Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
LakeLivin

The Great #1 Goalie Thread

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

And btw, where is Leighton?

 

 

Leighton had surgery - though darned if i know what kind of surgery - in mid-March and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  He's back but as the backup because McCollum has been doing well and because he's likely a little cold.  Their stats in Charlotte are comparable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. All these comparisons of GAA and save percentage assume every goalie faced the same quality of shots, had the same defense (and this is not only played by defenseman) in front of them, and every team played the same system. More aggressive offensive teams likely give up more quality scoring chances against. And I'm not advocating keeping Cam as our starter by any means, but in 11 years since the Stanley Cup, how many years has he been overused because our backups were inadequate. I'd say nearly all of them. I'd say with a quality 1A, Cam could well be a solid 1B. Or a very solid backup. And for a variety of reasons, Eddie has never been given the crease for a consistent run of games. Maybe when he was healthy, he didn't earn it. Clearly, one of them needs to go, but all the numbers floating around about potential replacements make my head spin.

 

Regarding McCollum, I just saw his name reading about the Checkers playoff games. Is he considered a prospect or has he been in the AHL a while? And btw, where is Leighton?

 

Well, ah, I used to make those excuses for Ward when he was facing more shots than anybody in the league with a horrid defense.  The defense is better and the shots against is down, but yet, here we are again.  I get that stats need to be viewed with a grain of salt, but I think save % is one of the most reliable stats out there to be used as a measuring stick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. All these comparisons of GAA and save percentage assume every goalie faced the same quality of shots, had the same defense (and this is not only played by defenseman) in front of them, and every team played the same system. More aggressive offensive teams likely give up more quality scoring chances against. And I'm not advocating keeping Cam as our starter by any means, but in 11 years since the Stanley Cup, how many years has he been overused because our backups were inadequate. I'd say nearly all of them. I'd say with a quality 1A, Cam could well be a solid 1B. Or a very solid backup. And for a variety of reasons, Eddie has never been given the crease for a consistent run of games. Maybe when he was healthy, he didn't earn it. Clearly, one of them needs to go, but all the numbers floating around about potential replacements make my head spin.

 

Regarding McCollum, I just saw his name reading about the Checkers playoff games. Is he considered a prospect or has he been in the AHL a while? And btw, where is Leighton?

 

11 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

 

Well, ah, I used to make those excuses for Ward when he was facing more shots than anybody in the league with a horrid defense.  The defense is better and the shots against is down, but yet, here we are again.  I get that stats need to be viewed with a grain of salt, but I think save % is one of the most reliable stats out there to be used as a measuring stick.

 

This is a good reason to look at the high danger, medium danger and low danger save percentages. Good teams give up more of the latter while bad teams give up more of the former....and their goalie's overall save percentages suffer accordingly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, MinJaBen said:

 

 

This is a good reason to look at the high danger, medium danger and low danger save percentages. Good teams give up more of the latter while bad teams give up more of the former....and their goalie's overall save percentages suffer accordingly. 

 

Is there a place that keeps those stats? Because I wouldn't mind seeing that exact thing.

 

I do believe that Cam, over the years has faced more point blank shots than average, but where do you find those stats? Have we all watched every game of every goalie in the NHL? Even then, would our subjective be more accurate than stats?

 

I get that stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, but trusting subjective opinions has to be taken with a pound of salt. Better stats would be better though.

 

Other goalies face quality chances every night too, even goalies with decent defenses. So, when trying to compare goalie save percentages and quality of shots faced, it is impossible unless someone keeps that stat, which, if it is kept is of course is another stat, and open to dismal as a damn lie.

 

As to Cam, I have to think that our current defense is not so terrible that it would adjust for Cam and Eddie being at the very bottom of the pile.

 

And how would we know what this team might do with a good NHL starting goalie? We haven't had one in years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, remkin said:

Is there a place that keeps those stats? Because I wouldn't mind seeing that exact thing.

