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hag65

Hagmetrics 2.0: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

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On 2/12/2018 at 1:40 PM, hag65 said:

 

 

Looking Ahead

Series 9 has the following 7 games:

LAK   +10   

@NJD  +7

NYI   +3

NJD   +7

PIT   +9

@DET  -1

@BOS  +22

 

 

-3 after the first 6 games of this segment.  +2 overall for the season.  Behind FLA at +3 now.  The sky has fallen.  Not looking forward to reporting this after Tuesday.

 

Dispassionate Sportsclubstats ( http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html ) has us at 10% to make it now, after being 50% to make it after the LA win.

 

The only good thing I can says is SportsClubsStats has us making the playoffs over 50% of the time with 90 points (52.6% of the time).    This is +8, instead of the typical +12.  We'll see where it ends up.  Weird year, painful because it is/was ripe for the picking.

Edited by hag65
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We went horizontal this last series (1-4-2), and that's never good.  At this point, if we lose more than 4 games in regulation, we will not be able to reach the 94 point line, and with every 2 OTL's that number shrinks by 1.  However, and I'm sure Hag will point this out in his report, this is an odd year where currently +6 is in a playoff spot where it should be +9.  We're not totally out of it, but if we continue our recent play, we won't have to worry about playoffs for long.

 

Actual Points Pace:  85

Predicted Points Pace:  88

 

image.png.92a843272a57abce01a1d4497e0c7046.png

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We went -1 for the last series, sit at +1 overall, and trail significantly to the current playoff mark of +9.  Florida sits just outside at +8.  94 points may not be the mark this year, but now if we lose even 1 game in regulation or have 2 OTL's, we will not hit the 94 point mark.  When this season ends, I'll post the actual playoff line to see where we actually stood throughout the year.

 

Actual Points Pace:  83

Predicted Points Pace:  87

 

image.png.d85197b8b6b437ebf4948717ad33ff47.png

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It has been fun to follow the work done in this thread.  I for one have enjoyed it and visited all season.

 

You're welcome to take the rest of the season off if you'd like.

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Well, with one week to go it would be fun if we were in this, but we ended up so out of it it is pitiful.

 

Less than 2 months ago, we wondered at the playoff pace being currently at +6 when it should have been +9.

 

But almost always, inevitably teams go streaking and push the numbers up where they belong.

As of today, the number is +14 which is ultimately 96 points to get in.  Even if we hit my pace of +12 for the season we would not make it.

 

Instead...   +2.

The Canes went the other direction when it counted the most, and the games were most winnable.  Sadly they do not win when all the chips are on the line.

 

End of last season I joked about bothering to even look at the standings (or Hagmetrics) and to look at goal differential instead.  Once again, if you look today, all 8 teams in the east with positive goal differential are in a playoff spot and all other teams with negative goal differential are out of the playoffs.  In the west, there are 2 teams with positive goal differential who are out, but if you sorted by goal differential it would still be in the right order, the teams with the lowest positive goal differential are the ones out.  

 

In the end, the Canes are 12th in the conference in goal scoring, and 11th in goals against.   We can talk till we are blue in the face about the problem with this team, but it is clear to me, we got lots of problems.  We don't score, and we get scored on a lot.  The Rangers game is a microcosm of this team.  41 shots, 1 goal.  20 shots against, 2 goals against.  One more L.

 

Enough until next season...  may all your days be a +1.

 

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Just adding my final two cents before we watch other teams play for the cup.  The playoff line ended up being 97 points (or +15), and as you can see below, we were never above that pace except for the first few games of the season.  It was really a tale of two halves.  We hit our peak after game 40 (against PIT) when we were at 46 points (+6 or 1.15 points/game).  Then we only got 37 points over the final 42 games (-5 or 0.88 points/game) to settle at 83 points and +1 overall.  Just my humble opinion, but I think we never recovered from losing at home against the Caps when they scored 2 goals in the final 4 minutes to win, including the game winner in the final second of the game (game 44). 

 

 

image.png.10d5f01bdba850dedf7d5def8505a3d9.png

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Some of the home play was brutal.  I agree about the Caps game.  But in general, this team found a way to defeat itself and the fans through some horrific home play.

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Hagmetrics state of the union address.

 

Hagmetrics 2.0 was about pacing to the playoffs with a +12.

 

HCRB pretty much stuck a fork in that idea/argument in that if you shoot for the playoffs, the goal is too low.  If you fall just short, you don't make it.

