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Offseason Talk 2019

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2 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

A thought on Ryan Dzingle. If ever there was an area and culture that matched a player, it is Raleigh and Ryan Dzingle. Think on it, a player who confirms that the feeling about him was that he could not compete in the NHL, and the town and area of Raleigh which is perpetually derided as a "hick town" not appreciative of hockey. A match made in heaven. Welcome Ryan Dzingle. Shortly when we know your #, I intend to order a new jersey.

 

His fiance is a professional golfer, which also can't hurt with respect to the area.

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

I just tuned in on my ride home and got the chills! We have a cup. As your name says!

 

By pure chance, I tuned in and heard the last 15 minutes.  Chills and tears for me too!

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15 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Welcome Ryan Dzingle. Shortly when we know your #, I intend to order a new jersey.

 

He’s going to wear #18.

 

Haula is #56.

 

The Canes already posted pictures of their jerseys, the black ones which from what I am hearing might be our new home jersey.

 

 

.

Edited by Kyrule
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I didn't realize that Forsberg is also undergoing arbitration.  Dates from CapFriendly:

Brock McGinn - July 20

Anton Forsberg - August 4

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An excerpt on Dzingel:  TheHockeyNews on Dzingel

 

"He’s long been a highly accurate shooter at 15.0 percent across his 268 NHL games, so the finishing ability appears to be sustainable. He’s a strong bet to crest 20 goals again. Among 337 forwards to log at least 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 over the past two seasons, he’s 107th in points per 60 minutes but just 230th in shots per 60 minutes, so he could really break out if he could find a way to shoot more. The Hurricanes drive possession much better than the lowly Senators have in recent seasons, especially thanks to an elite D-corps moving pucks up quickly, so there’s a path to more shots – and threatening for 30 goals – depending on where Dzingel lands in the lineup."

Edited by LakeLivin

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3 hours ago, Kyrule said:

 

He’s going to wear #18.

 

Haula is #56.

 

The Canes already posted pictures of their jerseys, the black ones which from what I am hearing might be our new home jersey.

 

 

.

Always loved the black and wanted them as our home jerseys. Great move.

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1 hour ago, slapshot02 said:

Always loved the black and wanted them as our home jerseys. Great move.

Anything about white jersey? I've heard that they've planned to redesign but no news since the end of the season.

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2 hours ago, slapshot02 said:

Always loved the black and wanted them as our home jerseys. Great move.

What would the reds be? Can they be the away version, or the alternates? I love the black, but the red sightless eye is really the team's logo. Hard to envision the blacks as the home jersey for that reason, but TD and this bunch of jerks love to shake things up.

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OK, I have a minute so time to try to reasonably project our scoring for next year. To cut to the punchline, we should be a top 10 scoring team, and could end up closer to top 5.

 

Based on our depth, as well as skill at the top, we are in very good shape for scoring goals, arguably the best in years. Given a pretty strong D, I really think our ability to get back in the playoffs will come down to goaltending. 

 

Before the off-season moves, particularly for Haula and Dzingle, and in light of J Williams possible retirement, it seemed that we were candidates for the dreaded regression that happens to a lot of wild card teams getting in unexpectedly. Add the questions in goal and it seemed a bit dicey say before the draft, to predict our return to the playoffs. Not anymore.

 

Now, we are actually pretty loaded up front, and on D. If Mrazek plays like the guy who finished the season last year, and Reimer bounces back or Ned is ready, this team should be able to get back in. And possibly comfortably. 

 

Before I post the actual analysis, the caveat that I know things won't play out the way it's listed. It's insane to try to predict what one player will produce let alone an entire team. The first time I did this exercise years ago, just about the entire team, led by our star Eric Staal, came out and laid eggs. Over half the forwards couldn't even hit their average years. It was not pleasant. That could surely happen. But with Brind'Amour at the helm, I will bet it doesn't. 

 

But another thing we have this year more than any year in over a decade is serious depth, especially if Justin Williams returns. I have us with 14 forwards that can reasonably put in 15 goals if given the ice time. They won't all get the ice time, so I have tried to account for that in different ways, but what it means is that if a guy or two go down, we have guys who can produce in their place. No one can replace Aho's goals, TT's elite playmaking and probably Svech if he steps up, but just about anyone else can be at least partially covered. There are no low-level AHL guys getting ice time due to thin depth. In fact there will be good NHL players that will be scratched regularly. That depth should really bolster team scoring even with injuries. 

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Here are my estimates of goals for our forwards. IMO most are conservative. Only Foegele and Svech (and in some models Necas) are projected beyond their historical NHL production. Only Aho is pegged to match a career year. 

