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To Trade, or not to trade

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3 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

Unfortunately the idiot Sens GM paid an asinine price for Duchene.  Now everyone else thinks that is the standard for someone that isn’t a pending FA.  

 

I understand JT will be expensive but Faulk and Jordan is too much.  Faulk isn’t a middling Dman.  Yea he frustrates us this season but he is an all star defender that can put up 20+ goals.

 

The Senators didn’t pay an asinine price.  I think they gave a minor prospect back to Colorado, and replaced a player that wasn’t going to re-sign.  That was the best case scenario for them to stay competitive.

 

 As far as your last sentence, I do agree.  If fans traded every whipping boy, the team will be a revolving door, because when one whipping boy leaves, a new one will emerge.

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I still don’t see the Islanders trading him.  And if they do we’d have to way overpay to keep him in the Metro.  Their GM would be in some serious hot water for trading him. Then have JT punish the Islanders 6 times a season (plus or minus a game or two) and help lead another Metro team to the promise land, that be tough.  I’d be upset if it was us in that scenario.

 

I was trading him, Im shipping him to a western team with a contract attached so that I don’t get into that mess.   

 

Our only hope is UFA land. 

Edited by gocanes0506

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While you make good points about Tavares gocanes, is there a chance that he prefers the eastern conference, and the GM will attempt to accommodate his wishes because of what he's meant to that club? That might be the more thoughtful course rather than risk that he'd be lost for nothing, simply because I have this player has some type of restricted clause in his contract. 

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All acceptable premises Kjun.  I just try to put myself in their GM’s shoes. 

 

He is in a tough spot.  His scenarios

 

1. Wait until the season is over and find out his preferences for contract.

2. Trade him at the TDL with no contract for a roster player, prospect, and pick

3. Trade his rights after you learn he doesn’t want to come back for a roster player and a pick (contract required)

4. Trade him with a contract for a nice return

 

i feel like no option is a good one and me feel comfortable about keeping my job.  Number one and him sign is the best but that is highly risky.  

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Tavares will re-sign with the Islanders.  Any rumblings between now and then is just posturing.  They may trade one or more of their other pending UFA's (Kulemin, Bailey, Chimera, de Haan, Hickey, Siedenberg, Halak) at deadline to be sure they have cap room for his (what will be) enormous salary (and term).  I don't really follow the Isle so one or more of those players listed may be untradeable or injured.  In that case, they'll just let that player walk in the off-season.  They probably only need about $3 million or so freed up.  I could also see them moving Ladd's contract for cheap.  They might even have to pay some team (ie throw in an extra pick or prospect) to take his salary cap hit ($5.5m cap hit, $6m salary for 18/19, then $5m, $4m, $4m).

 

Just my opinion.

Edited by wa1010

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8 minutes ago, wa1010 said:

Tavares will re-sign with the Islanders.  Any rumblings between now and then is just posturing.  They may trade one or more of their other pending UFA's (Kulemin, Bailey, Chimera, de Haan, Hickey, Siedenberg, Halak) at deadline to be sure they have cap room for his (what will be) enormous salary (and term).  I don't really follow the Isle so one or more of those players listed may be untradeable or injured.  In that case, they'll just let that player walk in the off-season.  They probably only need about $3 million or so freed up.  I could also see them moving Ladd's contract for cheap.  They might even have to pay some team (ie throw in an extra pick or prospect) to take his salary cap hit ($5.5m cap hit, $6m salary for 18/19, then $5m, $4m, $4m).

 

Just my opinion.

This is by far the most likely thing, I agree wa1010. Last year Stamkos taking TB down to the wire created a lot of buzz then....nothing. Got me to thinking, when was the last time a franchise player in his prime, still producing elite numbers, just walked as a UFA for a team that wanted him? There have been franchise guys late in their careers, but prime? Chara maybe? Hossa, but was he THE franchise? I don't know

 

I'm no NHL historian, if anyone can think of one, I'd be curious. But what I do know is that is doesn't happen very often. It almost doesn't happen. Doesn't mean it can't though....

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Doing a minimal amount of research, I'd guess they let Kulemin walk as a UFA after this season to free up the cap space to sign Tavares long term.  That's $4.188m cap space, add Tavares current $6m and their current $2.149m cap space, they'd have $12.337m cap space next year (a lot of assumptions going into that with re-signing some of their other pending UFA's or back-filling those roster spots).  I don't think he quite gets McDavid money.

 

I didn't realize JT is #4 in the league in scoring and Josh Bailey (linemate?) is #8.  If you look at PPG, they're #8 and #9.

