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59 minutes ago, remkin said:

After Whitney I am going to be careful talking about declining production from guys on the wrong side of 35. Williams would be a great addition, but he cannot be "the' move. In fact, if we end up letting Stempniak walk, he'd be a nice replacement, but we need a bigger move up front.

 

I do love the idea of Neiderrieter. I have trouble thinking he'd be available, but he put up 25 goals last year and is just coming into his prime. That would be a good one. But I do not want to give up Hanifin. I would not move Hanifin for anything less than a Draisaitl level player, and that trade isn't there.

 

I'll pine for Oshie till he's signed somewhere else. 

Im ok with Hannifin being our trade bait, the kid just hasn't impressed me.  I know he's young, but I just don't see where he is going to be so great, he is a good skater, that's about all I've noticed from him, that and he throws the puck away often when pressured. I have a good feeling about Fleury, I think he's going to turn out to be the big D man we need.

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1 minute ago, danimal-ch1 said:

Im ok with Hannifin being our trade bait, the kid just hasn't impressed me.  I know he's young, but I just don't see where he is going to be so great, he is a good skater, that's about all I've noticed from him, that and he throws the puck away often when pressured. I have a good feeling about Fleury, I think he's going to turn out to be the big D man we need.

I agree that he struggled in the first half; I was one of his harsher critics here. But you might want to look at this second-half numbers. Saying he turned a corner is too strong, but he definitely took a step. 19 is young to write anybody off, but especially a top-ranked D prospect who is only costing you ELC money.

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51 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I agree that he struggled in the first half; I was one of his harsher critics here. But you might want to look at this second-half numbers. Saying he turned a corner is too strong, but he definitely took a step. 19 is young to write anybody off, but especially a top-ranked D prospect who is only costing you ELC money.

For sure, I'm not hating on the kid, just saying, I'm not crying if he is the piece we trade to get the pieces we need.  I'm just not sure who he is as a D man.  Is he supposed to be an offensive D man?  a PP quarterback?  A hard hitter? a stay at home d man?  Whats his identity as a D man in the NHL and in the past?  I give him lots of props for being very good at skating the puck up out of the zone, that I always noticed and a decent PP quarterback.  I just really haven't noticed any other strong spots. .

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I would die if we landed Kovy - see my username, as a reminder...

 

I could actually wear my Thrashers jersey to games and not be ridiculed like back in the late 00's haha.

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4 minutes ago, danimal-ch1 said:

For sure, I'm not hating on the kid, just saying, I'm not crying if he is the piece we trade to get the pieces we need.  I'm just not sure who he is as a D man.  Is he supposed to be an offensive D man?  a PP quarterback?  A hard hitter? a stay at home d man?  Whats his identity as a D man in the NHL and in the past?  I give him lots of props for being very good at skating the puck up out of the zone, that I always noticed and a decent PP quarterback.  I just really haven't noticed any other strong spots. .

I agree, and I'm not a lover yet. But despite his slow adaptation to the NHL, I just can't forget what we asked of him. NCAA teams play a max of 34 games each season, and he had exactly one season at that level, then straight to the NHL. That is a big ask. My eye test told me his biggest problem was positioning; he often seemed a stride behind until the second half of this season. That would fit with the pace difference between the NCAA and the NHL, especially since he didn't have the transition of the AHL. Should he regress to that slower pace in the new season, that's a problem--but I'll be surprised if we moved him before, say, a Bean--which, don't get me wrong, I also don't want to do. 

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Slight reminder that as part of selling our soul, JR gave up Dumoulin.  He's eating a lot of minutes and not doing too badly.   Does this organization want to repeat that kind of experiment?

 

If so, it better be for a forward who has their Wiki page occasionally change to being "God."

Edited by wxray1
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4 hours ago, danimal-ch1 said:

Im ok with Hannifin being our trade bait, the kid just hasn't impressed me.  I know he's young, but I just don't see where he is going to be so great, he is a good skater, that's about all I've noticed from him, that and he throws the puck away often when pressured. I have a good feeling about Fleury, I think he's going to turn out to be the big D man we need.

 

My take has always been that his upside was huge, but he did not have the preternatural ability to step into the NHL at 18 that say, and Ekblad had. Still, I have seen lots of skill and skating well mixed in with mistakes and turnovers. Until after the trade deadline.

 

After the deadline he was very good.

