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Offseason Talk 2019

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Working off of my observations, stats, gocanes' rankings, and realm's observations, I'll take this crack at my take on what Checkers have a shot to make the team out of camp.

 

Necas. Goodnight everybody! 

 

OK, I do think that spots could be tight and the most inside of tracks belongs to Necas. If I had to bet on one guy, it would be him. Just my love of his speed and skill? Well yes, but not just that. Necas could have played in the NHL last year. I'd bet that for most Canes' teams of the past 10 years he would have. The fact that we were able to have the year we had while still letting him get a full year in Charlotte, and win a Calder cup in the mix, was even better. But Necas not only looks the part, but as a rookie, still adjusting to small ice, he produced. His regular season .81 ppg was bested only by old veteran Poturalski. (Jurco, in his 6th AHL season basically tied him). He was .72 ppg in the playoffs. 

 

Necas was a very highly rated prospect, and the skill is evident. What excites me most, is that, like Svech, you can see how good he is, but you can also see how good he can be, and probably will be. This is a guy I would predict will grow in his point production for at least his first few years in the NHL. Using the previously referenced league conversion ratios, Necas' .81 ppg should translate into .38 ppg in the NHL, or about 30 points. I think this is a bit low, but would be good third line production from a winger. I'd put Necas on 35 plus points because he appears to my eye to have skill well beyond the AHL, even if his production was not off the charts there.

 

After Necas, it gets muddier, but there are some really good prospects.

 

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Ha! But I wasn't finished! I just wanted to divide the post up.

 

In order of the impression that they made this season, the non Necas, non grizzled AHL veteran forwards:

 

Geekie. He is of good size (6'2"). He had a strong year but a very strong end of year and playoffs. IMO he pushed himself to the top of the non-Necas list with that playoff run. 18 points in 19 games. The only rookie in that strata. Geekie was a third rounder, but a high third rounder at #5 in 2017. Still, he'd be another later round success if he hits. Geekie was #11 in points for 18 year olds in the WHL his draft year, but his 1.25 ppg was not far off of Cody Glass or Nolan Patrick (1.36/1.39). He has had scoring chops. Maybe not top of league, but still there.

 

Since Geekie was a rookie, was not a first rounder, not as elite as Necas, and only really came on with the points at the end, I think he'll start back in Charlotte. But since he was a rookie it also makes his production that much more impressive and he is definitely going to be an early call up candidate and has a nice long term chance.

 

Gauthier. First rounders are generally going to get a look. I've thought for a long time that Gauthier has high end hands and skills with the puck, and is obviously physically ready, but might be frankly, a bit low on the hockey IQ part. In my years watching prospects I've come to value hockey IQ more and more, and Gauthier struggles there. This is why I was never on the bandwagon of him hitting the NHL year one or even soon thereafter. But neither am I on the "he's a bust" bandwagon. 

 

Gauthier is a goal scorer. He was #2 on the team in goals, and one of only 3 players to pass 20 goals (he hit 27). He was only 3 off of Saarela's 30. He had a strong run in the playoffs (tied with Necas and Brown for 6th in playoff goals) and Jayson Shaya couldn't stop gushing about how good he looked in the playoffs. In my limited watching, I saw some sweet passes and high end plays, but still some passes to nowhere. It will be interesting to see what he can do in the off season and in camp, but I still think there just won't be room on the big club. The problem he will have IMO, is that newbies on the NHL squad have to do the little things well to not screw up and get the coach's confidence rolling him out there when goals might not come at first. This could be an issue for Gauthier, who might just have to start putting up massive AHL numbers to get that shot in the NHL. Just a guess.

 

Saarela. This one is tougher. All around it's Roy. But Roy, who looks really good out there, just can't quite goose the numbers enough. Saarela is a pure goal scorer. He has the best shot on the team. He scored 30 goals. Last year's 30 goal scorers Zykov and Foegele both got NHL shots. The couple of games I saw of Saarela in the playoffs, though, he seemed a bit weak on the puck and peripheral. The one game he got up with the Canes he was not even slightly noticeable, though that's not really even fair, as it was a playoff game vs Washington. He has a shot that can beat NHL goalies, so he probably gets another look. Also, he's getting a bit long in the AHL tooth, and its put up or forget it time. He could come in and pot some goals in camp and get a good look. Problem is that there just won't be many spaces most likely, and like with Gauthier, can he earn ice time if not scoring? 

