Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
OBXer

Hockey 101

Recommended Posts

To lose by 4 goals instead of 1?

 

It was a very curious decision.  The normal time to do so would have been inside two minutes, when the team already had possession.  At 3 minutes, with a faceoff, and our problems with puck possession, AND the general momentum we had at 5-on-5..

 

Yeah, very curious decision indeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, caniac-1-1 said:

To lose by 4 goals instead of 1?

 

It was a very curious decision.  The normal time to do so would have been inside two minutes, when the team already had possession.  At 3 minutes, with a faceoff, and our problems with puck possession, AND the general momentum we had at 5-on-5..

 

Yeah, very curious decision indeed.

 

What difference  does losing by 1 or losing by 4 with two open netters make?  Its a loss in point standings.  The team will know where there effort level was.  At the same time they wouldn’t be okay with either result because morale victories are for people expecting to lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the welcome LakeLivin. I'm still learning but man, I love this sport so much. I've never seen a game until January and I was instantly hooked. These guys are real athletes and it's an intense game.

 

So, where was this other thread? I don't want to duplicate and clog the system and I did search, but guess not well enough. 

Our offense was weak last night, so I can understand wanting to put another guy at that end of the ice, but it put a lot on an 'okay' defense. I don't know, like I said, I'm new. But every time we've done it the other team scores. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, caniac-1-1 said:

To lose by 4 goals instead of 1?

 

It was a very curious decision.  The normal time to do so would have been inside two minutes, when the team already had possession.  At 3 minutes, with a faceoff, and our problems with puck possession, AND the general momentum we had at 5-on-5..

 

Yeah, very curious decision indeed.

 

It just seemed too early. And yes, our puck possession was lame and chaotic. Don't even get me started on our PPs, geez!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Cat5Hurricane said:

Thanks for the welcome LakeLivin. I'm still learning but man, I love this sport so much. I've never seen a game until January and I was instantly hooked. These guys are real athletes and it's an intense game.

 

So, where was this other thread? I don't want to duplicate and clog the system and I did search, but guess not well enough. 

Our offense was weak last night, so I can understand wanting to put another guy at that end of the ice, but it put a lot on an 'okay' defense. I don't know, like I said, I'm new. But every time we've done it the other team scores.

 

Well, hopefully you've come aboard just in time to catch our move back to relevancy. :crossfingers:

 

An easy way to "monitor" the overall forum (if you so desire) is to click on the "unread content" link near the top or bottom right of the page.  You can then click on any of the threads with new posts that you find interesting. 

 

Yeah, the problem with pulling the goalie is that when it doesn't work it often puts a nail in the coffin, which feels worse, even if we'd have lost anyways.  And it doesn't work most of the time (I've seen estimates ranging from 10% of the time on up).  So maybe pulling the goalie early gets you an extra win or two a year, but it's also going to result in a number of games leaving us to wonder "what if?", even if we know that we'd have lost almost all of those anyways.  Most analyses of when it's best to pull the goalie found that it's better to do it earlier, even though the "better" doesn't work all that often.      

 

I suspect that a way to describe our emotional response to something like pulling the goalie early is the prospect theory which shows that people tend to look at things from the perspective of gains and losses.  Most are more much adverse to losing something than open to making a gain of a similar amount. I think it says the loss aversion ratio is about 2 or 3:1. 

 

Oh, and for the record, your perspective is in line with the hockey traditionalists, most of whom are against pulling the goalie early, regardless of what the analytics say.  But if we didn't have different opinions, what would we talk about in here? :P

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've referenced this paper before, but they ran 4 million game simulations, and came up with the best times to pull the goalie given the situation. One goal down: 3 minutes to go (or even a bit sooner). Exactly when Peters did it. There is a lot of math in the paper, but the conclusions are at the end:
 
 
A key quote:
 
In summary, the simulations suggest that NHL coaches are too conservative. The
current strategy is easily outperformed in terms of ANP with more aggressive decisions
regarding pulling the goaltender. All of the papers mentioned in Section 1 similarly
conclude that goalies should be pulled earlier.
 
This is another area that lends itself to bias. When it goes like it did last night, it just seems a bit nuts. But consider this, we had managed to score one goal in 57 minutes. or .017 goals per minute suggesting around a 1/60 chance of scoring in that one minute between when we pulled and when some would pull around 2 minutes.
 
Pulling the goalie dramatically increases the chance of someone scoring, and the pulling team scores more than one might think. Staying 5 on 5 scoring is very rare.
 
