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gocanes0506

In-Season 2018-2019

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2 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

I will agree that we are going through another rebuild.of sorts.

 

we are one top 6 center(because Necas will open as a winger) and goalie situation away from being good. Our 3-4 lines are set for a long time.  

 

SAT

Nino-???-Necas 

Martinook-Staal-Foegele/McGinn 

Maenalenan-Wallmark-Saarela/Gauthier

 

 

Salt&Pepper

de Haan-Hamilton/Faulk

Fleury-TVR/Fox

 

pretty solid lineup depending on who the new center is.  

 

Interesting battles- Maenalenan, Bishop, and about every other Checker for the two 4th line winger spots.

 

 

 

I agree we need another top 6 guy but not convinced Necas will remain on the second  line. He may start there but a complete season? Dont think our 3-4 lines are set for a long time either. To much youth for those 6 slots. Goalie required as well. 2 or three forwards and a goalie away from being very competitive.

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4 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

I will agree that we are going through another rebuild.of sorts.

 

we are one top 6 center(because Necas will open as a winger) and goalie situation away from being good. Our 3-4 lines are set for a long time.  

 

SAT

Nino-???-Necas 

Martinook-Staal-Foegele/McGinn 

Maenalenan-Wallmark-Saarela/Gauthier

 

Salt&Pepper

de Haan-Hamilton/Faulk

Fleury-TVR/Fox

 

pretty solid lineup depending on who the new center is.  

 

Interesting battles- Maenalenan, Bishop, and about every other Checker for the two 4th line winger spots.

 

 

Given his play over the last year and a half I'm not ready to pencil in NN as a 2nd line wing I want to depend on (at least not at the level I think we should be at).  Many Wild fans who've been watching him regularly were surprisingly ok with losing him, even for a return as paltry as Rask.  Don't get me wrong, I love the trade, and NN could get back to that level, but I'm hoping the Committee isn't depending on it and will bring in 2 more legit top 6 forwards before the start of next season.  That way there's insurance if NN doesn't get back up to that level of play or if Necas takes a season or so to get to the level we expect he'll eventually attain.   

 

edit: much of what Danimal was referring to in a post he made yesterday:

________________________________________________________________________________________________

On 1/18/2019 at 12:07 AM, Danimal38 said:

Im just holding off on being too excited.  His numbers last two seasons are eh.  We have continually taken on players who were good for a few years, than not so good for a couple and hoped the change of scenery is the answer.   Works out one out of 10 times. This is Not the trade that makes us a contender but a piece that could help if we get another big piece.  I mean Skinner made about the same salary as this guy and scored 24 goals and was conaidered a failure last season.  Now we are so excited about a 15-20 goal guy for same amount.  Cool, hope our third  line trade works out this time. Not to exciting in my book. Another eh for an eh trade. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edited by LakeLivin

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We aren’t going to Toronto level of 1st and 2nd lines so Nino is a solid 2nd line winger for us.

 

Nino should get back to his heavy game. With some decent linemates get to 20-25 and 45.  

 

Danimal’s argument doesn’t hold water. Skinner wasn’t graded as on success based off on salary and goals, frankly he scored plenty for the salary.  He was graded for much different things. Skinner is making 600k more than Nino. 

 

Whether we bring in one or two top 6 forwards will depend on how high in the 70s we go.  We could go 2 knowing that Nino’s salary will come off when Necas will need to be paid.  Although I would expect only one would be longer than 2 years.  We’ll need to free up money for Svech.

 

I doubt we go two though with having to buy out Darling and get a starter locked up.

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48 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

We aren’t going to Toronto level of 1st and 2nd lines so Nino is a solid 2nd line winger for us.

 

Nino should get back to his heavy game. With some decent linemates get to 20-25 and 45.  

 

Danimal’s argument doesn’t hold water. Skinner wasn’t graded as on success based off on salary and goals, frankly he scored plenty for the salary.  He was graded for much different things. Skinner is making 600k more than Nino. 

 

Whether we bring in one or two top 6 forwards will depend on how high in the 70s we go.  We could go 2 knowing that Nino’s salary will come off when Necas will need to be paid.  Although I would expect only one would be longer than 2 years.  We’ll need to free up money for Svech.

