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Off-Season Talk 2017

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3 hours ago, wxray1 said:

Mark Armstrong on ABC11 said that "Slavin declined".  No reason given.

 

The way he is playing, I find it hard to believe it is injury.  Just guessing here: he's a very well rounded individual who tries to keep balance in faith and family, aside from his hockey life.  It may just be he needs that time away.  (Guessing!)

That would be my guess as well.

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No issue here.  It is the off-season.  If he needs to recharge so he can be ready for next year, that is his prerogative.  Get some rest, Jaccob

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I'm really surprised that Friesen was let go. Ron continues to put his stamp on the organization. I don't think an answer as to why is coming unless Friesen speaks out. Maybe Ronnie just doesn't see him as the guy to oversee the ongoing physical development of all our young players. He'll probably land in some role for Pittsburgh. Seriously, I hope he lands on his feet.

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Off topic, but Orpik just laid another questionable hit on a Toronto player. I'm no expert at what is a legal hit and what isn't, but it sure looked like Orpik targeted Polack awful high. No penalty though. The Leafs are in a dead heat with the Rangers and Canadiens for my least favorite team. But Orpik is almost without peer in the race for least favorite player. 

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22 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

Off topic, but Orpik just laid another questionable hit on a Toronto player. I'm no expert at what is a legal hit and what isn't, but it sure looked like Orpik targeted Polack awful high. No penalty though. The Leafs are in a dead heat with the Rangers and Canadiens for my least favorite team. But Orpik is almost without peer in the race for least favorite player. 

Were you a Canes fan in 2002?  There was this guy named Scott Steven's

  Far far worse.  I one time watched in horror and in person when he took out GMRF with an open ice hit.....

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On 4/15/2017 at 8:41 PM, bluedevilcane said:

I'm really surprised that Friesen was let go. Ron continues to put his stamp on the organization. I don't think an answer as to why is coming unless Friesen speaks out. Maybe Ronnie just doesn't see him as the guy to oversee the ongoing physical development of all our young players.

No position in pro sports is forever - although there are some rare exceptions.  Sometimes a person becomes bigger than the role they should be playing and that may have been Friesen's issue. With 21 years on the staff he may have intimidated the younger guys with his been there/done that approach/attitude.  I dislike the notion that a player should be working out to the max each and every time they work out and that seemed to be Friesens mantra which in my opinion led to the rash of injuries a few years back; you can't expect a 35 year old to be working out using the same card as a 22 year old. It was JR who told Friesen to tailor a workout for each player - something Friesen should have known to do. Maxing out is not what each session should be about either. Olympic swimmer Dara Torres  a female swam in 5 Olympics for the US and came back for one last shot in 2008 at the age of 41 and picked up 3 silvers. She said she never trained nearly as hard because her body couldn't handle it.  One other thought is that if players lose confidence in a trainer the trainers toast and will be shunned.  I think its good to clean house outside of the players. 

 

Also agree Roddie, not Smittie would be the coach to go - Peters was given Roddie without any choice unlike Smittie who he brought with him. Roddies comment were always a breath of fresh air but the reality is our 5x5, 5x4 and 3x3 were average at best often leaning to terrible.

Edited by raleighcaniac

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Agreed with everything raleighcaniac said.  You can't make the playoffs for 3 times in 20 years and keep as many personnel as the Hurricanes have.  Initially, I was surprised GMRF didn't let go of our scouting team, but now I more so chalk it up to JR not valuing drafting.  It's time to rid the organization of nepotism.  I like these moves just as much as any roster move we've made.  I think if a coaching move is made, Rod would be moved to somewhere else in the front office.

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PK17, not sure I understand your point about the scouting team, but hope you're not suggesting that this is an area that should be downsized? In my opinion, a team like the Hurricanes, with our well recognized low budget team, are the ones most in need of a large scouting staff to maximize our draft picks, thereby infusing our team with players at the lower end of their salary,

Edited by KJUNKANE

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6 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

PK17, not sure I understand your point about the scouting team, but hope you're not suggesting that this is an area that should be downsized? In my opinion, a team like the Hurricanes, with our well recognized low budget team, are the ones most in need of a large scouting staff to maximize our draft picks, thereby infusing our team with players at the lower end of their salary,

 

No sir, I wasn't suggesting downsizing the scouting, I meant replacing the ones that's been with us forever, particularly Macdonald.  Pre-GMRF, we rarely played guys we drafted, or just traded away picks like it was nothing.  I think RF keeping our long time scouts indicates he thought it was less on them, and more of JR not developing prospects.

