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Rating the Players, End of Season, Who to Keep?

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9 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

But there needs to be an overall plan in place before we start making moves, and I don’t see how we formulate one without a GM in place.

Or, BP had a plan when he came for his interview - complete with a PowerPoint presentation - four years ago, and RF didn't/couldn't execute it, due to the owner$hip $ituation. 

 

Everything about BP's system - which is the system being played by all the top teams - dictates defensive D first. But we currently have a D corps where only two-thirds is committed to that. Look how great Karlsson is - on BOTH sides of the puck - in Ottawa. And look where Ottawa finished.

 

I have always believed that back-end scoring is overrated, because it is. If you have the horses up front, the D's job in the O end is simple: Keep the puck in, put it on net when the opportunity presents itself, and don't get caught pinching. Our two supposed offensive defensemen cannot consistently do any of those three things. Time to move on. 

Edited by top-shelf-1

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14 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I don't know if we're just talking past each other but I'll say it again, and I'm completely serious when I do: I DON'T CARE IF OUR D EVER SCORES. Any goal we get from D should be gravy, not expected, if they're doing their PRIMARY jobs.

 

We are talking past each other a little bit. We both agree changes need to be made. I suppose where we differ is that you see a D that is all shut down while I see in today's NHL the need for scoring and rushing Dmen. I think we both agree that with a better scoring forward group it might not be so important to have a rushing Dman on each pair. I think we also agree that if trading Faulk or Hanifin gets us a scoring forward we should make the deal. I just wouldn't trade both as some have indicated they would.

Quote

On Fleury, he gave the puck away roughly half as much as both Faulk and Hanifin, even adjustting for his 10 or so fewer GP.

I don't think it is games played but minutes played that is the tell. Comparing Slavin and Faulk is probable a more accurate comparison.  Slavin is by far the better all around Dman.

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33 minutes ago, OBXer said:

I don't think it is games played but minutes played that is the tell.

Fair enough, though that wisdom cuts both ways. if Faulk had not played so many minutes, he would have been less of a liability, by sheer virtue of not having as many opportunities to give the puck away. 

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3 hours ago, OBXer said:

 

We are talking past each other a little bit. We both agree changes need to be made. I suppose where we differ is that you see a D that is all shut down while I see in today's NHL the need for scoring and rushing Dmen. I think we both agree that with a better scoring forward group it might not be so important to have a rushing Dman on each pair. I think we also agree that if trading Faulk or Hanifin gets us a scoring forward we should make the deal. I just wouldn't trade both as some have indicated they would.

I don't think it is games played but minutes played that is the tell. Comparing Slavin and Faulk is probable a more accurate comparison.  Slavin is by far the better all around Dman.

 

I was always under the impression that a big part of BP's coaching philosophy involved Dmen joining the rush.  I also am in full agreement that we should not trade both Faulk and Hanifin, but one is likely to go.  I think there's more trade value in Hanifin due to his age, upside, and organizational depth at LHD, but Faulk's in an awkward situation with his contract expiring after next summer.  I feel like trading Faulk at this point wouldn't net us more than a 1st and a prospect, which is the opposite of what we need.  Maybe if he was packaged with someone to land a center (O'Reilly or Duchene).

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My take:

 

A legit starting goalie is the number one priority.

thanks-captain-obvious.jpg

 

 

Faulk has to go for the best return we can get, even though it may mean "selling low".  He's emblematic of what the organization needs to fix imo, including (or maybe especially) intangibles like lack of toughness, drive, and an "I've got my teammates back" attitude.  He's not the only one lacking on that last one, but as one of the longest tenured Canes, and a supposed leader, he jumps out at me as the worst offender.  Having said that, he has value and should bring back quite a bit more than some used hockey equipment.  I think he can be a valuable contributor to a team, but it needs to be a different type of team than the Canes.

 

Hanifin goes if he can bring back a relatively young, proven top 6 scoring forward, or, if not yet completely "proven", one with at least as much potential to be a legit top line scorer as Hanifin has of being a legit top pair defenseman.  Let's face it, Hanifin has been, and still is, as much about "potential" as "realization".  I can't see another GM giving full value based on Hanifin's potential unless the return is similar, especially when compared to the development curve of contemporaries like Werenski, Provorov, and McAvoy.  In spite of my best wishes, I can't see Hanifin being the centerpiece for a deal that brings back a proven young top line wing at this point, let alone a #1 center.

