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Off-Season 2018

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So with Brindy and Wadell in place, what are the predictions for Steve Smith?  I had him probably headed towards Calgary, but the latest moves may changed that calculus.

Edited by LakeLivin

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6 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

So with Brindy and Wadell in place, what are the predictions for Steve Smith?  I had him probably headed towards Calgary, but the latest moves may changed that calculus.

Today is Dundon likes our Management team day. Smith will stay. First move is to decide who will be the new Kinetico Ambassador? 

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7 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

Smith will stay. 

I doubt it, but hope you're right. Maybe he becomes the special teams guy and Wesley gets the D. Following BP to Calgary would be tough for Smith, especially when they're playing their up-province rivals. "First you score a goal for them, now you coach them??"

 

Edited by top-shelf-1

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2 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

Today is Dundon likes our Management team day. Smith will stay. First move is to decide who will be the new Kinetico Ambassador? 

Rod!

 

”After my usual 22-hour workout, the first thing I reach for is a tall glass of...”

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On 5/7/2018 at 5:06 PM, super_dave_1 said:

Since I've said all along that we don't know what went on behind the scenes, "just business" makes sense to me.

 

Its hard to fire somebody (especially a legend) and put a positive spin on it.  I think Dundon was trying to soft pedal it, and when he saw that wasn't working, ripped off the band aid.  That doesn't seem so classless to me. 

Or maybe Dundon was trying to bait Francis into quitting by demoting him, thereby not having to pay the balance of his contract. Like demoting the bank president to the head of the teller line. Then when that didn’t work, take away his office, and so on. I get not being satisfied with the job Ronnie did, but just fire him. Don’t leave him sitting in the building twisting in the wind. Generally, when other teams have fired GMs, they don’t leave them hanging in purgatory first.

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18 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

I get not being satisfied with the job Ronnie did, but just fire him.

That wisdom cuts both ways. Ronnie could have just quit and chose to force TD's hand.

 

And that's what I think happened. Based on what we've heard about RF's management style, I think he played a game of chicken, underestimated TD's resolve, and TD won. 

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I had wondered why Waddell suddenly popped up a couple of seasons ago. Then when PK wanted out I thought Waddell was the facilitator to help with the process. Now he's the new GM. Payoff for the completion of the sale?  I might be seeing the boogie man, but it just seems strange.

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28 minutes ago, winger52 said:

I had wondered why Waddell suddenly popped up a couple of seasons ago. Then when PK wanted out I thought Waddell was the facilitator to help with the process. Now he's the new GM. Payoff for the completion of the sale?  I might be seeing the boogie man, but it just seems strange.

:coverears:

 

I'd rather think: ☀️??

 

No violence ? unless DW thinks hockey means this: ?

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Maybe I'll be an oddball and just be the lone voice in support of Waddell.  Let's give the guy a chance.  He just brought the mojo and we landed 2OA.  How can you look mojo in the eye again and badmouth the guy?

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16 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

Maybe I'll be an oddball and just be one of two voices in support of Waddell

Waddell may have been instrumental in the Thrashers' demise, but he also oversaw administration and finances during the three years PK had completely disengaged and was busy being sued by his own kids, helping keep this team in Raleigh.

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1 hour ago, coastal_caniac said:

Maybe I'll be an oddball and just be the lone voice in support of Waddell.  Let's give the guy a chance.  He just brought the mojo and we landed 2OA.  How can you look mojo in the eye again and badmouth the guy?

Nothing about Waddell’s history excites me, but now he’s the GM so we have to give him a fair chance. When asked about the difference between Atlanta and here he did have a good answer. There were 9 members of the ownership group in Atlanta, and they also owned the basketball team. Here, he answers to one guy who is passionate and focused only on the hockey team. The first thing he needs to do is not screw up the gift we got in the draft, and step up and draft Svech. Second, and trickier thing, is figure out the goalie situation. Don’t know that we can cut Darling loose yet, but we need someone else with a legitimate resume to be a respectable #1 goalie in camp come September. Finding the right someone and getting them here is going to challenge any GM.

