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Off-Season 2018

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8 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

Based on how things played out, I’m wondering if management saw no sure thing to bring in as a #1. For the last several years, Cam has not been an adequate #1. There was risk in any decision they made, but with full commitment by Darling, they must have felt his ceiling was higher than Cam who can’t carry the load of a #1 anymore. Seems Darling is all in on the physical side of what went wrong. Only time will tell if he can get over the mental strain of last year. He’s overcome long odds before though.

 

It was a Very Bad Year to have a goalie situation.  The goalies at end of contract, tradeable, or UFA were well known, and the crop was not great.  That would mean trading for a proven #1.  With the apparent thinness in the ranks, what price would a team ask to trade a #1?  Extremely high...

 

The whole situation was catastrophic for the Canes.  Period.

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10 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

Speaking of the lineup, at some point I hope somebody in Charlotte now can force their way in and be significant going forward.  We all say Francis rebuilt the farm but until we are making hams it is what it is

 

FWIW, people outside the organization think we are going to get significant rookie help this year.  Sportsnet put 3 Canes in the top 30 contenders for ROY this coming season (Svech, Necas, Zykov).  Not saying that is a guarantee, but it is not just organizational propaganda that says we are going to get some help from the minors this year.

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On ‎7‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 8:35 PM, Canesfanforever said:

Someone  needs to thank me for the hard work I put through .   

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha... okay...

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha... okay...

I was considering calling and getting a rescue unit over by your house, top, as I've ben waiting for your response on that?? Thought you'd taking deathly ill? Good to see you alive and kicking. Further, I sincerely hope that was just a tongue in cheek comment on that author's part, but then you never know?

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Kucherov just re-signed with the Bolts at 8 x 9.5 million. They have 66 million already tied for next year with 3 defensemen, 2 goalies, and 7 forwards on the roster. 

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25 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

Kucherov just re-signed with the Bolts at 8 x 9.5 million. They have 66 million already tied for next year with 3 defensemen, 2 goalies, and 7 forwards on the roster. 

gocanes, not questioning your math, but are you sure $66mil for just 12 players? If so, and again I'm not questioning your math, what will they do to fill out the rest of the team, low cost players?

Edited by KJUNKANE

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3 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

gocanes, not questioning your math, but are you sure $66mil for just 12 players? If so, and again I'm not questioning your math, what will they do to fill out the rest of the team, low cost players?

Capfriendly is my friend

 

Look at next seasons cap hit- 65.8 million.  Stamkos, Kucherov, miller, Callahan, Palat, Johnson, Killhorn, Stralman, Hedman, Sergachev, Vas, and Dominique are the only players with contracts next season.

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How on Earth is Tampa close to signing Karlsson? They would have to move at least one, if not two other big salaried players. 

 

Tampa is a good example though of top players willing to go to an alternative market if the team rocks.

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If I was Tampa, if you could get Karlsson for close to 9 mil per then you do it.  Killhorn and Callahan would be the targets to get rid of. I believe that has been the hold up so far.  The third team, supposedly NYR, doesnt want to be the dumping site for Ryan and Callahan without much added.  

 

Callahan and Killhorn are the casualties.  You try to re-sign point. That basically gives them 11 million to fill 3 roster defenders and 5 roster forwards.  You get ELCs and older veterans that will take low money like they do with Pitt and Chicago.  The trouble becomes Vas and Sergachev 2019 offseason.  

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3 hours ago, ironman87 said:

 

FWIW, people outside the organization think we are going to get significant rookie help this year.  Sportsnet put 3 Canes in the top 30 contenders for ROY this coming season (Svech, Necas, Zykov).  Not saying that is a guarantee, but it is not just organizational propaganda that says we are going to get some help from the minors this year.

I saw a guy pick Necas and Svech as top 5 candidates for the Calder. And this year is no slouch year with Dahlin, Mittlestadt, Petterson, and other guys who have been just destroying it at lower levels. 

 

I agree on Zykov being ready to produce, and personally I remain very high on Foegele for this year. Both of these guys killed the AHL, and also produced in small "n" games in the NHL. (Wallmark is also a forgotten guy who really did even better in the AHL, but just hasn't shown it in his small NHL "n" games). 

