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hag65

Hagmetrics 2.0: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

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Most of this is the same as last season, except the pacing changes (2.0), so I apologize for repeating myself.  However, for completeness:

 

Background:
Quite simply, Hagmetrics seeks to provide an very simple way to see where you are in the standings, taking games in hand out of the equation.

Given that framework, it is also easy to "set a pace" for the season for making the playoffs, and see at any given time how the team is doing relative to that playoff pace.


How it works:
Subtract losses from wins in the standings.  Ignore overtime losses.  That will give you a positive or negative number (hopefully positive!)

Example:  (W-L-OTL)  8-6-2       is 8 minus 6 = +2      


You can do the math yourself if you doubt it, but the OTLs don't matter (except in tiebreakers).  8-6-2 for +2 is the same number of points as 6-4-6 for +2, (16 games, 18 points).
Note that the plus or minus value also equates to the same number of points relative to the number of games.  i.e. in this example, 18 points in 16 games is +2.


Why is this useful?

As you peruse the standings, sometimes the difference in games played varies up to around 4 games.  So a team with 4 games in hand may *appear* to be behind in the standings.  A very easy way to reconcile all of the games in hand nonsense is to quickly look at the W/L Hagmetrics value, assign the value relative to the other teams and you have a much better comparison, done very quickly almost at a glance.

 

Example:
Team A   22-13-3   (Hagmetric +9)  47 points
Team B   23-16-3   (Hagmetric +7)  49 points

Team B is ahead in the standings.  But Team A has 4 games in hand, and is clearly ahead looking at the Hagmetric count.  If they go .500 with the games in hand they end up up by 2 points, exactly what the Hagmetric count states.  
Before you think the obvious, yeah, you could do the same thing by looking at the GP and figure it out for each team but why bother?  The whole point is to make it as easy and as fast as possible, i.e. subtract losses from wins and you are done. 


How else is this useful?  (New and improved for Version 2.0!)
The other way I find this useful is to put together a "pace" for the team to make the playoffs.  93 points makes it about 50% of the time.  To make it simpler, I use 94 points, 12 points over 82 games played.  Version 1.0 used a season of 6 months to set a pace, scoring +2 each season.

 

But breaking up the season by months has its own issues.  Some months have more games than others.  Also, it takes too long for a month to go by to assess the team.

 

So when I was going through the required pace you need to end up +12, an interesting artifact occurred when you boil it down to percentage...

Total games 82 = 164 possible points.  To get 94 points you need to get 94/164 points or   57.3% of the points.

 

Here is the really freaky thing about that.  The closest fraction to that percentage is 4/7. (57.1%)

What's weird about that?  Well, what percentage do you have to win in the playoffs?   4 out of 7.  Pretty weird.

What is a 4-3 record in Hagmetrics?  +1.

 

Anyways, we can use this little tidbit and break the season into 7 game series.  12 of them, so we can keep track of our pace by tracking each 7 game segment and seeing if we managed to go +1 (8 points) over the series.  If we just win 4 out of 7 all season, we'll make it.

 

That's all.  I'll post periodic status reports every 7 games through the year as to where we are and what needs to happen moving forward.

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Early report...

 

The first 7 game segment ends 8 days from now with the TB game.

 

Canes need to get 8 points by going +1.  They are +0 after 3 games.

4 games left, they need to go 2-1-1 to get there.

 

Full report after next Tuesday's game.

 

 

P.S.  If you look today, +1 is the cut-line for the 8 slot.  It may seem we are down but we haven't played!!!

Edited by hag65

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Looks like you are almost ready for Hagmetrics 3.0. Your points percentage should work on an instant basis. Current points/possible points gives you a quick snapshot of where you currently stand. I just ran the numbers real quick and we are currently at 58.3% which is above the 57.3% cut line of 94 points. And a quick check of the other eastern teams shows we would grab the #8 spot. Also noticed Pit would drop to #7 wildcard and Phi and Col would move up. NYI are at 56.3% currently.

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Hagmetrics, where the knee-jerk reactions give way to the big picture...

 

Series 1 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +1 by the end of Series 1.
The Canes went 3-3-1 for  +0.

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

New Jersey    +4

Pittsburgh    +3

Islanders     +2

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +7

Toronto       +5

Ottawa        +3

Wildcard

Columbus      +2

Philadelphia  +1

Out
Washington    +0

Carolina      +0

Boston        +0

Detroit       -1

Buffalo       -2

Florida       -2

Rangers       -4

Montreal      -4

 

+1 is the goal and is the playoff line.  As usual.