 

Defenseman are said to peak at 28 or so. I've heard multiple NHL D men say that it didn't really come together at all until they were around 23. Hanifin is 20 until January. Fluery is 21 in two months, McKeown is 21 now. It is so hard to watch a guy develop in the NHL, especially on D.

 

 

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18 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

A name I've seen recently is Eberle

 

12 hours ago, rocheccw said:

No to Eberle...he looked awful in the playoffs.

 

I'm not gonna say we should target him, but I'm also just not as worried as some about where the scoring comes from, RW or C, doesn't matter to me, and a legit version of either of these rare-as-hens-teeth commodities is likely to cost a roster player. 

 

Eberle has shown he can score, with 25 or more goals in five of his eight years in the league. 52 more total points over the same number of seasons Skinner has played, though Eberle's only played 10 more games. And he's got two years left on his contract. During that two years, he needs to prove something if he wants his UFA payoff, and he also knows he's never gonna make Captain in Edmonton. I think BP and RF like guys with something to prove, and Eberle is perfectly incentivized to perform in the short term and--if he wants it--to earn a long-term leadership role here, if not the C.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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19 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

. . .

As far as what's available on the trade front, we don't really know who's available and what costs are.  A name I've seen recently is Eberle, but with Edmonton in win-now mode, he's going to cost a roster player, a defenseman at that, likely Faulk, and I'm not going there.  Unless there's a legit #1 center available, I don't want to move any roster player.

. . .

 

I've heard speculation that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins might be available, which would make sense in that he's earning $6m/yr as a 3rd string center for the Oil.  He's 2 years younger than Eberle, had a worse season, and has 2 years longer on his contract (but is that a good or bad thing at $6m per?)  I don't hold it against him that he's third string behind McSuperman and Draisaitl.  Not saying we should target him, but Oil may be willing to let their 3rd line center go a lot more easily than their 1st line RW.  If we could pick him up without giving up a current roster player?  I ask this not as an ideal, rather in light of the other options (or lack thereof) that have been presented so far.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I think a trade around RNH and Eberle for TT, McKeown, and a 2nd might work for both teams quite well. We get another high end 2c and a scoring RW while the Oil get a 3c and a PMD that shoots right and most importantly for them sheds a ton of salary at a time when they need to sign Draisaitl and McDavid.

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I gotta say I have a hard time getting much excitement about the idea of either RNH or Eberle. But of the two, I'd take Eberle.

 

RNH is a busted #1 overall pick. Sure, he's a decent 3C on a team that can afford to have him in that spot, but he has just failed to be better than that yet, despite lots of opportunity. Last year he played all 82 games and managed 18G and 43 points. This is basically what TT did, but TT is younger and more upside. Yes, he was a third line center, but still. On top of that RNH is perennially bad on the plus/minus. Last year was last on the team at -10 on a plus team and -5 worse than the second to last guy, and bottom third the year before that. Then, he went 0 goals, 4 points in 13 playoff games this year. Yes, he would be a serviceable 3rd line center, but we need a first line center.  We really don't need more third liners.

 

Eberle did even worse in the playoffs (2 points, 0 goals, 13 games). Playoffs is a rougher tougher game vs only good teams. It was only 13 games, and thus a small n value, but at least the suggestion is that he is a regular season guy. At least Eberle has put up numbers though. Last year 51 points and 20G, but has hit 76, and 60's twice, and still only 26. Since ours is a team that needs to MAKE the playoffs, especially the two years left on his deal, he could definitely help with that.

 

The constant unknowable question is what would it take to get one of these guys? Clearly the price matters.

 

The problem with trading McKeown, is that he is our entire depth at RHD.

 

But would we trade Fleury or Bean? I would not trade either guy for either Eberle or RNH straight up. And Edmonton is the last team interested in draft picks I would think.

 

If we could get Eberle and not give up any of: Fleury, Bean, Gauthier, Roy or anyone on the roster? Sure, but that is probably not doable.

Edited by remkin

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Put this in the Pipe Dream File also, but the Oiler that would be amazing to get (Draisaitl has moved from pipe dream to pipe to the head for even thinking of) is Jesse Puljujarvi.

 

No, the Oilers are probably not interested in moving him. Even though he slid to #4 he is yet another example of the embarrassment of high draft picks that the Oilers have gotten. If I'm the Oliers, I'm moving RNH and Eberle out to move this guy in, so I highly doubt he's available.

