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In-Season 2018-2019

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8 hours ago, AWACSooner said:

Evil Empire beat the Bolts...but the Stars just shut out the Slugs 

 

So, after some bean eating, the Canes need 7 pts to be in the last playoff spot.  Against CJB, only 6, but they still have a bean to eat.

 

Tonights CBJ game will clear out the beans and we'll see where the team is at going into Friday. 

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45 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

 

So, after some bean eating, the Canes need 7 pts to be in the last playoff spot.  Against CJB, only 6, but they still have a bean to eat.

 

Tonights CBJ game will clear out the beans and we'll see where the team is at going into Friday. 

Maybe just as importantly, making up 7 points would also put them at 2nd in the Metro. Not saying they will, but with the Pens, Caps and Bruins all sitting at 50 games/60 points, that gives the Canes more targets they can catch if a team above them falters. 

 

Edit: Gaining 6 points ties them with any of those teams, 7 puts them ahead. Too early to worry about tiebreakers just yet. 

Edited by Stealth-ch1

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As much as I hate the thought of the red hot Flyers clawing their way back into the conversation we need Philly to beat Boston tonight.

 

Mo's boys need to smack down the Bruins

 

Ny @ Nj  pick your poison

 

One more night of scoreboard watching and then we can get back at the playoff quest one game at a time

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1 hour ago, Stealth-ch1 said:

 

Edit: Gaining 6 points ties them with any of those teams, 7 puts them ahead. Too early to worry about tiebreakers just yet. 

 

Correct.  For now, assume Canes lose ties.  So the number now has to be 7.

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It's human nature to see patterns and assume things will stay the same.  It does currently look like it will take 97 or 98 points to get in.  But that is really really not likely to be the case.

 

Traditionally 93 is the number, believe it or not.  You just have to look historically to confirm that.   I do believe shooting for 93 would be ridiculous, however.  Shoot higher, obviously.   But teams are going to lose.  It sometimes feels like everyone wins you need to lose, but someone is losing every game.

 

I have pointed this out other seasons, but I'll reiterate.  Another way of looking at this is to use SportsClubStats to take the emotion out of it.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

 

The current page has run the remainder of the season 3.5 billion times.

 

Here is the percentage chance the Canes make the playoffs with the various point totals:

 

Pts   %chance in playoffs

92    39.6%

93    55.5%

94    70.9%

95    83.4%

96    91.9%

97    96.7%    

 

 

 

So even if we get 93 pts, in more than half of the runs of all the remaining games, the Canes make the playoffs.

 

I totally agree that we should make the best moves we can for the future.  But I am not willing to pull the plug yet, as the canes are +4 now, needing to finish +7 over the remaining 32 games to get to 93.  I would feel a lot more comfortable going +10 over the last remaining 32 games, but we are in it still.  Now if we come out of the gate here losing a couple, we really are dead.  We will know in a week if we have a pulse.  These are hard games and if we have a shot we need to show it now.  Right now.

 

 

Edited by hag65
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SCS is suggesting an atypically easy year to get in (especially with 92-94 points) then. 

 

I looked at the historical cut offs of the past 7 seasons (pro-rated the lockout). 

 

In the past three years (six cut-lines East and West) no team has gotten in with less than 94 points. 0/6.

In the past three years 4/6 times (67%) it took 95 points. 

 

(92 points or less got teams in 3/14 times. (21%) in the past 7 seasons). 

 

I think 95 points is the number to look at historically. It got teams in 93% of the time. 97 is the one outlier, so yes, 97 got teams in 100% of the time in the past 7 years, but only once was 95 not enough. Sportsclubstats simulation frameshifts the chances so that lower point totals get you in than historically. This may be true, but if so, then more reason to go for it.

 

So for the past 7 years I get:

 

X points: % of times it took that (Sportsclub simulation).

 

97 points: 100% (96.7)

96 points: 93% (91.9)

95 points: 93% (83.4)

94 points: 71%, (70.9) (but 37% in the past 4 years)

93 points: 29% (55.5)(12% last 4 years)

92 points: 21% (39.6)

91 points: 14%

 

Numbers track pretty well between recent (7 year) history, and their simulation, until 92-93 points where it seems more likely this year than historically. The last 3-4 years have been very tough on cut line teams. 94 or below was usually not enough. 

 

But SCS seems to be saying that it is simulating a much better chance this year for a team finishing with 92-93 points than historically, that's where history and their simulations part the most and they hold up the longer history of 94 points being 70%, which has not been true in the last 4 seasons. 

 

All academic of course. But the simulations suggest that 94 points is a good bet this year, but in that past 4 seasons, 94 points has only gotten teams in 3/8 times. And 0/4 times in the East. 

