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gocanes0506

In-Season 2018-2019

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4 hours ago, Canes06cup17 said:

I’m not used to wanting the Penguins to win. Lol

Welcome to the Darkside...We have cookies!!! :starwars:

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Some seemingly random thoughts.

 

--Canes are currently the number 11 team in the NHL in points percentage. In a distant, almost abstract way, the top 18 teams are the "playoff" caliber teams. Of course the East is a Beast this year, and that's the real story, but this team has climbed into being the #11 overall team for the entire season, which is really pretty impressive given where things were.

 

--But while total season stats do tell the tale of the total season, they can miss very powerful trends that at some point become a better predictor of how good a team is now or has become. It is well known here that since that win vs Philly on December 31, this team has found another level and has been one of the top teams in the league since then. That's almost 30 games with all situations. 

 

--One of the things that jumped out at me looking at the standings after not doing so for a couple of weeks is this team's goal differential: +19 for the year. I can't remember the last time we were that positive. Goal differential is a pretty decent indicator of how good a team is. And not even counting trends, (get to that in a second), our +19 is well ahead of MTL and Columbus at +4 and +7. Smart money would be on the +19 team. But the trends are much better.

 

--Since that pivot point December 31, we are +34. That is how good we've been since then. Fun with math: if we had been playing this way since Day 1, we'd be +77 right now, close to Tampa and better than anyone else in the NHL. I'm not saying we're that good. But we are better now than the year-long stats, so our current team's "goodness" is somewhere between the +19 we have and the theoretical +77 that this 29 game stretch expands to. That makes us legit no matter what number you pick.

 

--Our team goaltending is currently tied for #13. That may not seem that great, but for this team it is epic. And again, the trend is our friend. McE has been steady-stellar and is #10 in the NHL at .921. But Mrazek has been gaining, now above .900 at .904. He was sub .900 for much of the first part of the season, so he has probably been close to .910 recently. 

 

--Nino for Rask. Really? That was an obvious steal from the moment it was announced, especially since we were probably at least discussing a trade for hockey pucks or maybe even a buyout for Rask. And Nino was a player that some of this board wanted us to draft high and even later to trade a big piece for. But this is entirely something else. At the moment this steal makes Skinner for Pu go down a lot easier:

 

Nino with Canes: .95 ppg, 38 goal pace. 

Rask with Minn: .10 ppg, 8 goal pace.       Yes, he's been injured, but unlike Lindholm, I'd be shocked if Rask is ever more than a useable 3rd center.

 

--Speaking of steals. Certainly one of Francis' finest moves:  2016: Canes get Teuvo Terravainen and Brian Bickell for.....Artur Kayumov, and Evan Barratt. (That's who the picks ended up being). TT is now tied for #40 forward in the NHL in points with a very skillful .92 ppg.

 

--Teams need skill to win. We've been short a superstar. Not anymore. SeaBass now at 1.14 ppg (same as Panarin), is tied for the #15 most productive forwards in the NHL. That is rarified air. Just above and below him: Tavaras, Panarin, Scheifele, Ovechkin, Stamkos.

 

--Justin Faulk is +10 on the year, and #4 on the team (with 40 games). That is all on that. 

 

--If the new Dougie is the one we're going to have, then I can live with watching Lindholm break out.

 

--J Willy. I think of him and DeHaan as the kind of mid-range, just under the big gun UFA pick ups that have been big for us. J Willy .65 ppg and 24 goal pace with 19 in the bank, at 37 years old. And that doesn't even talk about his amazing leadership role this year. Maybe he is back here next year....

 

Anything can happen, and if the team starts to lose it's mojo, it might. But as it sits we only have to beat out one of MTL and Columbus and both of them seem really shaky right now while our trends are insanely positive. Island territory for those who know what I mean by that. 

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4 minutes ago, remkin said:

Maybe he is back here next year....

