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gocanes0506

2018 NHL Draft

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Its too early to start an off-season thread.  So lets talk to the draft.

 

As of March 14th:                                                         1st %     Top 3 %

Buffalo Sabres 56 points 18.0% 48.1%
Arizona Coyotes 57 points 12.5% 36.2%
Vancouver Canucks 59 points 10.5% 31.2%
Ottawa Senators 59 points 9.5% 28.6%
Detroit Red Wings 63 points 8.5% 25.9%
Montreal Canadiens 64 points 7.6% 23.4%
Edmonton Oilers 64 points 6.7% 20.9%
Chicago Blackhawks 68 points 5.8% 18.3%
New York Rangers 69 points 5.4% 17.1%
Carolina Hurricanes 71 points 4.5% 14.4%
New York Islanders 70 points 3.3% 10.7%
Florida Panthers 75 points 2.7% 8.8%
New York Islanders (via Flames) 80 points 2.2% 7.2%
Anaheim Ducks 80 points 1.8% 5.9%
Philadelphia Flyers (via Blues) 79 points 1.0% 3.3%

 

If I was predict, the best we could hope for is 8th with Chicago, NYR, and NYIs going ahead of us in the standings.  We have an very outside shot at 5th if Detroit, Montreal, and Edmonton jump us as well.  

 

Best available

LHD Dahlin- anyone not heard of this kid yet?

RW Svechnikov- goal scoring Russian machine.  Has done well on CHL ice.

LW Zadina- Necas' goal scoring buddy in the U20 tournament.  Man talk about instant chemistry.

C/LW Tkachuk- Young, professional family, and a power forward

RHD Bovqist- Swedish teammate of Dahlin.  Great on the offensive side, not as much 2 way game as Dahlin

RHD Bouchard- good 2 way defender

LHD Hughes- another O defensemen

RHD Dobson- the big riser in this year's class.  Big and can score

C/RW Wahlstrom- big, fast, and scores

LW Farabee- smaller at 5'11, 155lbs (yikes) but is a 3 zone playmaker 

 

my wish list (assuming we dont have a shot at the top spot because we dont win the lottery)

If we have an early pick:

Svech- we need a RWs and we need goals

Zadina- to partner with Necas

Tkachuk- we need big

 

Middle of the pack pick:

RHD Wilde- big defender that loves to stand dudes up and hit.  I would say we need that

RW Noel- this year's Gauthier.  If we are in the 13-15 range, I'd take a shot at him

 

Probable pick: based on probable drafting spot and our drafting trends.

C Kupari- seems to have a lot of the same scouting reports as Necas.  Fast, good play maker, can shift gears and very shifty well.  He didn't do well in the U20 tournament and I bet that is what is keeping him from top 10 status.  I would bet Joni has a very solid scouting report on this Finnish forward.

C/W Lunderstrom- Swedish forward who is smart, plays hard, and makes good decisions.  He plays in the grown people's league and has held his own.  Sound familiar to any other forwards we have/drafted?

 

I go hard after RHD Wilde.  We have a bunch of forwards coming over the next 3 years.  We lack defenders coming to the squad past Bean and Mckeown.  Both of those guys seem like bottom pair guys at this point.  We severely lack RHD prospects.   We also lack toughness.  

Edited by gocanes0506

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Just now, sleekfeeder said:

Canadian + Size + Speed = Draft it.

 

We'd have to get a top 3 to have a shot at Tkachuk.  Even then some places rate him above the other 2 forwards of Zadina and Svech.  

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I'd kinda like to know the adjusted chances for brand new owner TD getting the top overall pick, these weird things seem to have a tendency to happen.

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15 minutes ago, legend-1 said:

I'd kinda like to know the adjusted chances for brand new owner TD getting the top overall pick, these weird things seem to have a tendency to happen.

 

does that outweigh the history of saying we can't have a number one?  Man what does that do us if we have the number one?  

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On the bright side for this season, this is the latest in a few years that the draft thread started. I’ve always been opposed to tanking, but honestly, I wouldn’t cry if we lose out from here. It seems like we have been one spot away from getting a player that we needed a lot the last few years.

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On 3/15/2018 at 9:18 AM, gocanes0506 said:

Nice music for this Kupari highlight montage.  Interviews like Aho.

 

Kupari

What's not to like? Great wheels, great hands and snipes.

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1 hour ago, slapshot02 said:

What's not to like? Great wheels, great hands and snipes.

 

We need grit. He is a good player and looks to have solid skill.  My only compliant would be is another Scandinavian who lacks physicality. We have a lot of those with Rask, Aho, Kuok, etc.  Then throw in the other European Necas to the mix.  Then again we have a lot of North Americans who lack physicality too.   