 

In terms of enough scoring, I think it's there, but it's wildly unproven. I expect Necas and Svech to both be dynamic game changers, and that will, well change everything. But will they hit the ice running and stay consistent? Hard to expect that of rookies. 

 

Another point is the net changes on D and in goal. IF we trade Faulk, then the effective swapping of Hanifin and Faulk for Hamilton and de Haan would slightly favor more goals and points, but really it's a push. However, on goals allowed its a dramatic swing in our favor. Sorry ahead of time, but the +/- is just the easiest way to at least glance at this, and that swap moves us from two guys who were -46 together to two guys who were +13 together. Considering we had the worst goaltending in the league last year and Darling's flop was close to historic, hopefully we at least get better goaltending too, even if not great. 

 

The other thing is that we've created a tighter defense but still one that can move the puck. So that should all help on offense. The article on Darling talks about how players were so terrified about Darling that they were essentially afraid to go on offense. Hopefully that is changed too, though that remains to be seen.

 

All of that said, the ultimate completion of what it at least appears that the committee is up to, would be to finally make a deal that moves Faulk out. Not only do we gain defensively, but ostensibly the move would produce another top 6 forward, and so we wait....

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

Capfriendly is my friend

 

Look at next seasons cap hit- 65.8 million.  Stamkos, Kucherov, miller, Callahan, Palat, Johnson, Killhorn, Stralman, Hedman, Sergachev, Vas, and Dominique are the only players with contracts next season.

I am missing something here. Are you referring to 2019-2020 as next year? I admit to being tired and distracted, worked late last night and prepping dinner for tonight, but my quick read shows Tampa with 12 forwards, 8 D, and 2 goalies signed for $76.1M for 2018-2019....

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Just now, DevildogKodi said:

I am missing something here. Are you referring to 2019-2020 as next year? I admit to being tired and distracted, worked late last night and prepping dinner for tonight, but my quick read shows Tampa with 12 forwards, 8 D, and 2 goalies signed for $76.1M for 2018-2019....

yes next season, not the upcoming season. That is how I word it, sorry for the confusion.

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11 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

yes next season, not the upcoming season. That is how I word it, sorry for the confusion.

No problem, figured asking was the easiest way to solve my confusion.

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5 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

I was considering calling and getting a rescue unit over by your house, top, as I've ben waiting for your response on that?? Thought you'd taking deathly ill? Good to see you alive and kicking. Further, I sincerely hope that was just a tongue in cheek comment on that author's part, but then you never know?

KJUN!!! What up, man??

 

Just back from the best vacation ever. Posted something at some point from somewhere... Cleveland? Mmmm, must be the magic beans.

 

Any old way, sadly, no, I sensed no tongue-in-cheekness (cheekiness?) on my first reading and still don't. It's a new world, compadre. 

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On 7/9/2018 at 1:21 PM, wxray1 said:

Basically, he completely "lost it" on all levels.

I can see that (or maybe I'm just willing myself to). Either way, I kinda figured something was up with his head when he replied, late in the season, to a critic on Twitter along the lines of "Yeah, well, I'm an NHL goaltender, and you're not." Paraphrasing from memory there, but that was the clear message. (Someone here posted it when it happened; gocanes, maybe?) 

 

Anyway, it just seemed to betray his level of frustration; these guys generally ignore such provocations. Here's hoping he's past that and embracing the responsibility - for both his play and his off-ice regimen - that comes with having a club sign you to the kind of money he is making.

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4 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I can see that (or maybe I'm just willing myself to). Either way, I kinda figured something was up with his head when he replied, late in the season, to a critic on Twitter along the lines of "Yeah, well, I'm an NHL goaltender, and you're not." Paraphrasing from memory there, but that was the clear message. (Someone here posted it when it happened; gocanes, maybe?) 

 

Anyway, it just seemed to betray his level of frustration; these guys generally ignore such provocations. Here's hoping he's past that and embracing the responsibility - for both his play and his off-ice regimen - that comes with having a club sign you to the kind of money he is making.

