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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

advance stats prediction of rookie production

 

Vollman has created a point producing predictor based on league points scored and how that typically transfers over to the NHL.

 

Predictions

Svech- 43.5 points

Zykov- 34 points

Necas 26.5 points

 

Svech 's is close to what I would expect next season.  I still think he will get close to 50-55. 25 goals and 25 assists.  

Zykov, if playing next to Aho and Turbo plus PP time, should get around 40 just based on opportunity 23 gs, 17as.

Necas should get around 40. 14 goals, 26 assists for his first year.   

 

It is interesting. It's certainly data-based, which is good, but I really have to take the "over" on all 3 of them, but especially Necas. 26 points is a pace similar to Brock McGinn, of two seasons ago. I just have to think at least 35 points, probably more, but he is hard to predict.

 

Zykov has already played 12 NHL games and has 8 points. Thats a .67 ppg pace already in the NHL which would expand out to 54 points. I think he probably ends up in between that and his AHL projection model prediction, which would be 44 points. Since he has to get that many games and stay in the top 9 to do it, he probably does come up short, but if he gets top 9 minutes and plays 75 or more games, he could push 40. Zykov at 35 points is probably a pretty good bet, but I think he can do more. 

 

Svech. Vollman is doing points but Svech scored a crazy number of goals/game. I still put him closer to 50 points, but probably 25 goals which is a net positive of 9-10 from last year (RNH put up 24 his rookie year). AND Svech has that crazy upside potential that could be way higher. RNH, the #1 overall, put up .45 goals per game his draft year in juniors, Svech put up .91 goals per game). Laine put up .37 goals/game in his Finnish Men's league, then went on to put up .49 goals/game in the NHL. I'm not saying Svech will put up 36 goals, only that it is possible. 

 

Still, the sobering thought is that the initial conclusion of that article is that Svech, Necas, and Zykov would be projected to only equal Ryan, Lindholm and Stempniak, and thus not provide more scoring than last year. The article does go on to point out that Ferland, Hamilton, and Martinook will score more than their replacements thus leading to more goals. 

 

What it says to me though, is that trading Faulk for a proven productive top 6 forward just makes sooooo much sense, and also points out why I don't think we can move Skinner unless the guy he brings back scores at least 25 goals. (We need more goals than last year's team).

 

Hamilton and de Haan easily replace the points of Hanifin and Faulk, but with way way way better defense. Then if Svech, Necas, and Zykov just replace our third liners production from last year, and we keep Skinner, we just need some more offense and we're good. So, say Faulk for Schmaltz (or Saad), gets us a 20 goal, 50 point guy to now bump up the spot held by last year's #9 forward, and nets us at least 8-10 more goals. 

 

The season after this one, Svech, Necas, Zykov etc should bump up, possibly way up, and we won't need that extra guy as much.

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Rem, how many goals did Skinner score his rookie year? 36? 37? He was a goal scorer in juniors and so was Svech. I don’t see any reason Svech can’t match what Skinner did as a rookie. But it is kinda dangerous to count on it.

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16 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

Rem, how many goals did Skinner score his rookie year? 36? 37? He was a goal scorer in juniors and so was Svech. I don’t see any reason Svech can’t match what Skinner did as a rookie. But it is kinda dangerous to count on it.

They both played in the same league   the OHL . The only difference is  Svechnikov was a Rookie ( which he won ROTY )   as with Skinner  had a few seasons  before being selected the year he played   .  Historically  The OHL is considered the toughest league to score in  since defense and goal tending is played at a high value there than the WHL  or the QMJHL  .   Interesting thing though about Skinner is that he was used as a Center for the Kitchener  Rangers   And it was best decided to use his talents for a winger position instead .   I do often wonder how he would fit at the center position  now in days  but who knows .  

 

Svechnikov has played  right wing  over in Russia ,  The Ushl  and  last season in the Ohl .

 

The one thing I would love to learn  about  is how often it was for someone to likely to score a goal  during Skinners Stint  at the ohl when Jeff played  in the past   and have it   compared to Svechnikov's Stint  last season .   I cant find any information about the frequency of this  compared to each other  in retrospect .  It would give  us an idea of how much Svechnikov Could contribute this season as opposed to Skinners rookie year  when he played . 

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13 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Historically  The OHL is considered the toughest league to score in  since defense and goal tending is played at a high value there than the WHL  or the QMJHL  .

This is completely backwards. 

 

The O is a decent all-around league, but the W is and has historically been considered the best training ground for defensemen in Canada, and it's not even close. It is also the most physical of the three Canadian junior leagues, by far. 

 

Defense and physicality in the O - and even more so in the Q - are entirely optional. All emphasis is on scoring, to get fans' butts in the seats in the more populous eastern part of the country, where there are many more entertainment options for potential ticket buyers than there are in the west.

