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In-season trades and player moves

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2 hours ago, AWACSooner said:

1. I’d move Faulk before Dougie.

2. Pete and Mac should get 2 year contracts max...Mac is getting up there in age and I want to make sure this year wasn’t an aberration for Pete.

3. Ask J Willy if he would sign another 2 year deal

4. No more than $5.5M for Ferland

5. Give Aho whatever he wants 

6. Send Mongo packing with some parting gifts

1. They have tried moving Faulk for 2 years.  He will be down to 1 season left on his contract, and the return will be marginal compared to Hamilton.

2. Mrazek came him on a 1 year deal to bridge over to a longer term deal, there or elsewhere.  Doubt 2 years will retain him, but we will see.  Hard to imagine them offering McE 2 years based upon age and knees.  When will Ned ever get a chance?

3. Canes and /Williams may want to go year by year mutually.

4. I think Ferland's value may be declining somewhat due to his inability to stay in the lineup.

5. Right, meaning about $9M per.

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The goalie situation could be tricky. This tandem is a solid part of why this team has done what it's done. The first time in seemingly forever that our team save percentage is in the top half of the league (just barely, but that's still a massive improvement). This tandem has proven to be enough, something we couldn't say for many years before. If we mess with it next year, we are right back mired in the pit of the mediocre goalie carousel that has spun disaster here and several other places that just can't seem to ever find goaltending. 

 

I will say this. I was down on Ned for a save percentage hovering around .900. Before I wrote that down I went to look, and see that he has gotten his save percentage to .912. On the one hand this is only good for mid pack around #15 in the AHL. On the other hand, if he was sitting close to .900 for the first half of the year, then he must have improved a lot in the second half. Might be closer to .920 recently. So maybe Ned is getting closer. But he his totally unproven at the NHL level. He is also a small goalie, like Mrazek, so not sure that's the ideal tandem. 

 

To me McE is proven. Unfortunately, he's 35 so at what age can you remain proven to the next year? And does he want to stay. Term could be an issue with him too. Will he be able to get 2 years somewhere? 

 

Is Mrazek proven? Despite his very strong play of late, I have doubts long term. He has been very good lately, but he's only #37 in the NHL in save percentage. Is that where you want you're #1? Handing Mrazek a 4-5 year deal for even low #1 money could end badly. Mongo was better for longer. A long term Mrazek deal has the real potential of this team buying out two goalies at some point. Shorter term would be different, and at the least Mrazek would be a strong back up.

 

So I guess, I'd love to roll this same tandem out there next year, but I don't want to give much term to either guy. And those things might be incompatible. But don't listen to me anyways, because what little I might know, none of it includes goalies.

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FYI, Fox could be done with his NCAA season as early as Saturday, March 16, more likely the following week, Saturday March 23rd.  Conference tourney series next weekend then championship the following weekend.  Harvard is a bubble team for the NCAAs.

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3 hours ago, hag65 said:

FYI, Fox could be done with his NCAA season as early as Saturday, March 16, more likely the following week, Saturday March 23rd.  Conference tourney series next weekend then championship the following weekend.  Harvard is a bubble team for the NCAAs.

Noticed that Vancouver has 2 players they are positioned to sign from NCAA. 2 problems I see with Fox though. Unless I'm wrong, I don't believe he's a Senior, and I thought we've been told that he wanted to finish out college? Another is that we really don't know, unless I missed it, that he even wants to come to the Canes? I'm sure that someone will correct me if either is incorrect?

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1 minute ago, KJUNKANE said:

Noticed that Vancouver has 2 players they are positioned to sign from NCAA. 2 problems I see with Fox though. Unless I'm wrong, I don't believe he's a Senior, and I thought we've been told that he wanted to finish out college? Another is that we really don't know, unless I missed it, that he even wants to come to the Canes? I'm sure that someone will correct me if either is incorrect?

 

If he wants to finish college we lose him as he reenters the draft this year then.

 

I have no sources but previous discussions were that he wanted to enter the NHL ASAP.

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12 minutes ago, hag65 said:

If he wants to finish college we lose him as he reenters the draft this year then.

 

I have no sources but previous discussions were that he wanted to enter the NHL ASAP.

 

Fox was drafted in 2016 and I"m pretty sure we have his rights until August 2020 (4 years from draft year, not tied to anything school related).. But hopefully it's a moot point. Waddell said Canes talked to him and he wanted to get to NHL as soon as possible.  So sign him after his college season ends, send him to Charlotte, and hopefully he'll go full on Werenski for us (led BJs AHL team to Calder Cup and then successfully joined the BJs the following season).   

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21 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Noticed that Vancouver has 2 players they are positioned to sign from NCAA. 2 problems I see with Fox though. Unless I'm wrong, I don't believe he's a Senior, and I thought we've been told that he wanted to finish out college? Another is that we really don't know, unless I missed it, that he even wants to come to the Canes? I'm sure that someone will correct me if either is incorrect?

Fox wants to graduate from Harvard. He has done the work to do that after this year, his junior year.  I don’t remember if he will graduate in the typical graduation time or have a finish up a couple of classes during a summer session.  He wants to sign after he graduates.

