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Trade: W Nino Niederreiter for C Victor Rask (no joke)

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Maniscalco: Nino, what do you know about Carolina Hurricanes?

Nino: young team, exciting.  Martin Gerber said it is a great place and liked his time there.

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What I love about this move has been said by many above here. This is not the blockbuster move, but it so what? It does nothing to keep that from still happening, and as others have pointed out, it is an actual move rather than smoke and speculation. That and I just can't help but think we got a good player for a guy who may be done as an offensive guy.

 

NN may not be a top line messiah, but he is better than Rask, and thus makes the team better. It's not that the move clears payroll, but winning does not correlate with low payroll. Winning correlates with effective payroll in production of winning things per dollar. 

 

Just for fun and sort of mind-bending how much an NHL point can cost,

 

Bad year (this year):

 

NN: $128K/point

VR: $210K/point

 

Last 3 years:

 

NN:  $112K/point

VR:  $129K/point 

 

The total production is more important for a team in need, but in general teams need to get production for their money. 

 

This is even more important for teams that don't spend.

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I think I want to keep Ferland as much as anyone. I do think that NN does allow us flexibility on that though. If his demands are just too nuts, we have less need than we did for him, and frankly I'm not going to be anywhere near as upset now as I would have been.

 

However, if we do keep him, then we probably only need ONE more guy, the elusive D for O guy. Possibly two, but only if we think we need to upgrade Wallmark. 

 

A big question is whether or not we re-up J Williams. Is he done or does he want to keep playing, and if the latter, do we keep him? I want to put that separately actually. But if we let J Williams walk or retire, that frees up $4.5 million to offset keeping Ferland. 

 

Anyways, even without J Willy we have a top 9 of:

 

Aho, TT, Svech, Staal, Nino, Ferland, Necas, Walmark, NEW STUD. (Hence the only area needing upgrade could be Walmark, but not sure we need to). 

 

I know many are not sold on Necas. But I am, and this is my post. The NEW STUD spot cannot be overlooked. If we get the kind of dynamic younger player we could, that guy would fall in with Aho, Teravainen, Svech, Necas, and New Stud, as 5 potentially elite forwards. Add in the two way of Staal and the guys that hit and can score (Feland, Nino, (and Martinook on the 4th)), and that could be a nice blend of size, grit and skill. 

 

As Necas and Svech round into elite guys, this could be a powerhouse line up.  

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Just now, realmdrakkar said:

Now watch Rask go on a massive goal-scoring tear register a pulse start grinning like Skinner, in Minnesota.

Changed...no, mine's too far fetched.

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Also, as we look to our line up for next year, I know Foegele has not produced this year, but he is a rookie and absolutely the type of guy who could jump up substantially after an offseason. And yet, if we make the D for O and keep Ferland, Foegele is a 4th liner. I think this speaks to the potential depth we could have if we play it right.

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Not sure this means anything, but I saw/read a couple of times that NN has been very good in the analytics department for some time.

 

Don’t know if it is true or not but there it is.

 

I’m still in shock that we got out from under Rask’s contract and got NN in return.

 

Some people seem to be “meh” about this trade, and I don’t think NN is meant to be some sort of savior, but Rask was doing nothing out there. Of course I could be wrong but I just don’t see NN being a complete non-factor like Rask and this not being a fairly significant upgrade.

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

That, nor the links in it, say anything like what wscaniac did, that he wants $5 million and we'll only go 4. The only reference to any number at all was (parapharasing) "Will it be more than $6 million or less?"

Ferland wants Tom Wilson-level money, which is north of $5 million per year on a long-term deal.

 

https://thecanuckway.com/2019/01/16/vancouver-canucks-in-on-micheal-ferland/

 

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14 minutes ago, Kyrule said:

Some people seem to be “meh” about this trade, and I don’t think NN is meant to be some sort of savior, but Rask was doing nothing out there. Of course I could be wrong but I just don’t see NN being a complete non-factor like Rask and this not being a fairly significant upgrade.

I for one am ECSTATIC about this trade.  VR took up 4M in cap space and could be replaced by an AHL body without us noticing.  NN gives us actual production on the ice and makes us harder to play against, and, cannot be replaced by a AHL body without being noticed..  Is NN overpaid?  Perhaps,but he's at worst an overpaid contributor.  Rask, not so much.  

 

I hope Rask finds his game in MIN, because he was not getting it done here.

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3 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

Fine by me...PAY THE MAN

 

I am getting more and more comfortable with the thought of Wilson type money.  The team is just better with him.

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It’s an overpayment, but the supporting guys need to be enticed too...you can’t just keep throwing random dudes on the top line with Aho and Turbo.

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20 hours ago, wxray1 said:

Don't forget Staal.  Capfriendly buries him in temporary IR box.  He's at $6M per through '23.

Yeah forgot about our 6M dollar man!!!

 

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I was thinking maybe Fenton just overvalues centers. And then I read this piece from the Minnesota press about the trade and sure enough: 

 

“Potentially he could be a No. 2 or No. 3 center. He has the capability of playing the wing as well. My experience tells me that we can’t have enough centers. It’s something that we’re finding out in the league more and more.”

 

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/sports/hockey/4558570-wild-trade-nino-niederreiter-carolina-victor-rask-—-paul-fentons-first-major

 

Hey, Rask could be a third line center. But NN could be a second line winger. Also, that seems more likely. 

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The more I think about it, the more I just can't see how we lose this trade unless NN is a negative influence on teammates. I have no reason to think he is, just that it is just about the only way short of an injury that this is not a great move for us.