 

I doubt we go two though with having to buy out Darling and get a starter locked up.

 

When I said I agreed with much of what Danimal said I wasn't referring to the Skinner part (maybe I should have specified that).  I was referring to the part about depending on a guy who has had some past success but is currently in the midst of a not-short period of disappointing play (the past season and a half).  In his previous 5 seasons, there was only one where Nino scored more than 43 points and his career best was 25 goals.  Sure, NN could revert to his '16-17 form and be a reliable top 6 forward for us going forward.  I'm just not comfortable in depending on that.  We have enough assets to give me hope that the committee will build in a bit more offensive "cushion" than just NN and a second line center before the start of next season.

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From my point of view, things are exactly the same.  I constantly see this team go on a run and then blow it against teams they should beat.  Not sure why.  But if anything has been consistent the last 10 years it is this.

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4 hours ago, bluedevil58 said:

From my point of view, things are exactly the same.  I constantly see this team go on a run and then blow it against teams they should beat.  Not sure why.  But if anything has been consistent the last 10 years it is this.

 

I really love to disagree with you on these boards, but it this case, I got nothing.

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20 hours ago, bluedevil58 said:

From my point of view, things are exactly the same.  I constantly see this team go on a run and then blow it against teams they should beat.  Not sure why.  But if anything has been consistent the last 10 years it is this.

I fully agree and think we dont vets. I think the young guys have a few good games and get full of themselves. Hopefully NN helps with that. I still think they need one more solid vocal leader to prevent the lapse in fight we see

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A look at goalie ranking based on Save percentage expected saves.  Minus isnt good because you are saving less than expected. The Cams lead the NHL in worst goalie for this stat (minimum 18 games played).  I originally saw this with a minimum of 20 games played and Mrazek was bottom 15  I moved it down to 18, so McE could be included.  McE is in the top 10 for this metric.  Both Islanders' goalies are 1 and 2.  Awesome defense, no screens, or they are playing out of their mind this year (or all three). 

 

For those that want to know: Darling was last in this stat last season and Cam was 10th worst.  

 