 

Commentary

Series by series results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual
_____      ____     ______
#1         +1       0

 


The Bad News - Didn't make it, the quick start isn't so quick
The Good News - Last season the Canes were dead last in the conference at the end of October at -2.  While it may not feel like it to some folks, this is an improvement over last season so far.  The Canes are not in last, they are literally a point out of a playoff slot with respect to pace.

 

It's very early to draw any conclusions positive or negative.  However, so far, the Canes are very close to pace.

 

Looking Ahead

Series 2 has the following 7 games:

@TOR   +5

STL    +4

ANA    +1

@COL   +1

@ARI   -8

FLA    -2

@CBJ   +2

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5 hours ago, hag65 said:

Looking Ahead

Series 2 has the following 7 games:

@TOR   +5

STL    +4

ANA    +1

@COL   +1

@ARI   -8

FLA    -2

@CBJ   +2

 

We will need to go +2 to get back on pace, but a +1 would be okay.  Obviously the TOR/STL back-to-back is going to be tough, and if we don't get any points there, we'll have to win at least 4 of the remaining 5 games to get to +2.

 

Also, I wanted to add my own little playoff model, inspired by Hagmetrics, which you can see below.  Simply put, as long as the blue dots stay above the playoff line, we're doing good.  Without getting into the math, the prediction line is a prediction model based on current results, and taking into account the highs and lows of a season.  I know we have a small sample size, but for example our actual points pace is 82, while our predicted pace is around 95 points.  This of course will change as the season progresses.

 

image.png.79da1d0bdbe884fa0d3875736d4ac12b.png

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Quick October talk.

 

We are +0.   Last season we were -2 after October.

 

It's not dramatically better, but it is better.

 

We would all like to be +5 at this point, we would all be crowing about we are finally there.  But realistically no one thought we were going to be dominant and that would be dominant.  Most though the Canes could sneak into a spot, but be near the border.  That is sorta what is happening.

 

As always, this season will not be for the faint of heart.  Someday we will be talking about what it takes to win the division but it ain't now.

 

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Hagmetrics, where the emotion is left at the door and the numbers give you solace...

 

Series 2 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +2 by the end of Series 2.
The Canes went 3-2-2 for  +1 (Hey, they won series 2!)

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

New Jersey    +5

Pittsburgh    +2

Columbus      +2

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +11

Toronto       +4

Ottawa        +4

Wildcard

Washington    +2

Philadelphia  +2

Out
Islanders     +2

Rangers       +1

Boston        +1

Carolina      +1

Detroit       +0

Montreal      -2

Florida       -3

Buffalo       -4

 

 

+2 is the goal and is the playoff line.  As usual.

 

Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual
_____      ____     ______
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1


The Bad News - Still one point back of overall pace.  Poor performances in Colorado and Arizona cost the team a great 7 game series. 
The Good News - Actually held pace over the last 7 games.  Are only one point out of the playoff line after 14 games.  This is a much improved start over the past few seasons.

 

Looking Ahead

Series 3 has the following 7 games:

CHI    +0   (a surprise!)

DAL    +2

@NYI   +2

@BUF   -4

NYI    +2

NYR    +2

TOR    +4

 

5 at home, all 7 winnable games, the Canes should win this series handily and be in a playoff spot after this 7 game stretch.  If not, things get tougher soon after.

Edited by hag65
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I was away for a few days, so I couldn't post the update with Hag's post.  So, I've included our latest games through Dallas into the equation.

 

Good News - After a tough losing stretch, we've made our way back up and are very close to the playoff line.

Bad News - The prediction model isn't taking much stock in our recent upswing.  Of course, if we keep our winning ways, this line will shift up.

 

Actual Points Pace:  92.25

Predicted Points Pace:  85.78

 

image.png.f18c1b1c04270adf22d2b618d444f670.png

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9 hours ago, RNT82 said:

Bad News - The prediction model isn't taking much stock in our recent upswing.  Of course, if we keep our winning ways, this line will shift up.

 

 

Stats aren't affected by emotion, good or bad.  That's what makes them great.  They probably didn't say we should fire the coach last week either... :)

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Hagmetrics, where you hope to find good news but the numbers just don't lie...

