Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
remkin

Traverse City 2018: Sept 7-11, Stacked Forwards

Recommended Posts

Ouch.  That was not a good outcome. 

 

Well, they've won in past years and it didn't mean much.  I'll have to take that as solace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Svech: "It's a little faster game than the OHL. ... It's much faster and physical here. Not a lot of chances to score" - How you gonna play in NHL, buddy?

And I still quite pessimistic about Necas and can't count on him being a significant contributor, as, in my perception, a lot of people here are excited about.

Maybe, as wxray said, it didn't mean much and they will get up to the level by the season start (at least, Svech).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am still bullish on Svech and Necas, but they are rookies and my fear is that in failing to bring a proven scorer in, (while letting one go for Pu), we may not have enough firepower, especially if Svech and Necas take some time to start producing. I am also bullish on Zykov and Foegele, but that's a lot of guys who have yet to prove it over time in the NHL. Meanwhile we have 7 NHL dmen and some capable guys in the AHL (and in from the KHL) on D.

 

Hopefully the right deal comes along sooner than later that flips a D for a proven forward.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s going to be harder to replace the goal scoring we gave up over this summer than many of you thought. Improved D in the NHL will help the kids, but only to a certain extent. Rookies are still rookies.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

Even if Svech, Necas, and Zykov only have decent rookie years, we’ve replaced our scoring from last year while removing most of the negative players.  

 

Where did we replace 30 goals from Skinner?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

 

Where did we replace 30 goals from Skinner?

Svech and Zykov only need to score 15 goals a piece. I think we’re okay there.  

 

As long as they arent still in the O zone when the play is in our end, we’re really good.

Edited by gocanes0506
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

Svech and Zykov only need to score 15 goals a piece. I think we’re okay there.  

 

As long as they arent still in the O zone when the play is in our end, we’re really good.

 

 

I've watched Zykov both on the tube with the Canes and in person with the Chex - your second sentence combined with what i've seen of him doesn't fill me with the confidence i feel it should.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Caniac514 said:

Svech: "It's a little faster game than the OHL. ... It's much faster and physical here. Not a lot of chances to score" - How you gonna play in NHL, buddy?

At least Svech went a point a game for the tournament, and has the size to play physically. He also got up to speed within three periods, with two assists in game one.

 

I still worry that the org is putting too much on Necas this season. One goal and one assist in four games in this tournament, after playing with men for a season? And that wide-open net he missed at the end of game two was not just a bad miss, it was a broad-side-of-a-barn miss.

 

This tourney may be glorified pond hockey, but that's exactly when elite offensive players should stand out. When you look at how other players in this thing chowed down, even allowing for the Canes' clearly overmatched D, Necas' failure to "dominate" (the org's word, not mine) is another reason to package Faulk with PDG and a prospect ASA-freakin'-P for a proven scorer.

Edited by top-shelf-1
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, realmdrakkar said:

 

 

I've watched Zykov both on the tube with the Canes and in person with the Chex - your second sentence combined with what i've seen of him doesn't fill me with the confidence i feel it should.

 

We are in same boat if both score 15 goals and dont play defense.  We are net positive if one or both or goals or defense is increased.  Zykov may or may not be a Skinner-lite. We'll find out.

 

Dougie>>Hanifin

This season's Faulk > Last season's Faulk

Zykov+Svech > or = Skinner

Ferland= Lindy

Necas=Ryan 

This season's Rask > Last season's Rask

This season's 4 line > = Last season's 4th line

 

What about Aho and Turbo???

 

I think we'll be okay even if Necas and Svech didnt look dominant in glorified pond hockey.  I bet some of the draft hangover that Necas mentioned from last year is still affecting Svech and Necas is getting used to NA ice.  We only need Necas to equal Ryan's scoring total and Zykov + Svech to equal Skinner from last year and we are net even.   There is a strong possibility that Z and Svech could get 40-50 goals between the 2. Necas has the talent and potential to be Ryan this season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

 

We are in same boat if both score 15 goals and dont play defense.  We are net positive if one or both or goals or defense is increased.  Zykov may or may not be a Skinner-lite. We'll find out.