Goalie Games Played Save % on Unblocked Shots xSave % on Unblocked Shots Save % Above Expected Rebounds Per Save xRebounds Per Save Rebounds Above Expected
Chicago Blackhawks Cam Ward
20 93.17% 94.54% -1.372% 5.11% 4.12% 0.991%
Edmonton Oilers Cam Talbot
27 94.19% 95.27% -1.076% 4.49% 3.7% 0.792%
Florida Panthers Roberto Luongo
25 94.5% 95.46% -0.958% 4.16% 3.75% 0.407%
Colorado Avalanche Philipp Grubauer
20 94.24% 95.19% -0.944% 4.66% 3.92% 0.742%
Florida Panthers James Reimer
27 94.04% 94.92% -0.884% 4.4% 3.75% 0.651%
St. Louis Blues Jake Allen
36 94.48% 95.3% -0.817% 3.48% 3.81% -0.334%
Detroit Red Wings Jonathan Bernier
20 93.92% 94.73% -0.813% 4.35% 3.98% 0.363%
Calgary Flames Mike Smith
25 93.9% 94.71% -0.81% 4.57% 3.96% 0.617%
San Jose Sharks Martin Jones
37 94.44% 95.21% -0.761% 5.43% 3.94% 1.49%
Columbus Blue Jackets Joonas Korpisalo
19 94.56% 95.31% -0.755% 5.39% 3.46% 1.925%
Chicago Blackhawks Corey Crawford
23 94.16% 94.83% -0.67% 4.57% 4.39% 0.182%
New Jersey Devils Keith Kinkaid
34 94.54% 95.12% -0.574% 4.31% 3.72% 0.6%
New York Rangers Henrik Lundqvist
35 95.1% 95.64% -0.536% 4.01% 3.62% 0.394%
Tampa Bay Lightning Louis Domingue
20 94.55% 95.05% -0.503% 4.61% 4.03% 0.584%
Ottawa Senators Craig Anderson
32 94.91% 95.41% -0.5% 4.11% 3.74% 0.372%
Carolina Hurricanes Petr Mrazek
22 94.5% 94.93% -0.423% 3.15% 3.83% -0.68%
Buffalo Sabres Linus Ullmark
19 94.94% 95.31% -0.372% 3.55% 3.95% -0.397%
Minnesota Wild Devan Dubnyk
40 95.51% 95.84% -0.335% 3.65% 3.7% -0.058%
Arizona Coyotes Darcy Kuemper
25 95.33% 95.65% -0.321% 4.09% 3.69% 0.399%
Columbus Blue Jackets Sergei Bobrovsky
34 94.75% 94.97% -0.22% 5% 3.89% 1.114%
Nashville Predators Juuse Saros
20 95% 95.16% -0.164% 3.78% 3.86% -0.087%
Colorado Avalanche Semyon Varlamov
31 95.13% 95.27% -0.147% 5.43% 3.79% 1.64%
Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck
37 95.08% 95.2% -0.121% 4.27% 3.84% 0.43%
Vancouver Canucks Jacob Markstrom
36 95.17% 95.28% -0.108% 4.02% 3.73% 0.285%
Edmonton Oilers Mikko Koskinen
27 95% 95.08% -0.086% 4.05% 3.91% 0.136%
Montreal Canadiens Carey Price
37 95.24% 95.3% -0.063% 3.48% 3.79% -0.31%
Pittsburgh Penguins Casey DeSmith
28 95.35% 95.4% -0.048% 5.31% 3.84% 1.468%
Vegas Golden Knights Marc-Andre Fleury
44 95.16% 95.18% -0.021% 4.4% 3.87% 0.532%
Ottawa Senators Anders Nilsson
19 95.22% 95.24% -0.019% 3.64% 3.64% 0.002%
Washington Capitals Pheonix Copley
19 94.92% 94.93% -0.015% 4.84% 3.95% 0.891%
Pittsburgh Penguins Matt Murray
22 95.34% 95.34% 0.002% 3.23% 3.67% -0.438%
Dallas Stars Ben Bishop
31 95.83% 95.81% 0.024% 2.6% 3.59% -0.997%
Los Angeles Kings Jonathan Quick
24 94.8% 94.75% 0.051% 5.72% 3.77% 1.947%
Buffalo Sabres Carter Hutton
31 95.06% 94.98% 0.079% 2.91% 4.02% -1.105%
Boston Bruins Jaroslav Halak
26 95.45% 95.25% 0.207% 4.45% 3.95% 0.496%
Boston Bruins Tuukka Rask
26 95.49% 95.22% 0.261% 2.99% 3.86% -0.862%
Washington Capitals Braden Holtby
33 95.13% 94.83% 0.303% 5.74% 3.97% 1.77%
Carolina Hurricanes Curtis McElhinney
18 95.42% 95.1% 0.322% 4.91% 3.78% 1.127%
Tampa Bay Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy
28 95.77% 95.45% 0.327% 3.85% 3.68% 0.168%
Detroit Red Wings Jimmy Howard
33 95.25% 94.88% 0.369% 3.97% 4.15% -0.178%
Nashville Predators Pekka Rinne
36 95.34% 94.94% 0.4% 2.94% 3.69% -0.747%
Calgary Flames David Rittich
29 95.41% 94.99% 0.427% 5.03% 3.9% 1.125%
Dallas Stars Anton Khudobin
21 95.95% 95.52% 0.434% 3.47% 3.74% -0.276%
Toronto Maple Leafs Frederik Andersen
33 95.74% 95.24% 0.505% 4.08% 3.98% 0.098%
Anaheim Ducks John Gibson
42 95.68% 95.16% 0.52% 5.67% 4.04% 1.633%
New York Islanders Thomas Greiss
26 95.7% 95.13% 0.572% 4.26% 3.84% 0.418%
New York Islanders Robin Lehner
26 96.39% 95.75% 0.646% 3.52% 3.64% -0.125%
Edited by gocanes0506

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Intersting stuff gocanes. I remain unsold on Mrazek for next year entirely. McE is only an age thing, otherwise I'd take him back in a heartbeat. Despite all of the justified attention on the needed D for O trade, it seems pretty likely we're going to need to spin the wheel on a starting goalie again this off season.

