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Training Camp 2017

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Well, Brown, Samuelsson, Kichton, Miller, and Robertson have all cleared waivers :P 

 

The real questions come when some of PDG, Joorish, Carrick, or Dahlbeck go through the process.

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3 hours ago, realmdrakkar said:

26 isn't really that old when your father plays until he's 47

 

I keep forgetting the family ties. Good reminder.  He was real good last year at Traverse City but kind of of off the radar since.

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I think on D the #7 overall pick part will factor in unless there is a hugely compelling reason not to. We need to really find out about NHL Fleury, and possibly even create a trade value for him. I think he will have to play his way out of the job. Carrick would not have to just be better, he'd have to be much better and have Fleury flail to beat him out. I would expect Fleury to get every chance and then some.

 

Didn't realize it, but Chelios is actually older than Dahlbeck. But I doubt Dahlbeck goes down. My guess is he is a 7th D. We rarely dress 7, but rotate him in some, and for guys dinged up.

 

Of course these are all speculations.

 

 

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

Well, Brown, Samuelsson, Kichton, Miller, and Robertson have all cleared waivers :P 

 

The real questions come when some of PDG, Joorish, Carrick, or Dahlbeck go through the process.

Hmmmm I wonder if Carrick would make it through.  Could be a consideration for keeping him over Dahlbeck.  Dahlbeck isn't an organizational guy, a waiver claim himself.  Then again everyone will be focused on LV's Dmen, we may be able to sneak some through.

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10 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

The kid may get a cup of coffee to start the year.

I just want us to make a decision one way or the other. No tryouts during the regular season. That's what camp is for. 

 

With the depth we now have, I'd feel a whole lot better about keeping PDG with the big club if Stemp can't go on opening night (which seems almost a given for a guy his age who has already missed as much of camp as he has). Risking a kid with the obviously bright future Necas has, but who needs about 20 more pounds on his frame to be ready for the "welcome the NHL" greetings which he will get once the games mean something makes zero sense to me.

 

A couple years ago our options were more limited. Not anymore. Necas is ours for the next three years, and the brain trust has said it again and again since RF took over: "We want guys to be ready to succeed in the NHL when they get called up." That should apply to Necas, only more so. He's 18. IMO, he's either ready and we put him on the NHL roster or he's not and we don't. The importance of a fast start is too great - and the practical issues involved in carving out a temporary roster spot just for him too many - to abandon that very sound philosophy. 

 

Do we really want to risk losing guys like PDG or Jooris to waivers just to give Necas a look during the part of the schedule that's been our bug-a-boo for years? Not me. Unless there's a whole lot more going on for Stemp than is now publicly known (heaven forbid), he's inked into my top nine, with PDG, Saarela and Zykov all miles ahead of Necas for his slot on the depth chart. 

 

Until the brain trust decides Necas is 100 percent ready for a full-time NHL job, he should be headed to the A (if he can be convinced to do so), or back to CZ for another year. If, however, RF/BP think he's ready for 82+ games in this league, fantastic. Do it.

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I just think Necas is making it very hard for them to send him down.  It certainly seems like a stretch to say that he's one of the top 14 forwards in the organization at 18 years old, but maybe he is.  He may have the skill, but not be mentally and physically ready.  Glad I don't have to make these decisions from my recliner.

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I guess there are several factors that go into an 18 y/o making the NHL. There are probably more, but for a forward I'd say:

 

1. Special Talent? If you're going to rush a kid, he can't just have potential to be a nice NHL player, he has to already have the skills to contribute offensively.

2. Non offense liability? Does he get the D game enough to at least not give it all back in the D zone (the way oh say 18 yo Skinner did), or in the neutral zone?

3. Physical size. Here it is more about strength and weight than height.

4. Hit avoidance. Can the player avoid NHL hits for the most part

5. Psychology. Not sure many are actually ready at 18 yo for all that goes with traveling and playing in the NHL, but do they have some bearing about it?