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24 minutes ago, remkin said:

I'm no NHL historian, if anyone can think of one, I'd be curious. But what I do know is that is doesn't happen very often. It almost doesn't happen. Doesn't mean it can't though....

 

Shanahan?  Wesley (hockey transactions make this look like a trade but I think this was a signing and 3 1st rounders were compensation)?  Our stab at Federov?  Some trades that happened because cash-strapped teams couldn't afford to keep players entering free agency (Francis 1.0).  Other?: Seguin?  Kessel?  Pronger?

 

I always thought the Gretzky trade was interesting.  Messier leaving for the Rangers a few years later.

 

Patrick Roy (wa) from Montreal to Quebec/Colorado

 

Found an article that listed Jagr and Coffey.

 

Note that these were all trades (some of them pretty lop-sided).  Francis for Zalapski, John Cullen and Jeff Parker.  Yikes.

 

Letting a superstar walk in free agency is unthinkable.

Edited by wa1010

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Another thought I had, would a guy like Josh Bailey or other UFA's walk away from NYI if they didn't bring Tavares back?  I think it's at least possible if not probable.

 

They're not a cash-strapped team.  They'll find the money.

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I feel like the one difference of TB and Isles is the future of the squad.  I don’t feel like the Islanders have the same talent on the horizon as TB had when Stamkos was an upcoming FA.  

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I still think JVR is a good option if available. His bro is here and doing well. Guy has 18 goals and I'm sure TOR will be looking to upgrade something at some point or make room.

Edited by sleekfeeder

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Another reason I believe JT May bolt is how historically mismanaged that franchise have been since the 90’s.  They let Okposo walk 2 seasons ago, and they tried their hardest to make big moves this past offseason to no avail.  They also got a weaker blueline, and no permanent #1 goalie.  I’d have to think JT wouldn’t just leave them high and dry.  I don’t know.

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11 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

Another reason I believe JT May bolt is how historically mismanaged that franchise have been since the 90’s.  They let Okposo walk 2 seasons ago, and they tried their hardest to make big moves this past offseason to no avail.  They also got a weaker blueline, and no permanent #1 goalie.  I’d have to think JT wouldn’t just leave them high and dry.  I don’t know.

 

If he leaves because he's not happy, why choose us?  We have no permanent #1 goalie.  Our blueline has struggled at times this year.  We aren't known for our offseason big moves.  We seem unwilling to spend close to the cap.

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2 minutes ago, wa1010 said:

 

If he leaves because he's not happy, why choose us?  We have no permanent #1 goalie.  Our blueline has struggled at times this year.  We aren't known for our offseason big moves.  We seem unwilling to spend close to the cap.

I think the hope is that Dundon isn't a cheapskate and by going for Tavares the notion of not making big moves would finally be destroyed.

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IF Tavares makes it to free agency, he's going to have his choice of 75% of the teams in the league to sign with.  Yes, some will have cap issues, but since when has that stopped deep pockets teams from getting creative and making a move?  The Canes would certainly have the space to make a signing, but is Raleigh where he wants to go?  There is a lot more to making this decision that what the prospects of the team for winning is.  Is he a guy that is going to hold out for the last dime?  Is he a guy that wants the big market experience?  Is he a guy that wants the big city lifestyle?  Is he a guy that wants a slower pace and our perceived "higher quality of life" that could be had in Raleigh?  Is he a sportsman that would like what the area has to offer?  Does he want to play golf in April?

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35 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

IF Tavares makes it to free agency, he's going to have his choice of 75% of the teams in the league to sign with.  Yes, some will have cap issues, but since when has that stopped deep pockets teams from getting creative and making a move?  The Canes would certainly have the space to make a signing, but is Raleigh where he wants to go?  There is a lot more to making this decision that what the prospects of the team for winning is.  Is he a guy that is going to hold out for the last dime?  Is he a guy that wants the big market experience?  Is he a guy that wants the big city lifestyle?  Is he a guy that wants a slower pace and our perceived "higher quality of life" that could be had in Raleigh?  Is he a sportsman that would like what the area has to offer?  Does he want to play golf in April?

 

 Exactly. Since Tavares has told the Islanders he doesn't want to negotiate during the season there is no reason to think he would do a sign and trade or to even know if the Islanders would entertain offers. If they did I expect he would become a true rental player for a team looking for a playoff push and nothing guaranteed beyond this season. What Tavares wants is anyone's guess.

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2 hours ago, wa1010 said:

 

If he leaves because he's not happy, why choose us?  We have no permanent #1 goalie.  Our blueline has struggled at times this year.  We aren't known for our offseason big moves.  We seem unwilling to spend close to the cap.

