Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
OBXer

Off-Season 2018

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

And one of the top PPs in the league, to boot. NOT.

 

Other teams are interested because GMs often believe a change of scene will work a miracle. And who are we (or the stats) to convince them otherwise?

 

Good point but are you laying all the PP woes on Faulk or Hanifin?. Yeah there are always GMs that think they Know better but that doesn't change the fact Hanifin and Faulk are the guys they want. Now if Slavin was available he would or should be on every teams wish list. But he isn't available or shouldn't be.

 

We are going to move one of Hanifin/Faulk. My point is don't move both. I don't care how deep your Charlotte D-corp is the magic of Slavin/Pesce doesn't happen that often. I think it is time to use some of that Charlotte D-corp in a trade. I'll admit that I have a prejudice against to many rookies on a team no matter how good they look. I also realize the league in general is getting younger so maybe you can add a bunch of rooks and win. I doubt it, but maybe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, OBXer said:

They better have flags !

 

I just pray Dundon doesn't do something stupid and bring in any kind of Whaler-themed jersey.  I'd also be highly ****** if the Canes were to ever take the ice wearing a Whaler jersey.  The Whalers have nothing to do with the Hurricanes.  The team has been here 20 years.  Leave that crap in Hartford where it belongs.

 

 

Edited by coastal_caniac
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, coastal_caniac said:

 

I just pray Dundon doesn't do something stupid and bring in any kind of Whaler-themed jersey.  The Whalers have nothing to do with the Hurricanes.  The team has been here 20 years.  Leave that crap in Hartford.

 

This unsavory thought has crossed my mind too. I don't mind recognizing the connection. They were a fabled franchise with an iconic logo and in the early days the player connections were strong. But Hartford isn't Carolina. We are our own franchise. We are quirky at times but we have a history all our own. A team that took this state by storm, won division, conference and Stanley Cup titles. The fans are unique and brought us tail gating, dumb and dumber,dancing grandma, commie bathrobes and one of the most successful All-Star games ever. Hockey in Carolina is unique,fun and exciting. We have a history and it belongs to us.

 

What worries me is Dundon doesn't share this history. He sees 9 years of failure and not the success. I applaud his efforts to make us better but I would like him to celebrate or at least publicly recognize our success. His biggest marketing move thus far was to sell Whaler Ts at the Eye. All well and good but outside of being a novelty it does nothing to promote our legacy.

 

The flags on our sweaters are our reminder, our iconic symbol. I'm not married to the flags but to me they represent us as much as the whale represented Hartford. Lets start a new chapter but lets make it the next Carolina chapter. We are the once proud, exciting and champion Hurricanes. I hope our 3rd jersey reflects that.

 

I guess you struck a nerve coastal. Sorry I jumped on your soap box  but  it bothers me when some ignore our history. "Keep the Flags"

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

This unsavory thought has crossed my mind too. I don't mind recognizing the connection. They were a fabled franchise with an iconic logo and in the early days the player connections were strong. But Hartford isn't Carolina. We are our own franchise. We are quirky at times but we have a history all our own. A team that took this state by storm, won division, conference and Stanley Cup titles. The fans are unique and brought us tail gating, dumb and dumber,dancing grandma, commie bathrobes and one of the most successful All-Star games ever. Hockey in Carolina is unique,fun and exciting. We have a history and it belongs to us.

 

What worries me is Dundon doesn't share this history. He sees 9 years of failure and not the success. I applaud his efforts to make us better but I would like him to celebrate or at least publicly recognize our success. His biggest marketing move thus far was to sell Whaler Ts at the Eye. All well and good but outside of being a novelty it does nothing to promote our legacy.

 

The flags on our sweaters are our reminder, our iconic symbol. I'm not married to the flags but to me they represent us as much as the whale represented Hartford. Lets start a new chapter but lets make it the next Carolina chapter. We are the once proud, exciting and champion Hurricanes. I hope our 3rd jersey reflects that.

 

I guess you struck a nerve coastal. Sorry I jumped on your soap box  but  it bothers me when some ignore our history. "Keep the Flags"

Well stated OBXer, Bravo. Please see if there's some way to send to Tom Dundon? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, OBXer said:

 

I love it. I needed a smile. Oh and give Carrick and McKeown a chance to learn. I'm sure they will figure out how to turn the puck over?

 

 

As Paul Coffey once (might have) said, "It doesn't matter who turns the puck over, as long as somebody turns the puck over."