 

I happen to agree.  We should have loftier goals.  So the basics of Hagmetrics remain the same.  In fact, I just went to the standings and can instantly say we are in 2nd place in the Metro adjusted for the vastly uneven numbers of games played...  Jersey is +4, Canes are +2 and everyone clumped together below that.

 

Old Hagmetrics 2.0 said "be +1 every 7 games"   Well, we are +2 after 7 so we are ahead of schedule for making the playoffs.  We are behind schedule for the Presidents trophy but sit in home ice for the first round.

 

I'll periodically post when it seems relevant but the days of the long reports are over.  Brindy was right, let's win all the games we can and bring it home.

 

+2 baby.

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Short comments on today's position.

 

Q1:  Are we really in a playoff slot, Hagmetrics-wise?

A:  Yes we are, believe it or not.  +3 is good for the slot, and the Isle is also at +3 but a point back at this point so chalk it up, we are in the 8 slot.

 

Q2:  How are we looking for playoff pace?

A:  Don't tell Brindi, because he says don't shoot for the playoffs, shoot for the cup.  But the pace is +1 every 7 games, so at 24 games we should be at about +3.5, so we just need to be +4   4 games from now.  We are basically at a pace to get the 8 slot.

 

Let's do better than that, let's get a division slot.  +3 is also the 3rd spot in the division (Rangers) so we are in the running there too.

 

Not bad.  Would like to see us build a cushion, but not bad.  I feel a lot better than 2 weeks ago.

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Well, nothing like a run from -2 up to +7 to motivate you to post during the off days until Friday.  Even though our position at this point in the season is only +2 different from last season, the trajectory is very different.  

 

So a Hagmetrics report is in order to call everyone off the ledge who is scoreboard watching and about to tear their hair out in spite of one of the best Cane's runs in years, maybe the best since 2009 (someone else can figure that out).

 

So here we go:

 

 

Hagmetrics Report

We used to do a goal of +1 every 7 games to +12, but that shoots too low.  It is more meaningful to take a peek at SportsClubStats to see where the cut line may be, and figure how far we are from that. 

 

Hurricanes

Pts   Hagmetrics  SCS Chance 

                  in Playoffs

92    +10         31.4%

93    +11         46.9%

94    +12         63.2%

95    +13         77.6%

96    +14         88.4%

97    +15         94.9%

98    +16         98.2%           

 

To make you angry, same chart for Colorado in the Western Conference:

Colorado

Pts   Hagmetrics  SCS Chance 

                  in Playoffs

87    +5          36.3%

88    +6          53.6%

89    +7          70.1%

90    +8          83.2%

91    +9          91.9%

92    +10         96.6%

93    +11         98.8%           

 

 

 

Teams we need to lose are always winning, right?  Always trying to make something simpler, why don't we use the L10 column in the NHL standings to instantly tell you the "Hagmetrics Trend" for a team.  Really easy to see, just like calculating regular Hagmetrics, look at the L10 column and subtract losses from wins. 

 

What does it mean?  Basically +2 for the last 10 is slightly above playoff pace, and +1 for the last 10 - slightly below playoff pace.  So if you are consistently +2 in your L10 all season you are doing what you need to do to make the playoffs comfortably.  Likewise, if you are catching up, +2 for L10 is probably not enough... if you are comfortably in you can slack a bit below +2 and still be OK.  Common sense, right?   So let's look at that with the additional "Hagmetrics Trend" factor. 

 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Trend       Commentary

Metropolitan

Islanders     +16          +4

Washington    +12           0

Columbus      +12           0

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +31          +4

Toronto       +17          +3

Boston        +15          +5

Wildcard

Montreal      +13          +6

Pittsburgh    +9           -1

 

Out

Carolina      +7           +5          3rd hottest team

Buffalo       +7           +1

Philadelphia  +2           +7          Hottest team

Rangers        0           +1

Florida       -1           +2

Detroit       -6            0

New Jersey    -6           -3

Ottawa        -9           -2

 

 

 

Commentary

So the teams we need to lose always win, but the trend gives you actual perspective beyond the last couple of games, and calls you off the ledge.  Columbus has won 4 in a row but the lost a bunch before that so they are actually even over the last 10.  It may not feel like it but the Canes picked up 5 games on Columbus over the last 10.  The Pens actually have negative trajectory and still probably need to go at least +5 for the rest of the season to make it.  The Canes picked up 6 games on the Pens over the last 10.  The Canes have outplayed Buffalo significantly (+4) over the last 10 which is why they overtook them, not easy to do.

 

So Columbus won last night, but who did they beat?  Well, the Capitals are now as catchable as Columbus is, both sitting there +5 ahead.  The Canes also picked up 5 games over the last 10 against the Capitals.  Someone is always losing, and they can't all play the west for the rest of the season.   