6. Team needs. Is the team desperate for A. Scoring B. Fan interest.

 

Personally, I am just throwing out one amateur's opinion. But he seems to have most of those boxes checked. The two I worried about were team needs and physical size. For the most part the team does not need him, at least for A. Scoring. The team could use some fan interest, but Necas is not a #1 pick and with Darling/Williams coming on board, I don't think Necas sells many tickets. At least not right away. (Skinner did). But the line does not need him. Unless someone can't start the season......Stempniak opens that door. So it comes down to physical size, and possibly psychology, though everything I've seen would suggest this kid wants to stay if possible. He seems well adjusted that way.  

 

He is a special talent, and he is not a liability in the other zones, and I'm not sure I've seen him get hit hard in any setting. He is fast and nimble.

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The old size debate really. But what that Sports Illustrated picture of a ripped Martin St Louis in his shorts reminded me, height is only one aspect of total body size. The problem with Necas is that he is very slender for a typical NHL player. Very normal for a 6'1" teenager, but not for an NHL player.

 

The medical measure of "heft" is the Body Mass Index. Typically used to determine obesity, but it has some relevance here. The question would be, is there a BMI that is just too low to play NHL hockey? Because Necas would have to push that limit, and might the "skinniest" player in the NHL. BMI is weight/height divided again by height. (KG and Meters).

 

Just for fun I calculated the BMI for some small players, and a couple of guys Necas' height who are not thought of as small. And a couple of "big" guys.

 

Necas: 6'1": 167. BMI 22.0.

Aho: 5'11": 172. BMI 24.0

Teravainen: 5'11": 178. BMI 24.8

Zykov: 6'1": 224: BMI 29.6

J Willy: 6'1": 188: BMI: 24.8

J Gaudreau: 5'9": 157: BMI 23.2

Tyler Johnson: BMI 27.8

Matt Duchene: BMI 27.2

J Eberle: BMI 26.8

P. Kane: BMI 24.7

 

R. Getzlaf: BMI 27.1

D. Byfulglyen BMI 30.8 (and he's 6'5" too. Monster)

R. Gudas BMI 27.7

 

I'm pretty sure that Necas would by the skinniest person in the NHL, possibly by a good bit. There is that picture of Aho and TT in their street clothes from last year. They both looked like "smallish" high school chess team players. They are both considerably stouter than Necas.

 

Oh, and Zykov is pretty solidly built.

 

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I have to add two more. I was trying to find the tiniest person even in the preseason, and thinking back to last year's draft the two small even tiny guys with skill drafted in the first round were Kalier Yamamoto and Nick Suzuki.

 

K. Yamamoto: 5'8": 154: BMI 23.4

N Suzuki 5'11: 183: BMI 25.5

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OK I just have to add this one more thought to balance things out:

 

I don't know if Necas' slender build ends up being a problem, but I do think it might be the only issue. On the other side, watching the last pre-season game vs. Washington, it is more and more apparent that we are running BP's system of fast hockey better and better. Skilled guys like Aho, TT, Lindholm with our puck moving D are transitioning the puck very quickly up the ice. Necas fits that speed game. So much so, that he basically embodies it (not a body size reference). This team wants to play fast, and Necas already plays faster than anyone.

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9 minutes ago, remkin said:

OK I just have to add this one more thought to balance things out:

 

I don't know if Necas' slender build ends up being a problem, but I do think it might be the only issue. On the other side, watching the last pre-season game vs. Washington, it is more and more apparent that we are running BP's system of fast hockey better and better. Skilled guys like Aho, TT, Lindholm with our puck moving D are transitioning the puck very quickly up the ice. Necas fits that speed game. So much so, that he basically embodies it (not a body size reference). This team wants to play fast, and Necas already plays faster than anyone.

 

Which is why Peters is having such a hard time sending him back to Europe.

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I am wondering where the physicality will come from this season.  Being fast and all is great until you go up against a team like Columbus and they forecheck you into oblivion with their puck cycles and battles along the boards.