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The most Canes thing ever would be doing something so stupid it kicks *edit*.  That's kind of how I feel right now.  Let's kick *edit* in a bent strange way and win.

 

I'm in.

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Being patient. Let's see what TD and DW do in the off season before we scorch the dinner. I'd hate to waste a good tenderloin if it might be an option. 

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Very interest to see what Geekie can do. Thanks to gocanes for keeping us up with this guy's blowout stats this year.

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21 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

Maybe I'll be an oddball and just be the lone voice in support of Waddell.  Let's give the guy a chance.  He just brought the mojo and we landed 2OA.  How can you look mojo in the eye again and badmouth the guy?

 

I'm pretty much with you on this. We might as well get on the train.  If this franchise hadn't been the subject of relocation talk and having terrible attendance, we wouldn't be as worried.   

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I saw speculation we could trade with Oilers who seem less than thrilled about picking #10. Puljarvi and the #10 pick for a D man was thrown out there.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

I saw speculation we could trade with Oilers who seem less than thrilled about picking #10. Puljarvi and the #10 pick for a D man was thrown out there.

 

 

GM Realm is already putting together several trade options to try to reel in Puljujarvi... if the #10 could come in addition to, wowsers...

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The number 10 pick, if getting someone like Wilde would be great. Pulj is the prize.  

 

They are looking for more offense from their defense. 

 

I would do Faulk, Lindholm (preferable Rask), and a small piece for RNH and Pulj.  

 

 

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It has been said, and I know because I was one of the ones who said it, that with slightly better than average goaltending this team would have made the playoffs. And that case can be made. But then again.....maybe not so fast. We really failed in the O zone again too. While clearly having far and away the worst "#1" goalie in the NHL hurt badly, and is the single biggest repair needed, we missed the "goals for" mark too, and by a good bit.

 

Canes GF: 228

 

Lowest GF East Playoffs: 242

Lowest GF West Playoffs: 235

 

I would point out that Anaheim and LA, the two lower West teams are big, physical, shut down teams.

 

Now, last year Ottawa got in with fewer goals than we had this year, but not only did they trap their way in, not only did they get all-world goaltending that year, but they got a lot of luck and barely slipped in.

 

The median playoff team in NHL had about 264 goals.

The top 6 playoff teams cut off was 270 goals.

 

It is fair to say that 260 is a reasonable goal for a cup contender, and 270 is better.

 

YES, offense is only one side of the puck, but it consistently trends better than defense for making the playoffs, though clearly both matter and in the end goal differential is really the most important thing in the goals stats.

 

The point is, that while goalie needs fixing, and yes, it is job 1, we are going to want more offense too. Just fixing goalie is not enough.

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10 minutes ago, remkin said:

The point is, that while goalie needs fixing, and yes, it is job 1, we are going to want more offense too. Just fixing goalie is not enough.

 

Exactly. Now how to achieve that

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32 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

Exactly. Now how to achieve that

 

I think we put Svech and Necas out there, and get one more guy, and use our Zykov/Foegele combo on the 4th line for more points there.

 

Of course history has shown that it is very difficult to predict a list of player's productivity for an upcoming year. But I think it is fair to say that we had more historically under-performing guys than over-performing. This is true both for the individual's year to year production, and the generic production for the position.

 

Aho's 29 goals could be seen as over producing, but the guy went a bunch of games with no goals to start the season. TT had a career year, but do any of us think 23 goals is his max? Skinners 24 goals is far shy of his potential. Rask? How does 14 goals stack up? Even J Willy's 16 was a couple off his history. McGinns 16 was a very good year for him, but not a game changer in production, and then there's Lindholm, who we all seem to like, but 16 goals, while better than last year, is not enough. And Jordan Staal can do better than 19. But even leaving off improvements from current guys, I see three places we can get more.

