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Just now, LakeLivin said:

 

If it worked it would cost us two 1st round picks, a second, and a third. Which I'd gladly pay for Draisaitl. 

 

But I'm guessing Edmonton would do whatever they needed to in order to retain Draisaitl, no matter how painful.  And then next year, in retaliation, they'd offer sheet each of Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, and maybe even Lindholm, driving up our costs to re-sign each, which we'd pretty much have to do. 

 

The whole system is pretty much useless as far as I can see.  I wonder how it could be fixed so that it actually worked?  Maybe upping the compensation to a team getting poached so that a successful offer sheet deal required an over payment (as compared to an objective "fair hockey trade", whatever that is)?  Because right now, seems like teams realistically pretty much have to match whatever offer sheet comes their way.    

 But if they matched they'd have $24 million tied up in two players with a bunch of other top draft picks to fit in over time. Where would the money come from to go after our guys? Forcing them to have to go to $10 million on Draistail? It could have some merit, crazy as it seems.

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1 minute ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I'm still not seeing how it's a risk, but okay. You're counting one bad year on a very bad team against six very strong years. By that standard, you could say Duchene is a risk too. 41 points and a -34 last season. 

 

Yes, Duchene is too. The risk is that the team was bad in part because their key players were bad. The risk is that they don't rebound with the change of scenery, new system. 

 

One mitigating factor is play outside of NHL. I think Duchene looked good in Worlds, not sure about Landeskog. 

 

Again though, I just think it is a risk vs a guy who just put up 70 points. Risk doesn't mean it will be a problem, just a consideration on price. 

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Offer sheets aren't gonna be flying on Draisaitl or anybody else. These guys (GMs) have to work together beyond waaaaay beyond Saturday. Offer sheets are a nuclear option which, used as blackmail, would ruin hockey. 

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Just now, remkin said:

The risk is that they don't rebound with the change of scenery, new system.

It's not the scenery that hurt these two. It's their GM. Both have more than proved they have the skills. If they were 30-plus and had won anything I might be marginally concerned. Both are still young and want to win--probably now more than ever.

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4 minutes ago, remkin said:

Again though, I just think it is a risk vs a guy who just put up 70 points.

Duchene hasn't put up 70 points since '13-'14, when Skog put up 65. Both have had good years since, except for this last one. So I'm really not seeing much risk in either of them.

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21 minutes ago, remkin said:

 But if they matched they'd have $24 million tied up in two players with a bunch of other top draft picks to fit in over time. Where would the money come from to go after our guys? Forcing them to have to go to $10 million on Draistail? It could have some merit, crazy as it seems.

 

Oil have $4.625m coming off their cap after this season as a buried contract and buyout expire.  If it came down to it, they've already talked about perhaps moving RNH, who has a $6m hit per year.  I dunno, I don't think they'd have of a choice but to match an offer sheet, and maybe Draisaitl takes a shorter term with Edmonton on this contract if they're significantly overpaying him? 

 

As far as retaliation, I've got to believe that an "over valued" offer sheet to our d-yutes won't be anywhere near what Draisaitl will be getting.  And the Oil could "sheet" all 3 of our d-yutes with the risk that they'd have to follow through with, what, at most 1 of them, if even that?

 

I'd love to get Draisaitl, but I just don't see it happening via an offer sheet.  Top calls it a "nuclear option", I'd throw in a touch of "scorched earth campaign" on some ground that, while currently occupied by the enemy, we might inhabit down the future.   

Edited by LakeLivin

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Given that it's only worked once in recent history it isn't likely, but just seems more tempting than usual. And the prize is worth it. We can match most of our offers and we still have Fleury and Bean. 

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 I'm pretty sure we will tender Slavin, Pesce, Hanifan and Lindholm at a point where a team would have to give up at least one first round pick to sign them.  That means the Oil would only be able to revenge sheet 1 of our yutes, because they only have 1 first round pick to offer in compensation if we do not match.

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Unless of course, several teams ganged up on us and each offer sheeted a different player.  And imagine the can of worms that would open up.

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Latest PODCAST from Mike and Michael

 

CanesCast returns to recap a busy last week that included both the expansion draft and NHL Draft. We also look ahead to Prospects Development Camp, Summerfest and free agency.

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7 minutes ago, ironman87 said:

 I'm pretty sure we will tender Slavin, Pesce, Hanifan and Lindholm at a point where a team would have to give up at least one first round pick to sign them.  That means the Oil would only be able to revenge sheet 1 of our yutes, because they only have 1 first round pick to offer in compensation if we do not match.

