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hag65

Hagmetrics 2.0: Simplest way to 'how we doin'

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The regression is beautiful.  It shows how one brutal month (Dec, 4-8-1) can darn near sink a team.  Took over 2 months to recover, and then that just gets back to the norm.  Gotta fight to stay above 0.600 after that to stay in.

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A couple of things looking back on SCS.
 
At our darkest hour, December 28, our playoff chances were in single digits (I think around 5-7%, or lower). 
 
The graph is here and worth looking at (I couldn't seem to get it to move to this post).
What an amazing run.
 
Back when Hag opened this thread back up for this year, the projection for the East, was that 96 points gave you an 88.4% chance of getting in. Unfortunately for Montreal, the 11.6 % downside happened. At that time in the west, you got a 92% chance with just 91 points. And that wasn't even low enough as 90 was the cut line (vs 98 in the East). That's just sick. 
 
When we were facing these very long odds at the start of the year, people would say, "we need to go 24-10, or 30-13", or some insane thing. The first crazy thing is that it did indeed take a sick run. The second: We did it. By my count since December 28, we went 31-12-2. That is over 45 games, over half the season. That is who this team is. Another fun thing to do is click on this link, and scroll the page down to that win on Dec 31, and scroll down to see the visual of the green W's vs red L's. It's pretty impressive: http://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/car/seasontype/2
 
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On 2/18/2019 at 5:08 PM, top-shelf-1 said:

Les Habitants will collapse. It's what they do.

 

Top called it, middle of Feb.  He is the winner.

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4 hours ago, remkin said:
. Another fun thing to do is click on this link, and scroll the page down to that win on Dec 31, and scroll down to see the visual of the green W's vs red L's. It's pretty impressive: http://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/car/seasontype/2
 

 

What I cannot believe is that we went 5 weeks (Nov 24th to December 29th) and earned only 10 points.   And only 22 points in two months (October 24th - December 29).  That is really bad.   

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24 minutes ago, ironman87 said:

 

What I cannot believe is that we went 5 weeks (Nov 24th to December 29th) and earned only 10 points.   And only 22 points in two months (October 24th - December 29).  That is really bad.   

 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/was/seasontype/2

 

December 31 - February 3.   8 pts.   Everyone slumps, it's what you do the rest of the time.  If you slump you had better streak.   

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2 hours ago, hag65 said:

 

Top called it, middle of Feb.  He is the winner.

What do I win, what do I win??? A week in the Fat Stacks mansion? (Second prize is two weeks?)

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2 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

What do I win, what do I win??? A week in the Fat Stacks mansion? (Second prize is two weeks?)

 

A set of steak knives.  The rest of you are all...

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In all fairness to Montreal, I wouldn't exactly call that a collapse.  They ended up with 96 points, finishing with 9 of 14 possible points against a killer schedule:  Canes, Fla, CBJ, Jets, Bolts, Caps, and Leafs.  I expected them to drop out way sooner than they did.

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20 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

In all fairness to Montreal, I wouldn't exactly call that a collapse.  They ended up with 96 points, finishing with 9 of 14 possible points against a killer schedule:  Canes, Fla, CBJ, Jets, Bolts, Caps, and Leafs.  I expected them to drop out way sooner than they did.

True...they fought til the bitter end.  Would’ve rather had them in over the BJ’s...as they would’ve given Tampa more of a fight 

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Had Montreal made it, every single current- and former-Canes coach would have made it to the playoffs this year.  Part of me is disappointed that didn't happen.

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17 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

In all fairness to Montreal, I wouldn't exactly call that a collapse. 

They were in a playoff spot, 10 games above NHL .500, and fourth in the conference at the All-Star Break--and finished ninth, and on the outside looking in. If I'm a Habs fan, I'm saying they collapsed. 

 

Edited by top-shelf-1

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7 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Potato, potahto. They were in a playoff spot, 10 games above NHL .500 at the All-Star Break, and couldn't hold onto it.

 

It's what they do. 

 

We all have our own interpretation.  But here's the reason I even mentioned mine:  To my ears, saying the Habs collapsed implies that the race came down to the Habs losing a playoff spot.  I'm of the belief that it was more a matter of the Canes winning a spot (and same with the CBJ, who won 7 of their last 8). 

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That was an absolutely insane race. Every team just kept winning. Even more impressive that we came out on top of the three main teams in the running and even came one late goal away from catching Pittsburgh to boot.