 

Yes, Corsica Hockey tracks these stats. War-on-Ice also used to track them. Here are some notable goalies due to reputation or availability (all 5v5 situations for 2016-2017):

 

                               Sv%                       Low Danger Sv%         Medium Danger Sv%     High Danger Sv%

C. Ward:                91.28                            98.32                              91.42                             77.64

E. Lack:                 92.15                            98.79                              92.91                             80.58

 

A. Dell:                   94.88                            99.47                               94.05                             87.23

S. Darling:              93.74                            97.31                               94.67                             86.52

A. Raanta:              93.31                            98.47                               92.77                             84.09

P. Grubauer:           93.98                            99.43                               93.94                             83.70

 

B. Bishop:              92.45                           98.85                               90.75                             82.14

B. Elliott:                92.12                            97.82                              93.25                             79.13

M.-A. Fleury:          91.69                            98.63                               91.09                             81.62

 

C. Price:                 93.59                            97.65                               92.44                             86.60

S. Bobrovsky:        93.87                            97.90                               93.93                             86.43

 

 

I think I might take a chance on Aaron Dell given the stats. He only has 20 NHL starts, however, so some sample size risk.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is pretty cool Min. Darling looks pretty dang good based on those numbers too. And Lack looks better than Ward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, Lack didn't have to play like 25 out of 27 games because Cam fell down in practice, and Cam was not practicing headers with a soccer ball 1 day after returning from a concussion, thereby suffering a second concussion. I think Leighton played 2 games during Eddie's sabbatical. Maybe Cam wasn't as sharp playing back-to-backs and 3 in 4 days. Did Eddie do that once all season? And, should you factor in the lapse of judgment in heading a soccer ball coming off a concussion in deciding who to keep? I suspect if either goalie is part of a trade to bring in someone new, he who leaves will be determined by our trading partner. That said, if the decision lies with BP and RF, I think we have 2 years of proof plus one brutal press conference to show who will be here. In the event we make the playoffs, has Eddie ever played a playoff game? Yes, it's been a long time, and there is a limited sample size, but Cam has done okay in the playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Yes, Corsica Hockey tracks these stats. War-on-Ice also used to track them. Here are some notable goalies due to reputation or availability (all 5v5 situations for 2016-2017):

 

                               Sv%                       Low Danger Sv%         Medium Danger Sv%     High Danger Sv%

C. Ward:                91.28                            98.32                              91.42                             77.64

E. Lack:                 92.15                            98.79                              92.91                             80.58

 

A. Dell:                   94.88                            99.47                               94.05                             87.23

S. Darling:              93.74                            97.31                               94.67                             86.52

A. Raanta:              93.31                            98.47                               92.77                             84.09

P. Grubauer:           93.98                            99.43                               93.94                             83.70

 

B. Bishop:              92.45                           98.85                               90.75                             82.14

B. Elliott:                92.12                            97.82                              93.25                             79.13

M.-A. Fleury:          91.69                            98.63                               91.09                             81.62

 

C. Price:                 93.59                            97.65                               92.44                             86.60

S. Bobrovsky:        93.87                            97.90                               93.93                             86.43

 

 

I think I might take a chance on Aaron Dell given the stats. He only has 20 NHL starts, however, so some sample size risk.

 

 

By way of comparison, Lack's stats from 2014-15.

 

   Sv%                       Low Danger Sv%         Medium Danger Sv%     High Danger Sv%

92.09                          98.12                                 93.35                           79.23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would have been nice to see what Lack could have done if given the crease on a regular basis.  I'd have to think it's hard to stay sharp while sitting on the bench eating corn dogs.  Alas, that ship has sailed and something must be done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

That said, if the decision lies with BP and RF, I think we have 2 years of proof plus one brutal press conference to show who will be here. In the event we make the playoffs, has Eddie ever played a playoff game? Yes, it's been a long time, and there is a limited sample size, but Cam has done okay in the playoffs.

Or, they decide Cam is the last vestige of the past and it's time for a clean break.

 

I like Cam, a lot. He's a great person, a solid organization guy. But hockey-wise, he's way past his freshness date, albeit through no fault of his own. And it's time to move on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

It would have been nice to see what Lack could have done if given the crease on a regular basis.  I'd have to think it's hard to stay sharp while sitting on the bench eating corn dogs.  Alas, that ship has sailed and something must be done.