He better be...he still has gas in the tank and his veteran leadership is priceless

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5 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

He better be...he still has gas in the tank and his veteran leadership is priceless

Yeah, I had just thought "age has to kick in by 39". And needing space for the young up and coming guns and a potential offseason D for O move, and just sort of thought he's age out. But then I think about two ex Canes of his era: Ray Whitney and Matt Cullen, who had plenty to give pushing 40. And Willy's production being sooo consistent even ticking up this year, and I think: "what was I thinking?" And that's even before the leadership issue. 

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21 hours ago, PenaltyKiller17 said:

He said he felt Columbus made too many changes, and he feels like it’s affecting the product on the ice.  I think he thinks they’re the most vulnerable team.

I think both Les Habs and CBJ could miss. Montreal has gotten nearly as good at collapsing in recent years as we did at not having a prayer by the time Christmas rolled around for a few years there. They've missed both of the last two and three of the last four seasons.

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1 hour ago, AWACSooner said:

He better be...he still has gas in the tank and his veteran leadership is priceless

I think it's a matter of how far we get. If the highly improbable were to happen this year, I think he'd take a final bow. If not, it'll be interesting to see if he opts to keep rolling or to call it a wrap. 

Edited by top-shelf-1
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5 hours ago, remkin said:

That makes us legit no matter what number you pick.

 

 

5 hours ago, remkin said:

But as it sits we only have to beat out one of MTL and Columbus and both of them seem really shaky right now while our trends are insanely positive. Island territory for those who know what I mean by that. 

Great trends Remkin, not random at all but all on coachpoint. The goal diff has been jumping out at me all along moving at a +34 pace. That's even more telling, I think, when you consider a B2B 4 goal loss to NYR and 3 goal loss to OTT in january. The trends to me all say the same thing, in fact I'm thinking PHI may be more threatening than CBJ at this point even with 7 more points to make up. I see us as the #3 team based on trending, yet the two games with Pitt will likely decide that. The good thing about this playoff push is having at least 1 game with everyone fighting with you. Whoever ultimately deserves it,, will get it.

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1 hour ago, 2ndsacker said:

I'm thinking PHI may be more threatening than CBJ at this point even with 7 more points to make up. 

I agree (even though I bade them sayonara earlier in this thread). I think the wheels have totally come off in Columbus and that Montreal is running on four bald tires.

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13 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I agree (even though I bade them sayonara earlier in this thread). I think the wheels have totally come off in Columbus and that Montreal is running on four bald tires.

Habs lose 8-2.  Pretty bald.

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2 hours ago, wxray1 said:

Habs lose 8-2.  Pretty bald.

And that was to the team with the 3rd worst record in the league. Then again, it wouldn’t have mattered who we played last night. We’d have gotten embarrassed. They better come out angry tonight and get their mojo back.

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All I’m gonna say is that I’m gonna be really urinated if that Boston loss was the beginning of the end...

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Good to see someone else agrees with me on Necas:

 

From ESPN:

 

Martin Necas. The center is ranked No. 4 on Chris Peters' list of the top NHL prospects, and expectations are he could be a No. 1 center for the Hurricanes in the very near future.

 

Thinking about how good Svech is going to be the future is just looking so bright.  Add in this about D prospect Jake Bean from the Checker's website:

 

With his seventh multi-point game of the season on Saturday, Jake Bean continues to put together an outstanding first pro season. Having already set franchise records for most goals, assists and points by a rookie, Bean is now zeroing in on more spots in the record book. His 35 points are the 10th most by any rookie in team history and his 24 assists are the sixth most, while his 11 goals are tied for the second most in a single season by a blue liner, trailing only Mark Flood’s 13-goal campaign in 2013-14.

 

I guess it should go in the In the System area, but after last night, thought we could use the optimism here.

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we need 16 points over the last 14 games.
 
