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hag65

Hagmetrics 2.0: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

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I think these next 4 games are going to be important. Tough teams throughout this stretch, but 3 of the next 4 are home games, with one back to back road game in St. Louis of all places, then 4 on the road vs. really good teams. There are a couple of pockets of tough patches moving forward but the next 9 games are probably the toughest we have left. Love to make a move, but if we can hold our ground, we could be in pretty good shape. Start by getting the three home games.

 

One other thing. Canes seem to have a tendency to come back soft after breaks. This one wasn't that long, so hopefully not. Ideally we get the game vs Montreal tomorrow.

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Agree with the "soft after breaks" comment, rem. This seems to have been Canes' MO for as long as I care to remember. Further, I'd always been led to believe that this was a common trait for every team, but I just wonder if that was a spin our team put on it? Whatever, they need to change it tomorrow, and no excuses as our opponent, Montreal, is playing under the same condition, but have added travel also.

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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all my fellow Caniacs!  Just like Hag said, we've made up our lost ground.  We're still not on playoff pace, but we're in a better position than we were after the last series.

 

Actual Points Pace:  91

Predicted Points Pace:  87

 

image.png.bb27db62aa3b54fe3edd2ba14bd00a40.png

Edited by RNT82

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Well we got through arguably the worst of the schedule without completely going off the rails...so that’s something to be hopeful about 

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Since this is the how we're doing thread, I thought I'd put this here. But according to Patrick O Sullivan on XM yesterday, the Canes have had THE toughest schedule in the NHL in terms of quality of opponent. And that is going to be even more so after the next 7-8 games. That will even out to our advantage, especially after about Jan 25th.

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Hagmetrics, where the sun will come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun...

 

Series 6 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +6 by the end of Series 6.
The Canes went 3-3-1 for  +0,  a one point loss, but only a one point loss

For the 6 series so far, they have gone +0, +1, +0, +0, +3, +0  for overall +4. 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Washington    +14

New Jersey    +11

Columbus      +9

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +22

Boston        +13

Toronto       +9

Wildcard

Rangers       +7

Philadelphia  +4

 

Out

Carolina      +4

Pittsburgh    +3

Islanders     +3

Florida        0

Detroit        0

Montreal      -2

Ottawa        -4

Buffalo       -14

 

 

+6 is the goal.  It took +6 to be in last segment.  Now everyone has fallen and +4 is the line.  But its right in the neighborhood, with 4 teams within 1 Hag point of each other at least one will run off a few wins in the near future.

 

Biggest Movers

Since the last report:

Washington went +5 and moved into first in the Metro.  They are on a torrid pace.  Why not? it's the regular season.

Boston went +4 and is red hot. 

Tampa went +3 and continued to extend their lead, they can now go 10 games under .500 for the rest of the season and still make the playoffs.

In the negative... Buffalo at -3 to fall to -14 and clear last in the East.  Welcome to Tank Talk.

 

Canes Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual Total
_____      ____     ____________
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1

#3         +3       +1

#4         +4       +1

#5         +5       +4

#6         +6       +4


The Bad News - 2 behind pace.  Hagmetrically tied for a playoff slot but losing the tiebreaker.  Not in, not in, not in... 
The Good News - Tied for a wildcard spot is a good thing.  During this series actually were in a playoff slot in the NHL standings for a short time.  Did you look at the 3 biggest movers?  We played all 3 of them, got 1 point out of 6.  Are they big movers because they played us?  Well, all each of them got was a single win from us, so partially yes, but only partially.  We just played the top teams in the East, and came out even over the last 7.  Big picture-wise, although this hurt, we took care of business in the more winnable games like we needed to.  It's a marathon.  Also good that our nearest competitors had a bad segment too.

 

Looking Ahead

Series 7 has the following 7 games:

@WAS   +14   

WAS    +14

CGY    +6

@DET   0

VGK    +19

@PIT   +3

@MTL   -2

 

3 games against division leaders, 4 less scary.  There is light at the end of the tunnel.