 

He wants the fastest route to the league. The team that has his rights is his fastest route.  If not he delays for a year to attend Harvard for grad school.  Then goes the FA route.  

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1 minute ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Fox was drafted in 2016 and I"m pretty sure we have his rights until August 2020 (4 years from draft year, not tied to anything school related).. But hopefully it's a moot point. Waddell said Canes talked to him and he wanted to get to NHL as soon as possible.  So sign him after his college season ends, send him to Charlotte, and hopefully he'll go full on Werenski for us (led BJs AHL team to Calder Cup and then successfully joined the BJs the following season).   

 

May be so, I am no expert.  My comment was just to point out the NCAA schedule and his availability to be signed as I follow NCAA hockey closely.

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Just a thought on Fox. The guy has to have pretty massive trade value right from the jump. I know people don't want to sign a guy to a one-way right out of college, but for crying out loud Hanifin was only 18 and didn't put up anything near the numbers in college that Fox has (almost no one has). We have cap space out the ying-yang. Just sign the guy to a one way and deal with the log-jam later. It's just an entry level contract. There is simply too much tantalizing upside to let this guy go the way of Jack Johnson. Don't mess with him, just give him a nice deal and welcome him aboard. 

 

He can still be traded if in the end it doesn't work and at least we get something. Or if he's somehow a total bust, he can still be sent down even on a one way. 

 

The dynamics of moving a RHD is better in the offseason especially around the draft. 


If this guy can play defense, and his offense translates to the NHL, he is potential Norris trophy offensively. 

 

The other irony of all of our depth is this. We can sign Fox. Trade say Hamilton. And if Fox is a bust, we still go Pesce/Faulk/TVR down the right, with McKeown, who somehow is at the top of the AHL AGAIN in plus/minus ready if needed. And we still have Bean and Fleury. We can afford to sign Fox, then have him pull a full Ryan Murphy, and still have too much D to know what to do with. We could trade him, waive him, send him down, put him in the press box...whatever. 

 

But we won't need to. This guy is the real deal. 

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Ill take a run at this:

 

I'd offer Mrazek two years 7 mil, maybe 8 depending how he finishes out the year

I'd give McE a one year deal due to his age.  In the end he still has to beat Ned for the job.

J will- see what he wants.  he is the captain, he gets to dictate. I go year to year but again he has earned the right to control his future here.

 

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

Ill take a run at this:

 

I'd offer Mrazek two years 7 mil, maybe 8 depending how he finishes out the year

I'd give McE a one year deal due to his age.  In the end he still has to beat Ned for the job.

J will- see what he wants.  he is the captain, he gets to dictate. I go year to year but again he has earned the right to control his future here.

 

I agree.  The fact is that even without Skinner, Hanifan, Lindholm, and Ward, I like this version of the Canes going forward more.  All 4 of them would be FA's by this season's end, and we got some value (from Calgary) and some salary space and picks to change the roster and culture.  In any case we have realized the importance of solid goaltending and physical play this season.

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The idea of signing Fox is juxtaposed with the thought of trading one, or two, RH defenders for asset(s) (either physical forward to replace Ferland if he leaves or goalie).  Right now the Canes have 4 RH defenders along with McKeown down in Charlotte, so with the addition of Fox they would have 6 NHL ready RH defenders.  They also have 2 LH plus Fleury and Bean .  It is easy to see them using 2 of their RH defenders as trade barter should they bring in Fox.

 

Let me just make my point.  Under no conditions would I trade Brett Pesce.  In 60 games played this season he is +30.  That is crazy good, and leads the team.  Of the other RH defenders, Hamilton is -1, Faulk +7, and TVR -5.  If they were trading 2, it seems to me it would be TVR (to unload contract and get draft pick) and either Hamilton or Faulk (for current asset).  Hamilton and Faulk bring a similar skill set to the team, so whomever brings back more in return would be the way to go.

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12 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Let me just make my point.  Under no conditions would I trade Brett Pesce.  In 60 games played this season he is +30.  That is crazy good, and leads the team.  Of the other RH defenders, Hamilton is -1, Faulk +7, and TVR -5. 

I understand where you are headed.  Just caution using +/- to support your point.  Top line, 2nd line,3rd line face different challenges.  And D are always as pairs.  Looking at them for +/- singularly can be statistically misleading.  Just a thought.

 

PS-FOX has not played a single NHL game. 

Edited by cc

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I think plus/minus at the extremes is much more telling than most do. Over long periods and compared to teammates and linemates, it almost always ends up reflecting what is happening on the ice. This is debatable of course and has been debated to death here. But IF one agrees that +/- has somme utility in some situations, it has to be used carefully in the context of difficulty of opponent, defensive zone starts, ranking on the team, any known injuries, comparison with linemates/D parters, and over multiple years. 

 

That's a lot of manipulation, and that also opens the door for error. 

 

This is why more direct measures of individual plays made on the ice that are known to correlate with good outcomes are better. Luckily, our guys are using those types of stats. They will mostly correlate with +/- guys who are extremely consistently good (Pesce) or have had long stretches of bad (Faulk before this year). Most players though, are more in the mid pack. And even if one accepts it has some usefulness at the extremes, +/- definitely becomes more and more useless the closer to average. 