 

Agreed, I think to an extent, this organization is probably looked at by other goalies as a place your career goes to die.  For years, we didn't value quality defense, nor did we play a defensive style of hockey, so why would a goalie want to come here?  And it's shown that whoever the coach is will just use Cam anyway, that's why I'm in favor of letting him go and maybe keep Lack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure I have posted this before.  Very long, but there really aren't many pieces that go into the detail about goaltending that this one does.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/03/the-puck-stops-here/357579/

 

Basically, I would have Joni go find this guy, and draft guys that he taught and can point us to.  The cupboard is bare on goalies.  We should always have a couple in the pipeline of high caliber.  If we can't use them at the time, they are primo trade material.

 

Need to fix the sievepipeline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finding a starting goalie really is a crap shoot.  If you look at the top 10 goalies for wins (had to pick some kind of stat) and where they came from, you will see that it's a head scratcher.

 

Holtby - 4th round

Talbot - Undrafted FA

Bobrovsky - Undrafted FA

Dubnyk - 1st round

Price - 1st round

Rask - 1st round

Jones - Undrafted FA

Allen - 2nd round

Anderson - 7th and 3rd round (damn you Freddy)

Murray - 3rd round.

 

Yes, there are three 1st rounders there, but there are just as many undrafted players.  You have to throw a lot of darts, and the one dart that hit the bullseye fell out when Anderson held out to re-enter the draft because we had all the goalies we needed in Ward.  Add in the fact that goalies often get hot for a handful of seasons and then regress back to "average at best".  GM's must buy Pepto-Bismol by the case.

 

 

 

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Goalie development is the toughest thing to gauge in hockey. When a keeper is going good, his puck vision is comparable to a great hitter in baseball saying "the ball looks like a beach ball right now."

 

One problem is that during their development, keepers are seeing such huge differences in talent, and just trying to keep up. The jump in shooting skill from bantam to juniors is crazy, then again from juniors to the ECHL, from there to the A, and of course to the NHL. We're all worried about Neids, but when he got the call for that period in Columbus this year he looked pretty solid--and if you look at his development path here, you see that he has done his best work against the best players, in international competition.

 

His current hurdle is the same one Cam faced after he won the Cup, bringing that intensity of focus to the regular grind of a long season, game in and game out. But he's got the tools, and it looks like Helvig might, too. Altshuler I'm not so sure--but better we figure it out now than after one of them gets hot in the playoffs and we've signed him to a 10-year deal with an NTC.

 

To me, the big question this off-season is this: IF we can only get one of the two clear needs we have, a top keeper and a top forward, which do you get? For me, it's an easy call. A few more saves this season in OT and shootouts and we're still playing hockey, plus we're pretty heavy with forward talent and prospects. Not so in the crease. 

 

That's not to say we can't ALSO add elite top-six talent. But *if* we don't/can't get both, I think goaltending has to be the top priority. 

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And while I think you are right on in your assessment of priorities with your analysis, top, as you are hinting from it, goalies are basically a "crap shoot". Further, seems if it's true during development, I'd say it'd be just as hard at the stage of the game, where we are attempting/are forced to choose from, ergo, NO team is about to let a quality goalie go, as hard as they appear to be to develop. I guess what I'm trying to say is "what if". That is, what if RF's dedicated attempts to secure a quality goalie end up in a failure.

 

To me, close to the admittedly no.1 priority for a goalie, must be equal priority for a scorer! That way, if Plan A fails, Plan B i becomes even more important, as we must have either one or the other, better goalie vs more scoring. Optimum would be both, but one or other has to be successful to play in playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Further, seems if it's true during development, I'd say it'd be just as hard at the stage of the game, where we are attempting/are forced to choose from, ergo, NO team is about to let a quality goalie go, as hard as they appear to be to develop.

 

Usually, that is very true. But the expansion draft and rules this year changes all of that. There are several teams that have good goalies in a backup or 1B role that will be left unprotected, thus much more available if a reasonable price can be worked out. I would target Raanta, Grubauer and Dell as trade targets.

