. It is a matter of priorities and the mega overused (so one more now) walk and chew gum thing.

 

If it is only a move up the draft and a goalie, that does not work, because exactly, we need major help this year and that includes a top forward with proven NHL talent.

 

My thought is that Francis has enough prospects and picks, and dare say even assets, to make more than two moves.

 

He could trade a D player for a top forward. A prospect or two for a goalie. And use second and third rounders for the move up. Or combinations of them.

 

He has to find a goalie and a proven top 6 (really top 3) forward no matter what. But if he can do those and move up? Better than picking all those second and third rounders and sitting on all of our prospects.

 

1. Goalie

2. Top forward.

3. Other thing: move up draft, find gritty net front vet third liner, etc.

 

Gotta do 1 and 2.

 

While I tend to like moving up, the deal has to be there and it usually is not there. More just wishful thinking really. Best to just win a lottery pick.

Edited by remkin

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The expansion draft is going to be in interesting wrinkle, I think...here are the rules for goalies. 

 

"iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list."

 

You have teams like the Rangers who will have to expose Raanta, Pittsburgh who will have to expose Murray because Fleury has a No Movement clause, even guys like Grubauer or Mrazek could be available for lower value because teams would rather get something versus losing the player to the expansion. 

 

Free agency has some decent goalies available like Darling, Elliot, and of course Bishop. I'd love to see Darling find his way here. 

 

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Interesting you bring up Mrazek.  I would not assume that the Wings would expose Mrazek.  But you highlight the situation some teams are in that we can take advantage of.  

 

Would the Pens buy out Fleury rather than expose Murray?  It will be a VERY interesting time after the season is over and prior to the expansion draft.  I fully expect the Canes to be busy.

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4 hours ago, Law-Dawg said:

The expansion draft is going to be in interesting wrinkle, I think...here are the rules for goalies. 

 

"iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list."

 

You have teams like the Rangers who will have to expose Raanta, Pittsburgh who will have to expose Murray because Fleury has a No Movement clause, even guys like Grubauer or Mrazek could be available for lower value because teams would rather get something versus losing the player to the expansion. 

 

Free agency has some decent goalies available like Darling, Elliot, and of course Bishop. I'd love to see Darling find his way here. 

 

Another wrinkle related to that wrinkle... I wonder how many teams will try to work out a deal with Vegas to avoid goalies like that from being picked. Much safer to trade away a 3rd or 4th rounder (or prospect) than rolling the dice on your quality goalie being the guy that isn't taken in the draft.

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2 hours ago, ironman87 said:

Interesting you bring up Mrazek.  I would not assume that the Wings would expose Mrazek.  But you highlight the situation some teams are in that we can take advantage of.  

 

Would the Pens buy out Fleury rather than expose Murray?  It will be a VERY interesting time after the season is over and prior to the expansion draft.  I fully expect the Canes to be busy.

 

I cant imagine Pittsburgh would rather take a cap hit in buyout money when they could just as easily trade the salary.  Why not do a MAF for Cam/2nd?  I think Pittsburgh would save 2.5 million and acquire a pick at the same time.

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11 minutes ago, Stealth-ch1 said:

Another wrinkle related to that wrinkle... I wonder how many teams will try to work out a deal with Vegas to avoid goalies like that from being picked. Much safer to trade away a 3rd or 4th rounder (or prospect) than rolling the dice on your quality goalie being the guy that isn't taken in the draft.

 

If I'm Vegas, why would I take a 3rd or 4th rounder when I could have a top tier goalie?  They need to acquire all the talent/salary they can get.

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18 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

I cant imagine Pittsburgh would rather take a cap hit in buyout money when they could just as easily trade the salary.  Why not do a MAF for Cam/2nd?  I think Pittsburgh would save 2.5 million and acquire a pick at the same time.

Looks like Fleury has a NMC so he couldn't be exposed to Vegas without his consent, but his NTC is a modified one, he lists 18 teams he can be traded to (or rules out 11, 12 counting Vegas).   Wonder if he'd blackball Canes if GMRF were interested in him?

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

Looks like Fleury has a NMC so he couldn't be exposed to Vegas without his consent, but his NTC is a modified one, he lists 18 teams he can be traded to (or rules out 11, 12 counting Vegas).   Wonder if he'd blackball Canes if GMRF were interested in him?