 

Roy. Long have had high hopes for this kid. He looks solid and has been a key piece of a lot of lower level winning. But IMO, his .52 ppg is not enough to get a sniff in the NHL unless he has an offseaon epiphany and camp breakout. He is also going to need to pop his production next year, or risk being a wash out. 

 

Kuokkanen: .79 ppg was a step up from his .67 ppg as a rookie (remember Necas' .81 ppg rookie). He was able to not look out of place in some NHL games before that rookie season. He is a smart player. His chances though were really hurt by his injury pulling him out well before the Calder Cup run. I take realm's note here, that he might be an offense only cherry picker of sorts. If true this would really hurt his stock because his AHL production is borderline for an NHL shot to begin with. May well end up being a victim of a too rich prospect pool. 

 

After these guys I'd just throw in Jack Drury, who had a nice year at Harvard. Not for this year, but as a good prospect. There are other guys in the system who could still break out too.

 

But for our team, this year, I see Necas as the only guy out of camp. Simply because there just won't be spots. Especially if Williams returns and we pick up a forward. We've still got McGinn, Maenalanen, Martinook, Wallmark et all. 

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7 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

 

That list did consist of roster decisions and contract decisions.

 

Im sure McKeown and a couple of others will want to test the market to see if they could get a one-way deal with someone else.  If they don’t, I hope we bring them back as organizational depth.  

 

Unfortunately the off-season doesn’t do much of futures for now deals cuz I feel like we could make 2 and still have great depth.

 

I think Gauthier’s chance to make the squad will be determined in camp unlike Necas who is penciled in at this point. If Goat can be physical and a solid net front presence consistently, he could make the roster next season.  He has a tendency to disappear on the ice and that is why he isn’t a sure thing.  Gauthier’s chances are based on Williams too.

I would venture to say that most had Necas penciled in for this past season about this time last year.  Few would have predicted Foegele would come to camp and make his case to become a regular contributor.  That is what is exciting about the group in Charlotte.  It is not one guy knocking on the door, but several, and different style players also.  Between 4th line hustlers like Patrick Brown to power forwards like Gauthier to finesse players like Saarela to skilled passers like Necas and Geekie to potential PP QB's like Bean and goalies like Ned to defensive Men like McKeown, there are a lot of bodies who will be chasing jobs.  Can't wait to see who steps up.

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On 6/14/2019 at 12:10 PM, remkin said:

Working off of my observations, stats, gocanes' rankings, and realm's observations, I'll take this crack at my take on what Checkers have a shot to make the team out of camp.

 

Necas. Goodnight everybody! 

 

OK, I do think that spots could be tight and the most inside of tracks belongs to Necas. If I had to bet on one guy, it would be him. Just my love of his speed and skill? Well yes, but not just that. Necas could have played in the NHL last year. I'd bet that for most Canes' teams of the past 10 years he would have. The fact that we were able to have the year we had while still letting him get a full year in Charlotte, and win a Calder cup in the mix, was even better. But Necas not only looks the part, but as a rookie, still adjusting to small ice, he produced. His regular season .81 ppg was bested only by old veteran Poturalski. (Jurco, in his 6th AHL season basically tied him). He was .72 ppg in the playoffs. 

 

Necas was a very highly rated prospect, and the skill is evident. What excites me most, is that, like Svech, you can see how good he is, but you can also see how good he can be, and probably will be. This is a guy I would predict will grow in his point production for at least his first few years in the NHL. Using the previously referenced league conversion ratios, Necas' .81 ppg should translate into .38 ppg in the NHL, or about 30 points. I think this is a bit low, but would be good third line production from a winger. I'd put Necas on 35 plus points because he appears to my eye to have skill well beyond the AHL, even if his production was not off the charts there.