 

But just for fun, he only put up 8 points in 28 games for the Oilers. Yes, he was only 18, but so was Patrick Laine. who some compared him to, and who put up 36 goals and 64 points for Winnipeg. Puljujarvi was able to go to the AHL where he did better (28 points 39 games), but has been 0/8 in tourney games. Also, Columbus famously passed him over at #3 against almost all prognostications. So maybe his stock has slipped just a touch?

 

First, they probably have no interest in trading him, but I do wonder what it would take, because the upside on this guy is huge (and so is he).

 

Fluery, our first and a second and another prospect? Hanfin and our first (not sure I'd even do that one, but would it get it done?).

 

We'd still need to pick up another guy if we did this, because while he may score a ton some day, we can't count on it next year, but we still could pick up another guy. If we could somehow do this and not lose a roster player?

 

Anyway, more of a long shot than me winning the pick the playoffs contest, but just kicking it around.

Edited by remkin

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20 minutes ago, remkin said:

Put this in the Pipe Dream File also, but the Oiler that would be amazing to get (Draisaitl has moved from pipe dream to pipe to the head for even thinking of) is Jesse Puljujarvi.

 

No, the Oilers are probably not interested in moving him. Even though he slid to #4 he is yet another example of the embarrassment of high draft picks that the Oilers have gotten. If I'm the Oliers, I'm moving RNH and Eberle out to move this guy in, so I highly doubt he's available.

 

But just for fun, he only put up 8 points in 28 games for the Oilers. Yes, he was only 18, but so was Patrick Laine. who some compared him to, and who put up 36 goals and 64 points for Winnipeg. Puljujarvi was able to go to the AHL where he did better (28 points 39 games), but has been 0/8 in tourney games. Also, Columbus famously passed him over at #3 against almost all prognostications. So maybe his stock has slipped just a touch?

 

First, they probably have no interest in trading him, but I do wonder what it would take, because the upside on this guy is huge (and so is he).

 

Fluery, our first and a second and another prospect? Hanfin and our first (not sure I'd even do that one, but would it get it done?).

 

We'd still need to pick up another guy if we did this, because while he may score a ton some day, we can't count on it next year, but we still could pick up another guy. If we could somehow do this and not lose a roster player?

 

Anyway, more of a long shot than me winning the pick the playoffs contest, but just kicking it around.

 

 

Good thoughts here, but i'm in the group who thinks Edmonton probably doesn't need or want additional draft picks - they've shown that they don't always know what to do with them.  I think the only way we get any Oilers is roster players.  Maybe prospects, but i don't think draft picks gets it done.

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On 5/12/2017 at 1:36 PM, top-shelf-1 said:

I agree that he struggled in the first half; I was one of his harsher critics here. But you might want to look at this second-half numbers. Saying he turned a corner is too strong, but he definitely took a step. 19 is young to write anybody off, but especially a top-ranked D prospect who is only costing you ELC money.

A 19 year old defenseman who is able to play top 4 minutes.  I would rather trade Fleury or Mckeown.  I know Hani can cut it in the NHL.

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I don't know about trading Fleury...I really think that he's gonna be one hell of a player for us when he finally breaks in.  Haven't seen too much of McKeown...so I'll reserve judgment. 

 

I wonder if anyone would take a trade for Jordan and Murphy?  ;)

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49 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

I don't know about trading Fleury...I really think that he's gonna be one hell of a player for us when he finally breaks in.  Haven't seen too much of McKeown...so I'll reserve judgment. 

 

I wonder if anyone would take a trade for Jordan and Murphy?  ;)

Until he is a proven NHL player.  It's a best guess.

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21 hours ago, realmdrakkar said:

 

Good thoughts here, but i'm in the group who thinks Edmonton probably doesn't need or want additional draft picks - they've shown that they don't always know what to do with them.  I think the only way we get any Oilers is roster players.  Maybe prospects, but i don't think draft picks gets it done.

 

True. That post is in the just south of fantasy grouping of posts. It really seems that Edmonton is planning on moving at least one of Eberle or RNH if not both. And will have big plans for Pulvujarvi, who should be able to start putting up points on an entry deal.

 

Looking at the Oiler's stats though, I do find it interesting that they might consider trading RNH and Eberle. True, these guys did diddly and squat in the playoffs, but in the regular season they were the #3 and #5 forwards in points. That's removing almost 80 points from the line up. I guess it's all good when you have a 100 point deity and a 77 point side kick, but still. It looks like Patrick Maroon is for real, but this was a big outlier year for him at 42 points, though mostly goals. If he falls back even 3 points total, and the Oilers trade RNH and Eberle, they might only have 3 guys over 40 points.