Over the next week
Capitals- Jets, @Pit,@PHI, @ TB.  Want WAS to lose all the games except the Pit game. Hope they win in regulation.
Isles- BJs, Montreal, @ Red Wings B2B Wild.  I want them to lose so we can catch them but, I also want them to beat the BJs. 
Canes- @COL, @BJs, B2B Buffalo. WIN THEM ALL!!!!
Pitt- BOS, Caps, @Sabres, STL B2B Flyers.  LOSE THEM ALL!!
BJs- @NYIs B2B BOS, CAR B2B @BOS.  2 B2Bs this week and Boston twice this week, rough week. LOSE THEM ALL!!!!
Montreal- Red Wings, @Isles, Chi.  Lose two and beat the Isles.
Edited by gocanes0506
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The WEEK of FISHING or CUTTING BAIT. Just maybe the deciding stretch for all concerned, or at least the one that lines up the dominoes of games that become "MUST HAVES"

Canes have COL, CBJ, BUFF, then Pitt. NOT our toughest by any means.

Pitt has BOS, WASH, BUF, STL. Then us.Tougher stretch than ours.

CBJ have NYI, BOS, CAR, BOS. That's NOT pretty. And 1 more after that with BOS. Ouch.

MTL has DET, NYI, CHI. Then PHI. MEH, but they're not exactly rolling either. 

 

Nothing sets in stone in this league, but I would qualify it as a week that we COULD create enough separation on 1 of them to keep us all from heart attacks in the last 10.

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Playoff runs are not for the faint at heart.

 

The fact that there are 4 teams going for 3 slots works in our favor.  I know it seems like we will need more than 95 points but it is just incredibly unlikely that will be the case, i.e. less than 12%.

 

Sure, get 97 points, but we won't need that many, it is actually far more likely that only 93 is needed than 97.  (see: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html ) 

 

We just got 3 points off of 3 teams that are mentioned as in the conference finals every time they are talked about.  That is pretty durn good, even with that Winterpeg stinker.  Our story is so much brighter than the Montreal or CLB story right now, just decide which position you would rather be in... 

 

Just as example.  Montreal has no magic beans, +10 with 13 games left, need to go +3 (8-5) over their last 13 to get to +13 (95 points), they have lost 2 straight and are 5-5 over their last 10 needing to be 3 over .500 for their last 13 games.

 

Sure they could do it, but will 4 teams all do it?  Canes need to go 7-7 to get 95, they are already +13.  Anything could happen, but it is just not likely that all 4 teams play great, especially with what we have seen recently.  It is also just as likely if that happens that someone above the Canes falters down the stretch, the Isle certainly look shaky lately.  So many ways to get in, just keep playing hard.  I like our chances any time we play hard like last night.

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Forgetting about Winnipeg, this team seems to have been more productive when it plays often than coming off 3 or 4 idle days. And we have beaten a lot of very good teams over the past 2 months. So playing often this month may work to our favor. I know our streak started a bit before the trade, but I think we are a completely different team since we got Nino. Not only has his production been incredible, he allowed us to split Aho from TT and Ferland, giving us 2 legitimate scoring lines. 

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Just now, bluedevilcane said:

Forgetting about Winnipeg, this team seems to have been more productive when it plays often than coming off 3 or 4 idle days. And we have beaten a lot of very good teams over the past 2 months. So playing often this month may work to our favor. I know our streak started a bit before the trade, but I think we are a completely different team since we got Nino. Not only has his production been incredible, he allowed us to split Aho from TT and Ferland, giving us 2 legitimate scoring lines. 

To further your point, I think we have the personnel now to make the line blender work when change-ups are needed. That alone will pay dividends if/when we get deep into playoff runs.

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6 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

Forgetting about Winnipeg, this team seems to have been more productive when it plays often than coming off 3 or 4 idle days. And we have beaten a lot of very good teams over the past 2 months. So playing often this month may work to our favor. I know our streak started a bit before the trade, but I think we are a completely different team since we got Nino. Not only has his production been incredible, he allowed us to split Aho from TT and Ferland, giving us 2 legitimate scoring lines. 