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I tell you that +19 for Vegas is just amazing. Maybe they change the rules a bit for the next expansion team. But even then, to take a team of the "9th" best guy of each team and instantly become one of the best teams in the league? Dang.

 

As to the Canes, these next two Washington games are the last of the sheer brutality of the schedule. Get a couple of points in those two and then make another move.

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We actually went above playoff pace TWICE this last series (after both PIT wins).  We've got a few winnable games coming up before the all-star break, and then we start an 8-game homestand afterwards (and 11 of 14 at home through Feb).  Long story short, we need to take advantage of this.

 

Actual Points Pace:  90

Predicted Points pace:  90

 

image.png.338e8c15d2d7bc115c5b9f8da9614f5d.png

 

 

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Not feeling optimistic today. Looking at the standings, I can't help but think the teams that currently hold spots are the ones we are going to see come Spring time playing for Lord Stanley. You had to figure Pittsburgh was going to make a run at some point and get in, I mean come on. And with the surprising performances by NJ and BOS, I think that pretty much locks us out. Realistically to begin the season, I think we all knew there would maybe be some wiggle room to jump into wild cards (between a hand full of teams), but most of those teams that made it last year were going to be serious contenders again. I don't think we are any better than any of those teams in spots, certainly not enough to catch them now with who is on this roster. Thoughts?

Edited by sleekfeeder

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22 minutes ago, sleekfeeder said:

Not feeling optimistic today. Looking at the standings, I can't help but think the teams that currently hold spots are the ones we are going to see come Spring time playing for Lord Stanley. You had to figure Pittsburgh was going to make a run at some point and get in, I mean come on. And with the surprising performances by NJ and BOS, I think that pretty much locks us out. Realistically to begin the season, I think we all knew there would maybe be some wiggle room to jump into wild cards (between a hand full of teams), but most of those teams that made it last year were going to be serious contenders again. I don't think we are any better than any of those teams in spots, certainly not enough to catch them now with who is on this roster. Thoughts?

 

It's hard to be optimistic when you are a scoring starved team and you just lost one of your only dangerous scorers.

 

I think if there is one thing that can be learned by following Hagmetrics is that you can't get wrapped up in what other teams are doing, you have to take care of yourself.  If the Canes were +6 or +7 right now they would be in a slot.

 

As far as better than another team or worse than another team, that is always a point in time statement.  Injuries happen to all teams.  Chemistry issues pop up out of nowhere, or get solved for teams that have them. 

 

If you get to 94 points you have a really good shot that you made the playoffs.  The other teams will take care of balancing each other out.  Not everyone can win, there is a winner and loser in every game.

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40 minutes ago, sleekfeeder said:

Not feeling optimistic today. Looking at the standings, I can't help but think the teams that currently hold spots are the ones we are going to see come Spring time playing for Lord Stanley. You had to figure Pittsburgh was going to make a run at some point and get in, I mean come on. And with the surprising performances by NJ and BOS, I think that pretty much locks us out. Realistically to begin the season, I think we all knew there would maybe be some wiggle room to jump into wild cards (between a hand full of teams), but most of those teams that made it last year were going to be serious contenders again. I don't think we are any better than any of those teams in spots, certainly not enough to catch them now with who is on this roster. Thoughts?

 

On the plus side:

  • schedules matter, and we're past the toughest part of ours. 
  • Stempniak looks like he actually could contribute the rest of the season.
  • RF presumably has the green light to make a move (if one is available)
  • We're good enough to currently be on the fringe of a playoff spot in spite of our schedule and tepid goaltending

On the negative side:

  • Aho. 

I still think we've got a realistic shot at the playoffs.  A lot may depend on Aho.   

Edited by LakeLivin
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2 hours ago, sleekfeeder said:

Magic beans go poof!

 

Actually, isn't it kind of the opposite?  We're now collecting them again, and have to hope we can cash them in. :crossfingers:

Edited by LakeLivin

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Hagmetrics, the Dalai Lama loves it and gives Eternal Consciousness on your deathbed to all who understand it...

