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Dundon In Charge

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Just an update on STM stuff...

 

There has been an ongoing "random selection" for the right for a STM and one other person to go be a part of the "Fan Tunnel Experience".

 

I was lucky enough to win this for the Vancouver game.  So my daughter and I got to go register at the end of the second period, and go down in the area where the team comes out, and cheer on the team as they took the ice.  Fist bumps, high fives and such.

 

I enjoyed it, it was a nice perk.

Edited by hag65
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On 2/4/2018 at 3:59 PM, slapshot02 said:

TD will have to start charging $10.00 for lower bowl tkts to get a packed house if something doesn't change.

There was a huge crowd Saturday night.

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Looking at using my vouchers for Friday vs Isles and the entire lower bowl on the sides is completely sold out, and a lot of the rest of the lower bowl too.

 

Might be some Islanders fans in there, but still, I mean not even a single in some sections.

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

Looking at using my vouchers for Friday vs Isles and the entire lower bowl on the sides is completely sold out, and a lot of the rest of the lower bowl too.

 

Might be some Islanders fans in there, but still, I mean not even a single in some sections.

 

Saturday tickets against the Isles should be an easy get.  Friday on the other hand should be pretty packed.

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47 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

 

Saturday tickets against the Isles should be an easy get.  Friday on the other hand should be pretty packed.

Details.

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They talked about this on SiriusXM.

 

Mr. Dundon!   Bring back the bobbleheads!   This, my friend, is an awesome idea, and clearly a great marketing tool as well.  I can only wonder what you could come up with this idea.

 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/22434209/nhl-san-jose-sharks-augmented-reality-bobblehead-logan-couture-changes-game

 

 

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11 minutes ago, hag65 said:

They talked about this on SiriusXM.

 

Mr. Dundon!   Bring back the bobbleheads!   This, my friend, is an awesome idea, and clearly a great marketing tool as well.  I can only wonder what you could come up with this idea.

 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/22434209/nhl-san-jose-sharks-augmented-reality-bobblehead-logan-couture-changes-game

 

 

That is just super cool.

 

Who would not show up for one of those?

 

I don't get the disappearance of the bobble head here.

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Hey Dundon.  I just got home after leaving the Pens home game here in Raleigh after the 2nd period. 

 

I don't care about Whalers gear, Homegrown, more sales staff in the lobby, an expanded eye, etc.  Your $40 discounts are heading to $30 in the future and more giveaways.

 

The on ice product is awful.  Start doing the real work that is needed around here.

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28 minutes ago, Manwolf said:

Hey Dundon.  I just got home after leaving the Pens home game here in Raleigh after the 2nd period. 

 

I don't care about Whalers gear, Homegrown, more sales staff in the lobby, an expanded eye, etc.  Your $40 discounts are heading to $30 in the future and more giveaways.

 

The on ice product is awful.  Start doing the real work that is needed around here.

 

Same that was horrible to watch.  I also had a terrible experience at the venues at the 300 levels.  Wait times were terrible. 

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Don't know where to put this so I'll put it here, we don't need a new thread.

 

First of all, what I am about to talk about is paraphrasing of TD from a breakfast/chalk talk we had last week.  Subject to my memory, and also to my interpretation.  In other words, apologies to TD if I get any of this wrong.

 

Lots of angst, gnashing of teeth, screaming about what happened at the trade deadline, or rather what didn't happen.  I noted I have theories, so yeah I'll put it forward.  But it is a THEORY guys, so take it for what it is worth, which is absolutely nothing.

 

TD aluded to the fact that one of the first things he did was to start paying for some very expensive stats.  Status that a lot of teams are unwilling to pay for.  He didn't say, but I assume that some of these things are not even known these days to exist.  He did talk a bit about (parapharasing) "What is a good scoring chance" and how there is a lot of disagreement to what that means in the NHL, you could ask 10 guys and get 10 answers, all different.  There is a stat available that is essentially dispassionately tracking good scoring chances and the percentage of time that a team scores on their good scoring chances.  What is the ranking of the percentage of time the Canes score on their good scoring chances?   Dead last among all 31 teams.   Furthermore, the ranking of the percentage of time does our opponent score on good scoring chances against us?  Highest %, which puts us dead last in the league there as well.  Dead last both ways.  It is also true that the statistics take into effect "luck" i.e. skill vs luck is factored in with luck at about 30% of the factor.     So the next logical step was to look into historical stats on teams that have been last ranked in these 2 catagories, and to see if they remained there or moved from there.  So what did they do to change? First of all, teams do not remain there, luck is too big a factor.  Second, the most common action taken to change the trajectory was to do nothing.  Every time, the teams have pulled out of these periods of time as luck was a big factor.