 

Fill in the holes created on D with a combination of Chex and other offseason acquisitions, either by signing UFAs or by using some of our prospects and picks as trade pieces.

 

Edited by LakeLivin

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9 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

Who would you package the both of them to get?  I want a name.

I'd move both right now for the rights to talk to Tavares without competition for the next two months. I'd also want Dennis Seidenberg. Yes he is old and a pending FA, and only played 28 games this year due to an injury 15 games in. But in those 15 games he was their best-rated D-man at +10 and 19:20 TOI, picking up where he'd left off the year before--when, in 73 games, he had the same TOI, put up 22 points in 73 games, and was +25. He's just the greybeard we need on the back end, and he's got history here to boot. Give him 15 minutes a night and charge him with mentoring Fleury and McKeown. And if we can't sign Tavares after two months of selling him, we don't want him anyway. We've still solved a major problem and have more money to target guys among the pending FAs you listed.

 

I'd also offer both guys to Joe Sakic for Gabriel Landeskog. I'd send both to Montreal for Max, who still has a year left on his deal. 

 

Faulk is a salary drain. Hanifin is poised to be. We've already got ample (and more defensively responsible) guys to replace both. Unloading both their back-end liabilities and salaries and maximizing the value of both to get the help we need up front is a no brainer. 

 

Edit to add: I'd also offer both for any bonafide #1 goaltender.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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13 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I'd move both right now for the rights to talk to Tavares without competition for the next two months. I'd also want Dennis Seidenberg. Yes he is old and a pending FA, and only played 28 games this year due to an injury 15 games in. But in those 15 games he was their best-rated D-man at +10 and 19:20 TOI, picking up where he'd left off the year before--when, in 73 games, he had the same TOI, put up 22 points in 73 games, and was +25. He's just the greybeard we need on the back end, and he's got history here to boot. Give him 15 minutes a night and charge him with mentoring Fleury and McKeown. And if we can't sign Tavares after two months of selling him, we don't want him anyway. We've still solved a major problem and target guys among the pending FAs you listed.

 

I'd also offer both guys to Joe Sakic for Gabriel Landeskog. I'd send both to Montreal for Max, who still has a year left on his deal. 

 

Faulk is a salary drain. Hanifin is poised to be. We've already got ample (and more defensively responsible) guys to replace both. Unloading both their back-end liabilities and salaries and maximizing the value of both to get the help we need up front is a no brainer. 

 

Edit to add: I'd also offer both for any bonafide #1 goaltender.

 

So you'd trade our two biggest trade assets for the rights of one player without any guarantee that he'll actually sign here?  Whatever GM we do end up with would get laughed right outta here.  Landeskog is likely unavailable, and Pacioretty is arguably not worth either of them, let alone both.  Do agree on the goaltending part though.  I wouldn't mind us taking a look at Holtby.  I think the Caps might would do a Faulk/Holtby swap, especially if Carlson bolts after this CBJ series. 

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1 hour ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

Whatever GM we do end up with would get laughed right outta here.

Unless he signs Tavares. And since Tavares must okay the destination under his modified NTC, doing so would suggest he's willing to sign. And BP is about to have his undivided attention for the IIHF.

 

Holtby for Faulk? Now that my friend is laughable indeed--but not as funny as the notion that Faulk is even in the same class as Carlson. Carlson will re-sign in DC for many millions of dollars, especially with Orpik and Niskanen getting on in years. But DC might be sick of Ovie if there's another early out, and I'd offer Hanifin, Faulk, Rask and Darling for him and Holtby. 

 

I know you see Hanifin and Faulk as prime assets. I don't. I don't think either brings much back on their own, but together, they absolutely could. Our prime assets are Skinner, Jordo, TT, Aho, Slavin, Pesce, and Lindholm. Not prime but keepers: McGinn, TVR, Fleury, Willy. Everybody else should be trade bait, and even a few of the guys in my list should too, if the return is right. The only guys I see as untouchable are Aho and TT, and Pesce and Slavin. Beyond their individual worth, the chemistry those pairs have shown bodes very well for the org long term.

 

With a change of scene, maybe Hanifin and Faulk play every minute like they currently play about half of them here. That would have to be the sales pitch: Getting moved will wake them up. Because if this season is the best Noah can do when he's trying to get an extension? And this season is Faulk's idea of captaining? Both guys are waaaaaay more comfortable than they should be.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Unless he signs Tavares. And since Tavares must okay the destination under his modified NTC, doing so would suggest he's willing to sign. And BP is about to have his undivided attention for the IIHF.