 

With him on our team, we are well balanced.  Staal & Rask would finally be appropriately slotted, and we have emerging young wingers in Aho, TT, Lindholm, Skinner.  While our D has been inconsistent, it’s still viewed as a top blueline in the league.  Having him here would take pressure off of them.  We still need to fill the goaltending void, but his presence is enough to be a legit contender.

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Caught that Cody Franson was placed on waivers yesterday, Wonder if he might be a ticket which could set us up for a trade? Who would consider putting a claim for him, then turn around and trade Faulk for the necessary top 6 forward, say James van Riemsdyk? Franson is reputedly a good shot suppressor, and although we would REPUTEDLY lose Faulk's "booming shot " on the power play, either he's lost that or all 30 other teams have figured out how to neutralize it?

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I agree with most of the speculation here about Tavares. Probably going on in several other team's boards too.  To sum up my thoughts;

 

1. It is worthy of speculation because the Islanders have serious issues and Tavares has at least opened the door by not negotiating with the team.

2. The Islanders will not trade him unless he gives them a clear signal that he is gone in UFA. Too much blowback on the team, now and in hockey history if they do it without that. People would talk about them negatively for years, if not decades.

3. If the Islanders trade him as a rental, the price will be high, but not as high as it would be with a new contract. Most players are wrongly thought to be "the" piece a team needs for a run. Tavares actually would be that piece for several teams.

4. If Tavares agrees to a trade and sign, the price (in trade terms) will be astronomic. He would be one of the best players traded in recent memory.

 

When I consider 1-4, it is really hard to consider us trading for him. As a rental? Well, we need playoffs, and that would get us there. But a run in the playoffs? Hard to see it if Darling doesn't straighten his game out. Francis is still building for the long run. I don't think he'll pay a big price for a JT rental. (again by price, I mean who we lose). The outside shot is that by signing Tavares as a rental we would get an inside track on signing him. He'd get to experience Raleigh, the team, etc, and we get to negotiate solely with him.

 

5. If Tavares gets to UFA, then we are one of many. Only a team like Pittsburgh or Edmonton who already have two 1Cs, or teams like Chicago that are already carrying two mega salaries might not be in the game.

 

But Raleigh does have something to offer. If Tavares likes the idea of being the man that delivers a franchise back into contention. If he likes a very promising core of players and a deep pipeline. If he likes the reputation the Canes have as a player friendly organization, and working for a guy like Ron Francis. If he wants a low key city that lots of ex players end up living in after retirement. If he wants to be on the leading edge of a franchise going from rumored moving to packed houses competing for cups. If all of that sounds good, and maybe the new owner commits to better practice facilities, then we would at least be in the game.

 

When I consider that we are one of the teams with just about everything else in place (goalie at the moment not withstanding) except the exact hole he fills? It could be a good decision on his part.

 

With what he brings on the ice and the tickets a move like this would sell? There almost is no contract that would not be a good move on our end.

 

Hey, it could happen!

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according to Dreger JVR is looking for a hometown discount of 6 x 6 extension to stay in Toronto.  His agent believes he is leaving money of the table being a 30 goal guy.  If he hits the market, I'd expect it to be in the 6.5 mil to 7 mil range.  Maybe we could be closer to 6 mil with the tax difference.

 

6 million from at least years 5 & 6 would be a over payment because he'll be 33-34 at that time.

Edited by gocanes0506

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My main reasoning for the JT talk is prior to the season, I read speculation about him specifically mentioning Carolina as a landing spot.  I read it on another board, but I guess I can’t quote  it here.

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34 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

My main reasoning for the JT talk is prior to the season, I read speculation about him specifically mentioning Carolina as a landing spot.  I read it on another board, but I guess I can’t quote  it here.

 

That would be interesting.  I havent seen anything that mentioned Carolina.  I've seen assumptions Carolina would be a probable destination because he likes be in a place where he isnt followed constantly and we have a high level of young NHL talent and good talent coming.  Basically we are a JT short of being a perennial high caliber team.   

Edited by gocanes0506

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Back, 13 hrs or so, I'd pointed out that Cody Franson had been placed on waivers and floated the idea that the Canes should bite on that to make Faulk expendable? No one responded and I guess that he slid thru unclaimed. Part of the suggestion was to go after JvR with Faulk? Based on his latest performance, and despite him scoring 2 goals, but allowing how many(?), I still like that suggestion, with Toronto having to kick in something additional? Faulk just ain't getting it done, guys, and we desperately need scoring?

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