Edited by gocanes0506
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4 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

 

We need grit. He is a good player and looks to have solid skill.  My only compliant would be is another Scandinavian who lacks physicality. We have a lot of those with Rask, Aho, Kuok, etc.  Then through in the other European Necas to the mix.  Then again we have a lot of North Americans who lack physicality too.   

Thanks for the links and draft info, good stuff!

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11 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

On the bright side for this season, this is the latest in a few years that the draft thread started. I’ve always been opposed to tanking, but honestly, I wouldn’t cry if we lose out from here. It seems like we have been one spot away from getting a player that we needed a lot the last few years.

Could it be that one spot away shows a lack of dealing, again highlighting our former GM's hesitancy to do same

 

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So once again we find ourselves in this sickly soft spot this time of year. Finally out of the playoffs, and with near maximal pain drafting in the (slightly upper) middle of the pack. And with a bit of time before my night shift, and back to little interest in the rest of this meaningless season, and with the GM and coach watch off and the playoffs not yet begun, I turn my attention once more, to the draft.

 

We find ourselves in essentially the exact same position as last year. We sit in the #11 spot with a probability of a slide of one spot in the lottery. Thus as it stands, we will most likely pick #12. Last year we picked....#12.

 

Realistically we can not drop enough games to get higher than #8 pre ping pong balls*, and really we can't fall lower than #12 which is likely to be #13 post ping pong balls. So, baring a roughly 12% chance of a ping pong ball win, we will draft #8 to #12, but most likely 10-12, as a drop to 8 would require a fall with a win streak by Edmonton or Chicago. *technically an Edmonton and Chicago surge with a losing streak "could" in theory push us to #7 pre ping pong, but very unlikely.

 

So we will most likely draft post ping pong action, 9-12 baring a lucky win, losing streak, or a trade up.

 

I always want to trade up, and I'll tell you this year is no exception. But we never do it, though this year could be different.

 

Finally, we do not need to be drafting a defenseman, especially at #11 or so. BUT there are a gaggle of D men ranked in front of, and around us that could have a big impact on things around our pick.

 

My take is that we pick the most highly skilled, point producing, hockey-smart, ideally speedy forward we can, no matter what D man BPA might be there. If there are too many BPA D men try to trade up, or take a shot at a high skilled forward with some downside.

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This draft is being called the Dahlin draft as he is considered that uber elite #1 D man. Then there are pretty much 3 guys considered uber elite forwards:

 

Svechnikov, Zadina, and Tkachuk. Some throw in Boquist a D man for a top 5, pretty much unreachable, though personally I'd go after Zadina or Svechnikov if somehow they dropped to #5, but those deals just don't seem to happen, so I write those guys off.

 

Then we get to the guy that in theory maybe we could realistically trade up for (though unlikely) and I would go for if at all possible:

 

Oliver Wahlstrom: C, 6'1" 205. 

 

His consensus ranking is 6.6. If he dropped to #7 and we dropped into #9, that would be a doable move if the team at #7 wanted a D man (Edmonton at the moment, might).

 

This guy has it all. Size, speed, the best puck skills in the draft,  quickness, physical, goes to the dirty areas. My dream list would be Zadina then Svenchnikov, but Wahlstrom would be an outstanding coup if somehow, some way....this is probably a pipe dream because other teams will want him, but there is a gaggle of D men ranked 5-11, so if things broke right, you never know...

 

He is universally ranked in the top 9 players by nearly all scouts.

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I don't want to trade up I want to trade. I don't want to wait for Aho to move to center or make sure Lindy is the real deal. I want to take my first round draft , combine it with a prospect and player and go get a top center. I don't want to look two, three or five years down the road. The only good use of our draft pick is a trade.

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43 minutes ago, OBXer said:

I don't want to trade up I want to trade. I don't want to wait for Aho to move to center or make sure Lindy is the real deal. I want to take my first round draft , combine it with a prospect and player and go get a top center. I don't want to look two, three or five years down the road. The only good use of our draft pick is a trade.

Dilly Dilly. I want an existing NHL player.

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So we end up picking around #11 or #12, and some GM in the 5-10 zone wants Wahlstrom probably, who is left? This is meant as a companion piece to the great post by gocanes, but with my proprietary collated ranking score.