 

Series 7 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +7 by the end of Series 7.
The Canes went 3-4 for  -1,  what a difference the end of the second Washington game was...

For the 7 series so far, they have gone +0, +1, +0, +0, +3, +0, -1  for overall +3. 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Washington    +14

Columbus      +8

New Jersey    +8

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +22

Boston        +19

Toronto       +10

Wildcard

Philadelphia  +7

Pittsburgh    +6

 

Out

Rangers       +5

Islanders     +5

Carolina                +3

Detroit       -2 

Montreal      -3

Florida       -3

Ottawa        -8

Buffalo       -12

 

 

+7 is the goal.  The line is currently +6, but it is misleading, see commentary below...

 

Biggest Movers

Since the last report:

Boston went +6 and is scorching. +10 over the last 14.  Literally climbed into the Presidents trophy race.

Pens went +3 and snuck back into a slot.

In the negative...

Ottawa went -4 and is way out, never to return this season. 

Jersey at -3 is falling into the playoff logjam.

Florida went -3 and lost all hope.

 

Canes Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual Total
_____      ____     ____________
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1

#3         +3       +1

#4         +4       +1

#5         +5       +4

#6         +6       +4

#7         +7       +3


The Bad News - It's bad.  The Canes are in the deepest hole to date this season, 4 behind pace.  At this point, ripping off a 6-1 in the next series is necessary to catch back up to the pace.  This is where the pacing gives you a more accurate picture than the standings.  Right now, +6 would put you tied for a playoff slot... BUT...  with 6 teams between +5 and +8, with only 4 slots for them, a hot team going higher than +1 over the next 7 will reset the bar higher.  It's now tough sledding for the Canes, being the 7th team in that mix, WITH the worst record of all of them, 4 teams will make it, 3 will not.  The Canes need to leapfrog 3 teams by the end of the season. 
The Good News - The brutal part of the schedule is over.  The other piece of good news is, the season is not over.  It's a difficult scenario, but not over.  Coming soon to Raleigh:  HOME COOKIN

 

Looking Ahead

Series 8 has the following 7 games:

OTT   -8   

MTL   -3

DET   -2

SJ    +11

PHI   +7

VAN   -5

COL   +9

 

OK, this is it, it doesn't get any better than this.  6-1 is actually a possibility with this slate.  All 7 games at home.   The first 3 against scrubs.  The others... winnable.   It's too bad the hole has been dug, because right here would have been the chance to make some distance...  Nothing more to be said...  the Canes know what needs to be done.  Now go on out there and do it.

Edited by hag65
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2 minutes ago, hag65 said:

coastal_sisyphus

 

Yes, I'm doomed to the fan Underworld.  At least for a few more weeks, at which time, the gates of billionaire will open.

 

And then, all will be good with the world.

 

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The good: the time is now. Never has the opportunity been riper.

 

The bad: if we don't make a move it's going to get really ugly.

 

Make the move.

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Not much to add to Hag's post.  We know what we need to do.

 

Actual Points Pace:  87

Predicted Points Pace:  89

 

Edit:  Figured out how to break up graph into 7 game series.

 

image.png.8b4d4438f6b3080aa12cd40519255363.png

 

Edited by RNT82
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Hagmetrics, a cautionary tale for the over exhuberant...

 

Series 8 Report

The goal is +1 each series, and overall +8 by the end of Series 8.
The Canes went 4-2-1 for +2,  Not a killer record for this schedule but a ground gainer nonetheless.

For the 8 series so far, they have gone +0, +1, +0, +0, +3, +0, -1, +2  for overall +5. 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Hagmetrics

Metropolitan

Washington    +15

Pittsburgh    +9

Philadelphia  +9

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +24

Boston        +22

Toronto       +14

Wildcard

New Jersey    +7

Carolina                +5

 

Out

Columbus      +5

Islanders     +3

Rangers       +3

Florida        0

Detroit       -1 

Montreal      -4

Ottawa        -7

Buffalo       -14

 

 

+8 is the goal.  The line is currently +5.  I believe this is not going to remain 3 under pace, but this could be a strange year.