 

After Necas, it gets muddier, but there are some really good prospects.

 

I want to be excited about Necas, but then I realize he only scored 16 goals in 60something games at the AHL level.  I'm sure he will be good but def not the big goal scorer we need.   Hopefully that will be Svech .   Necas did have 30plus assists so maybe more of a set up guy.  

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15 minutes ago, Danimal38 said:

I want to be excited about Necas, but then I realize he only scored 16 goals in 60something games at the AHL level.  I'm sure he will be good but def not the big goal scorer we need.   Hopefully that will be Svech .   Necas did have 30plus assists so maybe more of a set up guy.  

I  I think it’s very hard to get a read on Necas’s  potential at the NHL level in terms of points.  He’s definitely more  of a playmaker than a goal scorer. 

 

Just watching him play though, I really get the feeling that he will increase this point production over 3 to 4 years in the NHL. Within a few years he could be elite. And it could be much sooner if he gains over the summer.

 

 The one thing I agree with though, is that we cannot count on Necas as the guy this season.  I did pencil him in for strong third line winger points. But nothing more than that. 

 

I still think we need another guy.

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1 minute ago, remkin said:

I  I think it’s very hard to get a read on Necas’s  potential at the NHL level in terms of points.  He’s definitely more  of a playmaker than a goal scorer. 

 

Just watching him play though, I really get the feeling that he will increase this point production over 3 to 4 years in the NHL. Within a few years he could be elite. And it could be much sooner if he gains over the summer.

 

 The one thing I agree with though, is that we cannot count on Necas as the guy this season.  I did pencil him in for strong third line winger points. But nothing more than that. 

 

I still think we need another guy.

Absolutely true.  Anyone who is banking on Necas leading the team over the hump is not being realistic and putting too much pressure on this young man.  If he has a good summer and a good training camp, he COULD make the team.  With the depth and the number of prospects he is competing against, someone may come to camp and elevate their game, as Foegele did this past year, and earn a spot ahead of him.  Geekie for example.  Depending upon need, Gauthier maybe.  Not saying he won't make the team, but now that Svech is all grown up, maybe Martinook needs to take Necas under his wing.

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22 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Absolutely true.  Anyone who is banking on Necas leading the team over the hump is not being realistic and putting too much pressure on this young man.  If he has a good summer and a good training camp, he COULD make the team.  With the depth and the number of prospects he is competing against, someone may come to camp and elevate their game, as Foegele did this past year, and earn a spot ahead of him.  Geekie for example.  Depending upon need, Gauthier maybe.  Not saying he won't make the team, but now that Svech is all grown up, maybe Martinook needs to take Necas under his wing.

I  actually agree about the potential for someone to wow in camp.  I personally feel Necas has a pretty wide inside track, but anything can happen in camp and sometimes does. It’s pretty amazing how much younger guys can improve in the off-season.

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After reading Waddell's statement about our goalie situation, not sure who really available to us right now. Nedeljkovic had a good year in the AHL but definitely think he would be the #2 this year. So, with that being said, who do think will return and/or who should we be looking at? I have been looking around the league and I don't think Waddell is going to fork out over $3 million on a "hope so" goalie. Anyway, thanks in advance for your thoughts. You guys seem to know your stuff...at least better than me!  :jester:

Edited by Goalieman_nc

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Goalie situation is a little concerning.  Why don't they want to sign here?  because of Bales bailing?  TD and DW being extra cheap?  Or they just want to test FA and see what they can get and circle back to us?  

I'm sure Ned was excited to hear that news. That is the upside to me is that I feel Ned should get an opportunity to start 15 games or so this season and have a chance to take the number one spot if he does well(Are Mac and Mraz worried about this kid coming up this year and taking the spot?)  Ithat doesn't happen if both Mraz and Mac sign.  Either way, kind of concerning that we may have another "trial signing" and our "AHL"er as our goaltenders next year.  One day this goalies situation has to be solved, I thought we at least had a short term fix but I guess not.  