 

Pre-expansion, I'd offer San Jose Lack (at 50% retained)+ (pick and/or Ned) for Dell. Then I'd expose Ward for the expansion draft and see if I could offer them a bribe (picks and/or prospects) to take Cam as their goaltender plus send us back one of Grubauer or Raanta. When finished, we'd have Dell and Raanta/Grubauer as 1a/1b options for the next year or more. Grubauer is RFA with arbitration rights, so I'd probably rather have Raanta as both he and Dell would still have another year on their contracts and thus could audition/compete for an extension over the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the guys in the system may eventually pan out, but none are ready for prime time now.  I really think RF makes a trade for one of the goalies vulnerable to expansion draft exposure and sends a pick and Lack the other way (with 50% retained) to give the other team a goalie to expose.  Ward gets exposed in the expansion draft and is not taken due to there being better goalies available.  Canes go into next season with an "open competition" for the starting goalie position.  The new goalie gets the crease, and Cam sits there ready to pounce when there is an opportunity.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My bet is it's a goalie like Darling or Grubauer. We'd want to get a goalie with more hockey ahead of them, not just because we are one of the youngest teams in the league, but also to buy time for the franchise to attempt to address the Goaltending prospect pool. However, the younger the goalie the less proven they are as starters. In fact, Darling and Grubauer have never been starters at the NHL level. So there's risk involved where one of those backups looking to undergo a metamorphosis into a starter could falter with a big increase in games played.

 

Also, I find many 'Canes fans are not big on Callum Booth, but he's playing with Smallman and Gauthier and like our forward prospects in Juniors, he's stepping up his play in the playoffs. Helvig also did well before his team got swept. He kind of carried his team through the first round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news about the crapshoot and the development process is that a guy can just start putting it together almost out of nowhere, and we do have some guys with potential percolating. The bad news about the crapshoot is that you can also come up empty, as several teams have.

 

Given how deep our prospect pool is, and even post trades how many picks we have, hopefully we throw a couple of darts this year too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Usually, that is very true. But the expansion draft and rules this year changes all of that. There are several teams that have good goalies in a backup or 1B role that will be left unprotected, thus much more available if a reasonable price can be worked out. I would target Raanta, Grubauer and Dell as trade targets.

 

Pre-expansion, I'd offer San Jose Lack (at 50% retained)+ (pick and/or Ned) for Dell. Then I'd expose Ward for the expansion draft and see if I could offer them a bribe (picks and/or prospects) to take Cam as their goaltender plus send us back one of Grubauer or Raanta. When finished, we'd have Dell and Raanta/Grubauer as 1a/1b options for the next year or more. Grubauer is RFA with arbitration rights, so I'd probably rather have Raanta as both he and Dell would still have another year on their contracts and thus could audition/compete for an extension over the year.

Min, I've got to disagree with you on targeting Dell as a #1 given that he's only played in 20 NHL games.  That's way too small a sample size to even consider his statistics, imo.   As I recall, Dobby had sparkling stats based on his 23(?) NHL games before we picked him up.  Unless we could get Dell with the idea that he's a good-odds raffle ticket, but that would still require picking up another goalie that I'd be comfortable with in the #1 role right now.

 

I now I'm in the minority here, but I wouldn't mind paying Fleury for 2 years IF at the same time we also were able to pick up one of the promising young goalies like Grubauer, Darling, or Raanta (or maybe even Dell) that had a good chance of becoming our #1 long term. I know that's unlikely for a number of reasons, but I wouldn't mind heading into next season with a tandem like that.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

 

To me, close to the admittedly no.1 priority for a goalie, must be equal priority for a scorer! That way, if Plan A fails, Plan B i becomes even more important, as we must have either one or the other, better goalie vs more scoring. Optimum would be both, but one or other has to be successful to play in playoffs.

 

I do get what you're saying Kjun, but Francis needs to at least come up with something on both fronts. We simply cannot let the Cam and Eddie show be the plan. Unacceptable. But just adding goaltending, does not get us there, at least not with enough buffer. For one thing even the new guy can struggle, and for another thing, we were blessed on the injury front this year with skaters. Just adding goaltending, if it is say mid range starter numbers, gets us to the cut line, but goaltending, scoring addition, and team improvement gets us over it.

