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2018 NHL Draft

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DevilDog, I think we trade Faulk or Hanifin plus whatever we need to get a proven scorer, preferably one who has size and speed and will go to the front of the net. Replace Faulk or Hanifin with an experienced defenseman to fill the role vacated by Hainsey. A top prospect who can contribute in 1-3 years would be great, but a proven player who can contribute NOW, and set an example for our yutes would be better. I think I’m talking to myself!

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Well, it looks like to me, we have a new ringer in the mix!! With the latest on Hanifin, that is the reported concussion, we may have lost, if it was ever considered, one of our more valuable trading chips to dangle? If that be the case and another team not want to take on what may now be considered "damaged goods" albeit one single concussion, our course of action may be simplified?

 

On another front, with so much focus, good or bad, on Bill Peters, I'm beginning wonder if Chicago might cut Joel Quenneville loose. Would any on here consider him for our next HC(we'd be really taking on the mantra of Chicago2 with that move)?

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7 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

On another front, with so much focus, good or bad, on Bill Peters, I'm beginning wonder if Chicago might cut Joel Quenneville loose. Would any on here consider him for our next HC(we'd be really taking on the mantra of Chicago2 with that move)?

 

 

Sorry, i had to go get a cloth to wipe the drool from my chin.

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34 minutes ago, realmdrakkar said:

 

 

Sorry, i had to go get a cloth to wipe the drool from my chin.

Good, as might happen depending on GM hire of course.

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10 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

On another front, with so much focus, good or bad, on Bill Peters, I'm beginning wonder if Chicago might cut Joel Quenneville loose. Would any on here consider him for our next HC(we'd be really taking on the mantra of Chicago2 with that move)?

 

In a heartbeat. He needs a change and at least he got more than 87 points out of his team and made the playoffs.

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In the absence of lottery luck?

 

Jesperi Kotkaniemi 

 

Scouting Report 

Alert and versatile forward with good speed and a wide range of attributes who has performed well beyond expectations as a 17-year-old playing key minutes in Finland’s top league. Kotkaniemi comes across as a smart, clean player with or without the puck and can play either center or wing. He is used on the penalty kill and in late-game situations, showing defensive prowess regardless of the job he’s assigned. He has a nose for sniffing out opposing intentions, and his quick hands and keen vision can turn a run-of-the-mill enemy breakout into a quality chance for him or his mates. One skill that stands out is his playmaking ability — Kotkaniemi is quite creative with the puck and threads the needle with ease. Kotkaniemi is a central figure on the power play, where he likes to control the puck along the wall and look for backdoor cutters or point men open in the high slot. Although he comes across as a playmaker rather than a finisher, Kotkaniemi has an excellent shot/release combination and can corral a puck in traffic and still wire it on net. He makes up for an average first step with excellent awareness and anticipation, and he’s difficult to knock off the puck once he maintains control. Strong on his skates and heavily involved in puck battles, Kotkaniemi is highly reliable on odd-man rushes but also nimble enough to cut sharply across the grain and throw defenders into a state of confusion.  https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2018-nhl-draft/2018-draft-prospects/2018-draft-profile-cw-jesperi-kotkaniemi/

 

Kotkaniemi is a strong two-way center that manages his own zone well and creates offensive chances…solid skater with good all-round mobility…not the fastest off the mark, but will get faster as he adds leg strength…quick, skilled hands with the puck…a strong playmaker not only because he puts the puck on his teammates blade, but more so because he possesses great puck poise and patience for the best option to present itself…he has a sneaky quick release and puts his shots on target…protects the puck in traffic and in tight spaces…has a tendency to get a little too individualistic at times and needs to consistently use his teammates to maximise his effectiveness…works hard each and every shift…gets into shooting and passing lanes to close off opportunities…willing to play the body to separate the puck or battle on the wall…defensively responsible…has very strong instincts and gets to the proper areas to both capitalize on a scoring chance as well as to break up a play defensively…solid in the face-off circle…still needs to fill out…has some solid upside as a big two-way center at the NHL level. (July 2017) https://futureconsiderations.ca/player/jesperi-kotkaniemi/

 

Observations:

March 2018 – In a draft that is very thin on center at the top of the draft, Kotkaniemi is arguably the top option at his position. Kotkaniemi has good size and distributes the puck well using his soft hands, creative vision and playmaking ability. In addition, he is a responsible defensive player. Kotkaniemi is not a bad skater, but it is one aspect of his game that could stand to add an explosive element and give him improved breakaway speed with a more explosive first step.

Kotkaniemi was a surprise omission for Finland at the World Junior, and playing key minutes as a 17-year-old against men in Liiga for Assat is producing at 0.5 points per game, and playing in key offensive and defensive situations. While he may have a high NHL certainty and upside it is important to note he has two-years remaining on his current contract in Finland. Peter Harling https://dobberprospects.com/jesperi-kotkaniemi/

 

 

 

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I think Kotkaniemi would be a great choice in our likely range. I my combo rankings he was second in the grouping to Joel Farabee, but Farabee is smaller and not a center, so if it came down to those two Kotekaneimi would be the more likely pick IMO. I like Oliver Wahlstrom, but I think he'll be gone for sure if we don't trade up. Kotakaniemi could go too, it just depends on how many teams go for D men as there are a lot of them ranked highly this year. Also, we have a few Finns around for Kotkaniemi to bond with.