 

Also, the arenas where the big-market eastern Junior teams play are "dedicated," i.e., used (and owned) by the clubs--not "shared" with NHL teams, as is true in Calgary (where the Hitmen play in the Saddledome) and Edmonton (where Rogers Place is home to the Oil Kings). So, in the east, it's a little (albeit only a little) tougher for the cartel - which profits massively off of the teenagers whose NHL dreams it fuels - to line the club owners' pockets. High-scoring games make it easier to fill the arenas, so in both the O and the Q, offense is the top priority.

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Skinner is a good example of the high end, as is Laine. Heck Ovechkin put up 50 goals his first season, Auston Matthews 40, Laine 36. Still those are the guys at or near the top of the list, and it has to be quite variable since the guys who disappoint tend to fade from memory. 

 

OK in the middle of typing this, I decided to look at guys at the very top of the draft who played their first year. Most guys taken as the first or second forward did play, though some played shortened seasons. I have projected them out to 78 games if they did. This is not entirely fair since there may have been reasons they didn't get into all games besides injury, but then some guys may also have been not put in scoring situations their first years. If I projected them, I put an asterisks. Goals then points:

 

Hirschier: 20/52

Patrick: 13/30

Matthews: 40/69

Laine 39*/68* (actually put up 36/64 in 73 games)

Eichel: 24/56

McDavid: 28*/83*

Marner: 19/61 (Marner was not a top 2 but added anyway)

MacKinnon: 24/63

Barkov: 12*/36*

Yakupov: 27*/51* (ironically by far his career best)

Galchenyuk: 15*/30*

RNH: 23/42

Landeskog: 22/52

Sequin: 12*/25*

Hall: 28*/50*

Tavares: 24/54

Duchene: 24/55

Stamkos: 23/46

Kane: 21/51

 

Strome, Reinhardt, Draisaitl, and R. Johansen did not play or played only a handful of games.

 

Of the guys who played most of the season, there are 19 though Kane's draft I've listed. Only 4 of the 19 could be listed as complete disappointments in rookie production: Barkov, Galchenyuk, Seguin and Patrick. So 15/19 scored essentially 20 goals or more nearly 80%. 

 

However this list also shows that breaking 25 goals and 55 points was not common. On goals only Matthews and Laine actually did it, and only McDavid, Hall and ironically Yakapov projected to it. So 2/19 (10%) did it and 5/19 (26%) were on that pace.

 

Just eyeballing that list somewhere around 24 goals and 54 points seems to be the sweet spot for these super elite guys in their 18 y/o season. 

 

It should be noted that every guy, including those that did not play eventually become solid stars except: Yakupov and Strome, with RNH and Galchenyuk maybe a bit more average. (Patrick is too soon to tell). Hard to say if Strome is going to eventually arrive, so if we take him and Patrick out, every player was at least a very solid second liner up to superstar except for the great swing and miss: Yakupov. 

 

Of the 21 guys (excluding too soon to tell last year's guys and Strome) taken at the very top, 17/21 are legitimate stars, 3 are solid, and one is a wash. Thus 81% of the guys taken at the very top have become legit stars and superstars. 

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31 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

This is completely backwards. 

 

The O is a decent all-around league, but the W is and has historically been considered the best training ground for defensemen in Canada, and it's not even close. It is also the most physical of the three Canadian junior leagues, by far. 

 

Defense and physicality in the O - and even more so in the Q - are entirely optional. All emphasis is on scoring, to get fans' butts in the seats in the more populous eastern part of the country, where there are many more entertainment options for potential ticket buyers than there are in the west.

 

Also, the arenas where the big-market eastern Junior teams play are "dedicated," i.e., used (and owned) by the clubs--not "shared" with NHL teams, as is true in Calgary (where the Hitmen play in the Saddledome) and Edmonton (where Rogers Place is home to the Oil Kings). So, in the east, it's a little (albeit only a little) tougher for the cartel - which profits massively off of the teenagers whose NHL dreams it fuels - to line the club owners' pockets. High-scoring games make it easier to fill the arenas, so in both the O and the Q, offense is the top priority.

Image result for what memeImage result for did you just make up stuff

 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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On 7/13/2018 at 4:42 PM, KJUNKANE said:

Wonder how many of you have taken notice of renovations going on at PNC to locker and workout areas? When I mentioned that to Mrs Kjun, her comment was "Great, that gives Rod more room to kill the guys". Some truth to that sentiment.

They might add a second floor next year. When they opened the ceiling they discovered a tremendous amount of space under the lower bowl. 

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6 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Image result for what memeImage result for did you just make up stuff

 

Your video makes no distinctions among the CHL leagues for Defensive development specifically. It also cites no sources for the "factors" it claims apply to the leagues, but even if they are accurate those factors indicate a separation of just .05 - that five one hundredths of one point - between the O and the W. So I'm not sure what you're trying to point out.