 

Hamilton is a career +21 and not routinely at the bottom of his team. He was also injured early in the year when he was near the bottom, but has improved and is now 8 from the bottom and faces top competition. He also scores goals better than any defender on this team, and is a big part of this team's current run. 

 

I think that which RHD to trade is a very tough task. Pesce's mind blowing plus/minus despite playing top lines, has to play in. 

 

To me Faulk is just soooo much better this year. He is making many slick little plays to move the puck out, and may well be our best pure puck mover. Can he keep this up? If so, with only one year on his deal, he is probably worth more to us than his return.

 

Yet the upside of Fox is just too tantalizing, and we have a log jam. 

 

I don't have a good answer. I guess it comes down to return. 

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1 hour ago, cc said:

I understand where you are headed.  Just caution using +/- to support your point.  Top line, 2nd line,3rd line face different challenges.  And D are always as pairs.  Looking at them for +/- singularly can be statistically misleading.  Just a thought.

 

PS-FOX has not played a single NHL game. 

Pesce has played with several defensive partners AND from both sides.  His regular partner from previous seasons, Slavin, is currently at -3.  Slavin probably plays most often with Hamilton now and against the opponents top pairing, so Slavin at -3 and Hamilton at -1 is not a poor reflection.  Pesce is mostly playing on the left side with Faulk at the moment, which may be the reason Faulk's numbers have climbed into the + side this season.  He has also played with TVR and de Haan.  Bottom line is that none of the other 5 defenders have anywhere in the neighborhood of Pesce's +30.  Aho and Turbo have the best numbers of the forwards.

In my mind the 3 most untouchable players on the team are Aho, Slavin, and Pesce, with Svechnikov sneaking up due to his potential. 

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Faulks numbers are not due(solely) to Pesce.  He is not doing things he used to.  Yeah- that stupid stuff.  And he seems to be placing the puck on the net.

I'd trade Pesce in a skippy minute(as they say in the south).  Then our new Saviour, FOX (the one who's never played in the NHL) can have a home.

 

 

I could be sarcastic here.  Not sure.

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Ill drop this here.  Fox is staying in Harvard for his senior year with a preference to be a FA after it is done.  

 

Cotton is also staying at BC for his senior year.  I have only seen reports that he wants be the Captain on BC. Could be a chance he signs with us after his senior year.

Edited by gocanes0506

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31 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

Ill drop this here.  Fox is staying in Harvard for his senior year with a preference to be a FA after it is done.  

 

Cotton is also staying at BC for his senior year.  I have only seen reports that he wants be the Captain on BC. Could be a chance he signs with us after his senior year.

See responses on the other thread. Is this final, or could this be posturing? Have Canes commented?

 

Waddell needs to comment after saying this:

Canes seemed confident they would get Fox signed. At rookie camp in June, Canes GM Don Waddell said: "I'd say it's 99.9 percent we will get him signed. I don't see it being as issue at all."

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If that happens, and Ferland walks as expected, we will have traded two #5 overall picks in Hanifin and Lindholm for Dougie. 

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From CBSsports.com: (seems to be quoting the same source, but seems pretty definitive too):

 

Fox has decided not to sign with Carolina and will instead return to Harvard University for his senior season , Jeff Cox of the New England Hockey Journal reports.

And there is the news that all Carolina fans were dreading. Fox, a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award as college hockey's top player, is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. He has nothing left to prove at the collegiate level after posting 48 points in 32 games this season for the Crimson and his decision to return to school strongly implies that he will be joining a different organization next summer. Fox, who grew up on Long Island, was originally a third-round pick of Calgary in 2016. Expect the Rangers to be heavily involved in his free agent proceedings in the summer of 2020.

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39 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

😡🤮

Hope he has a career like Jack Johnson

If it is his final decision then it is obviously bad for us but blaming him for not signing is like blaming a player with NTC for not waving it

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46 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

If it is his final decision then it is obviously bad for us but blaming him for not signing is like blaming a player with NTC for not waving it

I absolutely think that rule is pathetic and needs to go away.  You got drafted by a team and decided to go to college?  Fine, but that team owns your  rights til you either live out your entry contract, or your rights get traded.  This loophole is pure BS

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Totally agree with you Sooner. I never cared for Eric Lindros, John Elway, etc.... You get drafted by a team that wants you, it’s an honor. Don’t be a crybaby cause you didn’t get your way. When they get to being a UFA, fine. Until then, play for the team that wants you.

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Badger and Awacs don't want to insult any of you but doesn't it sound very similar to slavery? Just replace "team" with "master" and "drafted" with "bought". Teams can trade or buyout players at any time that's why players can ask for NTC/NMC or not sign at all. I don't like that decision by Fox (and maybe Calgary had an idea that he will not sign with them and neither with us) but it is what it is and it is not against existing rules. BTW can Canes still sign him at any moment before his college year starts? Maybe run in playoffs and couple of D for O trades will help to change his mind.

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