 

Anyways, that makes me think that he Oliers can't really afford to give up a guy like Puljujarvi. Plus, imagining him with McDavid OR Draisaitl would make me drool if I were and Edmonton fan.

 

After trading Hall and getting a single (in place of a homer) with RNH, and getting a whiff on Yakapov, the Oilers are not as fat in elite forwards as maybe I thought, especially if they trade RNH/Eberle.

 

Probably have to look elsewhere unless Francis wants one of them. I'd take Eberle, but probably not for the asking price. Just can't see RNH unless they are giving him away.

Edited by remkin
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While we guess and anticipate Francis' big forward move, and revel in his Darling move, I think it is worth noting that this youngest team in the NHL, has a few key guys who really came on in the back half or even last month of the year, but that surge was partially obscured by their slow starts, and the team being out of the playoffs.

 

To avoid a mega long post, I'll take them one per post.

 

1. Elias Lindholm. If you just click on the Canes' stats and didn't know the story, you'd see 45 points, 11 goals. Not terrible, but hardly amazing. But looking deeper, the best evidence projects him to be much better than that next year. For one thing he missed some games. If he'd have played all 82 that would be 50 points. But mainly he found his game after October and November were in the books. From Dec - April, the last 50 games of the season, he put up 38 points in 50 games. This would project to 62 points in a full season. He actually let off a touch at the very end. If one projects his Dec-March he hits on a 67 point pace.

 

Since he finished 50 games at the 60 point pace, it would seem a good bet that he can find that next year. As evidence, he is killing it in the World Tourney now too.

 

But there are other hidden gems in Lindholm's numbers. One is that he was snake bitten on goals. Too curved a stick or not, he hit posts and just had a shooting % of 7.5%, not great. On one hand he's struggled in this for a couple of years, on the other hand, he put up 17 goals as a 19 year old. Further he put up 5 goals in March. So if Lindholm can get close to 20 goals, that will push his points up by 9-10 points.

 

Primary assists. Lindholm was not just passing the puck to a guy passing the puck to a guy. He was directly setting up chances and goals. Took this from Cane's Country:

 

According to stats.hockeyanalysis.com, among forwards who skated at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 play, Lindholm was 7th out of 351 players in terms of 5-on-5 primary assists per 60 minutes.

 

That’s about as good of a metric as we have to determine the quality of a playmaker, and Lindholm was downright elite in what turned into a breakout year for him as the season wore on. The only players who finished ahead of him were Ryan Getzlaf, Connor McDavid, Nick Schmaltz, Johnny Gaudreau, Henrik Zetterberg, and Evgeni Malkin.

 

That analysis adjusts for games played (actually TOI), but does not account for his slow first 30 games. I'm guessing that from Dec - March, he was even better.

 

 

If one simply projects his last 50 games, Lindholm puts up 60 points next year if he plays 80 games. If he manages 10 more goals, he would project to 70 points.

 

 

A lot of things can happen. Jordan Staal had about a 40 game run that was even better two years ago, but could not duplicate it this year. But there was a huge confidence in Lindholm during that last stretch, and his name even got tossed out for a leadership role. He got himself into NHL shape, and now has that confidence. If he stays healthy, 60 points is a pretty fair bet, and 70 is not crazy.

 

 

 

Edited by remkin

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2. Justin Faulk. Yeah surprised a couple of people with that probably. After all, I've had him as trade bait for a lot of the year (though not at the end). But Faulk, along with my #3 on this list, improved his weaknesses a lot after the trade deadline. Faulk has always been a relative goal scoring machine, especially on the PP. But his aggressive style of D, has left him standing there a lot of times as grade A chances go the other way. This has frustrated the crap out of a lot of us as Faulk provideth goals and alloweth even more.

 

But I can remember, when Faulk first came up, that his defense was pretty good. I remember him staying with the forward, riding him to the boards and relieving him of the puck. But then, at some point, he started playing bouts of defense the way a forward would: challenge early because Lord knows you don't want to try to match him skating backwards. To be clear, I'm not talking about offensive zone pinches. I talking about neutral ice and in the d zone "pinches".

 

BTW, this is not just me here. Trip kept imploring Faulk to improve the defensive side of his game, and that it wasn't that he couldn't do it, but that it came and went.