 

1. Aho: 30 goals. Aho put up 30 last year and was injured for the last 20 games. He put up 29 the previous year, so this is not a stretch. My guess is he hits 35.

2. Svech: 25 goals. This is probably low. He put up 20 last year at 18 and on the third line. He came on at the end. I could see 30 easily. 

3. Dzingle: 24 goals. Didn't expect him this high? He put up 26 last year including cooling down on a poor fit Columbus team. He put up 24 the year before. 

4. Nino: 22 goals. This is his 4 year average and they've all been right there. If he finds the chemistry of his play with us he could put up 30. 34 goal pace here.

5. Turbo: 22 goals. Teravainen is a playmaker. But he potted 21 and 23 the last two years. 22 is the average. 

6. Haula: 20 goals. Haula put in 29 goals in 76 games his last full season. He is coming off injury, and hit 15 previous, so his possible range is huge (15-30 goals). 

7. Staal: 19 goals: Staal pots 19 or so goals or that pace every year for 4 seasons in a row. I still think he could hit 25, but he has not done it as a Cane yet. 

8. J Williams: 15 goals. Williams has been right on 19 goals for 6 straight years, with 16 being his low. I'm being conservative for age. He could easily hit 20.

9. Foegele: 15 goals. Here I'm projecting. He hit 10 last year as a rookie, but came on at the end, and in the playoffs. 

 

192 goals from the top 9. 

 

10. Wallmark: 10 goals. Assuming he's the 4th line center, I give him the same as last year.

11. Martinook: 10 goals. Dropping 2 from last year, his career year.

12. McGinn: 13 goals. Averaging last two years. I think last year was a regression and expect more, but he'll fight for ice time.

 

Rest of forwards: 10 goals. This includes for me Necas, but might find ice time tough except injuries, plus Saku and call ups. 

 

Now, when totaling these, I'm going to adjust for injury drop offs, and that the guys not in the top 9 have never scored more than 26 (which was last year, 7 better than any recent year). So, I'm just going to hold everyone not in the top 9 to a total of 30 goals for all of them. This would be 4 more than last year. 

 

Forwards: 222 goals. 

 

This would outscore 9 NHL teams from last year for their entire team. But we've got D that can score.....for the sake of keeping this shorter, I'll just cut to it, the D can easily score 44 goals. This is not anyone's peak year. This D scored 48 last year and could easily do that again. I'm betting the goalies don't score any.

 

Total goals: 266.  Last year that would have been the #9 offense

 

If we assume last year's D scoring: 270 goals. #7 offense. 

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Last year we were the #8 team in goals against. If we can keep that up, we should be in very good shape. I see us as at least the #10 team in goals for, up from #16 last year, and really I would not be shocked if we pushed higher. That combo is solidly playoffs. 

 

And this is not pie in the sky career years for everyone stuff. I really don't even have a spot for m'boy Necas if J Williams comes back. 

 

If J Williams does not come back? Well I've only penciled him in for 15 goals. I think Necas, or McGinn or even Martinook could hit that. 

 

I like our group. IMO it's all about Mrazek and the goalies finding their way. As they go, we'll go IMO. If they slide, we are fighting to get in. If they hold, we get in comfortably and if they hit peaks, we're near the top. 

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Remkin, you can’t claim Necas, he’s everybody’s boy.

 

😜

 

 

Btw, I remember that draft and you and I both said we would be happy with Petterson or Necas.

 

Let’s hope we were as right about Necas as we were Petterson, that kid is special. Never expected him to go that high, Vancouver finally did something right.

 

 

.

Edited by Kyrule

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1 hour ago, Kyrule said:

Remkin, you can’t claim Necas, he’s everybody’s boy.

 

😜

 

 

Btw, I remember that draft and you and I both said we would be happy with Petterson or Necas.

 

Let’s hope we were as right about Necas as we were Petterson, that kid is special. Never expected him to go that high, Vancouver finally did something right.

 

True. I was sort of kidding because I've gotten a lot of pushback on me claiming Necas makes the team out of camp, so I'm kind of calling him m'boy because of that. You have a sharp memory Kyrule! We were so into Petterson. I wanted to open the cabinet and trade everything to move up to get Petterson (not that it was ever realistic). But both of us were thrilled when Necas fell to us. I remember Francis just walking up and saying we pick Necas and sitting down, like the cat that just ate the canary. He didn't even want to mess around. Just "we take Necas". Make sure it happened. Couldn't beleive he was still there.

 

Now that we've picked up Dzingle though, I'm starting to wonder. I'm not sure Necas has a clear path if Justin Williams comes back. It was what started me wondering if the team might be hedging against him not coming back. 