 

Now I don't want you to think I am saying "TD said we are unlucky, that's why we suck".  He didn't say that.  What he did say was where we are with both of those stats simultaneously what they are is something you could write a book about, it doesn't happen.  Furthermore it doesn't stay that way for anyone.  He noted, if we stay the way we are, clearly we have huge issues with something. 

 

My editorial comments:   Well, we could suck because of talent level, coaching, or both.  Maybe we suck at preventing good scoring chances due to goaltending.  I would also say, I have heard way too many times "when we make a mistake it's in our net".  For us to believe that we aren't allowed to make a mistake but the whole rest of the league makes mistakes and pays for it at a different rate can only be attributed to 2 things, luck and crappy goaltending.  Well, maybe it is a bit of both.  Maybe we don't score at a high enough rate because we just don't have enough talent.  But we do hit a lot of posts, so 30% of it being bad luck, I can buy that.

 

Back to theories.  TD also aluded to the fact that the NBA and MLB use stats a LOT, and there is no longer a significant advantage to using them, but in the NHL there is a lot of resistance and he believes that there is a sgnificant advantage to be gained in this area.

 

So, IF you had just got the stats, AND the stats are telling you a number of things BUT you are not quite sure what they are saying yet, i.e. you need to work out a few things, probably a LOT of things, and you literally don't know if you are suffering from bad luck, talent issues, coaching issues, or what, how ready are you to go and make major moves?  Especially when you can look at a specific move and wonder if it is worth the major price.

 

Think about this... RF moved EStaal.  EStaal just broke 30 goals.  In the biggest message board turnaround in history, people are singing the EStaal praises since they are looking at a stat line.  (BTW, I don't seem to remember this love for his last 3 years here from any of you).  Isn't it worth figuring out why/how this happened before we trade Faulk, who scored how many PP goals before, literally can't hit the broadside of a barn this year?   After we trade him and he becomes the best offensive DMan in the league I look forward to GameCock69 or whoever pointing out every time he gets a PP goal for Detroit in our nightly gameday thread, since I do so appreciate the updates on EStaal's points and their relevance to our own game performance and would love to know more.

 

 

If anything, I expect that we are going to start to see mystifying stuff.  If someone really starts figuring out this stuff, and there are advantages to the stats analysis, we should see counterintuitive moves.  Something like pulling in someone for 2.5 mil a year with 10 goals.  We sign him and he gets 20.  We get rid of a Skinner and think the end of the world has happened, only to find out we got a guy for less money who scores fewer goals but his +/- is sweet and we start winning more.  Maybe we find that elusive goalie we have wanted for 10 years now.

 

 

I feel the same emotionally as a lot of you, but mostly I feel confused about what I am seeing.  We just took Boston to OT without JStaal.  This is a team who racked 7 on us effortlessly earlier this season when we were on a roll.  But we can't beat a below fake .500 team Detroit to save our lives.  We slay the Blue Jackets but can't beat the Rangers, who were so bad they tore the team apart.   I can't figure it, and so can't you.  The whole forum only agrees on one thing and that is "This sucks and I want it to end".   But how to make it happen is literally all over the map. 

 

I believe at the trade deadline the Hippocratic oath was in effect, "First do no harm".   This I believe will NOT last long.  Once TD has a theory on what is going on I expect dominos to fall and rapidly.  Just not yet.

 

This has been a Hag theory, opinions are my own, and subject to my own interpretation, attributing any of this to TD is unfair, other than my paraphrasing of his words about the advanced stats.

 

If it gives you an alternate view to total despair, then so be it.  If not, your theories are most likely worth the same as mine, cash them in at Moes the next time faulk scores and I believe they will give you queso for them.

Edited by hag65
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Thanks for that hag. It puts a little sanity to the chaos all are experiencing right now, especially if one subscribes to the weather theory in these parts, namely, I you don't like the weather wait a few, as it will change. Much like that darn sound that drives me nuts, that of the puck ringing off the goal post that seems to plague this team, they will start going in!!!

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Thanks hag, good stuff.  I know Dundon mentioned advanced stats during his presser.  I think I also recall him saying something that gave me the impression that good forwards were critical to winning, i.e., more important even than good D (my interpretation of something much less direct he said).

 

A thought on random variation (luck):

I knew hockey had a very high "random variation" (luck) factor, so his estimate of 30% doesn't surprise me a bit. Matter of fact, I've alluded to that phenomenon a few times when I thought we'd clearly outplayed the other team yet still lost.  But that train of thought didn't go over very well here, and I can understand why given the emotions that come with losing yet another game we "should" have won, especially in the midst of our long playoff drought.   And while random variation most likely does play some role in our bottom ranking in both the GCGC (good chance goal conversion) and GCGGU (good chance goals given up), I'm guessing that we were pretty close to the bottom there last year, and maybe even the year before that, as well.  Plus, I'd also guess that the amount of random variation isn't so large that we'd be anywhere close to where we need to be even if you somehow took out all of the randomness..  In other words, the "randomness" might be pushing us from low-mid 20 something all the way down to last, but I doubt it's moving us from middle of the pack (or better) to dead last.  In even other words, even though randomness effects our performance there to a potentially large extent, our performance there still clearly needs to vastly improve.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Rem, that is an awesome impersonation of Hag!