Another season like last, and he can tweet," I used to be a NHL goalie, and you're not"

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2 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I can see that (or maybe I'm just willing myself to). Either way, I kinda figured something was up with his head when he replied, late in the season, to a critic on Twitter along the lines of "Yeah, well, I'm an NHL goaltender, and you're not." Paraphrasing from memory there, but that was the clear message. (Someone here posted it when it happened; gocanes, maybe?) 

 

Anyway, it just seemed to betray his level of frustration; these guys generally ignore such provocations. Here's hoping he's past that and embracing the responsibility - for both his play and his off-ice regimen - that comes with having a club sign you to the kind of money he is making.

 

That was me.  Some troll on Twitter posted a tweet for Darling drinking a water bottle and replacing the bottle with a vodka bottle.  It said here is Scott Darling after letting in 13 goals for the 900th time this season.  It was something of the sort.  I think it drove him over the deep end too.

 

The culprit immediately deleted his or her Twitter account from the back lash.  A real low blow. There were a lot of red flags with him last season.  He was consistently out of position and took way too long to get back in the crease.  I'm not sure he will rebound but I hope he does and that he just wasn't a product of a great team (Chicago).

Edited by bluedevil58
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22 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

He was consistently out of position and took way too long to get back in the crease. 

Well, just showing up so heavy... not good.

 

People in recovery are nothing if not resilient. I'm expecting good things from Scott this year. Life has taught me that while both suck, I prefer having hope and being disappointed to expecting the worst only to have it confirmed. And who knows, maybe you get lucky.

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47 minutes ago, OBXer said:

Interesting to me because of all of the detailed new stats we're supposed to be using. One would think a guy like Tulsky would be all over that stuff.

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

Interesting to me because of all of the detailed new stats we're supposed to be using. One would think a guy like Tulsky would be all over that stuff.

 

sorry rem, I don't understand what point you're trying to make?

Edited by LakeLivin

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25 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

sorry rem, I don't understand what point you're trying to make?

Back a while ago it was mentioned that Dundon was going to be using new stats to help make especially personnel decisions. It was not specifically stated, but I think they are using a company that uses people who watch every game and record specific proprietary stats on each player. They then compile profiles about that player's affect on play.

 

I don't want to call these advanced stats which are really just fancy estimates attempting to recreate a player's relative affect on things via shots and shot suppression as surrogate markers, because this is much much better than those "advanced stats", which is really just a fancier and slightly better bad stats than plus/minus.  This is direct measurements of lots of little things that affect actual scoring chances or prevent them. 

 

While there are specific companies that do this and offer that data raw and interpreted to clubs, having a guy like Tlusky in charge of making sense of it seems smart but also seems to indicate that we really are serious about doing it. 

 

IMO we are already using this data in trading Lindy and Hanifin and picking up Hamilton and de Haan, and probably even targeting Saad, (coming off a bad year in traditional hockey stats, these stats might have shown he was still strongly positively affecting things and due for a bounce back). 

 

Anyways, these stats seem far better than shot based advanced stats, and far far better than plus minus. Unfortunately we low level folks are probably not going to get to see these expensive stats, so we will have to keep butting heads about bad stats. Still, it is good to know that the brain trust has far better info.

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10 minutes ago, remkin said:

Unfortunately we low level folks are probably not going to get to see these expensive stats, so we will have to keep butting heads about bad stats.

 

I absolutely don't agree. ;)  It's up the the individual fan to understand the level they are talking at. 

 

 

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I don't know, I don't have a math degree, but trying to predict all this stuff on shots generated and shots suppressed when a guy is on the ice vs not seems better, but still bad version of plus minus to me. Its a game attempt to use available data to make conclusions that are better than plus minus, but compared to actually tabulating specific plays all over the ice, and their affect on actual scoring chances those advanced stats seem a same degree of bad. 

 

But I'm not saying advanced stats = +/-. I'm saying advanced stats are worse than these new stats in the way that plus minus is worse than advanced stats. 

 

+/- < advanced stats << new stats (I really don't know what to call them). 

 

Just my opinion. I could be overvaluing these new stats because I've long wondered why we didn't have something like that and now we do, I'm guessing that Tlusky would say they look at all of it, these new stats, advanced stats, maybe even the dreaded plus minus in some cases.


One thing I know for sure though is that we should all be glad we have Tlusky deciding what's good data and not me though. 

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