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gocanes0506

In-Season 2018-2019

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17 minutes ago, remkin said:

 

The one thing that has been fairly constant with this group is that they are far better off playing than sitting. Back to back, 3rd in 4, on a West coast travel nightmare? No problem. Give them 3 days off though....not as good. 

 

It could all change, but up to now, I'm better with them playing than resting. I'm more worried about this break than the cluster of games coming up. Heck they even seem to have figured out how to win on the road.

Also with those tough stretches coming up, they have played much better against the top teams then bottom feeders. Took Tampa to the end with a lead and loss in OT to the Flames both on the road and then fall flat against the Rangers and Senators

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1 minute ago, Derailed75 said:

Also with those tough stretches coming up, they have played much better against the top teams then bottom feeders. Took Tampa to the end with a lead and loss in OT to the Flames both on the road and then fall flat against the Rangers and Senators

Yeah true. They don't seem to care who they play, or lately even where. They just seem to do better playing than resting too much.

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8 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

while I'll agree with your assessment we play 9 games in the first 16 days of February.  That includes a 4 in 6 days AND a B2B. We have one 2 day break in the first 16 days.    Then 4 in the final 12 days.  

The trend can change. The old saying the trend is your friend....until it isn't. And at some point it could just be too much to ask, but I have just been amazed how unfazed these guys seem to be with playing a lot of games in a short stretch vs how off they seem after 3 or more rest days.

 

The main problem with the breaks last year was the asymmetry with teams trying to shake of the rust against teams that had been playing. At least we wont' have that as Vegas is also coming off a break. 

 

All of that said, we need to stay hot off the break and get through that 5 game road trip. If we get through that a few points out, it would start looking good.

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1 hour ago, AWACSooner said:

Yah, I know...which is probably the last thing Washington needs in the midst of their awesome losing streak!

Honestly, 1 game is too light...should be 4-5.  You’re the best of the best and the fans want to see you.

NHL needs to change format. If team from Eastern conf wins ASG then team from East will have home advantage in SC final and vice versa.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

And now that the Canes are kicking hinder, the 8 day break is that much of a bummer. Oh well. 

Does teams have practice during this span? If yes then it might be a good time to pull a trade to give new guy more time to adjust to new system and teammates.

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20 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

Does teams have practice during this span? If yes then it might be a good time to pull a trade to give new guy more time to adjust to new system and teammates.

No.   Many players use the time to take a vacation to a warm place.

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40 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

Does teams have practice during this span? If yes then it might be a good time to pull a trade to give new guy more time to adjust to new system and teammates.

 

Teams can't practice, players getting a week off mid season was something negotiated during the last collective bargaining agreement.

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1 hour ago, Bonivan said:

NHL needs to change format. If team from Eastern conf wins ASG then team from East will have home advantage in SC final and vice versa.

Just no. ASG is a showcase. Nothing more

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So, while we all were a bit disheartened by the losses at MSG and especially to Ottawa at home, this fairly amazing road trip really caps off a very solid 13 game run that has at least put us in contention. Starting with the New Year's eve win vs. Philly and ending with last night's historic win in Vancouver some things about the most recent 13 games:

 

Record: 9-3-1.  73.1% of available points won. 120 point pace if a team keep that up all year. 

 

8/13 games on the road, including West Coast trip. 

2/4 losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the NHL on the road and very much in both games. 

3.77 goals per game.

Wins: 4.8 goals per game/ Losses: 1.5 goals per game.

 

This team is feeling it, and I just hope that the break doesn't stop the music, but this has been a really nice run.

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Looking at the standings in the East I maintain that there are only 2 teams still in the race that are not currently in a playoff spot:

 

Carolina and Buffalo (how ironic we gave them Skinner, but I digress).

 

The next closest team is the NYR. They are 3 points behind us adjusted for magic beans, so technically they are in it, but they are 9 points out. They also have a -25 goal differential, are actively planning not to make it this year (they plan to pick high, then sign a mega UFA and be right back next year from what I hear). They are 4-6-0 in their last 10.

 

After NYR, Florida is10 out. -18, and 3-5-2 last 10. 

 

Technically NYR or Florida COULD make a run, but they seem very unlikely to. Detroit, Philly, NJ and Ottawa have no chance. 

 

This matters because one of the reasons teams more than 10 points out almost never make it: too many teams to jump. We have two teams to jump.

 

Buffalo has Eichel back and could surely heat up. BUT they have cooled down, and is Skinner really going to stay that hot? We are tied with them, but they have two beans. They are 3-6-1 in their last 10. They seem to be trending down, but the break might help them. 

 

Then who do we slip past that is in a spot? Amazingly Pittsburgh and Boston are right ahead in the WC slots, both have beans on us though. Either could fall, but both maintain healthy goal diffs making them seem stronger. 

