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In-Season 2018-2019

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3 minutes ago, sleekfeeder said:

I feel like these next 3 are the season. Am I overreacting ?

 

 I feel the same. What will really count is the point spread at the end of the trip. If we lose and the teams in front of us lose. well you still have a chance. But what are the odds of that happening. We need these games.

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6 hours ago, raleighcaniac said:

Dundon has the cap space by a mile to keep Ferland even if it means overpaying him some. Trading him between now and the deadline for yet another draft pick with nothing more than potential, will indicate the team isn’t serious about building themselves into a contender this year which will bite them when UFA season begins; Why would Tier 1 UFA’s sign on with a team full of youngsters when they will get the same money signing with a team who is only a quality player or two away from playing in the Finals? For this team it always seems to be about next season.

I just see this differently than you, and apparently several others, raleighcaniac. Not to be the contrarian in this matter, and God knows that I hope we can keep Ferland as I continue to post, but as I see this situation, the ability to keep this or any other player when they've reached the pinnacle of their career, the pending UFA status, contrary to what you've suggested and I guess those that agree with your thoughts, is as I've tried to characterize as a "two way street" and to my mind is not solely dependent on the almighty dollar. Now I'll admit that I've got no idea where our true cap space might land after signing Aho and several others to their new contracts (and of course this presumes that you'll agree that keeping Aho outweighs keeping Ferland), but even if Dundon et al were to offer Ferland an outrageous amount of money, for argument sake lets say $7mil for 6 years, Ferland is under no obligation to accept that. We presume that he and his family ARE HAPPY HERE (why should he not be), but he may prefer to be closer to home and in a place he'd like to retire? Also, he may have the mindset that he'd like to explore the market to see just what his services are worth even though our offer might be vastly more than he could ever envision, but I'd really doubt that Waddell would or could offer an exorbitant amount as he has to be mindful of what, 49 other contracts? So bottom line, IMHO, is not that this situation is an indicator of " not being serious about building themselves into a contender this year", as much as I'd like to believe we could hold on to #79 for several more years. But it's a dilemma that has no easy, direct solution as it involves a marriage of both parties, each able to go in a different direction.

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32 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

Adam Gold article in the N&O.  Not much new that we haven't been talking about except speculation about shifting Pesce to his offside and TVR back to his natural right side.  But, it wasn't very clear to me what he was trying to get at.  I could see the move better showcasing TVR in order to perhaps move him, but as far as freeing  up a spot to sign Fox we'd still need to move one of Faulk, Pesce, or Hamilton if we want to maximize odds of getting Fox to sign, wouldn't we?

 

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/gold-down-the-stretch-canes-hoping-to-balance-present-and-future/18169947/

.

 

Lake, I'm wondering if any one from the Canes organization is allowed to explore Fox's mindset as to his desire to join this team, or is that a no no with college players? And if this contact is allowable under whatever rules apply to NCAA hockey players, I wonder if contact has been made, and further how was it received? I mean after all, he was drafted by Calgary and who knows where his true alliagence lies, so we may be going thru all this presumptive machinations when this player has no interest in becoming a Hurricane?

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I was listening to an interview this AM. Not even sure who it was, but yet another long time NHL player saying that a LOT of the game at this level is mental, and a lot of that is confidence. Guys gripping the stick or losing settling in or just tired getting through a long season. 

 

I keep thinking that Brind'Amour (and Williams) has combated this by keeping guys positive and keeping a fun aspect to the game alive. And I keep thinking this is paying off right now. The team just seems to be playing confident and loose, but loose in a good way, not loose coverage, but that almost oxymoronic "loose but focused" feeling of guys in the zone. I think this is allowing us to get to our game but also put pucks in the net. I maintain that there is a fine line between the skill and effort needed to score vs to almost score and having guys playing to their peak ability offensively allows us to get the most of our team scoring potential. 