Good point.

 

4 minutes ago, ironman87 said:

Unless of course, several teams ganged up on us and each offer sheeted a different player.  And imagine the can of worms that would open up.

 

Or, if the Oil were angry enough it wouldn't be hard to pick up additional 1st round picks from some of the better teams who know they won't be picking until the end of the 1st round, anyways.  Scorched earth stuff.

Edited by LakeLivin

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For the moment I have given up on a top 6 as a FA signing. I think we will get but probable later. I'm hoping we can sign some 3rd and 4th line depth that will allow us some room to make a trade later.

 

I hope I'm wrong and RF could fool me because I would love to see what a Francis jaw dropping signing or trade looks like.

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I'm still not sure if we could bring Stalberg back if we want to.  I know I read something about not being able to re-sign anyone you traded after 1/1/17 until 1/18, but that was a long time ago and I haven't been able to find anything about it since.  I know that Vegas can't trade a player they got in the expansion draft back to his old team for a while, so I wonder if what I read earlier was a misconception based on the "Vegas rule".   I asked M. Smith about it for his tweetmail publication tomorrow, be interesting to see if he includes it in his list of questions.    

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10 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

I know that Vegas can't trade a player they got in the expansion draft back to his old team for a while

 

I don't think that is correct. I think they can't trade a player they got through trade back to the original team but can trade back players they picked in the expansion draft back to that team or any other.

I will be watching to see M. Smiths clarification.

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6 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

I know that Vegas can't trade a player they got in the expansion draft back to his old team for a while, so I wonder if what I read earlier was a misconception based on the "Vegas rule".

 

That is almost exactly backwards. Vegas can trade their picks back to their original teams if they want to as of right now. Several articles on this came out last week and Ottawa was actively looking to get Methot back before Dallas took him. And there is a trade moratorium on players traded away before the expansion draft going back to their original teams, but I don't know the cut off dates on either when the original date occurred and when the original teams can get them back.

 

Here is one of those articles.

 

 

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

Fleury is not a cut rate prospect. He was the #2 D man taken, he has the perfect phenotype, he's a smooth skater, and he finished strong in Charlotte. He's on an entry level and could well become a top pair if not at least top 4 D man for years for a team. Offering him plus a first rounder for a guy with only two years left on his deal is still valuing their guy,

 

I totally agree 

 

All need to keep in mind what we have seen recently is the exception not the general rule for DMen to play early.  Fleury's pedigree, size, and speed point more to a top 2 pairing.  If he develops on a normal pace.  Faulk/Hanifin/Slavin etc.. were NOT on the usual Dman development timeline.  I would hate to see him go quite yet personally.  

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9 minutes ago, MinJaBen said:

 

That is almost exactly backwards. Vegas can trade their picks back to their original teams if they want to as of right now. Several articles on this came out last week and Ottawa was actively looking to get Methot back before Dallas took him. And there is a trade moratorium on players traded away before the expansion draft going back to their original teams, but I don't know the cut off dates on either when the original date occurred and when the original teams can get them back.

 

Here is one of those articles.

 

Thanks Min.  That will teach me to take what's on Wikipedia at face value, lol.  I've been interested in the details about this for months but couldn't find confirmation up until now.

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2 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Thanks Min.  That will teach me to take what's on Wikipedia at face value, lol.  I've been interested in the details about this for months but couldn't find confirmation up until now.

 

Lake I don't know about you but this was such an evolving process and rule adds and clarification kept on coming late into the process. For me it was just so confusing. Every time I thought I understood something I learned I was wrong. I'm so happy it is almost over.

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54 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

Good point.

 

 

Or, if the Oil were angry enough it wouldn't be hard to pick up additional 1st round picks from some of the better teams who know they won't be picking until the end of the 1st round, anyways.  Scorched earth stuff.

 

http://mynhltraderumors.com/2017-nhl-offer-sheet-draft-compensation-for-signing-restricted-free-agents-2008-2017/2017/06/02/

 

According to this, teams can only use their own picks as offer sheet compensation.  So fortunately for us, they would only be able to offer sheet one guy.  But I still could believe a collusion angle if we rocked the status quo and presented an offer sheet to Draisaitl.  Of course, I do not know what sort of collusion lawsuit could be brought to bear if that happened.   Heck I say go for it.  Two firsts, a second, and a 3rd for Draisaitl?  Sure...