 

Ok, Hag thanks for the post and share.

 

Here are a few stats for TD:

1. I have 2 eyeballs and they work just fine after corrective surgery

2. I hope you're looking at GM stats and will venture a guess.  Yep, last again.

3. My frustration meter as a long time STH = Max

4. My most important stat is how much will I spend on Canes (fully loaded - tkts, parking, F&B, merchandise) next year.  Want to venture a guess TD?

 

Have a nice day.

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I have had the feeling that Francis and Dundon are working very closely, unlike the relationship I imagined between PK and Francis. It seemed like PK lost interest and just said here is X dollars, do what you can. I did not expect instant results and hope that we can start out next season with better results. I believe there will be some trades and a coaching change over the summer, so we will see.

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If luck played a determinative role, the Canes wouldn't have missed the playoffs as consistently as they have. 

 

It's got to be either a good plan poorly executed, or a poor plan done well.

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2 minutes ago, caniac-1-1 said:

If luck played a determinative role, the Canes wouldn't have missed the playoffs as consistently as they have. 

 

It's got to be either a good plan poorly executed, or a poor plan done well.

 

So I think I need to clarify that he didn't say how long we have been in these positions.  I have no idea if it was last week, last month or last year.  He also didn't specify last 9 years clearly.  So yeah, luck normalizes over time, the longer the period, the more it normalizes.  So the picture is... incomplete.  I wish I knew the time period.

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Good post Hag. Not too long for me!

 

A while ago they had a fascinating interview on NHL on XM with a person who's company collects these stats. The literally have people watching every game and recording all kinds of things into the system. I bet it's that company he's talking about.

 

Hockey has the most luck of any major sport. It is also a very fluid game and the only one that rolls player changes during the action. I think these things make collecting and interpreting data harder than the other sports. Even though basketball is fluid, far fewer players get on the court and there's no goalies. There's some luck of the bounce in basketball but nowhere near as many possession battles, and of course not a full contact game. Baseball is much more easily broken down into linear events. I suspect this is why hockey has been hard to get really good stats for.

 

All of that said, it's also frustrating as a fan of facts to hear certain "truisms" over and over that despite years of mention are demonstrably false. We've debated them here and it's not my intention to do it again, except to say that running things as data-driven as possible appeals to me, and I think there is an advantage to be had in that.

 

This team is clearly bad at finishing it's chances. We've been on about that here for years. In the NHL you have to be able to put the puck in spot and that spot tends not to be the logo on the goalie's uniform, and it tends to not be the glass behind the net. Hopefully these advanced stats will as mentioned tease out guys who ring the post, vs guys who serially throw their golden chances into the logo or wide of the net. But the other thing is number of prime scoring chances created per game.

 

What my eyes tell me, and I'd be interested in seeing if stats bear out, is that to start with we create fewer prime scoring chances that good teams, and games where we really struggle we hardly create any, AND that we shoot into the goalie center mass or miss the net far more than other teams. The first one can be talent lacking and/or the system, the second one is not having enough guys who can shoot accurately, but is not the system.

 

I think it's more about having enough elite talent to drive the offense. That elite guy not only can hit the corners, but creates offense all over the place and makes all the numbers start looking good. It's easy to be a genius in Pittsburgh rolling Crosby and Malkin out night after night.

 

We hired a numbers genius Tulsky a while back. Spinning it positively, hopefully if all this new data flows in, he can help our management make sense of it.

 

However, I don't care if I'm right or wrong so long as Dundon and Francis and Peters et all get it right. I agree with others here though, that we've seen this play several times, and the chance that it's mostly luck is very small. So I'm eager to see what changes come. But there better be some.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, caniac-1-1 said:

If luck played a determinative role, the Canes wouldn't have missed the playoffs as consistently as they have. 

 

It's got to be either a good plan poorly executed, or a poor plan done well.

 

I don't think anyone thinks we've just had bad luck. Clearly, one major problem over the past 9 years has been a lack of talent.  I won't even bother to name some of the players we've trotted (skated?) out there. 

 

Based on hag's report, here's what I think TD was getting at:

  • it's pretty well agreed that "luck" plays a much larger role in NHL results than any other major sports (there have even been academic papers published on it). 
  • TD recognizes that hockey hasn't yet utilized stats to fine tune success the same way other sports have (moneypuck, the hockey equivalent of moneyball) and sees an opportunity to gain an advantage.
  • But the high degree of random variation makes it that much harder to fine tune that analysis.
  • Canes are working on it, but aren't quite there yet (how long has TD been here, is it 2 months yet?)
  • Therefore, hesitant to anything big until they figure out the exact details.  
  • And, I'm guessing high rental prices precluded most "regular" moves you might see at the deadline (except I still wonder about Mrazk)   

Of course, my take of their take might be overly influenced by my take, if you know what I mean, lol.:P

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I'm remembering a bit more.  TD also said he intends to be the #1 best franchise at utilizing the data.  Not one of the best.  The best, period.