 

The thing is Brindy said he was going for that from the very beginning, and I thought it sounded like a pretty good plan. But then, when things tightened up and the scoring went away, I thought we were done in by too little talent. I still question that in terms of a cup run, but somehow the coach, captain, leaders and players seem to have gotten back to that place where they feel able to make plays, even at the expense of mistakes. And it is paying off.

 

Can we keep it up? I don't know, but it will be fun if we can.

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7 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

Only makes an appearance after a loss. Death...Taxes...bd58.

You totally called that during the recent point string. Sooo predictable. Not that he'd know, of course; he wasn't here (given the aforementioned string...)-- and catching up would have required actually giving a *edit*.

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7 hours ago, sleekfeeder said:

I feel like these next 3 are the season. Am I overreacting ?

I wouldn't say overreacting. I do think we need 7 of 10 points on this road swing to remain relevant.

 

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10 hours ago, OBXer said:

 

 I feel the same. What will really count is the point spread at the end of the trip. If we lose and the teams in front of us lose. well you still have a chance. But what are the odds of that happening. We need these games.

Let me add...  These are important to outright win because they help with some tie-breaker scenarios.

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10 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Lake, I'm wondering if any one from the Canes organization is allowed to explore Fox's mindset as to his desire to join this team, or is that a no no with college players? And if this contact is allowable under whatever rules apply to NCAA hockey players, I wonder if contact has been made, and further how was it received? I mean after all, he was drafted by Calgary and who knows where his true alliagence lies, so we may be going thru all this presumptive machinations when this player has no interest in becoming a Hurricane?

 

Not sure, but supposedly the Canes have already had such a conversation, so I'd lean towards thinking that there is some leeway.   I doubt they could discuss specifics at all, and probably best that the Canes don't pay for lunch if they get together over a meal. :P

Edited by LakeLivin

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Wow, this upcoming Buffalo game looms huge.   Should be interesting.

 

The sportsclub stats simulation rightfully shows that Buffalo has the edge on the Canes due to a magic bean in a 50/50 random pick.  If you choose the default of a weighted pick, the Canes now have the edge over Buffalo.  I think this is for two reasons.

1) The Canes now dominate ROW against Buf and win the tiebreaker.

2) The Slugs have a harder set of opponents (based on full year record) from here out.

 

But who cares about the Slugs?  Just beat them and then we can talk about taking over CBJ and PIT.

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12 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

Wow, this upcoming Buffalo game looms huge.   Should be interesting.

 

The sportsclub stats simulation rightfully shows that Buffalo has the edge on the Canes due to a magic bean in a 50/50 random pick.  If you choose the default of a weighted pick, the Canes now have the edge over Buffalo.  I think this is for two reasons.

1) The Canes now dominate ROW against Buf and win the tiebreaker.

2) The Slugs have a harder set of opponents (based on full year record) from here out.

 

But who cares about the Slugs?  Just beat them and then we can talk about taking over CBJ and PIT.

Ill take a similiar result to the last time we met. Aho's line matched up with Eichel and Skinner.  I believe Skinner scored but went minus 3.  

 

I wont know what to do with myself if I see the Canes play two strong nights in a row in 4 point games. 

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These next two will be interesting. I agree that the game tomorrow looms big. Not just the 4 point thing, but that we are going into our MSG house of horrors next on a third in four back end of back to back situation. Now this team has been amazingly resilient to the third in three thing, and they did just have a long break, but still, getting 2 points in Buffalo allows leeway on that MSG game. 

 

The other thing is that these first three games of the 5 game road trip are the hardest on paper at least. After that MSG game the schedule starts to tilt in our favor for the rest of the month. Road games are always tough, but NJ and Ottawa are in down years, and we owe Ottawa. Then we get Edmonton and Dallas and the NYR at home, none pushovers, but not up years for any of them. Florida, Dallas on the road, LA at home, STL at home Florida on the road. That's 10 very winnable games vs what we've been through recently. 

 

Alas, not really a great idea to look to far ahead, but if we can even split these next two, and especially if we get 2 in Buffalo, it is there for the taking after that.

