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LakeLivin

What's the most the Canes should pay Ferland?

What's the most the Canes should pay Ferland?  

46 members have voted

  1. 1. What's the max Canes should pay Ferland? Assume AAV for 6 years.



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5 hours ago, hopper915 said:

Looking at CapFriendly, we are currently last in the league for salary cap at just over $64mil. Current cap space is just over $38mil. 

Our defensive core are locked up. We have $27.6mil tied up on our defense and $21.9mil on offense.

I've projected hypothetical bumps in pay for players who are UFAs/RFAs/

UFAs

Justin Williams - Projected Cap hit next season $3-4mil.

Jordan Martinook - Projected Cap hit next season $2mil.

Michael Ferland - Projected Cap hit next season $6mil.

Greg McKegg - Projected Cap hit next season $800k.

Curtis McElhinney - Unknown, don't know if we would keep him after this season due to age.

Petr Mrazek - Projected Cap hit next season $2-3mil.

RFAs

Saku Maenalanen - Projected Cap hit next season $1mil.

Sebastian Aho - Projected Cap hit next season $9mil.

Brock McGinn - Projected Cap hit next season $1mil.

Haydn Fleury - Projected Cap hit next season $1mil.

Alex Nedeljkovic - Projected Cap hit next season $1mil.

 

If we keep/re-sign everyone would only use approximately $27-28mil and would still leave the team with around $10mil in cap space to add if necessary, so paying Ferland what he maybe looking for would not tie the team's hands, especially if they do not bring back Williams.

I think we cut 6-7 million from the number because we trade a RHD and buyout/ trade at 50% retained Darling. I’d expect Ferland will be traded, + 6 million.

 

i also think we keep 2 of the 3 of McGinn, Maenalenan, and Keggar.  We save another million.

 

it’ll be interesting to see if Williams wants to come back.  

 

Hopefully we use the 14 million difference from keeping everyone to get a top 6 center, top 6 winger, and we’ll have at least 900k tied up in Checkers on the roster (Necas).  One of the top 6 will be with a trade partner for a RHD (probably Toronto because they won’t be able to afford everyone). I don’t see us going past 70 million without serious fan increase.  I’d be surprised if we got over 67 million before that happens.

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I really think you need to look at the Tom Wilson deal as the framework for a Ferland deal.  Ferland isn't the public enemy that Wilson is, but they both play physical games and are legit scorers.  Wilson had 14 goals and 21 assists in his year prior to his current deal of 6 years at $5.17M average.  Last year, Ferland had 21 goals and 20 assists.  This year, he's on pace for about 25 goals and 25 assists.  Ferland's ask has to be in that same ballpark as Wilson's.  Some GM is going to give him that. 

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This question--I get the desire to get everybody's take, but there's a lot of nuance that a poll can't account for, so I'm not using it.

 

I would feel best about a deal at 5.4 x 6, for Ferland (or less). That said, my absolute top end would be 5.8 million x 6 years, front-loaded as a carrot, but no NTC of any kind, i.e., he has to earn his spot every time out, and not take it for granted.

 

s_d mentioned Tom Wilson as a comp. He has a modified NTC, and that had to cost him something in salary, albeit not the additional .7 million I'm willing to go on Ferland. What gets him closer in my view is that, in addition to what s_d noted about him having the total package for a power winger, he plays clean in comparison to Wilson, who in terms of his physical game, is really little more than a hyena crossed with a cheap-shot artist.

 

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This is not really my area, but looking at Cap Friendly I can say just scanning the forward names that make $5.5 million AAV or more, they are some pretty established offensive guys. Even $5 million or higher really. 

 

I guess one could point to Wilson and say, here's the rare guy who is a physical threat and can also score, but he does seem to be overpaid based on production. That said, Ferland produces well more than Wilson. Ferland is a a roughly 26 goal, 50 point pace this year, and around 23/46 if averaging last year and this year. 

 

The guy can finish too. The eyeball agrees that this is not a fluke. He is not super slick, but he is more skilled than say Martinook (who is,  himself more skilled than I expected, but not to Ferland's level). 