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On 4/4/2018 at 1:51 PM, remkin said:

I think Kotkaniemi would be a great choice in our likely range. I my combo rankings he was second in the grouping to Joel Farabee, but Farabee is smaller and not a center, so if it came down to those two Kotekaneimi would be the more likely pick IMO. I like Oliver Wahlstrom, but I think he'll be gone for sure if we don't trade up. Kotakaniemi could go too, it just depends on how many teams go for D men as there are a lot of them ranked highly this year. Also, we have a few Finns around for Kotkaniemi to bond with.

Ahhh, the Annual Rite of Spring for us Caniac fans, girl(err, prospect) watching. Been so long since seeing a playoff game, I'm even unsure of how to act if we should get in? Well lets start this 3 month span until there's excitement for us with draft day. Sad that I have little enthusiasm for playoffs, as I hope they get done fast so that the draft comes quicker.

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The Flames did us a favor by winning their last game (they were not tanking since their pick went to the Islanders) and letting us stay at #11 pre-lottery.

 

So the ping pong ball odds are in. Assuming we don't trade up or down, here are the Canes odds before the balls fly:

 

The Canes have about a 66% chance of picking #11.

There is about a 23% chance that a team below us wins a top 3 slot and bumps us down to #12.

So, a nearly 90% (88.5%) chance we pick 11 or 12.

 

There is a 10% chance we move up to 1-3.

 

(There is about a 1.4% chance that two teams below us move up).

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16 minutes ago, caniac6 said:

We have a bunch of young prospects. I'd consider trading our #1 pick if that would bring us a scorer or a starting goalie.

 

 

I said somewhere recently that i'd be happy to see the Hurricanes trade up for a more 'sure thing' pick and i'd be happy to see them trade the 1st-rounder for a high-level roster player, but that the last thing i want to see if them go up and pick 10th or 11th (or whatever numbers i used at the time).  I stand by that.  Find a way to trade up to a top 3-ish pick or to trade that pick for a top-6'er.

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On 4/8/2018 at 9:28 PM, realmdrakkar said:

 

 

I said somewhere recently that i'd be happy to see the Hurricanes trade up for a more 'sure thing' pick and i'd be happy to see them trade the 1st-rounder for a high-level roster player, but that the last thing i want to see if them go up and pick 10th or 11th (or whatever numbers i used at the time).  I stand by that.  Find a way to trade up to a top 3-ish pick or to trade that pick for a top-6'er.

I agree with you here, realmdrakkar, particularly the part where you state in effect that your last choice is standing pat with the 10th or 11th pick. I mean thinking about it, unless there's some amazing goalie prospect that I've not heard about, and we could pick him up there, as deep as this draft is said to be, why would we pick up another body that just further overloads the pipeline we seem to haven AHL and Juniors at present because no matter who we'd get at that pick, I'd doubt they'd be immediately ready to fit into the big club unless they were the 1-3 pick?

 

Then thinking 1 step further, I wonder who we could trade with for a player, possibly Toronto, throwing in someone else for JvR?

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I have advocated trading up since I can remember. While it is true that there are always superstars found later in the first round or mid first round, the odds of finding the breakout player still increases the higher you draft. And while picks 5-30 usually produce some outstanding players, it is a few of them out of 25 vs. most of the top 5, and even better in the top 3.

 

The thing is that draft day trades and moves up and down are really not that common. Sure they happen, but the vast majority of time teams just step up and make their pick. I have theories on why, but one of them is the perception that the price is too high to move up. Every year teams near the top put out there that they are open to trading the pick. But they rarely publish the price. There is that chart that our guy Tlusky made based on prior trades, but my guess is that the actual asking price is higher than listed prices on that chart, probably much higher.

 

The year I was fortunate enough to lunch with Francis was the year we took Jake Bean and Gauthier at 13 and 21. Francis told me before that draft that after the top "few" guys, everyone else had enough downside that it wasn't worth trading up for them. I don't know exactly what he meant by the top "few" guys, but if we say a few is no more than 4, then he was saying Matthews, Laine, Dubois, and Pulljujarvi. If you go back and look at our draft discussion back then, it was obvious to me the Tkachuk was worth trading up for, and I argued that so was Clayton Keller, and Tyson Jost, and probably Alexander Nylander. Leaving Tkachuk out, Keller went #7, Nylander #8, and Jost #10. We picked three spots lower than Jost at #13.

 

The supposed cost to move up was: 11.6 points based on Tlusky to get to #7 and Clayton Keller. This equated to the #35 pick. We had the #43 pick. But if we combined our two first rounders we theoretically could have moved up to the #5 slot and picked Tkachuk or Keller. Or gotten something back and still gotten Keller.

