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gocanes0506

GDT 11/27/18 Canes vs Les Habitants @ 730pm

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11-9-3 25 points

 

vs

 

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11-8-5 27 points

 

Overview:

Habs have done better than expected early in the season. In the last 10 they have come back to earth with a 3-4-3 record over that time.

 

We all know about the Canes.

 

Should see a McE vs Price matchup in this game.

 

Questions for the game:

Was the plan for Bean to play or was his call up a just in case Fleury/Pesce arent ready to go?

Does Z get into the game as Rask's LW?

How does the team respond after a public call out and abysmal performance against the Islanders? (we have given them almost 25% of their points this season)

 

I like digging into numbers.  The following is a breakdown of our advanced stats so far this season (more to go off of than my first thread).

 

The anomaly of Jaccob Slavin's -12 so far:

 

Slavin has the 2nd lowest O zone start % among defenders, Pesce is first, and 7th lowest on the team for skaters ( 6th- Martinook, 5th Pesce, 4th  Williams, 3rd Rask, 2nd Staal, and Roy, lowest)

Even strength, Jaccob has a 57% start in the O zone.  the shot % for is 4.4%, the one ice save% is 87.6😨

With Dougie as his partner the corsi for is high at 61.53 but the shot attempts is where we see the issue.  The High danger chances are still in their favor at 89 for and 64 against.  The high danger goals for are 6 and 10 against.  We are scoring at a 6% rate with them on the ice in high danger areas but allowing a 15% high danger goals against.  2.5 times as many HDG against.  Is that a goalie not making the stops, we arent making our HDGs, and/or the HD chances Slavin/Dougie give up are better than our HD chances?

 

Without Dougie, Jaccob there are more HDCA (high danger chances against) than for, 16 F, 20 A. My assumption is this is due to playing against top lines with another defender, the corsi without Dougie is also down 6 points as well.  The crazy thing is we have scored 3 HDGs and  the opposition only 1.  18.75% for to a 15% against for HDGs.  Our HDG scoring % triples and the opposition's stays the same.  The three HDGA came with Pesce (2) and TVR (1) as Slavin's partners.  The most alarming stat bout Slavin without Dougie, the on ice save percentage is 82.46%

 

As a pair with Slavin

Dougie -5

Pesce -1

TVR -2

de Haan -2

Faulk -1

Fleury Even (no goals for or against)

 

Then the other -1 is a GA on the PP.

 

Before we all jump on the we need to switch partners Slavin and Dougie are -5 at even strength while playing 336 minutes together but Slavin is -6 with everyone else but only played 95 minutes away from Dougie on even strength.  

 

Now if I look at situational work

When the game is tied

Slavin & Dougie -7 (despite have more HDCF) (6 allowed HDGA)

Slavin & someone else -3

Dougie & someone else -1

No Dougie & no Slavin +7

 

When we are leading

Slavin & Dougie -+2

Slavin & someone else -1

Dougie & someone else even

No Dougie & no Slavin -1

 

When we are trailing

Slavin & Dougie even

Slavin & someone else -3

Dougie & someone else +2

No Dougie & no Slavin +5

 

Overall, the biggest stand out number is the one ice save percentage when Slavin is on the ice.  When Slavin is on the ice at ES the save percentage is around 85% but without him on the ice it is 92%.  Very odd stat that has multiple reasons for causes. 

 

GO CANES.  

 

P.s. let me know if you want something else added to the discussion.

 

 

 

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Heres an idea, somebody put the damn puck in the net when Slavin is on the ice so he doesn't need to cover for our scoring challenged bottom 9 forwards. That will solve the +/-  excuse debate.

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

The anomaly of Jaccob Slavin's -12 so far:

 

Slavin has the 2nd lowest O zone start % among defenders, Pesce is first, and 7th lowest on the team for skaters ( 6th- Martinook, 5th Pesce, 4th  Williams, 3rd Rask, 2nd Staal, and Roy, lowest)

Even strength, Jaccob has a 57% start in the O zone.  the shot % for is 4.4%, the one ice save% is 87.6😨

With Dougie as his partner the corsi for is high at 61.53 but the shot attempts is where we see the issue.  The High danger chances are still in their favor at 89 for and 64 against.  The high danger goals for are 6 and 10 against.  We are scoring at a 6% rate with them on the ice in high danger areas but allowing a 15% high danger goals against.  2.5 times as many HDG against.  Is that a goalie not making the stops, we arent making our HDGs, and/or the HD chances Slavin/Dougie give up are better than our HD chances?