 

When we consider he is UFA eligible, which increases his price, and he can play on the top line as well as create the physical we've been looking for, we would be well off overpaying IF the guy wants to be here. It seems that $5.5 million AAV, especially for a deal with some term ought to be appealing. Heck it's more than TT got.  

 

I hope he really likes it here and we can get him. I really see him, NN, and Martinook bringing the physical, while still contributing points and meshing in with the skilled guys. 

 

The one thing we just can't know for sure, is how he feels about playing here for the next several years. There have been guys who are glad to be here, and guys who couldn't wait to get out of here. The talk of testing UFA could be a lot of things, but one could be a negotiating tactic. If it is, there is still a chance we could keep him. I'll land on that for now.

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5 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

I honestly think the biggest issue is does he want to be here.  

 

YEP. If a player don't want to be here, it don't matter how much dosh you offer.

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My limit would be $5M for 6 years, anything more puts me way out of my comfort zone. I would prefer something closer to 4 years at $5.2M. I think Ferland is good enough to fill out a top line, but not good enough to build a top line around. He is the ideal type of player to play with someone like Skinner, opens enough room for them to work while having enough skill to be a threat.

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On 1/22/2019 at 11:59 AM, top-shelf-1 said:

This question--I get the desire to get everybody's take, but there's a lot of nuance that a poll can't account for, so I'm not using it.

 

I would feel best about a deal at 5.4 x 6, for Ferland (or less). That said, my absolute top end would be 5.8 million x 6 years, front-loaded as a carrot, but no NTC of any kind, i.e., he has to earn his spot every time out, and not take it for granted.

 

s_d mentioned Tom Wilson as a comp. He has a modified NTC, and that had to cost him something in salary, albeit not the additional .7 million I'm willing to go on Ferland. What gets him closer in my view is that, in addition to what s_d noted about him having the total package for a power winger, he plays clean in comparison to Wilson, who in terms of his physical game, is really little more than a hyena crossed with a cheap-shot artist.

 

As previously mentioned, it's tough to get extremely precise in a poll like this; just too many variables.  You're towards the top end of the rest of the Canes fans, and that's about all I think we're looking for.

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hes not worth signing long term. not that i dont love his style ive been waiting for the canes to get tougher. they have played soft for years not ever since gelson left. Ferland will be hard to replace theres only like 5 guys in the league that play that style and have the skill to score 20 goals. but you cant commit 5 years to a guy with concussion problems. 

that being said id rather pay Ferland 5mil for 5 years then have signed Martinook. its embarrassing seeing him on the second or third line. hes 4th line at best no Chad LaRose for sure. haha

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I'm personally hoping Ferland hits the market, get's a bit of a reality check and we swoop in. Happened with Cole once before.

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I hope ur right. but he will get 5.5mil if he wants it's definitely out there for him (Vancouver). were he goes will show if he wants to win a cup or just get paid. 

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I still haven’t voted, but I know his value is dropping fast as of late. 

 

He looks disinterested. He is less physical and less dangerous offensively.

 

I don’t know how much, or if he is hurting. Whether he loses interest/motivation when not with top players. Maybe he is just bummed that he is staying put for now. Maybe he is just protecting himself before his big payday. Maybe this is just who he is (disappears for stretches).

 

Who knows, but if he is trying to play through pain and is only hurting his own value, then that is highly commendable.

 

If it’s any other reason, that’s not good.

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Kyrule, while I agree that Ferland's play seems to have quieted, I'm of the opinion that it has so because he wants to protect himself for his upcoming contract, which seems contradictory to what most players do to maximize it. This player's value however differs from most forwards as he's more of a hybrid in the sense that he does offer a scoring threat along with physicality, and the latter attribute constantly puts him in harm's way. Too much of the latter puts him in concussive territory and the next BIG contract goes out the window. But, as you've pointed out, who knows?

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6 minutes ago, remkin said:

Odd for a guy trying to protect himself to go out and get in fights. 