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2 minutes ago, remkin said:

Intersting stuff gocanes. I remain unsold on Mrazek for next year entirely. McE is only an age thing, otherwise I'd take him back in a heartbeat. Despite all of the justified attention on the needed D for O trade, it seems pretty likely we're going to need to spin the wheel on a starting goalie again this off season.

At least we went from last and 10th worst to 10th best and 16th worst. Its an improvement.  

 

Is it scheme or players?  Unsure.  Our goalies are keeping us in games much more than last season.

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I know save percentage is not everything, but Mrazek is at .895 while McE is at .914. Just hard to fathom a good goaltender at sub .900 for me.

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32 minutes ago, remkin said:

I know save percentage is not everything, but Mrazek is at .895 while McE is at .914. Just hard to fathom a good goaltender at sub .900 for me.

 

That's because both of our goalies are not starters.   The D is the only thing preventing then from being blown away on a consistent basis.

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5 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

A look at goalie ranking based on Save percentage expected saves.  Minus isnt good because you are saving less than expected. The Cams lead the NHL in worst goalie for this stat (minimum 18 games played).  I originally saw this with a minimum of 20 games played and Mrazek was bottom 15  I moved it down to 18, so McE could be included.  McE is in the top 10 for this metric.  Both Islanders' goalies are 1 and 2.  Awesome defense, no screens, or they are playing out of their mind this year (or all three). 

 

For those that want to know: Darling was last in this stat last season and Cam was 10th worst. 

 

What is REALLY clear to me from this chart is that it is not a good idea to be named "Cam" if you are a goalie.

 

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1 hour ago, bluedevil58 said:

 

That's because both of our goalies are not starters.   The D is the only thing preventing then from being blown away on a consistent basis.

Neither are top line starters but both have made very timely saves when needed, something Cam and Darling failed to do time and again last year. So while these 2 are not long term solutions both have made plays when needed.

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1 hour ago, Derailed75 said:

Neither are top line starters but both have made very timely saves when needed, something Cam and Darling failed to do time and again last year. So while these 2 are not long term solutions both have made plays when needed.

Shhh...Debbie Downer is on a roll 

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TD talks on the radio

 

It is about 7 minutes long. 

 

The biggest takeaway from the whole interview was in reference to the increase number of fans during our winning streak 'a comment from a player we just signed and from an agent we are trying to sign was how much more fun it is to play in the building right now.'  A little bit of paraphrasing there.  In the end talking about fan excitement being recognized by the players and them signing here.

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Every year it seems there is a team below the line through the midpoint that rises to push someone out with more steady play down the stretch. Youth, injuries, coaches learning curve, and the gelling and consistency of lines taking half a season + to warrant a climb up and into the conversation. Canes have put themselves into a position to fall into that role, but the IFS(lots of them) are all over the board. I see a team that has basically performed well enough against the top half without consistent results, while trotting out mediocrity against teams we would expect better results against. The "without consistent results" can many nights against the better teams be attributed to short lapses(15 seconds of OT, back to back late penalties in TB), games we sort of controlled, and not attributed to not being able to compete with the league's best. Some team makes a late season run, no reason we can't be considered the team capable(only capable) of doing it this year. We've definitely improved over Nov/Dec since the holiday break, have trended up(and that with injuries to #1 face off guy, Concussion to our tough guy), yet have still yet to peak. There's probably left for a few teams inside the line a huge down trend yet also, and it's no secret that even very good teams crash and burn occasionally(Anaheim 12 straight and only 1 point out, Wash now 6 straight), and when we look at 2 points tonight leaving only 6 points between us and second in the metro, I just see that as a positive January. 32 games after the break, and you'll need about 40/42 points to have a shot. Then again in the competitive metro, 36/38 could end up enough. NOT FORECASTING, not even expecting, just saying, if they clean up the lapses, details, and stupid penalties, it's doable and if they did, there would be no reason to think they couldn't make a series of it against anybody. One of the only reasons I say this is that we have goaltending that can win and steal games, unlike all the years we didn't have. The underachieving thus far is customary. The rising up and grabbing something isn't for this franchise, but from my lazy boy, it wouldn't be undeserved either.

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