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I just posted on the FA thread, but short answer is I don't think Mac was ever going to come back - he has too many teams interested in him as a backup and no chance of being signed as a #1. He fell into our lap last year on the waiver wire. That doesn’t mean he wants to finish his career in Raleigh (though it would be nice if he did). Your comment about wanting to see what is out there applies to Mrazek. Until the last week before FA starts, he doesn’t really know what someone else may offer him. Any offer from the Canes may look better once he sees what others are actually willing to offer. Remember he did not start the number of games of a true #1 last year and has never strung together 2 straight years of high level production. What he hopes is out there and what really is may not be the same.

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Unless I missed it, I'm doubting we ever even gave Mac an offer. We'd need to know whose starting to give Mac an offer. If for some reason we gotta go with another project, we know first hand if the project falters we can't give the reigns to Mac we'd need Ned in that situation. If we've got a solid #1 Mac's a great option because unless tragedy struck he would only have a 20-25 game workload which is perfect for him.

 

I personally would be unable to offer Mac anything unless I knew who was my likely starter.

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The goalies want to be paid.  Can't blame them, especially Mac.  Somebody will pay.

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1 hour ago, legend-1 said:

Unless I missed it, I'm doubting we ever even gave Mac an offer. We'd need to know whose starting to give Mac an offer. If for some reason we gotta go with another project, we know first hand if the project falters we can't give the reigns to Mac we'd need Ned in that situation. If we've got a solid #1 Mac's a great option because unless tragedy struck he would only have a 20-25 game workload which is perfect for him.

 

I personally would be unable to offer Mac anything unless I knew who was my likely starter.

 

That is how I read the chicken bones.  Got to solve the 1G first.  Mac doesn't fix that.  While Mac was great, I have to think they are penciling Ned in for one of the slots next year, and hoping to resign Petr to hopefully work a 1A/1B crease.  Petr probably knows this and would rather be looked at as the future rather than slowly breaking in the new guy.  I can't blame him for wanting to see what the market bears.  It's not like the Canes have a lot of options to look at before he gets the chance.

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With Bales bolting to Buffalo I will bet that one of Mraz or McE ends up there. Just a hunch.  Waddell said if we don't sign our goalies that NED will get a shot but I would think that would be as a backup. We will need to go get a goalie. I have no idea who that will be or how much we will spend. I'm watching this unfold.  .In Carolina, If it ain't one thing it's  another  always goalies

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NHL voters can go do the anatomically impossible...

B’s GM for GM of the year over DW?  What a crock!

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16 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

NHL voters can go do the anatomically impossible...

B’s GM for GM of the year over DW?  What a crock!

No surprise. We won’t get any love.

 

Svech was 9th on the rookie list.

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10 minutes ago, hopper915 said:

Looks like we may lose both Raz and Mac.

 

Hurricanes not optimistic about signing Mrazek, McElhinney, says GM

https://www.nhl.com/news/petr-mrazek-curtis-mcelhinney-will-likely-become-free-agents/c-307903352

 

 

Been discussing this for the past 24 hours in the trade/FA thread 

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I know most don't care about NHL 20, but I figured you might enjoy knowing their putting the storm surge in.

 

 

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15 hours ago, wxray1 said:

The goalies want to be paid.  Can't blame them, especially Mac.  Somebody will pay.

I really don't think this is the case. I think Mac, as a 36-year-old who just saw his first start in the SCP, would be tickled pink with a one-year, million-dollar deal. In Toronto. For about a month after we picked him up, in every interview, he looked like a deer in the headlights: Stunned.

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I really don't think this is the case. I think Mac, as a 36-year-old who just saw his first start in the SCP, would be tickled pink with a one-year, million-dollar deal. In Toronto. For about a month after we picked him up, in every interview, he looked like a deer in the headlights: Stunned.

And the frustrating part is that Toronto, even if up against the Cap, and close to Cap hell will find some loose change lying around to pay him the $1mil, while us red headed stepchildren pine away and wring our collective hands? Ah life, you gotta love it.

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