 

Necas does no good on the 4th line. One might just think Foegele and McGinn and Martinook could battle for the 4th line wingers, but it's hard to really see scratching one of those guys if Wallmark is center of the 4th line.

 

Talking about the original m'boy between us, Foegele, is the guy IMO who could push Necas back to the AHL if Williams returns. Man did Foegele come on in the playoffs. I think he pushed his way onto the third line there. And with an offseason and not being a rookie?  I really see Foegele as a third liner, in our scheme the #9 forward.

 

But then, baring injury that would leave no slot for Necas (again, if Williams returns and all are healthy). Injuries happen, and I wouldn't be surprised if Necas is just so dynamic that they have to find him a spot. But if Williams returns I see a log jam at #9/4th line forward, with Necas possibly the odd man out until an injury opens a shot up. 

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

If J Williams does not come back?

Perhaps he just comes back in a bench role. Still providing the leadership we need.

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Just one more fun with numbers thing. The projections, even with J Williams at 15, but bumping Jordan up to 20, would give us a 30 goal scorer and six 20-goal scorers. 

 

Last year only Toronto, and Washington had that, though Tampa was a wisp away and had THREE 40 goal guys and a 30 goal guy, so....other teams had more stars in the higher range, but the teams that had the depth we project or close to it: Tampa, Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Vegas, and San Jose. Not a bad list. And Pittsburgh traded Kessell, and SanJose lost Pavelski, so they probably drop off the list. 

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Thanks for the in depth analysis  Remkin. I agree we have lots of depth but we were also lucky last year - we had very few injuries. One of the only teams with 10 guys to play all 82 games I believe. I hope we are that lucky again but its unlikely. 

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

What would the reds be? Can they be the away version, or the alternates? I love the black, but the red sightless eye is really the team's logo. Hard to envision the blacks as the home jersey for that reason, but TD and this bunch of jerks love to shake things up.

I'd have the reds as our away Jersey. The whites are blah.

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4 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

I'd have the reds as our away Jersey. The whites are blah.

I agree, but didn't we have to ask permission to use the reds as our away jersey's? Do we have to do a light color or even white for away? 

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4 minutes ago, remkin said:

I agree, but didn't we have to ask permission to use the reds as our away jersey's? Do we have to do a light color or even white for away? 

Yes. Probably have to carry our whites against the Devils, Canadiens, red wings, panthers, etc.

 

i wonder if Red Wings & Canadiens would gladly wear their whites at home. They did it for so long.

Edited by gocanes0506

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9 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

I'd have the reds as our away Jersey. The whites are blah.

 

3 minutes ago, remkin said:

I agree, but didn't we have to ask permission to use the reds as our away jersey's? Do we have to do a light color or even white for away? 

 

Pretty sure that's the case.  I was surprised how often we got the ok to wear a dark jersey on the road last year.

 

I did hear that the Canes have a new white jersey on tap for the season.  It'll be interesting to see what they did with it.

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1 minute ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I did hear that the Canes have a new white jersey on tap for the season.  It'll be interesting to see what they did with it.

If we have to wear whites on the road and TD doesn't like the whites, that's what I was wondering, new whites. Might sell more of them too. 

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

OK, I have a minute so time to try to reasonably project our scoring for next year. To cut to the punchline, we should be a top 10 scoring team, and could end up closer to top 5.

 

I see you have paid the tax on the island, and the deed is good and enforceable.   Have you built the dock yet? 

 

😜

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25 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

I see you have paid the tax on the island, and the deed is good and enforceable.   Have you built the dock yet? 

 

😜

Ha! Finally got to go there this past season! Want to go again. Like the chances!

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16 hours ago, cane-addict-1 said:

Thanks for the in depth analysis  Remkin. I agree we have lots of depth but we were also lucky last year - we had very few injuries. One of the only teams with 10 guys to play all 82 games I believe. I hope we are that lucky again but its unlikely. 

We were lucky, but the thing that I keep coming back to is how good this team was after the end of December. Yes, we ended up falling short to the Bruins, but from the end of December through April and two rounds of playoffs, we were not just lucky, we were dang good, like top 5 NHL team good. That was not just a push in March and April, that was 5 months including playoffs. We've had a lot of teams over the years make little pushes over a month or two, even three one year, but nothing as good or sustained as the lat 5 months we played hockey. 

 

And we are putting nearly that exact same band back together, but with key yutes not rookies anymore and due to improve: Svech, Foegele, (even Wallmark), and increased firepower with Haula and Dzingle. 

 

So, does this team stay on the pace it set after December, regress back to the 82 point team of before that, or in between? Betting in between, is still probably good enough for playoffs. 

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February and March was our top 5 team months, March especially.  January was our worst month of goaltending, statistics wise, yet the offense really carried them.

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