 

As to the open goalie competition, that makes me very nervous (unless it is Lack vs. New Guy). For one thing, it means that we did not bring in the clear #1 guy, since Cam and Lack have both struggled to put up decent back up numbers. For another thing, if it is Cam, he has a way of getting that slot every time, and performing like a top NHL goalie, one time, about 8 years ago.

 

As to Eddie, the only time he got a run of starts was in March: Over 8 games he saved .921, and went 5-1.

 

That said, his last 3 starts in April were so-so.

 

Even with that great March, I'm not feeling the Peters-Lack thing, so he probably is eating tacos elsewhere.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

Min, I've got to disagree with you on targeting Dell as a #1 given that he's only played in 20 NHL games.  That's way too small a sample size to even consider his statistics, imo.   As I recall, Dobby had sparkling stats based on his 23(?) NHL games before we picked him up.  Unless we could get Dell with the idea that he's a good-odds raffle ticket, but that would still require picking up another goalie that I'd be comfortable with in the #1 role right now.

 

I now I'm in the minority here, but I wouldn't mind paying Fleury for 2 years IF at the same time we also were able to pick up one of the promising young goalies like Grubauer, Darling, or Raanta (or maybe even Dell) that had a good chance of becoming our #1 long term. I know that's unlikely for a number of reasons, but I wouldn't mind heading into next season with a tandem like that.

 

My scenario was not Dell as THE #1, but to use as a tandem of 1a/1b (and he is probably the 1b at least to start) with the other half of the scenario.

 

I don't get the love for MAF unless we are getting paid to take him from the Pens. His numbers over his career are only marginally better than Ward's, and he has played behind a much better team over that career. Having to pay an extra $2M for him for two more years is also bad, but then to have to pay something to get all of that....no thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

rem, I'm sorry I misstated my thought, because I did not intend it to sound like GOALIE was the single position needed, as I too think a scorer is necessary. Thus what I should have emphasized was not to put our eggs in one basket, that of prioritizing goalie over scorer, but if fail on the one front, redouble the effort on the other, however not giving up on EITHER.

 

Now, I don't know this Dell that is mentioned, but I too hope that MAF is not whom we bring in, as I share with others that he's Cam, 2nd edition and if no one else comes aboard, having either Cam or Eddie with MAF really adds, IMHO, nothing. Now, if we were to add a Darling, Graubauer, Raanta or Dell if he's a possibility, WITH MAF, than that seems like a winner. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, MinJaBen said:

 

My scenario was not Dell as THE #1, but to use as a tandem of 1a/1b (and he is probably the 1b at least to start) with the other half of the scenario.

 

I don't get the love for MAF unless we are getting paid to take him from the Pens. His numbers over his career are only marginally better than Ward's, and he has played behind a much better team over that career. Having to pay an extra $2M for him for two more years is also bad, but then to have to pay something to get all of that....no thanks.

For me it's not love for MAF.  It's not like he's my optimal outcome by any means. But we know we're not getting Bishop.  As already pointed out, any of the promising young goalies with less than several seasons under their belt are questionable as to whether they'll turn into true #1s or just had nice streaks at the beginning of their NHL careers.  Ward/ Lack clearly isn't an answer.  While Ward and MAFs career stats aren't too dissimilar, over the past 5 years MAF has not only clearly been better than Ward, I'd argue that he's been a bit better than league average.  Among our likely candidates MAF seems like the "surest" (as relates to variability) option.

 

Given his age and salary I wouldn't pay much to acquire him.  And I'm not worried about overpaying for 2 years given that I perceive him bringing a degree of stability that we desperately need.  I'd see him as sort of a 2 year rental, not our future.  But that 2 years could let us try out one of the young bucks without putting all of our eggs in a basket that we know is, to a degree, questionable.  As I originally specified, and Kajun reiterated, it would be MAF in conjunction with a Grubauer/Dell-ish partner.  I don't see MAF as a long term solution, but next year seems too important to the organization to roll the dice on just one of the promising but not fully proven young goalies.     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...