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, OBXer said:

 

Dahlbeck signed with the KHL so he is out of the mix

I can see Carrick paired with TVR on third pair

I can't see a combination of Carrick and McKeown replacing Faulk and Hanifin.

If Hanifin goes I think Fluery is paired with Faulk

If Faulk goes I think we go shopping

Where will Bean fit in all this. I don't know

no matter how you use it the +/- stat means next to nothing

 

Lets ask this. Why are other teams intersted in Hanifin. Why are other teams interested in Faulk. Because they are puck moving defensemen with a scoring upside that can anchor a powerplay. That is what every team wants. Sure they have to play a decent defense but not a light out defense. They are there to help make plays and score.

IMO you can trade Faulk or Hanifin but not both unless you can get a puck moving D-man with a scoring upside back or through another trade.

I agree and would not trade both Faulk and Hanfin. I'd trade Faulk. But if Hanifin brings back the right guy maybe. 

 

But if we did trade both it's possible that we do that in concert with bringing back a veteran d man, either as part of those trades or another move. Or, if we traded both and got unbelievable fire power up front, and a top NHL goalie, while risky we could get by with them both gone. Again, I wouldn't do ti.

 

Obviously we disagree on the plus minus in the extreme. It is a terrible, foggy stat, but it is not worthless when guys persistently end up on the extremes. Even in the fog you can eventually see the tanker coming at you.  But the better thing would be better stats. Still, I'd bet my left...glove that if someone is sitting there actually watching Faulk and marking down when he specifically led to a scoring chance against, it would correlate with his plus minus. And on the plus side, Jordan Staal's yearly plus or near even rating against the league's top centers is not meaningless either. What we need is a study that directly correlates outlier +/- players with those direct observation stats. That would prove it one way or the other. Until we do, just have to agree to disagree, but I'm ready to get rid of guys who are more than -100 and add guys who are at least relatively even. 

 

If the plays Faulk makes are that important, it's hard to see how we have given up 100 more goals while he's on the ice than we've scored. Yes, the PP. But even if Faulk's PP play leads to 12 more net goals per season, he's giving them back X2 on the rest of his plays. 

 

I'd be very surprised if Bean starts anywhere buy Charlotte. I guess if we trade Hanifin his chances go up, but my sense is not only does he need a year down there, but the team is generally happier with D men getting at least one year there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I'm not poring over that paper; I edit doctoral dissertations IRL, so that would the opposite of enjoying my free time. That said, I'd (1) be interested to know if the study was controlled for momentum of the trailing team, and (2) bet that it wasn't.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this seems to me the key question. No coach is going to leave a gaping net at his end of the rink if his team is producing sustained pressure at even strength. Sustained pressure often results in penalties to the opposing team, and thereby late-game power plays. Pulling the keeper with five minutes left, OTOH, increases the odds that a totally random clear will put the game completely out of reach.

 

Mathematical analyses are all well and good--until real-life circumstances that defy mathematical factoring rush in.

I think the sustained pressure thing is a fair question and I'm not really sure, maybe I'll read it in full. The ideal thing would be to compare time with the goalie pulled with time just before the goalie is pulled. Sure, if the team is dominating play maybe hold off a bit, but most coaches seem to pull around 2 minutes or less, and there is a lot of room between 5:40 and two minutes. Also, just in my observations, while one team is sustaining 5 on 5 pressure the other team is packed in too, and I just don't recall a lot of goals. But 6 on 5 the chances are higher quality very frequently IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, OBXer said:

 

This unsavory thought has crossed my mind too. I don't mind recognizing the connection. They were a fabled franchise with an iconic logo and in the early days the player connections were strong. But Hartford isn't Carolina. We are our own franchise. We are quirky at times but we have a history all our own. A team that took this state by storm, won division, conference and Stanley Cup titles. The fans are unique and brought us tail gating, dumb and dumber,dancing grandma, commie bathrobes and one of the most successful All-Star games ever. Hockey in Carolina is unique,fun and exciting. We have a history and it belongs to us.

 

What worries me is Dundon doesn't share this history. He sees 9 years of failure and not the success. I applaud his efforts to make us better but I would like him to celebrate or at least publicly recognize our success. His biggest marketing move thus far was to sell Whaler Ts at the Eye. All well and good but outside of being a novelty it does nothing to promote our legacy.

