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hag65

Hagmetrics 2.0: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

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Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Washington    +19          +6

Islanders     +18           0

Pittsburgh    +15          +5

Atlantic

Tampa Bay     +42          +6

Boston        +23          +4

Toronto       +19          +1

Wildcard

Carolina      +14          +5

Columbus      +12          +1

 

Out

Montreal      +9           -2          

Philadelphia  +5           +3

Florida       +5           +2

Buffalo       -2           -7

Rangers       -3           -4

New Jersey    -9           -3

Detroit       -12          -5

Ottawa        -16          -3

 

95% to make it as of now.  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html 

Montreal at 18.8% at this point and looking to be the loser.

 

11 games left.

 

mortal_kombat_finish_him.png

 

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22 hours ago, hag65 said:

95% to make it as of now.  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html 

Montreal at 18.8% at this point and looking to be the loser.

 

11 games left.

 

Canes need to win.

 

I love sports club stats, but don't forget near the end of the season, the swings can be wild.  95% one night becomes 80% the next, and 65% the next.

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5 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

Canes need to win.

 

I love sports club stats, but don't forget near the end of the season, the swings can be wild.  95% one night becomes 80% the next, and 65% the next.

 

Yep, and it works the other way too, if the trailing team loses.  At this point 10 more points is what we need, maybe less.

 

The year Washington won like 19 of their last 20 it was like that, we were in the 90's and the last 2 games dropped to 75% then out.  The difference was, Washington was winning 19 out of 20, Montreal is lumbering below .500 right now.

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4 minutes ago, hag65 said:

 

Yep, and it works the other way too, if the trailing team loses.  At this point 10 more points is what we need, maybe less.

 

The year Washington won like 19 of their last 20 it was like that, we were in the 90's and the last 2 games dropped to 75% then out.  The difference was, Washington was winning 19 out of 20, Montreal is lumbering below .500 right now.

Pittsburgh about the same?

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2 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Pittsburgh about the same?

 

I'm just focusing on Montreal since they are the odd man out now.  This assumes Pitt and CBJ make it along with us, we can fight it out for position.  In reality, factored into the 95% chance is collapses by CBJ, Pitt, and other teams as well.

 

Montreal is +9 with 10 to play, their most likely scenario is 5-4-1 for 92 points. 

 

Canes are +14 with 11 games to play, their most likely scenario is 6-4-1 for 98 points which is 52% likely to be in the top wildcard, 32% in the Metro 3slot.

 

These are the probabilities.  Anxiety is abound, I understand, we are so close we can taste it now.  If we collapse and fall out I'm pretty sure no one wants to see that team in the playoffs anyway, limping across the finish line.

 

This is all an academic discussion anyway involving probability.  We still gotta play the games and anything can happen.  This is about speculation, not reality.  What else can we do, I am sure most of you are like me at this point, just itching for the next game to get us closer and looking for something to talk about to pass the time. 

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Number of BD58's happy with the team:    1

 

It's a lock folks, we're in.

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Condensed Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Games Left    Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Washington    +20           9            +6

Islanders     +18           9             0

Pittsburgh    +15           8            +5

Wildcard

Carolina      +15          10            +5

Columbus      +11           9            -1

 

Out

Montreal      +10           9             0          

Philadelphia  +5            9            +1

 

 

96.4% to make it as of now.  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html 

10 games left.

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I think it will.  This team has a feeling.  Contrast to the unmentionable season Hag noted above, whereby a certain team snuck in at the end.  Our beloved Canes were messed up that year, what with injuries and "sudden miracle healing" at the last minute.  Anyhoo, this is what it looks like when it goes bad, our beloved Canes falling off a cliff as some other team does the opposite.  I.E. 95% means NOTHING right now.  Get her to 100% boys.  (Reference: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/2007-2008/NHL.html)

disaster.PNG

Edited by wxray1

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Passing Pitt to finish third is still a distinct possibility.  Still hoping for some scoreboard help to finish ahead of NYI as well but that one's getting tight.