 

Holtby for Faulk? Now that my friend is laughable indeed--but not as funny as the notion that Faulk is even in the same class as Carlson. Carlson will re-sign in DC for many millions of dollars, especially with Orpik and Niskanen getting on in years. But DC might be sick of Ovie if there's another early out, and I'd offer Hanifin, Faulk, Rask and Darling for him and Holtby. 

 

I know you see Hanifin and Faulk as prime assets. I don't. I don't think either brings much back on their own, but together, they absolutely could. Our prime assets are Skinner, Jordo, TT, Aho, Slavin, Pesce, and Lindholm. Not prime but keepers: McGinn, TVR, Fleury, Willy. Everybody else should be trade bait, and even a few of the guys in my list should too, if the return is right. The only guys I see as untouchable are Aho and TT, and Pesce and Slavin. Beyond their individual worth, the chemistry those pairs have shown bodes very well for the org long term.

 

With a change of scene, maybe Hanifin and Faulk play every minute like they currently play about half of them here. That would have to be the sales pitch: Getting moved will wake them up. Because if this season is the best Noah can do when he's trying to get an extension? And this season is Faulk's idea of captaining? Both guys are waaaaaay more comfortable than they should be.

 

Holtby for Faulk isn't a crazy idea at all.  Goalies historically don't come at too high of a price, even the good ones.  Washington is in a weird situation with their goaltending.  They've seemed to have made the transition this year with Grubauer as their starter that they have to re-sign at the end of the season, and they have an A+ goalie prospect in Samsonov about to come to NA next year.  Furthermore, Holtby has had an off year in general, and is in the same predicament as Faulk.  Faulk isn't a replacement for Carlson, but they would need some replacement on the right side if Carlson bolts.  And Carlson could bolt.  So combining that with their goalie surplus could make a 1-1 swap doable.

 

You've made it well known your views on Hanifin, Faulk, and offensive dmen in general, but their names do have value to them.  To put it in perspective, Hanifin was our leading scorer on the blueline, and was selected to the all-star game, and is only 20 years old.  Luke Schenn was drafted in the same spot Hanifin was, was viewed in the same regard as Hanifin, and was able to land Toronto a 30 goal scorer in JVR.  I could see a trade packaged around Hanifin and parts for O'Reilly.  Faulk has plenty of accolades under his belt.  I know all you see with them is their +/-, but other teams know what a mess this team is, and how not having a balanced roster can affect individual stats.  NYR gave Shattenkirk $6mil per season after being a minus player on a championship caliber team.

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41 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

To put it in perspective, Hanifin was our leading scorer on the blueline, and was selected to the all-star game, and is only 20 years old.

Being the Canes' leading scorer on D does not impress me. It means he's 45th in a 31-team league among Dmen. Slavin matched his assists and had just two fewer goals--while staying home on D. And he was not "selected" for anything. He was appointed, and it was a slap in the face to Slavin and Pesce, who both work their butts off every shift. 

 

We do agree that the ASG appearance might have been a nice showcase that will encourage some GM to bite. Kinda like Faulk's (meaningless) C.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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43 minutes ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

I know all you see with them is their +/-,

Please, muddying the waters with downright falsehoods doesn't advance the debate. I've been one of the loudest critics of +/- as a single or even two-year determinant of player prowess. But when you're staring down a career -109? With just one year in plus territory (+1)? That tends to smooth out (to put it mildly) the stat's vagaries, especially when guys on the same team manage to stay in positive territory. 

 

There is no defending Justin Faulk. His career here should be over, and if he manages to salvage it elsewhere, good on him. But we should be done with him, A-S-A-freakin'-P.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Being the Canes' leading scorer on D does not impress me. It means he's 45th in a 31-team league among Dmen. Slavin matched his assists and had just two fewer goals--while staying home on D. And he was not "selected" for anything. He was appointed, and it was a slap in the face to Slavin and Pesce, who both work their butts off every shift. 

 

We do agree that the ASG appearance might have been a nice showcase that will encourage some GM to bite. Kinda like Faulk's (meaningless) C.