 

Series 3 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +3 by the end of Series 3.
The Canes went 3-3-1 for  +0,  another fail 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

New Jersey    +9

Columbus      +8

Islanders     +7

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +11

Toronto       +6

Boston        +3

Wildcard

Washington    +4

Rangers       +3

Out

 

Pittsburgh    +2

Detroit       +1

Carolina      +1

Ottawa        +0

Philadelphia  -1

Montreal      -3

Florida       -4

Buffalo       -8

 

 

+3 is the goal and is the playoff line.  As usual.

 

Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual Total
_____      ____     ____________
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1

#3         +3       +1


The Bad News - More bad news than usual here.  After starting well this 7 game series, dropping the last 2 at home really represents squandered opportunities.  Favorable schedule was wasted and now things are going to be a lot tougher.  2 games behind pace now, we are going to need a sustained number of good games to recover at some point.  Lastly, while ever so close, the Canes were not quite in playoff position at the fabled Thanksgiving inflection point.
The Good News - Only 2 games out at this point, but not a lot of good news except to point out that we are better off than previous seasons at this point in time.

 

Looking Ahead

Series 4 has the following 7 games:

NSH    +8   

@CBJ   +8

@NYR   +3

FLA    -4

@VAN   +2

@SJS   +4

@LAK   +4

 

5 on the road, 6 of 7 against opponents with a better record, ending in the 3 game western road trip.  Not looking to be easy.  The buffer we should have built during series 3 did not happen, so now we are going to have to win some tough games.  All that can be said is, if we are going to be a playoff team, stretches like this are going to be when we prove it.

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8 hours ago, hag65 said:

The Good News -

 

 

Actually the best news might be that Pittsburgh is currently on the outside.  If the Canes are going to continue their exercises in futility, might as well bring Jiminy Rutherford down with them.

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Not much to add to Hag's report.  Missed opportunities, tough stretch of upcoming games, etc.  But we did beat Smashville, so it's a good start to this series.

 

Actual Points Pace:  89

Predicted Points Pace:  88

 

image.png.6e95b4a804697813eae8fe7fbf1ce644.png

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Hagmetrics, where the Grim Reaper hovers over a .500 team like a vulture...

 

Series 4 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +4 by the end of Series 4.
The Canes went 2-2-3 for  +0,  another fail

For the 4 series so far, they have gone +0, +1, +0, +0  for overall +1. 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

                              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Columbus      +9

Washington    +7

New Jersey    +7

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +15

Toronto       +9

Boston        +5

Wildcard

Islanders     +6

Rangers       +5

 

Out

Pittsburgh    +4

Carolina      +1

Philadelphia  +0

Montreal      -1

Detroit       -2

Florida       -3

Ottawa        -3

Buffalo       -10

 

 

+4 is the goal and is the playoff line.  As usual.

 

Biggest Movers

Since the last report: 

Tampa went +4 and really extended their lead, they can basically go .500 for the rest of the season and make the playoffs.

Toronto went +3.  Washington went +3 to move out of the wildcard and into 2nd in the Metro.

In the negative...  Ottawa went -3 to fall into 2nd to last in the East (thanks Matt).  Detroit also went -3 and is fading fast.

 

Canes Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual Total
_____      ____     ____________
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1

#3         +3       +1

#4         +4       +1


The Bad News - Lost more ground.  Amazing how only just 1 game behind pace mounts up over time.  The Canes are now 3 games behind pace, and digging a deeper hole.  Clearly the Canes trend to be a fake .500 team, finishing fake .500 3 out of the 4 series and only +1 the other.  Not a lot of volatility here.  No long wining streaks or losing streaks, just steady mediocrity.  The reasons for this are hashed out in many other discussion threads so no point is discussing them here.  BUT, it is clear that without some sort of change in trajectory soon, the hole will be too deep to come out of and the Canes will finish in their traditional spot, just outside looking in.   Also think of it this way, in 10th position, the Canes need to knock out 2 out of the following 3 teams ahead of them to grab a slot,  Pittsburgh, Islanders, Rangers.  From how they have played at least 2 of these teams, do you feel confident in outplaying them?
The Good News - An odd piece of good news here is that the Canes actually moved up a position in the race from 11th to 10th.  .500 has some advantages, there are teams that can't keep this pace either. 

 

Looking Ahead

Series 5 has the following 7 games:

@ANA   +1   

@VGK   +10

@BUF   -10

CBJ    +9

@TOR   +9

@NSH   +11

BUF    -10

 

5 on the road as the hellish December schedule continues.  3 of these games however, including the next one in Anaheim are very winnable games.  Win those, and steal 2 of the others and we are now cooking with gas.  Lets see if Vegas is for real.  Columbus and Toronto we have beaten before.  So maybe, just maybe the time is right for the correction in course we need.  Hope is alive, and sometimes that is all we have as fans.