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I don't think JR valued the draft after the 1st round.  He certainly didn't have the patience to wait for players to develop. It's why he hardly ever used a high pick on a d-man (oh, and thanks for Murphy by the way).  Draft choices were JR's currency to get rid of players and contracts, or to trade for somebody else's stalled prospect.

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8 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

 

No sir, I wasn't suggesting downsizing the scouting, I meant replacing the ones that's been with us forever, particularly Macdonald.  Pre-GMRF, we rarely played guys we drafted, or just traded away picks like it was nothing.  I think RF keeping our long time scouts indicates he thought it was less on them, and more of JR not developing prospects.

Ok PK17, now I get it. As to McDonald, I think he's well respected, and besides, I'm not sure that our scouts were all that bad, it's just at 1 time, we had so very few, that the just could not provide adequate coverage. That really confused me, as I pointed out, because it  seems like a budget team, like ours, is in much more critical need for scouting expertise than teams who can buy all the free agents they have room for?

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For the Sunshine and Lollipops Brigade.

 

Pierre McGuire on SiriusXM this morning was talking about the Blues and the Preds being up 3-0 in their series's.  He attributed both to their really solid top 4 defensemen.  That and good goaltending.  What do the Blues and Preds do?  The Blues make the playofs every year and the Preds are starting to.

 

Just thinking it won't be long for us and we're in the mix.

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I put it in the draft thread, but I am completely convinced that Francis makes at minimum, two substantial moves or even a splash, this off-season.

 

The thing about Nashville is that they often made the playoffs on pure defense for years, but never went far due to low offense. This year Nashville has offense. (#11 in Offense, #15 in Defense). St Louis sort of same thing, and (this year #12 offense, #13 defense). They are both balanced, but have at least top 12 offense to go with it.

 

I do think we are heading there too though (a balanced team). We were #18 in D and #21 in Offense. But that is deceptive on D since we were right near the very bottom in save percentage. Add a decent NHL goalie, watch Hanifin arrive much better next year, and the D is OK. But #21 in offense needs help.

 

Thus 1-2 forwards, and a good #1 NHL goalie, combined with maturation of a young team and both ranks go up, likely high enough to get in.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

I put it in the draft thread, but I am completely convinced that Francis makes at minimum, two substantial moves or even a splash, this off-season.

 

The thing about Nashville is that they often made the playoffs on pure defense for years, but never went far due to low offense. This year Nashville has offense. (#11 in Offense, #15 in Defense). St Louis sort of same thing, and (this year #12 offense, #13 defense). They are both balanced, but have at least top 12 offense to go with it.

 

I do think we are heading there too though (a balanced team). We were #18 in D and #21 in Offense. But that is deceptive on D since we were right near the very bottom in save percentage. Add a decent NHL goalie, watch Hanifin arrive much better next year, and the D is OK. But #21 in offense needs help.

 

Thus 1-2 forwards, and a good #1 NHL goalie, combined with maturation of a young team and both ranks go up, likely high enough to get in.

 

I'd like to pattern our team after St. Louis, the problem there is two things.  First, they play in the shallower western conference, which tends to be the more defensive-oriented conference.  Also, St. Louis also plays a bigger, heavier game than does Carolina.  Hanifin/Pesce/Slavin are all bigger guys, but they aren't as physical as the Blues blueliners. 

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I agree we'll never be a super heavy team, like St Louis or LA. But Chicago and Pittsburgh have done OK not being that as were the good Detroit teams. I just think we will need to be a balanced team, especially in the next season, to get in. That is, defense ranked in the top 15, Offense top 15. Ideally higher.

 

The defense is close at #18 with bad goaltending, and should improve. The offense has to climb at least 6 slots.

 

This year, no team in the top half of the league in both offense and defense missed the playoffs. Tampa Bay was close at #14 offense and #16 defense, but also had the best non playoff record.

 

I pointed out last year that this year's team needed to gain quite a few "goals for" to get in. We fell short of that, but this team did score more goals than last year's team: 212 vs 196. That is 16 more goals (higher math skills). The cut line for top half this year was 223 goals for. So from an offensive view point we have gotten closer, and need about 11 more goals. (We would need more if we can't get better goaltending).