 

Time will still tell whether Bean and Gauthier are better than either one of Keller or Tkachuk, and of course those deals simply may not have been doable despite the historical price being more than fair, but Keller put up over 65 points this year in Arizona, a year younger than Aho, and Tkahcuk has 37 goals in the NHL and is physically intimidating. Gauthier may still be Rick Nash and Bean may be a great offensive D man, but we talk of our need for elite talent and that is more often found at the top of the draft. Yes, there are massive exceptions, but it is still the rule. I'd take Tkachuk or Keller for both Gauthier and Bean right now, but Arizona and Calgary would need hospitalization after nearly laughing themselves to death at the mere suggestion.

 

This is all to illustrate my theory that the odds favor trading up to get those elite guys. But it rarely happens. So I'm forced to think it's because most GM's realize this same thing and refuse to trade down unless they get massive overpayment.

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I'll weigh in:

 

If I were GM, I would look to draft a project type guy who is going to take a while to make the roster.  

We have the following pushing for roster spots this upcoming year: Necas, Kuok, Wallmark, Foegele, McKeown, Zykov, Geekie (have you seen this kids post season numbers?)

2019 season: Elynuik, Ned, Mattheos, Roy, Gauthier, Bean, Saarela, and another of the prior 7 that didnt make it before

2020 season: Any of the prior 14 plus Booth and/or Helvig & Eetu (the center)

2021 is where I would want to see this new pick getting a shot.  

 

Now I'd expect a couple of guys added to trades to get an established player now.  In the end with 17 players challenging for spots over the next 3 seasons, I trade down as a bargaining chip to get an established player.  I'd say Ottawa's 2nd 1st rounder is Pitt's 1st rounder.  Maybe a swap involving Stone and some pieces are our end?  Or maybe a swap with Washington to get Holtby or get a chance to sign Carlson.  Defense?!?!?! what?!?!?!?!  Faulk's gotta go.  

 

If Chicago really loves Forsberg:  Swap of 1st rounders (they have Nashville's).  Crawford and 1/2 of Darling in there as well.  Darling will do better in Chicago, the game in Chicago was one of the few he looked like a goalie. Chicago saves 4 million and may get an ELC on the roster. 

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Craig Button had Geekie ranked #35 in his final pre draft ratings, just out of the first round. Much higher than just about anyone else. (BTW Button had Marin Necas at #4 overall).

 

Geekie is a lanky but tall kid at 6'2" and plays center. Projected to a possible third line NHL center. His current outburst is impressive indeed.

 

I didn't realize it, but Geekie was an overager who re-entered the draft a year older. Dobber prospects, last year before the draft, rated him as the #1 over-age re-entry player available in the draft.

 

Here is a scouting quote:

 

He dominates the draw and sees lots of ice time as a two-way player getting both offensive and defensive assignments and special team opportunities. He uses his size in front of the goalie effectively and has a quick release that he likes to use in close.

 

Apparently not the best skater nor a flashy high end guy, but he was also not seen as a top prospect early, and got playing time sparingly before his breakout year, and has steadily improved. These scoring breakouts by overage guys are not proof positive of an NHL career, but they push the chances way up. Roy, Foegele and McGinn all did that type of thing too.

 

He was a 3rd rounder, but #5 in the that round, so nearly a second rounder. Very interesting prospect to watch. He should be in Charlotte next year and that will be his first true proving grounds.

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So they are going to announce the draft lottery results before the Vegas game tomorrow. They plan to announce all of the picks except the top 3 lottery picks which they will announce during the second intermission.

 

So what to look for?

 

We have roughly a 2/3 chance of picking in our spot: #11, but slightly more than 20% chance of getting bumped down. Second we have about a 10% chance of moving into one of those top 3 slots.

 

So, the first thing is not being called into the #12 spot. If we are not called there, it is at least a minor victory. Then we want to not be named. If we are not named at or before #11, we have won a top 3 pick. We cannot pick 4-10, so if they skip us we are big winners and just have to wait and see "how" big.

 

It is only about a 3% chance, but if we got #1 overall, it could be interesting because the undisputed #1 overall is a D man. Do we pick him and trade some of our current D for forwards or do we trade down? But at 3%, just fantasy fodder.  Just a bit better at 1/10, but there are elite forwards in the top 3 of this draft.....

 

So we probably pick #11, and around 90% pick 11 or 12, but you never know....

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My wife is off with her cousins for a birthday party Saturday night to Wrightsville Beach. This is a good thing so she won"t hear me yelling, Particularly if we're not chosen #12 or #11.

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For completeness sake, there is a 1.1 % chance of two teams moving past us and pushing us into #13, and less than .1% chance that all three lottery teams come from below us and push us into #14. That would be nuts.

 

 

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C'mon, new owner, the franchise needs a boost.  The fix is in for us to win the lottery.  

 

The Cavs and Pens did it, why not us?  Cant say either of those were big market teams at that time.  

 

Although, HIGHLY unlikely man if we did, I would work for free to be the GM this year.  Basically an open roster and about 1000000 possibilities to make us better.  Kid in a candy store type stuff right there.  

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