 

There's only so many teams that need a #1 goalie.  By my count, Carolina, Winnipeg, Calgary, Dallas, Vegas, and maybe Philly & Vancouver.  Take Vegas out because there's no need to trade for him.  Take Philly out because I can't ever see a Philly/Pittsburgh trade.  I'd have to think we'd be the best option out of the remaining teams.  Vancouver is a mess, as is Dallas with a weak D core, nobody wants to willingly play in Winnipeg.  Calgary might be an option, but they could just as easily go the UFA route.  Overall I think it makes more sense to go the trade route, as we would need to get rid of either Lack or Ward anyway.

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3 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

If I'm Vegas, why would I take a 3rd or 4th rounder when I could have a top tier goalie?  They need to acquire all the talent/salary they can get.

My thought is that, given the abundance of quality goaltending that will be available, I can see Vegas making a deal with one or two teams that are worried about losing a goalie and still walk away with quite the tandem in net. Though your point is taken, so it may very well end up costing a team far more than a 3rd or 4th for Vegas to do them that favor. Really tough to gauge how that's valued, given the uniqueness of the situation.

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1 hour ago, Stealth-ch1 said:

My thought is that, given the abundance of quality goaltending that will be available, I can see Vegas making a deal with one or two teams that are worried about losing a goalie and still walk away with quite the tandem in net. Though your point is taken, so it may very well end up costing a team far more than a 3rd or 4th for Vegas to do them that favor. Really tough to gauge how that's valued, given the uniqueness of the situation.

I see what you're saying, and that'll probably happen some.  Ultimately, I'd treat the expansion draft as I would the actual draft, which is the best player available from each team.  In Pittsburgh's case, Murray would be the clear choice if left opened.  And I think regardless of who's taken from Pittsburgh, MAF is a goner, and it makes more sense to trade him over buying him out.

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2 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

There's only so many teams that need a #1 goalie.  By my count, Carolina, Winnipeg, Calgary, Dallas, Vegas, and maybe Philly & Vancouver.  Take Vegas out because there's no need to trade for him.  Take Philly out because I can't ever see a Philly/Pittsburgh trade.  I'd have to think we'd be the best option out of the remaining teams.  Vancouver is a mess, as is Dallas with a weak D core, nobody wants to willingly play in Winnipeg.  Calgary might be an option, but they could just as easily go the UFA route.  Overall I think it makes more sense to go the trade route, as we would need to get rid of either Lack or Ward anyway.

 

Which in essence seems to strengthen Fleury's position.  He knows which teams need a #1 and which teams couldn't take him because they've already got a goalie they want to protect.  So he just puts the limited number of teams that want him on his no trade list and he effectively vetoes any trade before the expansion draft.   This could get interesting.

Edited by LakeLivin

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9 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

Ultimately, I'd treat the expansion draft as I would the actual draft, which is the best player available from each team.

 

I'm willing to bet that this will not be the case. The last thing Vegas wants is 30 one way contracts. The majority will be BPA as you say, but some will be throw away picks or AHL players unless they get other teams to "buy" the 7 or 8 guys they won't keep at the NHL level.

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Vegas need depth as much as they need quality...They have no farm system! Currently having only one player under contract out of a possible 50 contracts!

 

Draft will be BPA at first...then by position for depth, & finally young players on 2 way contracts or RFAs that can play at either the NHL or AHL level. If I'm Vegas I'm looking at young possible NHL players as much as I would be looking at veteran contract to help get above the floor...they will probably be willing to take picks, but prospects will be more valuable since they need depth that is closer to playing in an NHL or AHL role.

 

I think MAF will waive his NMC & either end up in Vegas, or with another team looking for a #1. I would be happier with him & Murray staying together, but that will take a big bribe that I'm not sure the Pens have nor can afford.

 

I still see the Canes as a good trade partner in something like Lack or Ward for MAF & the Pens original 2nd round pick going back to the Pens. Now if you want to get a little crazy how about MAF, & Sprong for Lack, H. Fluery & Pens 2nd(currently owned by Canes)...Pens get young d prospect + pick back + cap room.  Canes get Legit #1 goalie + a good young scoring wing with Top 6 potential.

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That Vegas need for depth is also why I think they might be open to a trade up in the draft, especially if they drop to 4 or 5.

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13 minutes ago, remkin said:

That Vegas need for depth is also why I think they might be open to a trade up in the draft, especially if they drop to 4 or 5.

:deadhorse:  VEGAS!!! Beat that thing Rem!  Might could sweeten that pot with adding a decent prospect to it rather than more picks...Say #4 or #5 for #11, MCKEOWN , & 2 of our 3 - 2nds.

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