 

To me this proves that we are one elite forward and a goalie away from the playoffs. The goalie alone would push our defense into the top 15 with this year's D. But I think next year's D will be better. And the offense needs 11 more goals. Thus a 25 goal player would get it done by outscoring the best pace of our current #9 forward (McGinn at 10 goals). But of course a grade A forward will create more goals than they score. And Lindholm will score more than 11 goals next year. That's the safest bet out there. If just Lindy gets to even 19 goals, and we add a 25 goal forward? That's 23 goals more directly (more than our other top 9 guy). That's 235 goals, good for #12, but that top forward will create a few more goals for others too.

 

So:

 

Get a true #1 goalie. Defense gets to top 15, probably top 10-12.

Get a true top line forward, Offense gets to top 12 or better.

 

May not be a cup favorite yet, but that would spell playoffs almost certainly.

Edited by remkin

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

....So:

 

Get a true #1 goalie. Defense gets to top 15, probably top 10-12.

Get a true top line forward, Offense gets to top 12 or better.

 

May not be a cup favorite yet, but that would spell playoffs almost certainly.

Get a real PP

Get to at least .500 in extra time.

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1 hour ago, Manwolf said:

Get a real PP

Get to at least .500 in extra time.

 

True. The better goalie and at least one good forward should help both of those, not that strategic things shouldn't be looked at.

 

The difference between our PP and the #10 PP was 2.5%, or 2.5 goals per 100 power plays. One really good forward can close that.

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We have 15 million in cap from this years team while needing to re-sign TT.  I still am expecting we don't make big splashes.  2 reasons:

1.  History says otherwise

2. We have 3 talented Dmen we have to re-sign next offseason at 3-5 million a piece and Lindholm. How much do we save in preparation for a big spending offseason next year?

 

we might get a guy that can get us 10-15 goals to meet Rem's well calculated goals needed while expecting young forwards to improve.  The goalie would be Halak or older starter that can take load off Ward.  Maybe its pessimism or maybe its realism.

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As of 20 April, here's what we have for next year (courtesy of nhlnumbers.com)

 

Forwards    M USD  ->  NHL Level total = 23.635 M (7 players)
Staal, Jordan    6.000
Skinner, Jeff    6.000
Rask, Victor    4.000
Lindholm, Elias    2.900
Stempniak, Lee    2.500
Aho, Sebastian    0.925
Nordstrom, Joakim    1.300
Tolchinsky, Sergey    0.650
Zykov, Valentin    0.685
Wallmark, Lucas    0.725
Poturalski, Andrew    0.925
McKeown, Roland    0.767
Gauthier, Julien    0.925
Saarela, Aleksi    0.767
Roy, Nicolas    0.730
Bishop, Clark    0.720
Ganly, Tyler    0.690

 

RFA
Teravainen, Teuvo
McGinn, Brock
Di Giuseppe, Phillip
Nestrasil, Andrej

 

Defense  M USD  ->  NHL Level total = 8.934 M (5 players)

Faulk, Justin    5.500
Hanifin, Noah    0.925
Slavin, Jaccob    0.792
Pesce, Brett    0.892
Murphy, Ryan    0.825
Fleury, Haydn    0.833
Bean, Jake    0.925
McKeown, Roland    0.767
Wesley, Josh    0.720

 

RFA
Dahlbeck, Klas
Carrick, Trevor
Karlsson, Erik

 

Goalies M USD  ->  NHL Level total = 6.100 M (2 players)

Ward, Cam    3.100
Lack, Eddie    3.000
Nedeljkovic, Alex    0.843

 

I fully expect us to resign Teravainen, McGinn, and Di Giuseppe.  Hopefully the total for all three guys does not exceed 5M.  That will give us 10 Forwards, 5 defensemen, and 2 goalies and total salary will be under 45M.  It is reasonable to assume we will lose a forward to Vegas (probably Nordstrom, Stepniak, or Di Giuseppe) so we will head into the draft with 9 forwards, 5 defensemen and two goalies (unless the Knight take Lack) at a maximum of 44M.  Adding in the dead money of Semin and Wiz (3.3M total)  that puts us at 47-48M.  The salary cap floor should be around 58-59M next year, which means we will have to spend at least 10M to hit the cap floor.  