 

I keep reading some chatter that said these last games are brutal.  I got to go with why? Counting that Winnipeg implosion we're 22-7-2 since New Years Eve.  This includes wins vs. Philly (X2), Pittsburgh (in Pitt; a shutout for that matter); Dallas (X2); first time we've swept them ever in a two game season series (both shutout wins). Nashville (X2), Vegas, and St. Louis (hottest team in the league at the time).  All of these teams are playoff teams right now.  EVERY one of them and we beat them all; home or on road it does not matter.  We're 10-4 at home during this streak and 12-3-2 on the road (includes last night).  We also squeaked out a point vs Boston in Boston (that hasn't been easy to do lately)

 

Yeah, we also lost games vs Ottawa and NJ and the Rangers (teams out of the race) but this just shows you that any team can beat anyone on any given night.  It doesn't matter how hard the schedule is.  What matters is how you play the game on the ice.  Obviously the Hurricanes have proved during the streak that if they show up ready to play they'll win.  Friday they DID not show up.  Yesterday they were back and look what happened; we beat a top tier playoff team IN THEIR BUILDING.  

 

They keep playing this way they'll get in and maybe even go far.

 

Those are my thoughts. 

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53 minutes ago, Sportsfan-1-2 said:

 

I keep reading some chatter that said these last games are brutal.  I got to go with why? Counting that Winnipeg implosion we're 22-7-2 since New Years Eve.  This includes wins vs. Philly (X2), Pittsburgh (in Pitt; a shutout for that matter); Dallas (X2); first time we've swept them ever in a two game season series (both shutout wins). Nashville (X2), Vegas, and St. Louis (hottest team in the league at the time).  All of these teams are playoff teams right now.  EVERY one of them and we beat them all; home or on road it does not matter.  We're 10-4 at home during this streak and 12-3-2 on the road (includes last night).  We also squeaked out a point vs Boston in Boston (that hasn't been easy to do lately)

 

Yeah, we also lost games vs Ottawa and NJ and the Rangers (teams out of the race) but this just shows you that any team can beat anyone on any given night.  It doesn't matter how hard the schedule is.  What matters is how you play the game on the ice.  Obviously the Hurricanes have proved during the streak that if they show up ready to play they'll win.  Friday they DID not show up.  Yesterday they were back and look what happened; we beat a top tier playoff team IN THEIR BUILDING.  

 

They keep playing this way they'll get in and maybe even go far.

 

Those are my thoughts. 

 

 

2995357.jpg

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Yeah, the simple fact for me is that this team has answered nearly every test since December 31. This was the last one I need to see. This team is for real and it really doesn't matter what other teams do because they have been a legit top 5 team for about 30 consecutive games including all of the tests mentioned by Sportsfan in his post, and more. They will not let down enough that other teams will matter.

 

I know is it so hard to believe since we've been burned for so long by so many Canes teams, but this team is different. The Island is fully open. I'm sold on it.

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2 hours ago, Sportsfan-1-2 said:

 

I keep reading some chatter that said these last games are brutal.  I got to go with why?

Agreed that we have been great since January.  I think we should make the playoffs if we continue our play since that time. If  you think Pens twice, Caps twice, Toronto, Tampa are not very tough games I have to ask why?  I still consider them brutal as needing 14 pts down the stretch is no easy task. Let's not forget our teams prior history of not winning games against lesser teams i.e, Rangers,Devils.Senators,Red Wings. The Flyers/Devils/Sabres aren't going to lie down and would love to stop our climb into the playoffs. Should we get in? Yes, just not a given. 

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1 hour ago, slapshot02 said:

Agreed that we have been great since January.  I think we should make the playoffs if we continue our play since that time. If  you think Pens twice, Caps twice, Toronto, Tampa are not very tough games I have to ask why?  I still consider them brutal as needing 14 pts down the stretch is no easy task. Let's not forget our teams prior history of not winning games against lesser teams i.e, Rangers,Devils.Senators,Red Wings. The Flyers/Devils/Sabres aren't going to lie down and would love to stop our climb into the playoffs. Should we get in? Yes, just not a given. 

No prisoners. Kick donkey. Just win baby.

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