 

Well my thing is combining rankings from scouts and coming up with the likely targets in our range. The thing about it is that once you get past Wahlstrom, the consensus breaks down to varying degrees. I will offer more thoughts on these guys, but in order their rankings* with very brief blurbs are:

 

Joel Farabee: 12.4 (8-16) 5-11, LW. Small, skilled, goes to the areas, quick release accurate shot, great vision and IQ, slippery, very high ceiling, 3 zones.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi: 13.8 (10-18) 6'1" C. Good puck skills, finishes, quick hands, vision, good speed, awareness, wins battles, dangerous shot

Gregori Denisenko: 13.8 (11-15) 5'11"LW. Russian, quick, great edgework, darts, creative, high skilled (some think top 10 skill), great hands, rising

Rasmus Kupari: 14.8 (12-18) 6'1" C. Super slick, makes big plays, strong skater, great stickhandler, shifty, sees the ice, top line upside.

Isac Lundestrom: 15.4 (10-20) 6'0" C. Great puck skills, two way nuanced player, soft hands, high IQ, two way player, looks better more you see him, rises to big occasions

 

Barrett Hayton: 15.4 (7-27)

Joseph Veleno: 17 (9-27)

 

The most controversial is probably Barrett Hayton. He is a super hard working guy who is moving up. Craig Button has him #7, but he is not a big scorer, and so two services have him at #19 and even #27 (Robinson, Hockey Prospects). At first glance, I want skill and scoring, so he wouldn't be my pick (he does have skill, but not sure about #12 overall skill). And Veleno is an all around good, but not great at one thing guy, but ISS has him at #9, and Robinson at #12 and Sportsnet at #14, so he's there on the edge of the list. I separate them because I'd go with one of the other 5.

 

* combines scouting rankings from Sportsnet, Robinson, Hockey Prospects, ISS, and Craig Button (is range from low to high).

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I don't mind the idea of trading for an existing player if we can pull that off. I'm as much about this dang team getting off the playoff misses as anyone. The only thing is that we need elite talent and teams are careful about trading that away, and if they do, then why did they? Teams have to be either really stocked with talent and needing cap space or early in a long term rebuild to make that talented player for the #11 pick plus move.

 

There is elite talent in the first round if you draft right, and especially if you can trade up. No, it's not NHL ready next year, but for most teams that's how they get their best players, by far. If we trade up and get say a Wahlstrom that is a 1C or 2C for years. I can't imagine if we'd have traded our pick last year and no Necas.

 

I hope we can move a D man and get lucky in UFA to get two existing players without giving up our first rounder.

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I'm good with a trade up, and i'm good with trading the 1st-rounder for cash and prizes.  The one thing i'm not good with is stepping up to the podium and picking 12th.

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6 hours ago, OBXer said:

I don't want to trade up I want to trade. I don't want to wait for Aho to move to center or make sure Lindy is the real deal. I want to take my first round draft , combine it with a prospect and player and go get a top center. I don't want to look two, three or five years down the road. The only good use of our draft pick is a trade.

I understand your sentiment OBXer, but I don't know if we can afford it atm. The cupboard is still pretty bare IMHO, when you look at our prospects at forward. Aside form Necas, who are we reasonably confident will have good nhl careers let alone great or elite? There are still too many questions around Gauthier, Zykov, and the rest. 

 

I really wish FA was before the draft this year. If TD/new GM can attract the right pieces here through UFA, then I am a whole lot more comfortable with drafting for the future. For all the work RF did in improving our prospects, I still don't see us as being very rich in prospects, players, or picks. Looking at existing players and prospects that we could use to acquire the pieces we need, I see us decimating the system. We have a lot of unknowns or unwanteds that we are hoping to trade for those "someones" we have been missing. Then we have to replace the people we traded away. 

 

The only place I see us having value is in our D corps. If we can trade Faulk and Hanifin, with some prospects/picks can we get a top 6 forward back? We have to get Bean and McKeown up soon, are we comfortable with them as the 3rd pair? Or can we then bring in a veteran D, hopefully RHD, to help Slavin and Pesce learn how to be the "old man"?

 

My main point is there are way to many variables for me to even come close to being as confident as you sound with your decision. Therefore I am in no position to judge/get upset with whatever course the new GM takes. I just hope the new GM will be a little more open with the fan base, Ron Francis was only slightly more expressive than a brick wall.

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7 hours ago, OBXer said:

I don't want to trade up I want to trade. I don't want to wait for Aho to move to center or make sure Lindy is the real deal. I want to take my first round draft , combine it with a prospect and player and go get a top center. I don't want to look two, three or five years down the road. The only good use of our draft pick is a trade.

So does anyone think our 1st, Faulk or Hanifin and a prospect other than Necas could get the type of player we are looking for. Any likely candidates? We should be good at playing this game after 9 years of practice (so far resulting in zero moves).

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