 

The flags on our sweaters are our reminder, our iconic symbol. I'm not married to the flags but to me they represent us as much as the whale represented Hartford. Lets start a new chapter but lets make it the next Carolina chapter. We are the once proud, exciting and champion Hurricanes. I hope our 3rd jersey reflects that.

 

I guess you struck a nerve coastal. Sorry I jumped on your soap box  but  it bothers me when some ignore our history. "Keep the Flags"

 

Well stated OBXer!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, remkin said:

I'd be up for some revision of our last 3rd jerseys. Plus we seemed to have an amazing record in black. 

 

 

Love the blacks, just hope that if they bring them back, they go for white numbering because that red-on-black was a *edit* to try to make out on the tube.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, caniac6 said:

I'm watching Pickleball doubles on tv. October can't come soon enough.

 

I don't know how it plays on TV, but apparently pickleball is tremendously popular here in the state I'm in. They have it in the State Games, and it's one of the few sports that reach their entry limit. I guess there's a lot of old folks who like it or something.... :o;)

 

Only about three weeks 'til the draft, isn't it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, remkin said:

So the WSJ ran a short piece on a new paper that also shows the best time to pull the goalie if down a goal is......5:40. 

 

And a comparison showing how in all sports, especially football and hockey coaches almost never do the mathematically clear thing if it is unconventional and leaves them hanging for criticism. 

 

Here is the actual mathematical paper:

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3132563

 

Here is the WSJ piece.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-a-hockey-coach-should-pull-the-goalie-1527516852

 

Make of it what you will, but this is the second one I've seen that says the same thing, yet almost no NHL coach pull the goalie even close to 5:40, and even doing so much later than 5:00 can draw intense second guessing of the coach, as we know. 

 

I saw that and was going to post, but the site was down at the time and I forgot.  I didn't read the whole thing, but I did skim a bit.  Couple thoughts / excerpts:

 

  • "Among other things we assume two average teams on scoring and defense, both sides playing at full strength, the puck in neither offensive zone, and that there is no momentum in goal scoring."  [there's your answer Top]
  • it was pull at 5:40 for a 1 goal deficit, 11:40 when down 2, and 17:50 when down 3, with the strategy being that if you scored when down multiple goals, you'd go back to even strength until the next time point.
  • higher scoring teams should pull later than 5:40, lower scoring teams earlier.
  • "The team that pulls its goalie nearly quadruples the probability of its opponent scoring, while not even doubling its own chance to score. But expected value of goals is not the appropriate criterion.  What matters is expected number of standings points. A team down a goal with short time remaining gains a lot by scoring, and loses little if the other team scores as losing by two goals is no worse than losing by one."

While that's the "mathematically optimal" strategy, utilizing it would only result in an average of 1.76 more points a year over not pulling the goalie, and even less over pulling the goalie as per the historical NHL "standard" of around a minute left.  How many coaches would take the grief from all the times the strategy didn't work (especially when pulling the goalie way early when down multiple goals) in exchange for an additional point or two on the season?  Probably just Patrick Roy (he actually did it, lol),   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

While that's the "mathematically optimal" strategy, utilizing it would only result in an average of 1.76 more points a year over not pulling the goalie, and even less over pulling the goalie as per the historical NHL "standard" of around a minute left.  How many coaches would take the grief from all the times the strategy didn't work (especially when pulling the goalie way early when down multiple goals) in exchange for an additional point or two on the season?  Probably just Patrick Roy (he actually did it, lol),   

 

I guess it would depend on if you have a bubble team where 2 points could mean playoffs. It's as many points as are expected from winning a few more face-offs. Just an example of going with or against conventional wisdom. But yes, that is it. Most coaches, if they know the numbers don't think it's worth the grief they're going to get.  But as an informed fan base, if the coach does do it, we should know it was the right move.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, remkin said:

I'd be up for some revision of our last 3rd jerseys. Plus we seemed to have an amazing record in black. 

I loved the black uniforms. I’d love to have them back exactly as before. As Duke and N.C. State have proved, take black uniforms, trim them out in your primary team color, and they look great and are popular with players and fans. Aside from the fact that I feel no kinship with the Whalers, putting the Canes in green and blue would give us 3rd uniforms that look as wrong as those powder blue unis did on the Penguins. Bring back the black. Please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, remkin said:

 

I guess it would depend on if you have a bubble team where 2 points could mean playoffs. It's as many points as are expected from winning a few more face-offs. Just an example of going with or against conventional wisdom. But yes, that is it. Most coaches, if they know the numbers don't think it's worth the grief they're going to get.  But as an informed fan base, if the coach does do it, we should know it was the right move.