 

IMO the path is through MTL or Columbus. If we keep on it, and Buffalo falls, one of those two dropping back could open the door. But it's massive guess work. Just about any team could fall. The key will be for us to keep at it.

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30 minutes ago, remkin said:

Looking at the standings in the East I maintain that there are only 2 teams still in the race that are not currently in a playoff spot:

 

Carolina and Buffalo (how ironic we gave them Skinner, but I digress).

 

The next closest team is the NYR. They are 3 points behind us adjusted for magic beans, so technically they are in it, but they are 9 points out. They also have a -25 goal differential, are actively planning not to make it this year (they plan to pick high, then sign a mega UFA and be right back next year from what I hear). They are 4-6-0 in their last 10.

 

After NYR, Florida is10 out. -18, and 3-5-2 last 10. 

 

Technically NYR or Florida COULD make a run, but they seem very unlikely to. Detroit, Philly, NJ and Ottawa have no chance. 

 

This matters because one of the reasons teams more than 10 points out almost never make it: too many teams to jump. We have two teams to jump.

 

Buffalo has Eichel back and could surely heat up. BUT they have cooled down, and is Skinner really going to stay that hot? We are tied with them, but they have two beans. They are 3-6-1 in their last 10. They seem to be trending down, but the break might help them. 

 

Then who do we slip past that is in a spot? Amazingly Pittsburgh and Boston are right ahead in the WC slots, both have beans on us though. Either could fall, but both maintain healthy goal diffs making them seem stronger. 

 

IMO the path is through MTL or Columbus. If we keep on it, and Buffalo falls, one of those two dropping back could open the door. But it's massive guess work. Just about any team could fall. The key will be for us to keep at it.

Boston's Rask got concussed recently (last week). Upcoming break might help them, but if Radk is out for extended period of time Boston can slide from WC spot.

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3 hours ago, Bonivan said:

NHL needs to change format. If team from Eastern conf wins ASG then team from East will have home advantage in SC final and vice versa.

Dont agree.

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Here's where we stand using the "hag" stat (wins minus regulation losses).  This is a good way to get a realistic take on where teams actually stand given differences in number of games played.  Not going to get into another debate over why you should do that, but you should. Trust me, I'm a statistician :grin: (seriously, lol).

 

Metro         

Islanders        +14

Columbus      +11

Washington   +10

 

Wild Card    

Boston          +10         

Pittsburgh     +10

---------------------------

Buffalo          +6

Carolina        +4

 

So, still a steep hill to climb, but we're within spitting distance of Buffalo.  IF we can continue our current level of play we'd only need 1 of BJs, Caps, Bruins, or Penns to stumble in order to put us back in the money.

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5 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

Here's where we stand using the "hag" stat (wins minus regulation losses).  This is a good way to get a realistic take on where teams actually stand given differences in number of games played.  Not going to get into another debate over why you should do that, but you should. Trust me, I'm a statistician :grin: (seriously, lol).

 

Metro         

Islanders        +14

Columbus      +11

Washington   +10

 

Wild Card    

Boston          +10         

Pittsburgh     +10

---------------------------

Buffalo          +6

Carolina        +4

 

So, still a steep hill to climb, but we're within spitting distance of Buffalo.  IF we can continue our current level of play we'd only need 1 of BJs, Caps, Bruins, or Penns to stumble in order to put us back in the money.

Does lay it out cleaner. What about the teams under us? What are their Hag numbers? 

 

Still, agrees with my point, two teams to catch (and I suspect no other teams really in it).

 

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11 minutes ago, remkin said:

Does lay it out cleaner. What about the teams under us? What are their Hag numbers? 

 

Still, agrees with my point, two teams to catch (and I suspect no other teams really in it).

 

Rangers  +1

Fla           even

 

Yeah, I don't see either of them in it.  Steep enough for us at +4.

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54 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

Boston's Rask got concussed recently (last week). Upcoming break might help them, but if Radk is out for extended period of time Boston can slide from WC spot.

Rask wasn’t doing so hot earlier this year and Halak got a crap ton of starts...they did just fine without Tukka then

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14 hours ago, remkin said:

The next closest team is the NYR. They are 3 points behind us adjusted for magic beans...

 

BUT they have cooled down, and is Skinner really going to stay that hot? We are tied with them, but they have two beans.

 

Amazingly Pittsburgh and Boston are right ahead in the WC slots, both have beans on us though.

 

Too many beans give a team gas.

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18 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

On that note though, even though there's not "team practice" formally, is it permissible for players to have informal get togethers on the ice of course?

The only ice these guys want to see for the next week is in a high ball glass. 

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