 

Dougie>>Hanifin

This season's Faulk > Last season's Faulk

Zykov+Svech > or = Skinner

Ferland= Lindy

Necas=Ryan 

This season's Rask > Last season's Rask

This season's 4 line > = Last season's 4th line

 

What about Aho and Turbo???

 

I think we'll be okay even if Necas and Svech didnt look dominant in glorified pond hockey.  I bet some of the draft hangover that Necas mentioned from last year is still affecting Svech and Necas is getting used to NA ice.  We only need Necas to equal Ryan's scoring total and Zykov + Svech to equal Skinner from last year and we are net even.   There is a strong possibility that Z and Svech could get 40-50 goals between the 2. Necas has the talent and potential to be Ryan this season.

Your logic is sound as far as it goes: Relying on two boys to produce what two men used to. Plus, merely being equal to last season means no playoffs. And while I know you see Necas at center, I hope you're not holding your breath. 3C is Rask's job to lose IMO, and I don't see Necas at 4C, he's too small physically. My hope is that he gets time in the A, or at most sees third-line wing, and shares faceoffs with Rask, since they're oppositely handed.

 

To me, an acquisition that brings back a proven scorer is just a no-brainer. It takes the heat off two unproven kids, allowing them to adapt to NHL speed (Svech) and ice and physicality (Necas). This org has talked a lot about not overslotting guys, and has a golden opportunity right now to prove it's not lip service. The question is whether The Committee is too proud to admit Necas may not be ready. Nothing would make me happier than finding out that he is, but letting the season ride on that hope is foolishness when you've got ample assets to pick up some insurance. 

 

But the clock is ticking: That kind of deal becomes much harder to make (read: expensive) once the season begins and potential trading partners see that you're doing it out of desperation. Dealing now avoids desperation mode, deepens the bench, and gives our rookies time to "get there." 

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Projecting goals is at best inexact, and yet management needs to do it. My method for attempting it is to take the top 9 forwards from last year, add up the goals, and try to project goals for the top 9 this year. Then try some rough estimate for D and the 4th line. And it will be off by alot, especially for specific players. 

 

What we do know is that we are most likely going to need at least 20 more goals than last year. Yes, a couple of teams slipped in with less, and our D looks good, but teams that slip in with fewer than typical goals for almost always have a really good goalie.

 

If we put Aho at 30, TT steady, JWilly up 3 to 19, Svech at 20, Staal at 20, Ferland at 15 (closer to his norm), Necas 15, Rask 15, McGinn 16, that equals one more goal than the top 9 last year. While Hamilton has high upside, his more average is 14 or so goals, and last year Hanifin had 10, so that's only gaining 4 goals. Faulk? If here, and if he sees PP time he should be good for at least 5 more goals (and maybe give up less in protected time). The 4th line, should do better, but very hard to predict more than 6 more goals.

 

So all of that ends up with around 15 more goals than last year, which is close to the 20 we need, but just short. 

 

This is why a guy who can pump in a proven 20 goals would just put us over. The thing is that we actually got fairly decent scoring 9-12. With those guys averaging 15 goals each. So replacing with a 20G player would only increase things by 5 goals.

 

Still, if a couple of guys over-perform, this group could get us there. Svech, Ferland, Necas, Rask, Zykov and ironically Faulk, could all be candidates, or an unforeseen guy, like, oh, Foegele, might pump in 20. This is always impossible to predict, and the final piece that could work for us, is just a better system for creating actual chances as well as removing the one way players. 

 

Obviously, I'd feel better if we had an NHL vet forward with a long history of 20 goals would really help. If not, I keep thinking of Brind'amour's line: it'll either be very good, or very bad. One can see it going either way. I still choose to think positive at least through camp and pre-season, to see the Necas' and Svech's, Zkov's, Ferland's, Foegeles actually in play. Another wild card, mentioned by others is Rask. If he can get back to 20 goals form, that's the final 5 goals in my model.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...