 

Oh, I'm with you.  And I've seem several instances fairly recently where pulling earlier either worked (one Canes game) or gave the team a chance, where an even earlier pull might have done the trick (a Caps playoff game when they were down 2, scored 1, then ran out of time).  I just can't see a coach other than Roy pulling less than halfway through the 3rd when down 3 or at the 11min mark when down 2.  I believe Dundon alluded to pulling the goalie when talking about using advanced stats for decision making.  My prediction is that we'll see Rod pull earlier, but not at the "perceived extreme" suggested by the paper.  

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah pulling the goalie down 3 at 17:50 has to be unheard of. Imagine trying to explain that. Still, if the other team scores and you're down 4, just pack it in. Would be pretty cool if a coach tried it and it worked though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the time we've been doing the extreme early pull I can only recall it working once. I really want to say we were more successful waiting but that's what the advanced stats are for because I surely don't have that statvto whip out. Of course adding a generational player could also change how often pulling early works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Patrick Roy has done it:

 

2014: "With the Avalanche trailing, 5-1, and set to go on a 5-on-3 two-man advantage, Roy decided to lift goalie Semyon Varlamov with more than 13 minutes to play in the game to give his team a very rare 6-on-3 advantage.  It didn't result in a goal, and the Avalanche went on to lose 6-2, but this really isn't the wrong call. It was a small window where Colorado had an opportunity to maybe get back into the game with a couple of goals, and the worst case scenario is you end up losing by five goals instead of four."

 

2016: "With his team trailing, 6-2, and about to go on a power play thanks to an interference penalty on Blackhawks forward Dennis Rasmussen, Roy decided to pull goalie Calvin Pickard with 10:06 remaining in the game to give his team a 6-on-4 power play.  No, it didn't result in a goal, and yes, the Avalanche still ended up losing the game 6-3, but you can't fault Roy for trying something here. At that point the game is probably already lost, and the worst thing that happens is you lose 7-2 instead of some other equally lopsided score. So why not take a shot and see if you can strike for a quick goal and maybe get back into the game and give yourself a fighting chance?"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, caniac6 said:

I'm watching Pickleball doubles on tv. October can't come soon enough.

Dude, if you've never played, you can't understand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

The draft rights to Elynuik and Carroll have expired.  Im surprised they let Carroll go as he looked to be a solid shutdown guy.

I'm a bit more surprised about Elynuik who is huge and fairly fast and looked intermittently pretty good last year in camp and Traverse. I guess he must not have progressed that much. Maybe he indicated he wouldn't sign too. Probably doesn't end up mattering, but thought he'd at least get a shot in the minors. I think it speaks to our prospect depth. Like Spencer Smallman not making the Charlotte squad last year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, remkin said:

I'm a bit more surprised about Elynuik who is huge and fairly fast and looked intermittently pretty good last year in camp and Traverse. I guess he must not have progressed that much. Maybe he indicated he wouldn't sign too. Probably doesn't end up mattering, but thought he'd at least get a shot in the minors. I think it speaks to our prospect depth. Like Spencer Smallman not making the Charlotte squad last year. 

 

I got the impression that it was Elynuik's decision to pass rather than the Canes not offering him a contract.  Still speaks positively to our prospect depth, as part of Es decision would likely have been the other prospects he saw between him and an NHL spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, remkin said:

I'm a bit more surprised about Elynuik who is huge and fairly fast and looked intermittently pretty good last year in camp and Traverse. I guess he must not have progressed that much. Maybe he indicated he wouldn't sign too. Probably doesn't end up mattering, but thought he'd at least get a shot in the minors. I think it speaks to our prospect depth. Like Spencer Smallman not making the Charlotte squad last year. 

 

Didnt smallman make the squad but was hurt in early/ preseason even? Was out until January and sent down to ECHL to get his legs back.  At that point Charlotte was set and he was going to get more PT in Florida.  Not sure though.

 

questions on contracts, do contracts count until july 1st or after the season is over?  If its July 1st, it could explain why we didn’t sign them two.  We couldn’t until some of these elder Checkers fall off.  With the Geekie and Maelanen signings we ran out of spots.  Again not sure but a thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...