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5 minutes ago, remkin said:

These next two will be interesting. I agree that the game tomorrow looms big. Not just the 4 point thing, but that we are going into our MSG house of horrors next on a third in four back end of back to back situation. Now this team has been amazingly resilient to the third in three thing, and they did just have a long break, but still, getting 2 points in Buffalo allows leeway on that MSG game. 

 

The other thing is that these first three games of the 5 game road trip are the hardest on paper at least. After that MSG game the schedule starts to tilt in our favor for the rest of the month. Road games are always tough, but NJ and Ottawa are in down years, and we owe Ottawa. Then we get Edmonton and Dallas and the NYR at home, none pushovers, but not up years for any of them. Florida, Dallas on the road, LA at home, STL at home Florida on the road. That's 10 very winnable games vs what we've been through recently. 

 

Alas, not really a great idea to look to far ahead, but if we can even split these next two, and especially if we get 2 in Buffalo, it is there for the taking after that.

I predict we will beat the Rags. We seem to be good on back to backs and this team and RB want to put that last game against the Rags in the trash bin. No problem getting up for the Ranger game.

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5 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

I predict we will beat the Rags. We seem to be good on back to backs and this team and RB want to put that last game against the Rags in the trash bin. No problem getting up for the Ranger game.

 

And I'm guessing we'll see McElhinney in goal in the Garden.  I was worried about how he'd look after his layoff, but last night sure alleviated those concerns for me.

 

edit: maybe not McElhinney at NY.  I could see Rod going back to McBackup tomorrow given that it's a 4 point game.

Edited by LakeLivin

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27 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

And I'm guessing we'll see McElhinney in goal in the Garden.  I was worried about how he'd look after his layoff, but last night sure alleviated those concerns for me.

 

edit: maybe not McElhinney at NY.  I could see Rod going back to McBackup tomorrow given that it's a 4 point game.

Yes this appears to be our first real big goalie decision. McE seems to be better with rest although typically after pitching a shut out you get the next start. Going to be interesting on the decision.

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Reports of McElhinney' knee being "sore" concern me. Wonder how it's doing after last night? Hopefully the layoff he had rested it and the soreness will not recur.

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I know a lot of you aren't high on Mrazek but watching highlights of the Flames game he was on and left out to dry by the D. I'm not concerned which starts they both have been solid and at times even great

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7 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

I predict we will beat the Rags. We seem to be good on back to backs and this team and RB want to put that last game against the Rags in the trash bin. No problem getting up for the Ranger game.

 

It's time.  It just is.  I'm with ya.

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31 minutes ago, Derailed75 said:

I know a lot of you aren't high on Mrazek but watching highlights of the Flames game he was on and left out to dry by the D. I'm not concerned which starts they both have been solid and at times even great

I actually feel pretty alone on my Mrazek opinions, but I feel that Mac whose behind the same team and not getting typical sheltered backup starts should serve as proof that you can play for the Hurricanes and still have a respectable SV %. I wouldn't tell Mrazek to hit the road either, but I would probably see what's available at the deadline as well as observe how free agency is playing out before offering him a new deal.

 

I would not be upset if the tandem stayed the same, but I wouldn't hand him a new deal during the season either.

 

Why does Mac do better then Mrazek? My opinion, Mac let's the game come to him. He rarely finds himself outside the crease sprawling. Mrazek's much more all over the place and I think it hurts him. It's somewhat laughable how little Mac makes in moving around and how much he gets out of it. I swear it shouldn't work, but it does.

 

Edited by legend-1
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So Lake got me thinking again about the evidence that this team is or isn't for real. I really think they are for real. First, is the fact that the team has been playing this same game, dominating possession and shots, but also quickly transitioning, all year, but seems to be getting that last part, the "putting pucks in the net" part down over about the last 16 games. This includes some good teams but also some bad scheduling issues, including 3 strong games after the big lay off. 