I think of all the times that the team going 6 on 5 is putting crazy pressure on only to run out of time.
 
Anyways the math suggests down one: pull at 3 minutes. Down 2 pull at 6 minutes. But it rarely works! Yes, but closing 2 goals 5 on 5 with 6 minutes essentially never works.
 
And that is the bias. You start in a situation that teams almost never win: staying 5 on 5 at the end, so even if pulling usually fails, if it works just a couple of times you're still better off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One other consideration in this "pulling the goalie early" debate, lets not forget that the Canes have a reputed "guru" statistician, do we not? Thus any generalized position, and I emphasize "generalized", be it 4 million game situations or whatever, likely would be downgraded in deference to those statistical inferences about our own specific team, IF Peters relies on these mathematical formulae more than his own "gut feeling". Now, at the point in this particular game, when I sensed our team to be charging, the move would seem to be premature, then neither I or this board are BP, and have a finger on the pulse of the team at that precise moment when the decision was made. Could be that he sensed something that us "Monday morning quarterbacks" or whatever is correct terminology for hockey, did not?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

One other consideration in this "pulling the goalie early" debate, lets not forget that the Canes have a reputed "guru" statistician, do we not? Thus any generalized position, and I emphasize "generalized", be it 4 million game situations or whatever, likely would be downgraded in deference to those statistical inferences about our own specific team, IF Peters relies on these mathematical formulae more than his own "gut feeling". Now, at the point in this particular game, when I sensed our team to be charging, the move would seem to be premature, then neither I or this board are BP, and have a finger on the pulse of the team at that precise moment when the decision was made. Could be that he sensed something that us "Monday morning quarterbacks" or whatever is correct terminology for hockey, did not?

I would argue our own team should pull even sooner since we generate so little offense. But it's not just the 4 million, it also reference to papers looking at actual results. Seems no one wants to look at the actual odds of scoring 5 on 5 in a one minute interval.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, remkin said:

Seems no one wants to look at the actual odds of scoring 5 on 5 in a one minute interval.

Because statistical odds - which, by definition, are arrived at by generalizing situations - are strongly influenced by the specifics of the situation at hand.

 

I don't know if the Canes would have scored in that extra minute. You don't either. But my gut was surprise at BP's willingness to increase the chances of giving his guys a 2-goal deficit when another minute of swarming at 5v5 was more likely to preserve the one-goal deficit (at minimum) and might have produced the tying goal. I don't need analytics to know that if your net is empty, your risk of allowing a goal goes way, way up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But preserving a one goal deficit is not a good thing. Time is the problem, you need a goal and you need it now. There are times that the coach waits until the 2 minute mark and it takes over a minute to gain possession in the zone and get the goalie off, and you're down to one minute and the pressure and chances are great but time runs out. 

 

We disagree on this, which is fine. I would agree that if you had a team that scores 4 goals a game it might change the equation some, and I would agree that if the team has been sustaining lots of pressure 5 on 5 it could change the equation (I still pull early). The other thing in the case of the last game is that we had an offensive zone face-off. 

 

In general I'm amazed how often pulling the goalie works. That gaping open net just seems such a blatant disadvantage. 

 

I just think that the odds are better pulling earlier to the point that it would take a pretty dramatic special circumstance to change those odds. I'm glad we have a coach that has the chops to do it even though the odds are it won't work and he'll take heat for it.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Peters took a huge risk, against a good shot blocking and best offensive team in the league, and it didn't pan out. I don't think it would have mattered if he pulled Darling with 6 minutes to go or three but he had to do something. What he didn't have to do though, I fully agree with Top, is pull the goalie before we had control of the puck. We were a little better on FOs but it wouldn't have hurt to wait just a little longer. Not that it would have mattered any in the outcome, I'm sure.

 

On the other hand, it could have been more disappointing ...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hockey 101 is a great idea though. Some things are fairly clear, like rules, some things are more debatable like strategies.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, remkin said:

Hockey 101 is a great idea though. Some things are fairly clear, like rules, some things are more debatable like strategies. 

Totally concur rem. I'll just add, together with top, "specifics of the situation at hand"= I believe my comment referring to BP's finger on the pulse of his team, thus setting aside all the gaudy statistical figures one offers? I think top's point, and correct me if I misconstrue it top, is that "gut feelings" are innate and reflexive, much like our own Skinner's ability to score. I would think that a good coach has to have that type of 6th sense to know when his team needs to jump, rather than to ponder the various assundary of issues such as waiting for play stoppage, if the puck is possessed by a specific player, etc?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...