 

We have the cap space, picks, assets, etc... to make some real moves this offseason.  Get it done, GMRF.

 

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Good review Ironman. So roughly 10m to spend. Kind of ironic that being a budget team by choice the past few years the suits are being literally forced to spend at least 10 million to be league minimum compliant. I sure hope the goal is not just to make the league payroll minimum but to go beyond it if the talent presents itself via trade or UFA. Think what $15m could bring into town.

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OK, I'm going to take a stab at a notion.

 

The basic idea is that while this team missed the playoffs and did about the same as last year, there is hidden value in this year's team vs. last years, that, if played right, should lead to a significantly better team next year.

 

The notion is age and cost vs. wins. We were the #8 team in the league in wins per dollar spent. I was thinking we might be #1, but really the teams ahead of us had a ton of wins or absolute stud, generational players on entry level deals.

 

So lets get them out of the way:

 

#1 team for wins per dollar: Toronto. And let's face it, these guys have made a shocking turnaround, but based on having a decent base and then getting not only generational stud Auston Matthews, but also #4 overall sensation Mitch Marner, and young William Nylander. Those guys are each signed for UNDER $1 million/year. And they made the playoffs, so yeah, good times in Toronto. Tanking can work.

 

The other team with similar traits is #7 in wins/$: Edmonton, and we all know about them.

 

So 1 and 7 have insane, outliers, superstars making under $1 million/year. It would be nice, but not in our cards.

 

Teams 2-6 are (with one exception) teams that racked up huge win totals: Pittsburgh, Columbus, Washington, Blackhawks. The wins/$ favors wins over $. So those are the guys with wins. Tampa and Carolina are outliers, then there is a massive trend that becomes obvious staring at the list:

 

The better way of looking at this is from the bottom. Wins/$$ favors wins over cheapness in general.

 

Carolina is grouped in the wins/$$ of good teams, almost all playoff teams. While the bottom ten of the wins/$$ are the clear cut bad or massively disappointing teams in the league.

 

What I'm saying is this. Our cap space is listed as $16 million. The next closest was $8.9 (NJ). That is the money for a superstar, and a star. But I'm not really playing the "what if we had them last year" game, but more that this severely under-budgeted team, youngest team in the NHL did pretty well for itself considering those factors, by finishing #21. It could be fair to say this team finished #21 despite having one hand tied behind it's back, or given our age and payroll, we really should be in last.

 

And especially since we are the youngest team in the NHL, and don't have a run of super high draft picks and a generational player making less than $1million/year, it's really even more impressive.


But this is not about patting last year's team on the back. It is about seeing what using that cap space to add to this team should bring.

 

I get frustration that this gap was a self imposed this year. But if, for the moment we accept that this was part of the plan, and we are moving into a new phase of the plan this year, then it could all come together.

 

So this youngest team, sans at least two legit NHL star quality slots in payroll, still cranked out enough wins to finish #21, and #8 in wins per payroll, amidst mostly all playoff teams in the top of that list.

 

To me this suggests that there is a lot of substrate here to build on, especially considering our lack of top 3 draft picks. The basic guts of this team is young and cheap and creates more wins than it's paychecks. Yes, some will get pay raises, but still there is enough space to add two guys to a pretty good core that should keep improving.

 

Thus while the payroll increases, so to will the wins. Which is what we really care about.

 

 

Here's the link to wins/$$; http://www.clickitticket.com/cost-per-win-nhl/

 

Edited by remkin

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

So this youngest team, sans at least two legit NHL star quality slots in payroll, still cranked out enough wins to finish #21, and #8 in wins per payroll, amidst mostly all playoff teams in the top of that list.

How can I be a subjective contrarian if you give me a glimmer of hope with an objective commentary?

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On 4/20/2017 at 10:11 AM, raleighcaniac said:

Kind of ironic that being a budget team by choice the past few years the suits are being literally forced to spend at least 10 million to be league minimum compliant.

Or--it's not the least bit ironic, is what GMRF has been planning around, and is exactly what the vast majority of this board has been saying would happen as Eric, Cam, and Semin cleared the books and the wheels of the ExDraft began to grind. 

 

Perhaps, were you not so determined to be...

 

On 4/20/2017 at 4:34 PM, raleighcaniac said:

a subjective contrarian 

over the past year, you'd have seen it coming, too.

 

Just sayin'.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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