 

Obviously the more points the better, but for a team to slip in, sometimes you need the luck of a down year. The simulations seem to think that is more possible than usual, and even 92 points gives us a decent shot. Looking at the current points and the last seven years, I would not have thought that. I would have thought 

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So there has to be weighting to the SCS projections or else I'm making a math error (entirely possible). 

 

At present based on point percent, Montreal is the #8 team in the East. But they are on a 98 point pace. This seems nuts though, since over the last 7 years only once did a team a cut line team need 97 points and never 98. So this would seem to be an historically difficult year to hit the cut line. Yet SCS seems to think that at least one of the teams ahead of us is in for a drop. 

 

It's too complicated to run all of those schedules, but it is interesting, because as it sits this should be one of the most difficult cut lines to make, possibly requiring 98 points, yet SCS gives us a 55.5% chance at 93 points.  Not sure I get why. Could be schedule?

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Nice brief article on CanesCountry about Aho as a 1C. Bottom line: he is. 

 

https://www.canescountry.com/2019/1/30/18202572/carolina-hurricanes-by-the-numbers-sebastian-aho-top-line-center-micheal-ferland-teuvo-teravainen

 

Perhaps the simplest and most efficient metric in evaluating Sebastian Aho’s influence on the Hurricanes is his Goals For Percentage, 61.02% and 14th in the league among centers who have played more than 500 minutes this season. This indicates that the team is scoring significantly more while he’s on the ice than they’re getting scored on.

 

 

He may not be the prototypical big 1C, but he is effective and plays both ends of the ice. I would add that Aho is still on the upswing and this was his first year as a center. He has been a two way player his entire career too. Having Aho as a legit 1C, lets us look at 2C's (especially since Necas seems to be grooming as a winger to start) or wingers as we try to find more talent up front. 

 

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

So there has to be weighting to the SCS projections or else I'm making a math error (entirely possible). 

 

At present based on point percent, Montreal is the #8 team in the East. But they are on a 98 point pace. This seems nuts though, since over the last 7 years only once did a team a cut line team need 97 points and never 98. So this would seem to be an historically difficult year to hit the cut line. Yet SCS seems to think that at least one of the teams ahead of us is in for a drop. 

 

It's too complicated to run all of those schedules, but it is interesting, because as it sits this should be one of the most difficult cut lines to make, possibly requiring 98 points, yet SCS gives us a 55.5% chance at 93 points.  Not sure I get why. Could be schedule?

 

A few things, Rem:

1) MTL ate all their beans.  That pays a pretty big price in the simulation.

2) The weighting.  Here's what Ken says about how he does it:

Quote

The second limitation is important. I play each remaining game by flipping a coin.* The 50/50 version uses a true coin. Not very accurate. The weighted version uses a loaded coin. THIS IS THE KEY: If I magically knew the precise value to load each game's coin then every number on the site (the odds, the big games, the what ifs) would be perfectly accurate. But I can't know that, so for now I load each game's coin based on the 2 opponent's records.** Errors creep in when a team's true current strength is different from what their record implies. You have to read the numbers with this in mind.

 

I highlighted something in red that you always bring up.  The weighting he uses is based on the entire season's record.  If a team has gone sour or strong, it won't be factored.  I.E. for the Canes, he doesn't throw out December.  :)

 

But, if you take into account weighting and give credit for the current record and apply it to all future games, then it can have a pretty big impact on how things go in the millions of coin flips he does.

 

For the Canes, it is huge.  The unweighted simulation gives the Canes a 1 in 3 chance of playoffs.  The weighted a 1 in 4.  This reflects that the schedule is starting to run into a sticky area.

Edited by wxray1

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17 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

?? trade prelude?

Probably just calling him back up now that they're out of their break. Was only sent down to keep him playing in Charlotte during the bye week.

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13 minutes ago, Stealth-ch1 said:

Probably just calling him back up now that they're out of their break. Was only sent down to keep him playing in Charlotte during the bye week.

True, but it does still mean we're carrying a seventh D while at home, which is really not necessary with CLT so close by.

 

I'm still hoping a move is coming, hopefully before getting back to it tomorrow. As others have pointed out, we need to come out of the bye week on fire--or be toast. Another new face or two could spark the former and help avoid (or at least delay) the latter.

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This sounds ominous

 

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1 hour ago, OBXer said:

This sounds ominous

 

Love Jordan's demeanor and even keel, also what the Staal name has ment to the Hurricanes for many years. With that being said him being out has allowed some hungry guys to get playing time and overall the team has improved. If he cant be traded for a solid return for his health and for the teams continuity I would shut him down for the season and reassess trade options in the off season

Edited by Derailed75
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21 minutes ago, legend-1 said:

Mrazeks coming in hot with his second set of pads.