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rem, I love your BMI analysis, something I use quite frequently in my line of work(death analysis) as there is a true epidemic in this country(my county especially) related to obesity. One correction I'd make is that consideration in calculations is given to both gender as well as age. For those who are math challenged, as I am, and these calculations are more complicated than you've shown as they generally are given in metric system, as well as relate to SURFACE AREA of the body, but all one needs to do is Google BMI measurement as well as male or female, and you can get to several calculations.

 

By the way rem, youir calculation for Necas is shown as either 22 in one calculation, or 23 in another, so you are right on!!!

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

I am wondering where the physicality will come from this season.  Being fast and all is great until you go up against a team like Columbus and they forecheck you into oblivion with their puck cycles and battles along the boards.

True that, bluedevil58,but they have to catch you 1st. And there are several now who will hopefully improve on toughness.

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Kjun, I actually used a BMI calculator and included sex and age. But good points.

 

Also, as you mention BMI is typically used as a measure of body fat. Pretty much all hockey players (not named Kessell :P) have little body fat. So I'm not sure how fully it translates. But it is an indication of "mass", which physics tells us translates to force in collisions.

 

I will add this. We see these guys typically with pads and helmets and added height from skates. But when you get the chance to see a bunch of them in person, they are mostly not huge. These are not NFL linemen. Even the big guys have to skate and be nimble, especially as goons have been mostly phased out. The game is moving to speed. Sure J Staal, and some guys are big guys, but mostly I've been surprised that hockey players are not generally bigger.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

Necas: 6'1": 167. BMI 22.0.

 

Necas's size is not correct. All of the guides that have come out since the start of camp when they were remeasured have him at 6'2" 179 lbs.

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3 minutes ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Necas's size is not correct. All of the guides that have come out since the start of camp when they were remeasured have him at 6'2" 179 lbs.

 

That's still really skinny.

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2 hours ago, MinJaBen said:

 

Necas's size is not correct. All of the guides that have come out since the start of camp when they were remeasured have him at 6'2" 179 lbs.

I'm taking it from the Canes Official Website that says:

 

Martin Necas | #88

C | 6' 1" | 167 lb | Age: 18 | Carolina Hurricanes
 
 
Your numbers may be more accurate, just saying where I took mine from (for all of the other players from their team's official website).
 

 
If he's put on some muscle, all the better, but your numbers also give him an inch which keeps him pretty skinny.
 
So his BMI would be 23. Better, but still the lowest I've found.

 

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6 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

True that, bluedevil58,but they have to catch you 1st. And there are several now who will hopefully improve on toughness.

J Willy, Dahlbeck, TVR, Kruger,Jooris aren't afraid to get into the mix. Perhaps it will rub off on Pesce, Slavin, Hannifan.

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Size be damned, I don't think any of the Not Ready for Prime Time Players makes it this season.  It would be a splitting hairs deal at best, and that extra year of entry level contract may be a lot more valuable a few years down the road.  Remember that the team has a lot of good young players that are going to be getting pay raises somewhere.  I'd rather it be here, and that's where the entry level contracts help. There is more to icing a team and managing a budget than listening to a bunch of Schmos on a fan message board arguing BMI and shoe size. 

 

Fluery isn't included in this argument.  I think we all assume he's in.

 

edit: My BMI is 30.6 according to a random calculator I just find.  Where do I pick up my uniform?

Edited by super_dave_1
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2 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

Size be damned, I don't think any of the Not Ready for Prime Time Players makes it this season.  It would be a splitting hairs deal at best, and that extra year of entry level contract may be a lot more valuable a few years down the road.  Remember that the team has a lot of good young players that are going to be getting pay raises somewhere.  I'd rather it be here, and that's where the entry level contracts help. There is more to icing a team and managing a budget than listening to a bunch of Schmos on a fan message board arguing BMI and shoe size. 

 

Fluery isn't included in this argument.  I think we all assume he's in.

 

edit: My BMI is 30.6 according to a random calculator I just find.  Where do I pick up my uniform?

Good will store, Haha. I get your point though sd.

 

If we really want to overanalyze some aspect this year, I say we should look at "quick twitch reflex". The speed this team showed last night demands that just for a player to keep up?

Edited by KJUNKANE
added another thought

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