 

1. Svech and Necas. These are likely our two studs of the future to go with Aho and TT. Svech could be a 100 point guy. But this year, we likely can count on say 17 and 20. This is in in line with comparables, but there is a lot of variability in rookie production. For this reason, these guys should be third liners, in the 6-9 slots. This will still be more production than we got from V. Rask, Derek Ryan, and Brock McGinn.

 

2. Pick up. If we can land a UFA of the JVR or Tavares variety, or make that trade for Hoffman etc. That is the most consistent way.

 

3. Yutes. Zykov and Foegele can score 20 goals in the NHL IMO. This is also a guess and could be wrong, and based on a small NHL sample, but it's my guess.

 

In order to do all 3 GM Remkin puts Zykov/Foegele on the 4th line. They won't score 20 goals there, but could chip in way more than our recent 4th lines.

 

If we hold guys on their goals for last year (a bad year for most) except bump Aho to 33 for not starting in the hole next year, put Skinner to 30, add in Svech, Necas, and JVR on an average year, we get 34 extra goals from our top 9. If we have McGinn, Foegele (or Zykov), and say Rask as a 4th line, how can they not get us at least 6 more goals than our historically anemic 4th lines? That's 40 extra goals, not counting improvements from Jordan, Lindholm, or TT.

 

Even leaving out any bump from the 4th line, adding 34 goals would bump us to 262 goals, assuming the D produced the same. No team with 262 goals has missed the playoffs recently.

 

Clearly we have to pick up that high producing vet, which is far from accomplished and we need pretty solid production from Svech and Necas. Also, if we move Faulk will lose a few net goals in the net. BUT there are wild cards like Zykov and Foegele and unknowns too. And Lindholm and Jordan should be able to net a few more on the other side of the equation.

 

I am not predicting this since we haven't even drafted Svech nor made any moves yet. And yes, these kinds of predictions are fraught with peril, but it is a way it could happen.

 

And despite all of this, fixing the goalie position is still more important. But we can do both.

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I'm not sold on a lineup filled with rookies and young first and second year roster players. The NHL is getting younger and there is no doubt the young hungry players bring excitement and energy along with their talent. How many of these young players can you add to a lineup without sacrificing the experience that often makes the difference in those tough games. I don't know the answer.

 

I do know I'm impatient now and want a team that can not only compete but win. A roster full of youth is a rebuilding team. Is that what we are again?

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10 minutes ago, OBXer said:

I'm not sold on a lineup filled with rookies and young first and second year roster players. The NHL is getting younger and there is no doubt the young hungry players bring excitement and energy along with their talent. How many of these young players can you add to a lineup without sacrificing the experience that often makes the difference in those tough games. I don't know the answer.

 

I do know I'm impatient now and want a team that can not only compete but win. A roster full of youth is a rebuilding team. Is that what we are again?

This is why I add that vet pick up. This is exactly why this is key for next year. As Svech and Necas develop I think they will be stars. If we still have Skinner, Aho and TT, that is a pretty solid top 5, not even counting anyone else. But add say JVR in there, (and Justin Williams) and that is a lot of goals in the top 6, none of them counted on from the rookies.

 

Exactly how to do it? JVR (or Tavares) would be my choice. This would allow us to possibly trade Faulk for a goalie? But lots of teams want these guys. I don't know how much brotherly love might influence JVR. I do get that these contracts can look bad in year 5 or 6. But if JVR can pot goals for 5 more years with the line up we could boast, I'm willing to worry about year 6 later.

 

But, if we had to trade a D asset, ideally Faulk (and get a goalie another way), we could get a Hoffman, say, this is a solid 25 goals and a vet.

 

By putting the star rookies down the line up, they are not counted on this year. And I don't count out that a Zykov or Foegele could pop and earn a slot higher up.

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