 

I know that what I'm about to put here is a bit gimmicky, but bear with me. I think there's a legit point in there. Every team has games that they just don't show up. Don't have their legs, virus passing around, bummed out, whatever. I've heard coaches estimate maybe 10 games/year like that. OK, we don't have a team that is likely to win those. We're not that good. But not many teams are. Certainly that's not the cutline for playoffs teams. 

 

But the thing is, when we do show up, we rock. We are only beaten by the uber elite teams when we're on our game lately. In the past 16 games we've no-showed twice: at MSG, and vs Ottawa. OK, but if you throw those two out? In the other 14 games:

 

We are 11-2-1 with a goal differential of +21

 

We've only been beaten by the two most dominant teams in the NHL when we play our game. Based on points percentage, AND goal differential, Tampa and Calgary are #1 and #2. They are the only other losses (outside of the 2 no-shows) in the last 16 games. And one was an OTL, and one was by one goal. 

 

In the past 16 consecutive games we showed up for (14 of 16), where the other team is not either the #1 team in the East or the #1 team in the West, we are 11-0. 

 

Even if you throw the clunkers back in, we are 11-4-1 and sport a goal diff of +14. Prorated over 53 games, if we were playing like this all year we'd be +46. (Third best in the NHL). OK, YES this is slippery. Teams all have down times too. I'm not claiming we are the #3 team in the NHL, but arguably, we have been over the last 16 games or at least close. 

 

The obvious question is can we keep this up? I think we absolutely can. OK, maybe not 11-4-1, but good enough to get in. We have young or less NHL seasoned players getting better as they go: Svech, Foegele, Walmark, McKegg. We have Faulk dialed in. We have Dougie starting to show the offense and becoming engaged. Nino is a legit player who is rejuvenated. We have a truly elite center and IMO D man in Aho and Slavin, solid goaltending and a very good D top to bottom. On top of all of that Justin Williams seems to have found more of his old self lately. 

 

16 games is a decent sample size. It's 30% of the games played, but most importantly, the most recent 30%. 

 

Based on this theory, we should win the next two if we show up. If that happens, I'm all in.

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Not this topic but  AWAC I can’t post on your get together topic. Not sure why

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

So Lake got me thinking again about the evidence that this team is or isn't for real. I really think they are for real. First, . . .

 

Just to be clear, my post that got rem thinking didn't question whether the Canes are for real.  It just noted that last night's Pens aren't the Pens of the recent past, including no Malkin in the lineup.  Regardless, still a very impressive performance by the Canes. 

 

(rem, I'm not saying that's what you were implying, I just don't want anyone else to get the wrong impression)

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11 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Just to be clear, my post that got rem thinking didn't question whether the Canes are for real.  It just noted that last night's Pens aren't the Pens of the recent past, including no Malkin in the lineup.  Regardless, still a very impressive performance by the Canes. 

 

(rem, I'm not saying that's what you were implying, I just don't want anyone else to get the wrong impression)

Yes, the Pens are not the Pens of old with Malkin or without him. I would think that our performance against them though would of beat most if not all teams. Absolutely smothering defense wouldn't let the Pens breath. Hoping they demonstrate the same D against the Slugs.

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In '05-'06, the team collectively responded and surprised us fans. 

- 2 goals down 3rd period?  No problem.  Maybe we'll get 2 in the last 0:22 of the game.

- Losing streak?  How about a few mega winning streaks to give a cushion.

- Cole's broken neck?  JR has backfill and depth that he got in surprise early moves (Weight).

- Gerber playing with Norovirus and lost 15 lbs?  No problem, the rookie goaltender will take it from there.

- Etc.

 

We had a few echoes of this in '09 playoffs, with perhaps the memorable highlight of the last 10 years being a win for an emotional Scotty Walker and his wife.

 

Since then?  Duds.  Just when the team needs to pick it up, they turn turtle.  Always at exactly the wrong time.

 

This team is due to stop that madness and surprise us all, including themselves.  Now is the time.  These two games, right here. 

Edited by wxray1
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12 hours ago, cc said:

Not this topic but  AWAC I can’t post on your get together topic. Not sure why

Working to fix that 

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