True that, but maybe he ultimately is a "team !st" kind of standup guy, and thought at that point in the game, it would help? Also, I'd suppose that in a fight, he could control better what happens than in a collision on the ice?

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3 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

True that, but maybe he ultimately is a "team !st" kind of standup guy, and thought at that point in the game, it would help? Also, I'd suppose that in a fight, he could control better what happens than in a collision on the ice?

I've never been in a hockey fight, but it sure seems like that would be hard to control. I think for a guy not that far removed from a concussion it could be even riskier. Even ex goons talk about the apprehension of getting in a fight, and guys that don't have to almost never do. 

 

Ferland has been around the net and almost scored a bunch of times. 

 

Personally, I'm not too worried. 

 

Now his value? At one point we were asking a first rounder and prospect, which frankly I thought was too much. But once he cooled and Panarin, Stone and Duchene became possibly on the rental market, Ferland probably dropped to returning a second rounder. 

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I missed the fight.  Can someone give me a brief summary? Who initiated it and why, outcome, anything else of interest?  Coming off a concussion, fighting doesn't seem like a very smart move unless really warranted.

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22 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

I missed the fight.  Can someone give me a brief summary? Who initiated it and why, outcome, anything else of interest?  Coming off a concussion, fighting doesn't seem like a very smart move unless really warranted.

https://www.hockeyfights.com/players/12980 has videos of all his fights 

 

Normally I think his fights have been very well timed given the situation but his last 2 just seemed like fights for the hell of having fights. 

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1 hour ago, legend-1 said:

https://www.hockeyfights.com/players/12980 has videos of all his fights 

 

Normally I think his fights have been very well timed given the situation but his last 2 just seemed like fights for the hell of having fights. 

 

Thanks.  Yeah, I was expecting it after we were down 2-0 to spark the team, or after a questionable hit by the Devils.  Not sure what that one was about.  Perhaps the last 2 were "marketing", i.e., displaying toughness might help maximize $s in his next contract?  

Edited by LakeLivin

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2 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Thanks.  Yeah, I was expecting it after we were down 2-0 to spark the team, or after a questionable hit by the Devils.  Not sure what that one was about.  Perhaps the last 2 were "marketing", i.e., displaying toughness might help maximize $s in his next contract?  

Lake, freeze it at :03 and find both players, then watch how it started. They looked at each other and decided to go while they were still, like, 20 feet apart. Looks to me like two guys with an old score to settle. Gabriel had cups of coffee both of the last two years with Minnesota, a Western team like Calgary, so maybe their paths crossed over there. This looked like the fulfillment of a "Hey, next time we see each other..." situation. Gabriel is 25 and signed a one-year deal with Jersey after trying out the FA market. He's played just six for the Devils so far.

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
typo

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3 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Lake, freeze it at :03 and find both players, then watch how it started. They looked at each other and decided to go while they were still, like, 20 feet apart. Looks to me like two guys with an old score to settle. Gabriel had cups of coffee both of the last two years with Minnesota, a Western team like Calgary, so maybe their paths crossed over there. This looked like the fulfillment of a "Hey, next time we see each other..." situation. Gabriel is 25 and signed a one-year deal with Jersey after trying out the FA market. He's played just six for the Devils so far.

 

Must have been something serious cause it just doesn't seem to make sense for a player of Ferland's caliber to entertain a player of Gabriel's.  Apparently Gabriel has a reputation of being willing to drop the gloves ["Loves to play a physical brand of hockey, and has the size to back it up. Is willing to drop the gloves for his teammates"] .  Possible that it was prearranged?  Ferland hasn't been contributing much offensively lately and I could see a bottom pair guy like Gabriel wanting to burnish his reputation with a new team. 

 

edit: never mind, Tripp just explained it.  Gabriel slashed Svech in warmups.

Edited by LakeLivin
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12 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

edit: never mind, Tripp just explained it.  Gabriel slashed Svech in warmups.

Yeah, I heard that too. Gabriel sounds like a world-class loser.

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