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Off-Season Talk 2017

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I certainly think the expansion draft kicked the possibility of high octane talent acquisition down the road a year for year.  Just when EStaal and Ward came off, the future was muddied by having to factor in expansion draft factors.  If RF had spent the assets last summer to acquire players, he would have lost something else in the expansion draft which would have doubled the cost of the trades.

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Dave, I think you may be onto something with regards to Franchise really sitting back last summer and only grabbing a few players here and there rather than going for the big splash....

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52 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

I certainly think the expansion draft kicked the possibility of high octane talent acquisition down the road a year for year.  Just when EStaal and Ward came off, the future was muddied by having to factor in expansion draft factors.  If RF had spent the assets last summer to acquire players, he would have lost something else in the expansion draft which would have doubled the cost of the trades.

 

Pretty damn good point about the cost doubling.

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It just seems pretty obvious to me that expending assets in trades and bringing in a couple of more guys that will need expansion draft protection is only going to result in a player getting exposed that the team will then lose with no compensation.  You have to look at that as part of the cost of the trade.

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Yeah SD, yet another piece in the evidence that suggests this is a bit of a perfect storm as the time for moves to happen.

 

I think Francis is doing his typical undersell, close to the vest, and is lining things up to undersell over-deliver,  but Peters is signalling with a megaphone and semaphore flags that this is it, make no mistake about it.

 

I will say that Francis did try to make moves last year, but I also think he was very disciplined in those potential moves, ie. he was not going to pay a lot for that muffler. This year though, I think he is not just shopping for deep discounts or sales, but will pay for the right piece, both in money and prospect/picks.

 

In addition to the point about not picking up a guy just to have to protect him, here are other reasons supporting moves this off-season:

 

1. Bad salaries mostly gone.

2. Gotten past "no Eric" shadow. Next year, E is not an issue at all.

3. Remaining team built on draft and prospect trades, has done well for it's age, experience, and payroll. There are very solid pieces at good prices.

4. Huge Cap space.

5. Lots of nice prospects both for the team, and to trade.

6. Lots of second and third round draft picks, and a pretty high first rounder to trade.

7. A clear notion emerging of what the team needs to push to the next level.

8. An expansion team that might be open to a quality for quantity deal.

9. An expansion draft that we are well positioned for, and can hopefully shake loose a player or two from.

10. A growing awareness that this team and market NEEDS at least two major upgrages, and could use a splash.

 

Going into this year with the same basic team is just a no go this year. Peters has all but screamed it, and then, a bit later Francis said he and Peters are on the same page.

 

It may be easier said than done, but I really do expect moves this off-season, and I think Francis wants to make that splash. Hard to predict he will, since the guy has to be there, but I'm looking for it.

Edited by remkin

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Some really good stuff about some of our prospects that are tearing it up in Junior Hockey playoffs.

 

https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/in-the-system-hurricanes-prospects-shine-in-chl-playoffs/c-288991694

 

It is getting difficult to follow our prospects because so many of them are doing so well. That article alone mentions: Foegle, Kuokkanen, Gauthier, Steven Lorentz, Noah Carrol, Spencer Smallman, Nicholas Roy, and goalies Booth and Helvig.

 

Lorentz kind of blossoming in these playoffs with 20 points in 8 games, and leading his team as Captain also to two sweeps. 7th rounder two years ago. Just earned himself a pro contract.

 

We do need a couple of NHL guys next year, but after that, the pipeline looks very rich.

 

As always there is a list of some of them here: http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23777-ranking-the-prospects-an-ongoing-effort/

 

Edited by remkin

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Nashville 

wondering if anyone else heard this:

watching nsh v blackhawks. And believe me this sounded crazy but at some point during the announcers talking back and forth the color guy started talking about how the team had put in place a deal for season tix holders that if the team didn't get in the playoffs they would get a partial refund!!!!  How cool would that be ? I support the team here but man we get raises in price parking increases etccc instead of that ?   Hoping I heard wrong lol if not talk about smart way to get season tick sales in.   