 

 

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24 minutes ago, ironman87 said:

 

http://mynhltraderumors.com/2017-nhl-offer-sheet-draft-compensation-for-signing-restricted-free-agents-2008-2017/2017/06/02/

 

According to this, teams can only use their own picks as offer sheet compensation.  So fortunately for us, they would only be able to offer sheet one guy.  But I still could believe a collusion angle if we rocked the status quo and presented an offer sheet to Draisaitl.  Of course, I do not know what sort of collusion lawsuit could be brought to bear if that happened.   Heck I say go for it.  Two firsts, a second, and a 3rd for Draisaitl?  Sure...

 

I'm learning some good stuff today. :grin:

 

Here's another point from your link that could factor into the equation:

AAV for determining compensation to the poached team is calculated by dividing the total compensation offered by the lesser of the length of the contract or by 5.

 

So the best we could offer Draisaitl while avoiding having to compensate Edmonton with four 1st round picks is $49m over 5 years.  Longer term than that would cost us the four 1st rounders.  

Edited by LakeLivin

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That would be a whale of an offer sheet.  Would Draisaitl want a longer term?  He may want more money after 5 years if he turns out to be one of the 10 best players in the NHL and the salary cap goes up....

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This talk about offer sheets made me wonder how vulnerable we might be next year.  Looks like the max offer at each level of compensation to the "poached" team went up 4.5% from last year to this.  If that increase is the same next year, here's what the upper limits for a couple of categories would be:

$2.1m - $4.1m:   2nd round pick

$4.1m - $6.2m:   1st and third round pick

 

I'm guessing that Pesce and Hanifin might end up somewhere in the 1st range and Slavin and Lindholm in the second (I'm counting on Lindy having an absolutely smashing breakout year :crossfingers:).  So a team could concurrently offer sheet Slavin or Lindy at up to $6.2m and either Pesce or Hanifin at up to $4.1m.  I'm sure the Canes would match, and we don't have cap issues, so the only risk would be perhaps driving up the price on 2 of our RFAs a bit.

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Well Chicago is further jacked with their cap today.  They are being hit with a 3.558 million bonus overage to be applied to their cap this year.  Could we continue our Carolina Blackhawks line? If they are granted LTIR for Hossa they would be 1.5 million under the cap after the bonus overage is added.

 

They need winger and D depth.  I don't see us giving them TVR back (which we should be able to, if LV could trade them back why couldn't we).  How about we get a defender from LV, a 2019 2nd and Carrick, trade the defender with half cap hit and Nordstrom or McGinn for Anisimov?  Anisimov is 4.5 for 4 years and he is 29.  

 

The deal would save them 2 million in cap and use that with the 1.5 million space to get Gagner, who they favor.  

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5 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

This talk about offer sheets made me wonder how vulnerable we might be next year.  Looks like the max offer at each level of compensation to the "poached" team went up 4.5% from last year to this.  If that increase is the same next year, here's what the upper limits for a couple of categories would be:

$2.1m - $4.1m:   2nd round pick

$4.1m - $6.2m:   1st and third round pick

 

I'm guessing that Pesce and Hanifin might end up somewhere in the 1st range and Slavin and Lindholm in the second (I'm counting on Lindy having an absolutely smashing breakout year :crossfingers:).  So a team could concurrently offer sheet Slavin or Lindy at up to $6.2m and either Pesce or Hanifin at up to $4.1m.  I'm sure the Canes would match, and we don't have cap issues, so the only risk would be perhaps driving up the price on 2 of our RFAs a bit.

 

I think you will see Francis be proactive this summer and sign all three to some contract so as to avoid any offer sheet shenanigans. Same as GMPC in Edmonton getting McCash all signed this year so he doesn't have to deal with it next year.

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6 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

This talk about offer sheets made me wonder how vulnerable we might be next year.  Looks like the max offer at each level of compensation to the "poached" team went up 4.5% from last year to this.  If that increase is the same next year, here's what the upper limits for a couple of categories would be:

$2.1m - $4.1m:   2nd round pick

$4.1m - $6.2m:   1st and third round pick

 

I'm guessing that Pesce and Hanifin might end up somewhere in the 1st range and Slavin and Lindholm in the second (I'm counting on Lindy having an absolutely smashing breakout year :crossfingers:).  So a team could concurrently offer sheet Slavin or Lindy at up to $6.2m and either Pesce or Hanifin at up to $4.1m.  I'm sure the Canes would match, and we don't have cap issues, so the only risk would be perhaps driving up the price on 2 of our RFAs a bit.

 

I expect GMRF to begin contract negotiations with them ASAP.  We could see a couple signed mid year to avoid all that mess.

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