 

But he seemed to start sorting this out after the trade deadline. Here was an interesting take on this:

 

From CanesCountry:

 

Ron Hainsey was Faulk's most common defensive partner prior to the trade deadline. Before Hainsey was traded, Faulk's 5-on-5 goals-for percentage was 37.14% (Hainsey's was 35.53%). After the trade, when Faulk was more consistently paired with Slavin or Noah Hanifin, his goals for climbed to 52.94%. His PDO went from 95.9 to 100.1. He was a plus +1 over the last 26 games. And that's with no appreciable differences in any of his other stats. Granted, his injury status also improved over the last half of the season, but it was likely a combination of good health plus a change in deployment pairings that created a pretty radical turnaround.

 

Yes, Faulk was +1 over the last 26 games.

 

The thing is, if Faulk can be a plus player, he moves from an offensive stud to an elite defenseman.

 

Considering that Faulk is RHD, and Slavin/Hanifin are LHD as are our two best D prospects, and Faulk is about our only offense, trading him always had extra risk. But if Faulk can play at least decent defense? Hold off on that, because he does everything else very well (including puck moving).

 

So I have him on the "hidden" upside next year list, because of the defensive potential. If he can keep that up, and Hanifin does what I think he will, our top 4 D will be better.

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3. Noah Hanifin. So here's an interesting factoid. Hanifin is just 6 months older than Sebastian Aho, but plays a position that typically takes 2-3 years longer to figure out.

 

Hanifin has flashed super-smooth skills from day 1, but has also made a lot of mistakes. He was 18 and 19 for the majority of his career so far. Sure there have been other player exceptions that seem to figure it out as a teenager, but they are the true exceptions.

 

So Hanifin was having some struggles in the bottom pairing, and we traded Hainsey forcing Hanifin into a top 4 role. So, one might think this would expose his game. But instead, he elevated his game as he seemed to figure it out all at once with more ice time and a better partner.

 

I'm leaning on Canes' Country again, and I've posted this before, but it makes the point:

 

Basically, Hanifin finished very strong in a more prominent role. He will have an off-season, and training camp to step up even more. He will be very solid in the #4 and he worked well with Faulk, possibly even helping him improve his defense:

 

 

Noah Hanifin before and after

Statistic Before 2/23 After 2/23
GP 55 (68%) 26 (32%)
Points 2 – 13 – 15 2 – 12 – 14
Pts/60 0.97 1.61
TOI (EV) 14:36 18:29
TOI (PP) 02:14 01:34
TOI 18:52 20:07
+/- -19 even
CF% 49.7% 53.0%
GF% 40.0%

55.6%

PDO 97

100.4

Edited by remkin

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I'm out of time now, but 3 more guys who could, or even should improve next year are Aho, Rask and Teuravainen.

 

Not that any of them was at all bad, and clearly Aho broke out, but all of them have more points in them.

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On 5/13/2017 at 8:52 PM, bluedevil58 said:

A 19 year old defenseman who is able to play top 4 minutes.  I would rather trade Fleury or Mckeown.  I know Hani can cut it in the NHL.

 

Agreed 100% with Bluedevil58.  Hanifan is one of the best assets we have.  If we do have to trade him to get who we want on offense, we are talking a top-line player we should expect in return....

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On 5/12/2017 at 0:26 PM, remkin said:

After Whitney I am going to be careful talking about declining production from guys on the wrong side of 35. Williams would be a great addition, but he cannot be "the' move. In fact, if we end up letting Stempniak walk, he'd be a nice replacement, but we need a bigger move up front.

 

I do love the idea of Neiderrieter. I have trouble thinking he'd be available, but he put up 25 goals last year and is just coming into his prime. That would be a good one. But I do not want to give up Hanifin. I would not move Hanifin for anything less than a Draisaitl level player, and that trade isn't there.

 

I'll pine for Oshie till he's signed somewhere else. 

I'd love either but I hope RF can still pull some magic for a 1C. I'm still hoping that the cap strapped teams may have to shake a center loose.

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22 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

I'd love either but I hope RF can still pull some magic for a 1C. I'm still hoping that the cap strapped teams may have to shake a center loose.

I agree, but that is a tall order. Teams just rarely part with them and even if they have two of them, they don't: Pittsburgh, Edmonton, etc.

 

I'm all for it if he can do it, but getting a quality winger will be easier.

 

Though, if he could get Matt Duchene without giving up a roster player, that would fill that gap. Then sign Oshie.....ok then sign J Willy if he can't sign Oshie.

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