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1 hour ago, caryhurricanes said:

Nashville 

wondering if anyone else heard this:

watching nsh v blackhawks. And believe me this sounded crazy but at some point during the announcers talking back and forth the color guy started talking about how the team had put in place a deal for season tix holders that if the team didn't get in the playoffs they would get a partial refund!!!!  How cool would that be ? I support the team here but man we get raises in price parking increases etccc instead of that ?   Hoping I heard wrong lol if not talk about smart way to get season tick sales in.   

 

That's not unprecedented.  I remember when I used to follow the NBA more closely, the Atlanta Hawks did that for their fans 10 years or so ago.  Would be cool though.

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Florida did something like that a few years ago when they had been out of the playoffs about as long as we have now. They missed the playoffs that year too if I'm not mistaken. But it's refreshing when management compensates STHs for lack of success.

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Food credit. Playoff credit.  It is all mumbo jumbo.  I wouldn't get too excited about it.  Just make the %*&^ playoffs.

 

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On 4/20/2017 at 1:02 PM, remkin said:

OK, I'm going to take a stab at a notion.

 

The basic idea is that while this team missed the playoffs and did about the same as last year, there is hidden value in this year's team vs. last years, that, if played right, should lead to a significantly better team next year.

 

The notion is age and cost vs. wins. We were the #8 team in the league in wins per dollar spent. I was thinking we might be #1, but really the teams ahead of us had a ton of wins or absolute stud, generational players on entry level deals.

 

So lets get them out of the way:

 

#1 team for wins per dollar: Toronto. And let's face it, these guys have made a shocking turnaround, but based on having a decent base and then getting not only generational stud Auston Matthews, but also #4 overall sensation Mitch Marner, and young William Nylander. Those guys are each signed for UNDER $1 million/year. And they made the playoffs, so yeah, good times in Toronto. Tanking can work.

 

The other team with similar traits is #7 in wins/$: Edmonton, and we all know about them.

 

So 1 and 7 have insane, outliers, superstars making under $1 million/year. It would be nice, but not in our cards.

 

Teams 2-6 are (with one exception) teams that racked up huge win totals: Pittsburgh, Columbus, Washington, Blackhawks. The wins/$ favors wins over $. So those are the guys with wins. Tampa and Carolina are outliers, then there is a massive trend that becomes obvious staring at the list:

 

The better way of looking at this is from the bottom. Wins/$$ favors wins over cheapness in general.

 

Carolina is grouped in the wins/$$ of good teams, almost all playoff teams. While the bottom ten of the wins/$$ are the clear cut bad or massively disappointing teams in the league.

 

What I'm saying is this. Our cap space is listed as $16 million. The next closest was $8.9 (NJ). That is the money for a superstar, and a star. But I'm not really playing the "what if we had them last year" game, but more that this severely under-budgeted team, youngest team in the NHL did pretty well for itself considering those factors, by finishing #21. It could be fair to say this team finished #21 despite having one hand tied behind it's back, or given our age and payroll, we really should be in last.

 

And especially since we are the youngest team in the NHL, and don't have a run of super high draft picks and a generational player making less than $1million/year, it's really even more impressive.


But this is not about patting last year's team on the back. It is about seeing what using that cap space to add to this team should bring.

 

I get frustration that this gap was a self imposed this year. But if, for the moment we accept that this was part of the plan, and we are moving into a new phase of the plan this year, then it could all come together.

 

So this youngest team, sans at least two legit NHL star quality slots in payroll, still cranked out enough wins to finish #21, and #8 in wins per payroll, amidst mostly all playoff teams in the top of that list.

 

To me this suggests that there is a lot of substrate here to build on, especially considering our lack of top 3 draft picks. The basic guts of this team is young and cheap and creates more wins than it's paychecks. Yes, some will get pay raises, but still there is enough space to add two guys to a pretty good core that should keep improving.

 

Thus while the payroll increases, so to will the wins. Which is what we really care about.

 

 

Here's the link to wins/$$; http://www.clickitticket.com/cost-per-win-nhl/

 

#1 in wins per dollar means nothing if you continue to miss the playoffs.  We all can glorify meaningless stats all we want but the bottom line is you either make the playoffs or you don't.  I think the team showed progress but I also think this team needs serious help you even have a chance at making the playoffs with the way the Metro is.