 

I get that it can be hard to guess which player will benefit more from a change of scenery. I am only going by the upside I've heard for years on NN as well as his actual production in every year aside from this one. But what we do know is the progression of Victor Rask. Since his one flash of offense, (and this is my only caveat), we've seen him struggle to maintain anything even close to that level offensively. We also know that he is slow by NHL standards. 

 

Since that flash of glory, Rask had 10 months of pedestrian offense BEFORE the hand injury, and 2 months since. 

 

I do think that Rask has either been coached or decided to play a defense first game. Personally I think it's because he's slow, and can't afford be caught deep, and with lack of confidence and loss of scoring touch has doubled down on getting back at all costs. I guess if Rask is turned loose he might find the mojo again. If Rask got to that game he started 2016 again, then this trade could go the other way.

 

However, as has been pointed out with other traded players, even if  he does, he probably would not have here. And also, NN was traded partly for not "playing the right way". I'm speculating, but usually that means defensively. Well they'll likely want Rask to "play the right way" too, and so it is very hard to see him finding that high offense level. Also, RB's plan was to turn players more loose, but it didn't budge Victor.

 

On the NN side. He clearly has proven more offense, and done so as recently as last year. 

 

Finally, while I know many turn their nose up on the dreaded +/- stat, I think there can be a story in there when things skew hard in one direction for a long time and within the same team. And with NN's case the stats are screaming something:

 

This year, NN is -11 and last on his team. But the past 3 years: #3, #6, and #5 on his team in plus/minus for a +40. (And my guess is that we have proprietary stats on NN that show more concrete proof that he plays the right way than +/-). 

 

Something changed this year. But this is a guy who has played the right way for years and then this year comes under heat gets on the wrong side of the coach and is struggling across the board. Unless that thing is an injury, this can be turned around more likely that Rask can.

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9 minutes ago, remkin said:

The more I think about it, the more I just can't see how we lose this trade unless NN is a negative influence on teammates. I have no reason to think he is, just that it is just about the only way short of an injury that this is not a great move for us.

 

 

I think Minnesota has so many hybrid center/wingers with no true centers. Their GM seems to think he can play 2/3 C.  If that is the case either Waddell is one heck of a used car salesman in his turtlenecks or Minnesota lacks true centers.  We were one team capable of taking on Nino's cap hit. 

 

This should be a good trade for us. RBA will want Nino to get back to hitting and fore checking more than the last 2 seasons.  Maybe he can get back to his previous play.   

Edited by gocanes0506

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1 hour ago, Kyrule said:

Not sure this means anything, but I saw/read a couple of times that NN has been very good in the analytics department for some time.

 

Don’t know if it is true or not but there it is.

 

 

Swiss education, especially in Math, is no joke.  I wouldn't be surprised.

 

He comes across well spoken and pretty serious in his interview.  As for the serious part, not sure if that is good or bad. 

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

What I love about this move has been said by many above here. This is not the blockbuster move, but it so what? It does nothing to keep that from still happening, and as others have pointed out, it is an actual move rather than smoke and speculation. That and I just can't help but think we got a good player for a guy who may be done as an offensive guy.

 

NN may not be a top line messiah, but he is better than Rask, and thus makes the team better. It's not that the move clears payroll, but winning does not correlate with low payroll. Winning correlates with effective payroll in production of winning things per dollar. 

 

 

When it's arguable that even every callup has been more effective than Rask, then the simple ability to move his contract and return a player of any offensive prowess makes the deal a success with neither even haven taken the ice. I've kinda always been of the school of removing dead weight can at times take on the quality of "blockbuster". And recently have begun to think that Staal falls into that expendable area. And making the team better as you say, does at times mean 1 player at a time. I consider Ferland to be the personification of that way of thinking, not so much in terms of scoring numbers, though he's been solid in contributing that way(PP and 5 on 5), but in all else he brings, in almost singlehandedly changing this franchise's perception of ultra softness into one that garners at least a modicum of physical respect. And if Wilson can get respect in terms of money on a club with far more offensive firepower and scattered physicality , then surely on our club that physicality carries its weight in what should end up on Ferl's offer sheet. I guess I just value his type of game on our club mostly lacking in the physical part of it, at about 12-15 goals and 30-35 points per season. I consider that to use your words, "effective payroll". PAY the man. 

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I'll join in along with everyone.

Great Trade.

Can't believe we got anything for Rask.  ALL the Call ups have been better ..

Time will tell but this seems like a great move for the team.

No not the big move we all want but .. it sure seems like the Canes are better after this trade.  We will see !

Now Sign Ferland- Trade Hamilton  for a nice return.  

 

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3 hours ago, cc said:

Ferland wants Tom Wilson-level money, which is north of $5 million per year on a long-term deal.

 

https://thecanuckway.com/2019/01/16/vancouver-canucks-in-on-micheal-ferland/

 

That doesn't mean he doesn't want a lot more. That's been the speculation here, regarding why the org and Ferland are reportedly "far, far apart" a couple of weeks ago. Yes, it could go in the other direction, i.e., he wants a little above 5 and the org doesn't want to exceed 4. All that matters to me is that the org would be cheaping out no matter which is the case.

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54 minutes ago, caryhurricanes said:

Now Sign Ferland- Trade Hamilton Faulk for a nice return.  

I'm with you on everything but this. I think if we really want to change the culture here, we have to finish the job of moving out everybody who has been here five years or more.

 

Faulk and Jordo are the last two, and Faulk's elevated play on the intended side of the puck (for a defenseman) may ameliorate the concerns of a prospective trade partner who is playoff-bound and looking to shore up their back-end D immediately, and have D-oriented forward with playoff experience to step in if needed anytime between now through the playoffs. (cough*JR*cough). We'll take Evgeny, sure Jim. :) I could also see us offering both to Ott for Duchene, even though the Sens aren't playoff-bound. 

Edited by top-shelf-1
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