 

Score more than they do, guys.  Nightly.

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Might not be too much of a difference between finishing third or in the first WC spot (other than pride).  Neither gives you home ice advantage, and it would likely be Caps or Isles either way.  On the one hand, seems like we've had more trouble with the Isles than the Caps recently.  On the other hand, given preseason expectations, deep down I'm still having trouble accepting that the Isles are as good as their record indicates (and the opposite for the Caps) . But we're 72 games in, so it's not like we're looking at short term trends  . . .

 

Bottom line for me: finish 7th or better.  I REALLY don't want to face the Bolts in the first round.  If we could somehow snag 2nd, that would be fantastic.  Ironically, catching Caps could be easier than catching Isles as we have a back to back against the Caps next week while we're done with the Isles for the year.

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Condensed Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Games Left    Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Washington    +20           6            +3

Islanders     +19           6            +2

Pittsburgh    +17           6            +4

Wildcard

Carolina      +16           7            +3

Montreal      +12           6            +1

 

Out

Columbus      +11           7            +1          

 

 

97.9% to make it as of now.  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html 

Most likely finishing position: 

WC1   46%

3rd   21%

2nd   12%

WC2   11%

1st    7%

OUT    2%

 

Most likely finish (SCS)

4-3  99 points

 

7 games left.  Just win. (® coastal)

Edited by hag65

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24 minutes ago, hag65 said:

Condensed Hagmetric Standings

 

              Overall      Games Left    Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Washington    +20           6            +3

Islanders     +19           6            +2

Pittsburgh    +17           6            +4

Wildcard

Carolina      +16           7            +3

Montreal      +12           6            +1

 

Out

Columbus      +11           7            +1          

 

 

97.9% to make it as of now.  http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html 

Most likely finishing position: 

WC1   46%

3rd   21%

2nd   12%

WC2   11%

1st    7%

OUT    2%

 

Most likely finish (SCS)

4-3  99 points

 

7 games left.  Just win. (® coastal)

In your nod to coastal at the bottom, I saw the old Redskins' logo.

redskins.jpg.27f4392a2d451072db26076f6417fe8b.jpg

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+17 = IN

But we can lose, so +16 would be just enough :)

 

What a race.  Most seasons +12 is good.  If you don't believe me, look it up.  It could be +8 in the West.

 

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2 hours ago, hag65 said:

But we can lose, so +16 would be just enough :)

Can you provide a percent probability?  I just want to see it :)

 

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So Colorado gets in with 90 in the West.  Ridiculous.  West has less teams than east so mathematically easier to get in.

 

Meanwhile, the Canes toil in the real conference, and then a division that has two recent cup winners.  It was a hell of a feat to get in this year!

 

Hag, thanks for the metrics.  They rock!

Edited by wxray1
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3 hours ago, wxray1 said:

So Colorado gets in with 90 in the West.  Ridiculous.  West has less teams than east so mathematically easier to get in.

 

Meanwhile, the Canes toil in the real conference, and then a division that has two recent cup winners.  It was a hell of a feat to get in this year!

 

Hag, thanks for the metrics.  They rock!

 

My pleasure.

 

+16 ended up being the number in the East.  If you look historically year to year, +12 is in more often than not.

 

+8 in the West, so I guess it's true.  The average between +16 and +8 is +12.  Not sure I have ever seen the disparity this bad between the conferences, although I am sure it probably has happened.  It's hard enough with an extra team, makes it really hard with this level of imbalance.

 

The net is, the Canes made it in in a very difficult year, hats off to them.

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Hag, the regression line shows how tough a feat it was this year as well.  The playoff line has been adjusted to the 98 points CBJ got, and the predicition line landed right at 94 points.  So, in a "normal" year Canes would have comfortably been in.  But, you can see that once they crawled their way back to playoff pace, they had to grind it out the last 15+ games to stay there.

 

image.thumb.png.9aa863407c08251b4d3f171b0719cbec.png

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