 

 

FB_IMG_1548972955938.jpg

Hopefully this works out better than Mongo’s second set of pads...and third...and...

 

;)

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2 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

Love Jordan's demeanor and even keel, also what the Staal name has ment to the Hurricanes for many years. With that being said him being out has allowed some hungry guys to get playing time and overall the team has improved. If he cant be traded for a solid return for his health and for the teams continuity I would shut him down for the season and reassess trade options in the off season

If Jordan can’t play, it’s a bummer, both for any help he might provide to the Canes, and for the fact it takes him off the board as a trade chip. But first and foremost, the concern has to be for Jordan as a person and for his family. IIRC, Crosby missed most of a season with a concussion and came back strong the next year, and has not had recurring concussion issues. Hope this works out the same for Jordan even if he doesn’t play again this year. 

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5 hours ago, wxray1 said:

I highlighted something in red that you always bring up.  The weighting he uses is based on the entire season's record.  If a team has gone sour or strong, it won't be factored.  I.E. for the Canes, he doesn't throw out December.  :)

 

But, if you take into account weighting and give credit for the current record and apply it to all future games, then it can have a pretty big impact on how things go in the millions of coin flips he does.

 

For the Canes, it is huge.  The unweighted simulation gives the Canes a 1 in 3 chance of playoffs.  The weighted a 1 in 4.  This reflects that the schedule is starting to run into a sticky area.

I think that we have two things working opposite each other, but the break.....the break could change things. 1. Is that the team is legitimately playing better hockey and getting rewarded for it. 2. The schedule is tough. 

 

NHL seasons are full of streaks both good and bad. Teams get hot and cold all the time over varying timeframes. Perhaps this is all just randomness, but I don't think so. It can be health, or homestands, or weak schedule, hot goaltending, or just team confidence, but it seems more than just random. (I could surely be wrong, just what it seems. Could be a study out there on it, but who knows)? 

 

At some point though teams do actually get better or worse. I just get the feeling that the Canes are getting better. They are getting to the game that seems to work for a lot of winning teams. That clearly overcame what SportsclubStats predicted would happen. This is not to criticize the site, but just to point out what I think you are saying further up in your post, that he cannot and does not try to figure out teams that have gotten better or worse than their overall record. 

 

But we did get better. Before we started the last 13 games SCS had our chances at 3.5%. Now it's 24%. The teams above us have stayed on a pretty hot pace, so that huge improvement is basically the team proving it had gotten better. And they did it on the road and vs good teams (almost beating the #1 team and the #2 team both on the road). 

 

So the team playing better, if it can get back to it, is a positive force. The schedule, I guess, is the negative one (that and we have to close points vs. just holding on). The thing about the schedule is that after the first two, we have a 5 game road trip. It's an Eastern trip, but still a 5 game road trip. So much will depend on the next 7-8 games (I add int the Oilers game because it is the dreaded home after road trip game). If we can get through the next 8 games and close the gap even a little, things get much better after that. Also, it will tell us if the team can get back to the game it was playing before the break fast enough. 

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Just looking at that next 8 games. If we get 10 points, 10/16, that's a 102.5 point pace including a 5 game road trip. This would almost certainly gain us at least a couple of points closer, and set us up for a much kinder schedule. 4-2-2 or 5-3 would get us there. This will be soooo much easier if we knock off Vegas and Calgary in those first two home games. Then we just need to go 2-2-2 or 3-3. 

 

If we do get the next two, it would also be bucking the trends: 1. Long breaks not good. 2. Sunday afternoon game vs Calgary, not good. 

 

If we get 8-9 points we will likely fall about 2 points farther back, though not necessarily, but we'd still have a kinder schedule ahead. 

 

Anything less than 7 points probably pushes us out, but that's more of a guess. 

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Rem, I’m just not seeing it...short of an absolute miracle, I just can’t see us pulling better than .500 this upcoming month.  

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9 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

Rem, I’m just not seeing it...short of an absolute miracle, I just can’t see us pulling better than .500 this upcoming month.  

 

Rem is right that if the team can dominate the next hard part of the schedule, then it gets kinder and things are possible.

 

And here's the problem...  This has happened before.  THAT is when the team tanks -- just when things are supposed to get easy.  This is why we are crazy.

 

In any case, 7 pts out, simulations saying 1 in 4, it adds up to longshot.  We'll see.

 

Edited by wxray1
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Well, the B’s are in OT vs Philly and the BJ’s are up over the Jets right now...so no help tonight 

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