 

45th in D scoring on one of the bottom scoring teams in the league, could be seen as potentially being top 20 on a good scoring team.  And he’s 20 years old.  Regardless, these players do have more value than you may realize. Let’s just see how the offseason pans out.

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33 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Or less value than you think.

The only thing I will add to this is, unfortunately according to some jerk named Neilsen I live in the Caps viewing area so when we play the Caps I get their guys. While knowledgeable their voices grind on me. They are however big time hockey guys and while they may not be GM's their opinion means far more then any fans does and are closer to the inner circle of the NHL then we are. When watching those games they could not stop talking about the "great potential of the young Canes Dmen led by Faulk". Constantly saying how jealous most NHL GM's are what RF has amassed on the back end of the ice. Now watching the games I personally am ready to see Faulk move on and agree that his time here should be done, but I think he has a ton of value to other team in the league and most would blame his numbers on the team around him. Even more so when you consider the net minders have been at or near the bottom of the league for quite a few years. Kinda hard to have a better plus/minus number like that.    

Edited by Derailed75

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As far as Holtby is concerned I would wait to see who starts in net game 3 and how he does. Sure seems like Trotz may have made a mistake with Grubauer and if Holtby comes in and closes the door he wont go anywhere. 

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5 minutes ago, Derailed75 said:

Kinda hard to have a better plus/minus number like that.    

 

 

I respect everything else you said, but can't help pointing out in reference to this sentence that yes, it's kinda hard, but every other Hurricane defenseman except Hanifin has managed to have it, and this year in particular, a considerably better one.

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48 minutes ago, realmdrakkar said:

 

 

I respect everything else you said, but can't help pointing out in reference to this sentence that yes, it's kinda hard, but every other Hurricane defenseman except Hanifin has managed to have it, and this year in particular, a considerably better one.

True, my only comeback is the pairings with other top lines. I would like to know how many of the even strength goals were from top lines which both Hanifin and Faulk would have seen more of then the other guys

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1 hour ago, Derailed75 said:

True, my only comeback is the pairings with other top lines. I would like to know how many of the even strength goals were from top lines which both Hanifin and Faulk would have seen more of then the other guys

 

That and never having a star goalie or even a playoff team.

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3 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

As far as Holtby is concerned I would wait to see who starts in net game 3 and how he does. Sure seems like Trotz may have made a mistake with Grubauer and if Holtby comes in and closes the door he wont go anywhere. 

Well then, Grubauer May be available. He’s really shown a lot as Washington’s #2 this year ..... uh .... never mind.

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10 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

True, my only comeback is the pairings with other top lines. I would like to know how many of the even strength goals were from top lines which both Hanifin and Faulk would have seen more of then the other guys

This isn't so. Our top pairing at home (and when possible, on the road) against the opposition's top talent has consistently been Pesce/Slavin. Further, Faulk and Hanifin's cluelessness on D been glaring (to my eyes, at least) when we're in away barns and the opposition's having the last change forced BP to play one of them with one or the other of Slavin or Pesce. 

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8 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

That and never having a star goalie or even a playoff team.

Completely ignores Realm's point that everybody else defends just fine. 

 

Hanifin, Slavin, and Pesce all became fixtures on the Canes' blue line in 2015-16. Over those three seasons:

 

Slavin: +25

Pesce: +10

Hanifin: - 53

 

(So now of course you'll switch back to the meaninglessness of +/-.)

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11 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

When watching those games they could not stop talking about the "great potential of the young Canes Dmen led by Faulk". Constantly saying how jealous most NHL GM's are what RF has amassed on the back end of the ice. Now watching the games I personally am ready to see Faulk move on and agree that his time here should be done, but I think he has a ton of value to other team in the league and most would blame his numbers on the team around him.

You know this because you've polled those teams?

 

Really not trying to be snarky here, Derailed, but GMs look at the same numbers we all do. Pinning an A or a C on a guy only makes him a leader in the eyes of clueless broadcasters from other teams. Think about what the Canes' own broadcasters have been saying about Faulk, most notably Tripp: "He has to be better." 

 

That is about as far as a guy whose check is signed by the org dares go. And Tripp went there repeatedly this season. 

 

When it comes down to improving this team, the first step is getting rid of chronic liabilities. By any measure, Hanifin and Faulk are our most glaring liabilities on D. If a change of scene turns them into world-beaters, I'm fine with that. But I've seen enough of both in a Canes' uni to know it ain't happening here.

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