 

Biggest Movers

Since the last report:

Toronto went +4 and has no threat behind them, Florida is closest 14 games behind them.

Pens went +3 for the 2nd consecutive series and moved into a division slot.

Boston went +3 and is still hot.

In the negative...

Columbus went -3 and fell out of both a division slot and a wildcard slot. 

Rangers (-2)  Islanders (-2)  and Jersey (-1) all showing no signs of a playoff making streak.  Yet.

 

Canes Commentary

Series by series overall pace results, based on the gradual pace...

 

Series     Goal     Actual Total
_____      ____     ____________
#1         +1       0
#2         +2       +1

#3         +3       +1

#4         +4       +1

#5         +5       +4

#6         +6       +4

#7         +7       +3

#8         +8       +5


The Bad News - A 4-2-1 stretch against the easiest schedule so far seems a weaker effort than what we should have had.   If you believe history, the illusion of the playoff slot at this point is simply that, an illusion.  Usually down the stretch a few hot teams will emerge and push the pace to more than +1 every 7.  Thus, it is nice to be at +8 instead of +5 right now with some cushion against these teams.  Beware the winning streaks, those the Canes never seem to get.  The Canes are still 3 games behind the elusive 95 point pace.
The Good News - What can you say, in spite of what I said in the bad news section, there are no guarantees any of the 7 teams fighting for 4 slots (2 metro div spots and 2 wildcards) will ever get red hot.  An interesting situation now, in that there are 7 teams all between +3 and +9, and 4 slots available to them.  The Canes in the dead center of that group need to beat 3 of them, which they are currently doing.  So maybe the final number isn't +12 this season, the one thing the ultra parity of the Metro has done is made the teams all beat each other up so badly that there is no runaway team, even Washington in 1st place going 3 games under .500 the rest of the way would finish with 95 points, which is normally the cut line.  We'll just have to keep on watching to see what happens but all of the slots appear to be in play.

Finally... this is the first report where the Canes are actually sitting in a playoff slot.  How can that be bad news?

 

Looking Ahead

Series 9 has the following 7 games:

LAK   +10   

@NJD  +7

NYI   +3

NJD   +7

PIT   +9

@DET  -1

@BOS  +22

 

Clearly, looking at this schedule, the 4 metro games are crucial.  The fading Devils and Islanders need no incentive to believe they are going to contend, and wins against the Canes would energize them, while losses could kill their will.  You can't get any more important than those.  The Kings are #9 in the West and will see this game as an opportunity to get 2 points and slot into a playoff position, should be really tough.  I can't even think of what happened when we played Boston the first time, I would hope the team would search for redemption in the eyes of their fans, because it was the ugliest game we had all season.  +1 or better this series is crucial.  It's time.

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As Hag said, +12 may not be the cut line this season.  But, I'm still going to use +12 as the cutoff line, because I'm unsure where to move the playoff line honestly.  Also, 94 points is usually the playoff line as has been mentioned.  Anyway...

 

Actual Points Pace:  89

Predicted Points Pace:  89

 

image.png.c1517cfb4c9199f298f7fbed56435c35.png

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1 hour ago, RNT82 said:

As Hag said, +12 may not be the cut line this season.  But, I'm still going to use +12 as the cutoff line, because I'm unsure where to move the playoff line honestly.  Also, 94 points is usually the playoff line as has been mentioned.  Anyway...

 

Actual Points Pace:  89

Predicted Points Pace:  89

 

image.png.c1517cfb4c9199f298f7fbed56435c35.png

 

Yep... and we are going to have to up the pace to make 94, regardless of what the number ends up being.  I would doubt 89 is going to make it.

 

In other words, someone, or a group of someones, is going to get hotter.  Lets hope we are one of the someones.

Edited by hag65

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