Edited by hag65
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Just like Hag said, we've lost ground.  As you can see, we're veering away from the playoff line.  Since the last time we were above the playoff line (22 points in 19 games after beating the Islanders), we've gained only 7 points in the last 9 games.

 

Actual Points Pace:  85

Predicted Points Pace:  87

 

image.png.2e088346978524cd55bad12c844bcd17.png

Edited by RNT82
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Great work RNT82.  If I taught algebra, I'd be having a lesson about slope and extrapolation right now and use your spreadsheet for some real-world examples.

Edited by wxray1
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Why I’m angrier than past seasons is that we were sold “we’re finally breaking out this year” from EVERYONE: the organization, the media, and the players.

 

and the exact opposite has happened...the organization refuses to make any changes, the media still tries to sunshine pump us as a “team on the rise,” and the players aren’t being held accountable.

 

this season is really testing my faith with this team 

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Hagmetrics, where the progress of the marathon is accurately tracked...

 

Series 5 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +5 by the end of Series 5.
The Canes went 5-2-0 for  +3,  a sweet 7 game series win and ground maker-upper

For the 5 series so far, they have gone +0, +1, +0, +0, +3  for overall +4. 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

                              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

New Jersey    +12

Washington    +9

Columbus      +9

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +19

Boston        +9

Toronto       +8

Wildcard

Rangers       +6

Islanders     +6

 

Out

Carolina      +4

Pittsburgh    +2

Philadelphia  +2

Montreal       0

Florida       -1

Detroit       -2

Ottawa        -4

Buffalo       -11

 

 

+5 is the goal.  For the first time this season the goal is 1 under the requirement to be in the playoff slot.  It may be the playoff line could end up 1 or 2 higher this season, especially with the competitive Metro, but this is usually a temporary thing.

 

Biggest Movers

Since the last report:

New Jersey went +5 and moved back into first in the Metro. 

Tampa went +4 and continued to extend their lead, they can now go 7 games under .500 for the rest of the season and still make the playoffs.

Boston went +4 to take over 2nd in the Atlantic.

In the negative... Buffalo at -1 to fall to -11 and clear last in the East.  Not a lot of negative movement in the East clearly indicating the East smacking the West around.

 

Canes Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual Total
_____      ____     ____________
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1

#3         +3       +1

#4         +4       +1

#5         +5       +4


The Bad News - Not much bad to say here.  Dropping a game 8-1 to Toronto is painful, but in the grand scheme of things is just one loss.  +4 overall is still one off the pace so still need to catch up. 
The Good News - 3 OTLs last series sunk us.  This time, 2 for 2 in OT makes a big difference.  Overall +3 made up almost all of the lost ground.  Canes are now in sole possession of 9th in the East, staring at a wildcard spot with a magic bean in their pocket.  This make or break series ended up being a big MAKE. 

 

Looking Ahead

Series 6 has the following 7 games:

MTL    +0   

PIT    +2

@STL   +9

WAS    +9

@PIT   +2

@BOS   +9

@TBL   +19

 

Well, if you have been waiting for some of the other Metro teams, here are a couple of them.  The Canes engage the Caps and Pens this series.  Believe it or not, the two Pens games may be a couple of the easier games.  4 of the 7 games are against playoff position teams, only the two Pens games and the Montreal game are not.  Once again a tough series, it seems we never get an easy time of it.  Nonetheless, you have to beat the best to be the best, so let's do it.  WOOOOOO! 

Edited by hag65
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14 hours ago, hag65 said:

 

Looking Ahead

Series 6 has the following 7 games:

MTL    +0   

PIT    +2

@STL   +9

WAS    +9

@PIT   +2

@BOS   +9

@TBL   +19

 

Well, if you have been waiting for some of the other Metro teams, here are a couple of them.  The Canes engage the Caps and Pens this series.  Believe it or not, the two Pens games may be a couple of the easier games.  4 of the 7 games are against playoff position teams

 

This really is some uphill sledding, but if you want to run with the big dogs, you have to get off the porch

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If this was mentioned earlier, my apologies, we are way behind on the 1st tie breaker so we're going to have to pass the teams ahead of us.  That could become important.

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2 hours ago, wa1010 said:

If this was mentioned earlier, my apologies, we are way behind on the 1st tie breaker so we're going to have to pass the teams ahead of us.  That could become important.

 

Great point.

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