 

But here's a fact you can look up: Of the last three NHL defensemen to win ROTY - Ekblad, Myers, and Jackman - two came up in the W. And here's another: The Canes two highest-ranked D draft picks of recent years (who played in Canadian Juniors) - Fleury and Bean - both did their Junior stints in the W. 

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Your video makes no distinctions among the CHL leagues for Defensive development specifically. It also cites no sources for the "factors" it claims apply to the leagues, but even if they are accurate those factors indicate a separation of just .05 - that five one hundredths of one point - between the O and the W. So I'm not sure what you're trying to point out.

 

But here's a fact you can look up: Of the last three NHL defensemen to win ROTY - Ekblad, Myers, and Jackman - two came up in the W. And here's another: The Canes two highest-ranked D draft picks of recent years (who played in Canadian Juniors) - Fleury and Bean - both did their Junior stints in the W. 

That's good .    Fleury is regarded  currently  as a 7th line defense man , He is good  no doubt  and I'm Glad he is a Cane .   Bean Who I have a lot of hopes on  has not cracked the Hurricanes line up yet but I do believe he might this year .   But for the time being he will be with the Checkers  killing it there to hopefully get a call up sooner than later .   I would like to add though 

 

Hamilton who the Canes  recently got from trade last month  spent  his  minor years in the OHL  as Did  de Haan   prior to becoming members in the  NHL .  Im not sure what your point you were trying to make was  but I could go on if you want to play this little game of yours ? How's your Norris List looking btw ?

Edited by Canesfanforever

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I suggest somebody moves this to the Minor League ******* Match thread.

 

 

 

The asterisks are not mine. I guess we cannot discuss relieving the pressure.

Edited by winger52
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32 minutes ago, winger52 said:

I suggest somebody moves this to the Minor League ******* Match thread.

 

 

 

The asterisks are not mine. I guess we cannot discuss relieving the pressure.

Popcorn anyone Iggy solves this crap

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With the locker room reno going on they should freshen up the artwork and move on from the Cup pictures. Over time that stuff starts to haunt more than help; glory years that no one on the roster relates to at this point. Part of establishing a newer fresher identity will be that it might help the kidlets take more ownership. 

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1 hour ago, raleighcaniac said:

With the locker room reno going on they should freshen up the artwork and move on from the Cup pictures. Over time that stuff starts to haunt more than help; glory years that no one on the roster relates to at this point. Part of establishing a newer fresher identity will be that it might help the kidlets take more ownership. 

What pics should they put up instead?  All our playoff trips since 2009?  All our individual trophy winners since 2009?  FatHeads of players like HWSNBN?  ;)

 

 

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6 hours ago, AWACSooner said:

FatHeads of players like HWSNBN? 

 I was thinking of a dartboard, or even one of these you can put over the front of a net and fire pucks at.

 

Too bad, because until he completely quit I liked HWSNBN.  

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I wanted to find and image to capture what I think of as the "dog days" of hockey summer. So little going on that we talk about locker room renovations and which junior hockey league plays the best defense...

 

But I found this instead and it made me smile, so here: 

 

If we can't solve our goalie problem we could also sign this "Wiener" guy.

 

dog.jpg

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51 minutes ago, ironman87 said:

 ...until he completely quit I liked HWSNBN.  

 I was there that night, and it became the night of the great HWSNBN heckling.  After watching him stand at the wrong blueline for about 20 seconds of a shift, watching the action at the other end, he was dead to me.

Edited by super_dave_1

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21 minutes ago, remkin said:

I wanted to find and image to capture what I think of as the "dog days" of hockey summer. So little going on that we talk about locker room renovations and which junior hockey league plays the best defense...

 

But I found this instead and it made me smile, so here: 

 

If we can't solve our goalie problem we could also sign this "Wiener" guy.

 

dog.jpg

Fair goalie but a better hunter. 

 

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7 hours ago, AWACSooner said:

What pics should they put up instead?  All our playoff trips since 2009?  All our individual trophy winners since 2009?  FatHeads of players like HWSNBN?  ;)

 

 

 

How about a list by year of every team that has made the playoffs since we won the Cup. The reality of the Canes being listed once should send a message.

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2 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

 

Ah, thanks.  I get it.  It isn't a sub-basement, it is all that headroom above the dropped ceiling.  Glad TD is ready to expand into it.  That should be a pretty big undertaking.  Sounds like the current project is a freshen up.  That's a good start.

 

Also agree it is time for some other art.  Just as the fans are tired of the 5th anniversary of the 3rd anniversary of the 4th anniversary of the cup, I'm sure the team sees this as ancient news.  "Dang, I was still peeing my pants when they won the cup."

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