 

My net:  If we keep winning there will be teams falling.  It can't just be the perfect distribution between all the teams ahead of us, "OK, you lose this one, you have a lot of buffer, if we all just work together we can make sure the Canes stay out."    It just feels that way sometimes.

 

 

Edited by hag65
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1 hour ago, hag65 said:

It can't just be the perfect distribution between all the teams ahead of us, "OK, you lose this one, you have a lot of buffer, if we all just work together we can make sure the Canes stay out." 

That pretty much summarizes our scoreboard watching since 1 January 

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It is crappy that we have to get 5 more points to get the same percentage of playoff chances.  This season would be one where the top 16 teams, no matter of conference get into the playoffs.  Of course any years the current method benefits the Canes, I will be more than happy with the current method.  

 

Hey there is my cake, I think Ill eat some too.

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Montreal lost 2 straight.  Both relevant games went Canes way on Thursday.  Buf lost.  Keep winning and there are lots of candidates to surpass.

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1 hour ago, super_dave_1 said:

Bunch of Jerks are currently on pace for 94 points.  It's right there.

 

The BOJ moved up to 66.2% chance of making the playoffs in SportsClubStats by sitting on their hands yesterday.  Montreal has one more point but fell behind them at 63.6%.

 

Another look at the 10 game trends, Hagmetrics style:

 

 

Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Trend       

Metropolitan

Islanders     +18          +4

Washington    +12          +1

Columbus      +12           0

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +33          +6

Boston        +17          +7

Boston        +17          +5

Wildcard

Pittsburgh    +10          +1

Montreal      +10           0

 

Out

BOJ           +9           +6          

Buffalo       +5           -1

Philadelphia  +4           +7          Hottest team

Florida       +1           +2

Rangers        0           -1

New Jersey    -5           -1

Detroit       -6           +1

Ottawa        -9           -4

 

While Philly may be a concern, they have actually only picked up 1 point on the BOJ over the last 10 games at +7 trend vs +6.

Candidates to pass are numerous, CLB trending at 0, Montreal at 0 and Pens at +1.  These teams lost 6, 6 and 5 points to the BOJ over the last 10 games respectively.  While Philly may catch up, there is plenty of room for 2 hot teams. 

Edited by hag65
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On 2/16/2019 at 6:48 PM, hag65 said:

Montreal lost 2 straight.  Both relevant games went Canes way on Thursday.  Buf lost.  Keep winning and there are lots of candidates to surpass.

Les Habitants will collapse. It's what they do.

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Now that I looked at my own report again I guess I should have mentioned Washington at +1 over the last 10 as another team we could catch.

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Short commentary.

 

Now at +13, we are at the 95 point level if we go hockey fake .500 the rest of the way.  That would be 8-8-1 for these last 17 games.

 

Mentioned in other threads, would be good to get 3 points out of these very difficult next 3 games.  Well, that would be exactly .500 so yeah, it's good.

 

95 points is ringing in at about 85% chance to be in right now on SportsClubStats.  Just a simple +1 over these last 17 would get us 96 points which brings us up into the mid 90's to get in percentage-wise.

 

Good times.

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Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Islanders     +18          +1

Washington    +18          +6

Pittsburgh    +14          +4

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +38          +6

Boston        +24          +9

Toronto       +20          +2

Wildcard

Carolina      +13          +7

Montreal      +11           0

 

Out

Columbus      +10          -2          

Philadelphia  +5           +3

Buffalo       +2           -4

Florida       +1            0

Rangers       -1           -2

New Jersey    -8           -1

Detroit       -9           -3

Ottawa        -16          -7

 

The two teams the Canes are ahead of, who are close, Montreal and Columbus are still trending poorly at 0 and -2 respectively.  While there are some red hot teams out there, so are the Canes, and so aren't the Habs and CLB..  At this point things are looking really good with some magic beans in hand and a lead. 

 

Keep winning.  I think 8-8 puts us home. (84% as of now.  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html )

Edited by hag65
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Hagmetrics showing the way! Is RNT still out there? Love to see that Hagmetrics regression line right about now!

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Sorry, I missed the post.  I've been running the regression line all season, but didn't feel a need to post it.  But since you asked...

 

image.thumb.png.17aaae98e86baa4954c74cc75e210e49.png

 

Points Pace:  98.64

Predicted Points Pace:  91.17

 

The regression line has steadily been moving up since the new year, and you can see how it's really been a tale of two seasons at that point (game 38).

Edited by RNT82
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