 

Without Dougie, Jaccob there are more HDCA (high danger chances against) than for, 16 F, 20 A. My assumption is this is due to playing against top lines with another defender, the corsi without Dougie is also down 6 points as well.  The crazy thing is we have scored 3 HDGs and  the opposition only 1.  18.75% for to a 15% against for HDGs.  Our HDG scoring % triples and the opposition's stays the same.  The three HDGA came with Pesce (2) and TVR (1) as Slavin's partners.  The most alarming stat bout Slavin without Dougie, the on ice save percentage is 82.46%

 

As a pair with Slavin

Dougie -5

Pesce -1

TVR -2

de Haan -2

Faulk -1

Fleury Even (no goals for or against)

 

Then the other -1 is a GA on the PP.

 

Before we all jump on the we need to switch partners Slavin and Dougie are -5 at even strength while playing 336 minutes together but Slavin is -6 with everyone else but only played 95 minutes away from Dougie on even strength.  

 

Now if I look at situational work

When the game is tied

Slavin & Dougie -7 (despite have more HDCF) (6 allowed HDGA)

Slavin & someone else -3

Dougie & someone else -1

No Dougie & no Slavin +7

 

When we are leading

Slavin & Dougie -+2

Slavin & someone else -1

Dougie & someone else even

No Dougie & no Slavin -1

 

When we are trailing

Slavin & Dougie even

Slavin & someone else -3

Dougie & someone else +2

No Dougie & no Slavin +5

 

Overall, the biggest stand out number is the one ice save percentage when Slavin is on the ice.  When Slavin is on the ice at ES the save percentage is around 85% but without him on the ice it is 92%.  Very odd stat that has multiple reasons for causes. 

 

GO CANES.  

 

P.s. let me know if you want something else added to the discussion.

 

 

That distant rumbling you just heard was the sound of my brain exploding while reading this.

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20 hours ago, OBXer said:

Heres an idea, somebody put the damn puck in the net when Slavin is on the ice so he doesn't need to cover for our scoring challenged bottom 9 forwards. That will solve the +/-  excuse debate.

 

because you asked I'll go into the guys putting the puck in the net

 

With Slavin, Dougie & Staals (Foegele) line: +1, even on HDGs, and an oustanding 69.9 corsi %  (58 minutes of ice time over 23 games)

With Slavin, Dougie & Staals (McGinn) line: even, even on HDGs, and an great 63 corsi % (40 minues of ice time)

 

98 minutes with the top shutdown line and 158 minutes without them

 

72 minutes with Aho's line: +2,  +1 HDGs, 61.8 corsi %, funny stat this group is -2 when Ferland isnt a part of it.

47 minutes with Wallmark's line: -2, even, and 58 corsi %

 

I am not seeing anything glaring when trying to mix up the all the remaining names that have been the 4th line.

 

Based on that Slavin is doing well with the lines established, a +1, and looking over the combos when people are not on the line, are we that bad a changing lines? As in do we give up that many goals during a change/partial change versus the lines being organic?  Or do we give up more goals when we try to mix up the lines?  Interesting to me anyways.  I feel like we give up some HDCs on line changes, I dont know that it is a regular thing with partial changes though.

 

 

Edited by gocanes0506

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29 minutes ago, realmdrakkar said:

 

 

That distant rumbling you just heard was the sound of my brain exploding while reading this.

sorry I wanted to discuss something other than Faulk to see seem fair / not as biased

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9 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

This is good, real good.  Darling isn't starting. The Foegele Thing Sounds Like a Meh Move.

 

 

Foegele needs to bring the magic.  If he doesn't, i agree that he could perhaps use a game or two off to observe.  I hope Zykov draws in because i'd like to see if he can take what he learned in Charlotte back to Raleigh with him.  Looks like Bean plays... hoping for good things there.  Starting McElhinney is the best move RB can make, IMO.

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11 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

The weird thing is the Canes can take their +2 and turn it into +3 and a wildcard spot with a win.

 Can we have nice things??????   Once again the dominoes align themselves for a play off spot. Chance to move up.. So far when this happens we are 0 for 820 🤬...