 

Lake... i love the moneypuck reference.   My buddy and I have been advocating that name (and the principle/process) for about 3 years now.

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11 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

Of course, my take of their take might be overly influenced by my take, if you know what I mean, lol.:P

 

Sure, these are all just opinions, I get that.  

 

I'm not even really arguing with anything that's been said, except the notion that luck is important.  Even if it plays a "larger role" in the NHL than other sports, it's immaterial.  You can't control luck, you can't plan for luck, you can't use luck to your advantage.  You can only control the rest of the equation, so there's absolutely no reason to mention luck as a factor unless you're trying to give yourself an excuse for failure.

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15 hours ago, hag65 said:

I believe at the trade deadline the Hippocratic oath was in effect, "First do no harm".   This I believe will NOT last long.  Once TD has a theory on what is going on I expect dominos to fall and rapidly.  Just not yet.

Hag, thank you so much. I won't say this got me off the ledge entirely, but I have one foot back on the windowsill. Up until this deadline, I've always thought RF was too smart not to succeed as a GM. It is comforting to know there is a plan and it is being worked. 

 

I would really love to know the period across which the stats were accumulated as well, but even without knowing that, the conclusion you reach in your editorial comment aligns with that many of us have also reached: We can't cash in on good chances consistently enough, and can't make the big save.

 

These are the two elements of hockey that most often carry teams to victory, and not for the obvious reason (i.e., they end up with more goals than the other team). These elements matter because hockey is a momentum-driven game. That does not negate the power of stats, so before anybody thinks I'm suggesting that, let me be clear: I'm not.

 

But let me take the example of another stat, the effects of which have been long disputed on these boards: Face-off percentage. Rem has excavated some numbers on the importance of winning face-offs to support his stance that in the vast majority of cases, it doesn't lead to goals. Others have made the point that it's not about scoring goals as much as keeping possession. That latter point feeds into the momentum thing I mentioned; the team that controls the puck controls the game. That's not the same as winning it, but it's damned hard for the other team to score without the puck.

 

That's different in a very basic way from basketball or baseball or football, where scoring opportunities most often come because it's a team's "turn" to go on offense. There are no such turns in hockey. My gut tells me the resistance to advanced stats among hockey traditionalists is due mostly to this fundamental difference between scoring opportunities in hockey versus other major sports. But it is shortsighted, and I'd bet dollars to donuts that these are the same people who still want enforcers and four-hour marathons with 100 minutes in penalties every night.

 

Those days are not coming back - and good riddance - TD's focus on stats is nothing less than an attempt to bring hockey into the 21st century, IMO. To get an understanding of how scoring chances are manufactured, converted, and prevented, and good on him. (And on you for sharing the update he provided.)

 

While I still disagree with not at least picking up help in the crease to reward the roster and perhaps take the team from dead last in chances prevented to maybe 28th (!), it is heartening to know that the lack of moves was based on TD's clear (if unstated) decision to sacrifice one more year of playoffs if that will make the Canes markedly better right out of the gate next year, and for the foreseeable future. 

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
typos
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One of the reasons face-offs are less important than they seem is that there are so many puck battles in hockey and they are all equally important. This is one of the reasons, as Top was alluding to, that I think hockey is the toughest sports for stats to get an accurate handle on.These possession battles do matter, it's just that they all matter. So if a guy is constantly winning board battles or creating turnovers, (or not turning it over) that is as, if not more important. But to accurately gauge things all of these possession battles, which happen far less in other sports, have to be accounted for. That said, I do think that these detailed stat companies DO track that stuff. Take Jordan. His face-off percentage tends to be impressive, and that does give him and us a small advantage, but he also wins battles and doesn't turn the puck over. ALL of that together with other factors makes him more valuable than his scoring numbers. I'd guess super fancy stats will show Jordan to be more valuable. Any bets on Faulk? 

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First of all Hag, great write up. I do agree that the idea of getting a good handle on where they are is probably what drove the trade deadline.  I also think that this group needs more of a purging than moving in "a guy" at the deadline.  I'd feel better about all that if they had done something, anything to help out on the goaltending front prior to even getting to the deadline.  After 3 years in Chicago where Darling went .936, .915, and .924 over 74 games, there was no reason to think he was going to *edit* the bed in Raleigh.  Once he did, they let the team (and the fans) sleep in the shat upon sheets until it was too late to change them and do any good.

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