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11 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

#1 in wins per dollar means nothing if you continue to miss the playoffs.  We all can glorify meaningless stats all we want but the bottom line is you either make the playoffs or you don't.  I think the team showed progress but I also think this team needs serious help you even have a chance at making the playoffs with the way the Metro is.

 

Actually wins/dollar has correlated pretty well with long term success. But that's not my point, especially since wins is in the formula, so of course it correlates with success.

 

The point is that wins/dollar in our case (low dollars) means that there are lots of dollars left to add to a team that did pretty well for age and dollars spent.  Thus the point is exactly pertinent to your last line. The team needs help, and can afford to go get it. But also that IF it gets it, there is an underlying, young, improving team to add to. It is a way to estimate how good an undermanned, very young team is or might be if upgraded.

 

Since we can only guess at the actual moves made, the point is that this team is worthy and ready for a couple of significant moves.

 

If Francis doesn't add to this team, then I'll be a pessimist too. I'll also be shocked.

Edited by remkin

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Ron clearly wants to add to the team, and seems to see the same needs that are discussed on this board. The question is how much flexibility and $$$ PK gives him to get what he wants. Semin (barf) and arguably the trade for Jordan are the only times In recent memory that PK has really opened the wallet to try to upgrade the team.

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Just saw our team linked to TJ Oshie for some incredible $. I could and have liked that player for top 6, but no way at the amt given? Can't locate the site now to reference, but thoughts?

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52 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Just saw our team linked to TJ Oshie for some incredible $. I could and have liked that player for top 6, but no way at the amt given? Can't locate the site now to reference, but thoughts?

 

 

Where do i sign up?

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I'd be curious about the source.  I wouldn't go that far with the checkbook, but i could certainly see throwing some money his way.  He outscored and outgoaled every Hurricane not named Skinner, and while of course he was the beneficiary of playing with better linemates than Skinner, he could still bring some serious firepower here.  And a natural RW, no less.  You want an immediate top-line RW to either replace or displace Stempniak, pow.  Bring in a comparable ~60-point center to put between Skinner and Oshie and i'm already feeling pretty darned good about the state of our forwards.

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I'd be more concerned about the term than the money. Oshie is 30. 7 years is too long. But in general the nice thing about a UFA is you don't have to give anyone up to get them. I'd probably do it for 5 years, especially if he has no or a limited NTC. Even if we get 4 really good years, we can handle that last year, plus, we've got picks and prospects and ways to fix things down the road.

 

 

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Oshie is an interesting angle...but throwing anything more than a 5 year contract at any player over 30 is a pretty moronic thing to do nowadays given the rash of injuries and concussion issues.  I agree with rem...5-6 mil for 5 years with a NMC.

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On 4/21/2017 at 11:26 AM, super_dave_1 said:

It just seems pretty obvious to me that expending assets in trades and bringing in a couple of more guys that will need expansion draft protection is only going to result in a player getting exposed that the team will then lose with no compensation.  You have to look at that as part of the cost of the trade.

It's absolutely obvious, and has been since expansion was announced, to everyone but those who are only happy when there's something to complain about.

 

9 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Just saw our team linked to TJ Oshie for some incredible $. I could and have liked that player for top 6, but no way at the amt given? Can't locate the site now to reference, but thoughts?

Actually the plan is get Oshie, then convince Alex to come back, in hopes they can find some of their Caps chemistry.

 

Oh wait--that WOULD HAVE BEEN the plan if JR was still in charge.

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As I was watching the Caps/Leafs game yesterday, they mentioned that Washington has a big decision to make regarding Oshie as he's a UFA.  To me he would look really good in a Hurricanes sweater.  We will have to spend 11-12 million just to get to the cap floor next year, so we can be agressive and overpay for a guy like Oshie.  He would definitely answer the need for a scoring forward with some grit.  And he's good at the shootout too, which would solve another of our problem.  

 

I also watched Brian Boyle in the same game play and thought to myself he would be a nice 4th line center.  Not sure he has the foot speed for Peters liking...

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