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The Islanders game was a complete dud. We've had others this year, but nothing at quite that level of futility. There is no doubt that playing one, one game off, then a back to back with travel on the back end of the back to back is about the worst physiologic position teams in the NHL have, so that loss was going to be tough to avoid anyways. The no show hopefully leads to a push back game tonight. I can't help but think Darling's career here is on the ropes taking punches. 

 

In my book McE has already earned a spot, but if he is strong tonight it should be locked in. 

 

I've been on about it, but I'll say it again. Get Zykov in there. The organization has put him through the tough love process, now see if anything came of it. If so, we've got a guy who can score and go to the net. If not, we can move him on and not think twice about it. Doing this after a demoralizing win is the right time because of coach's hesitancy to move guys out of the line up after a win. Do it today. 

 

I still rest Foegele at some point, but maybe Anaheim and put him back in for the road trip. But that's just me. 

 

With games in LA, SanJose, and Anaheim upcoming, we really could use two points tonight. 

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Our game plan needs to be more than shoot from bad angles and 20+ feet out.

 

Price is too good for that.  Also, with Weber back their D has enough size and experience to clear the net.  

 

I expect a very spirited effort early from the squad based on the last performance.  Are we rewarded early and maintain the spirited effort or do we give up early goals and it breaks our back?

Edited by gocanes0506

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Bean will make his debut tonight.

 

Projected lineups from the motherland

 

Forwards

Foegele-Staal-Williams
Ferland-Aho-Teravainen
Svechnikov-Wallmark-Martinook
McGinn-Rask-Di Giuseppe

Defense

Slavin-Hamilton
de Haan-Faulk
Bean-van Riemsdyk

Goalies

McElhinney
Mrazek

 

i expect a heavy dose of Slavin & de Haan on the left side tonight. Bean will probably get 70+ O zone start % tonight.  More than likely his D zone starts will come after iced pucks.  

 

No Z though. We have 2 D based lines, one scoring line, and unexpectedly scoring line with this lineup.  We need more scoring though, I was hoping to see more Z. I assume we went with PDG because we are away and don’t have the last substitution.

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gocanes, I expect your correct about us being selective with Bean tonight. That would make sense but on the road we won't always be in complete control of the matchup. 

 

I hope Williams can continue to score now that he has found the net. We need that scoring

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13 minutes ago, OBXer said:

I hope Williams can continue to score now that he has found the net. We need that scoring

 As long as he's not -4 again I'm all for it.

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OK, here's a wild, completely off the cuff, highly unlikely, theory. This is building off of hints by SuperDave. This may be also missing something. So before I launch this ridiculous idea, did we have to call up Bean because Carrick had to go back down for some reason? If so, then never mind. If not, then why the Bean call up? Did we not like Carrick? 

 

So, IF we called up Bean after Carrick got only one game and did not have to, then why? Bean doesn't need NHL time yet. Arguably he could use more AHL simmering. And it's not that nice to just give Carrick one game that the team didn't even bother showing up for. It just feels odd or forced.

 

But what if Bean (or I guess even Carrick) was part of a deal, and the receiving team wants to see him play at least one NHL game first? Specifically...

 

If I'm Toronto, I'm looking to add to Pesce if I'm giving up Nylander. What a potentially potent return would Pesce and Bean be? RHD and LHD. Bean is a first rounder drafted for some offensive potential. We, on the other hand, are flush with D men, and hopefully are going to sign Fox too. Maybe we sweeten the pot even more with one of our second rounders. Yes, overpayment, but worth it. But even just Pesce plus Bean gives them two potentially high end D men one on each side. That's pretty good return IMO.

 

Bear in mind that these things never actually happen, Toronto will probably sign Nylander in the next 5 minutes, and I'm sure there is some other logical reason for Carrick only getting one game, but this one is much more fun. 

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1 minute ago, Whaler1 said:

 As long as he's not -4 again I'm all for it.

 

Details...details...details 😜

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Carrick can't skate, and looked pretty much like a pylon out there.  I know it's only a game, but seriously, I think it's pretty simple why he won't stick here.

 

Edited by coastal_caniac
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2 hours ago, remkin said:

why the Bean call up?

This puzzled me, too... Why not McKeown? RHD/LHD thing?

I thought it will be another (last?) chance for Zykov, but he is not playing... Seems he is just another (extra) PDG on the road.

Edited by Caniac514

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Id hope RB is playing the guys who gives us the best chance at 2pts, not sure if he knows which guys this is, but Im hoping..  AIso think the Briscoe Mongo Darling show is finally over... 

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