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

 

We all have our own interpretation.  But here's the reason I even mentioned mine:  To my ears, saying the Habs collapsed implies that the race came down to the Habs losing a playoff spot.  I'm of the belief that it was more a matter of the Canes winning a spot (and same with the CBJ, who won 7 of their last 8). 

Looks like I edited mine while you were replying, but in case you missed it, I'm saying if I'm a Habs fan, I think feel like my team collapsed in going from fourth in the conference to ninth. They did that in two short months.

 

I get that the race looked hard to us, and that the East is a tough Conference. But we made it hard on ourselves early and clawed back. The Habs made it hard on themselves late, i.e., were not up to the intensity, while we and (until very late) Philly thrived on it.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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At the end of the first quarter...  the score is...

 

 

I used to mark 94 points as the goal to sneak into the playoffs.  After last season I figured its time to reassess.

 

Here are the totals necessary for the Eastern Conference for the last 6 seasons... 

2018-2019    97     +15
2017-2018    97     +15
2016-2017    95     +13
2015-2016    96/93  +14/+11   (Wildcard/3rd in Atlantic)
2014-2015    97     +15
2013-2014    91     +9

 

Prior to 2013 we were in the old Southleast division days and the texture of the playoff hunt was different, so I am only going back 6 seasons.

 

Clearly the East is tougher over the last 5 seasons, but there is no sign this is changing, so it is grin and bear it time.

 

Don't shoot for sneaking in, so shoot for 98 points.  This is also a good number in many ways for ease of computations, which is the hallmark of Hagmetrics.

98 points is +16.  16 is an awesome number in maths.

16 = +4 each quarter of the season

82 games is basically 80 games which is 8 segments of 10 games.  L10 field in the standings is good for this.  You want the L10 field to stay at least at 6-4 (+2).  If you average 6-4 over last 10 all season you make +16.

So you need +2 every 10 games, so at the 20 game mark you want +4.  

 

So it's all good for seeing how we are going.

 

We are 13-7-1      +6 after the first qtr of the season.   We need to be +4.  Actual current cut line is +3.  So we are looking good so far.

Using 10 game segments we were +5 at the 20 game mark, needed to be +4, so good again.

(How about that OT record, the old achilles heel!)

 

Take a look at our L10,  6-4 (Hagmetrics trend of +2)   Looking good.

 

It all looks good so far... no more work needed (it's so easy), but I'll put out the full report for the fun of it...

 

              Overall      Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Washington    +12          +5

Islanders     +12          +9

Carolina      +6           +2

Atlantic

Boston        +10          +3

Florida       +6           +3

Montreal      +5           +3

Wildcard

Pittsburgh    +4           +3

Philadelphia  +3           +3

 

Out

Buffalo       +2           -4

Tampa Bay     +2           +1

Rangers       +1           +3

Columbus       E           -2

Toronto       -1           -2

Ottawa        -1           +4

New Jersey    -2           +1

Detroit       -6           -2

 

By Trend: 

Killing it:    Islanders +9, Washington +5, Ottawa +4

Stinking up the jointBuffalo -4, Columbus -2, Toronto -2, Detroit -2     

Edited by hag65
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Very cool Hag. Amazing that the Islanders are doing this. Amazing that Buffalo is spitting the bit....again.

 

Canes are currently #8 in the NHL in points percent. The bad news, #1 and #2 are Washington and NYI.

 

Still, pretty unusual for us to be in this position at this point. Loving this team.

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30 game report

 

              Overall      Trend (10 Game)       

Metropolitan

Washington    +18          +7

Islanders     +12          +1

Philadelphia  +9           +5

Atlantic

Boston        +16          +7

Florida       +6           +2

Tampa Bay     +4           +1

Wildcard

Pittsburgh    +8           +4

Carolina      +7           +2

 

Out

Rangers       +4           +3

Buffalo       +3           +1

Montreal      +2           -4

Toronto       +1           +1

Columbus      -3           -2

Ottawa        -5           -2

New Jersey    -6           -5

Detroit       -14          -9

 

By Trend: 

Killing it:    Washington +7, Boston +7, Philly +5

Stinking up the joint Detroit -9, Jersey -5, Habs -4     

 

Summary: 

30 game goal is +6, Canes are +7

Trend of +2 is good and dead on pace

Bit of a gap from 8th to 9th.  Keeping your eye on not being #6 in the metro is paramount this year.

40 game mark will be after the last game of 2019.  Going +2 over this hellacious segment would be a true feather in the Canes cap and a clear indicator we are for real this year.

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