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Offseason Talk 2019

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1 hour ago, Bonivan said:

Good read. More hints that Justin Williams will most likely be back, but not known. I found this interesting. The question leads Waddell to confirming the goalies, but not so fast...

 

Petr Mrazek was re-signed and James Reimer was acquired in a trade with the Florida Panthers. Is the plan for them to be your two goalies to begin the season?

 

"No. I look at it differently. You've got Mrazek, who played well for us last year. I think the next job is for one of three guys, whoever wants that job. We're in a spot that we need to win hockey games. We've got to put the best guys out there each night to win hockey games. We proved it last year when we ended up sending (Scott) Darling down, who was making a lot of money in the minors."

 

 

It's the right approach. Let Ned and Forsberg take their shot, and make Reimer work to prove he's not what happened last year to him.

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The Canes have a ton of competition everywhere.

 

Goalies- 4 vying for two spots

Defenders- 4 vying for the last two slots

offense- have 4 youngsters and a couple of veterans trying to make the roster

 

solid opportunity across the board. 

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The point about the competition at the bottom of the line up is a good one and speaks to the depth we've grown and acquired. Aho and TT are legit stars and Svech is on the verge. Slavin is breaking into the national writer's consciousness (a youtube guy had him as the #10 D man in the NHL), as is Pesce and Hamilton. But especially if Justin Williams returns this team's depth is better than any time post 2006 (and probably pre-2006 too). We now sport a 4th line that could very easily put up third line numbers, and a third line that can put up second line numbers. Then our top 4 D can hold up to just about anyone's.  In order of likely offense:

 

1. Aho. 85 points

2. Teravainen. 80 points.

3. Dzingle: 55 points.

4. Svechnikov: 55 points.

5.  Haula: 50 points.

6.  Williams. 45 points.

7.  Niedereiter: 45 points.

8.  Staal: 45 points.

9.  Necas: 35 points.

10. Foegele. 25 points.

11. Wallmark: 25 points.

12. Martinook: 25 points.

 

IMO every single guy outside of possibly Teravainen really could break the number assigned to them. Everyone except Necas, Svechnikov, and Foegele, actually HAS put up more points in a season. I'm staying with Necas, even though spots will be tight if J Williams returns. Necas' AHL numbers translate to 31 points, but he's still developing and has shown an ability to drive a high skill level in the NHL even a year ago, so I think 35 points is not unrealistic. 

 

Foegele had 5 goals and 9 points in 15 playoff games after 3 goals in the last 6 games of the regular season. That's 8 goals in his final 21 games including playoffs. That would be a 31 goal pace. I don't see him hitting 30 goals, but I really could see him chasing 20. Svech? Oh Svech could go off. I think I'm probably underestimating on him.

 

Neidereiter put up 57 points three seasons ago, and 53 last season. Even if he regresses to his pace that got him traded from Minnesota that's 41 points. 45 is really low for him TBH. Haula's last full season was 55 points (29 goals). Dzingle's last season was 56 points (29 goals) including falling way off in Columbus. Williams' lowest season of the past 4 was 48 points. Staal puts up 45 points like clockwork. 

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55 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

The Canes have a ton of competition everywhere.

 

Goalies- 4 vying for two spots

Defenders- 4 vying for the last two slots

offense- have 4 youngsters and a couple of veterans trying to make the roster

 

solid opportunity across the board. 

And on the defenders and forwards, if the utes force their way onto the ice, there are very tradeable contracts to move if it gets to be a numbers game.  Get more futures.  Profit.

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Offensive depth alone is not enough. Top line scoring, defense, and goaltending are obviously important parts of the winning equation. For a brief window Ottawa had scoring depth, but that was not enough but they are the absolute outliers and they lost most of it at or before the deadline. But aside from them, offensive depth, or lack of it, correlated pretty well. The top non Ottawa teams in forwards with 40 plus points last season:

 

7: Washington, Tampa, Toronto, Vegas, San Jose

6: Montreal

5: Calgary, Colorado, Boston, Winnipeg, Chicago, Detroit, Philly.

 

Chicago made a late run, but Detroit and Philly are a bit of a surprise, but the 6-7 guy teams all did well. 

 

There are outliers, but there is a correlation. 

 

Anyways, no team had 8. The average was around 4.5 per team. That is, the average NHL team had about 4-5 forwards score 40 or more points. 

 

We have 8 guys who should be able to do it. 

 

There are typically injuries and other issues, and at least one guy may have an off season, or not live up, etc. Until they do it, they haven't done it, but the potential is pretty inspiring. Just for fun we have 2 D men who could push 40 (Dougie and Faulk) and one who could push 35 (Slavin). 

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11 minutes ago, remkin said:

The point about the competition at the bottom of the line up is a good one and speaks to the depth we've grown and acquired. Aho and TT are legit stars and Svech is on the verge. Slavin is breaking into the national writer's consciousness (a youtube guy had him as the #10 D man in the NHL), as is Pesce and Hamilton. But especially if Justin Williams returns this team's depth is better than any time post 2006 (and probably pre-2006 too). We now sport a 4th line that could very easily put up third line numbers, and a third line that can put up second line numbers. Then our top 4 D can hold up to just about anyone's.  In order of likely offense:

 

1. Aho. 85 points

2. Teravainen. 80 points.

3. Dzingle: 55 points.

4. Svechnikov: 55 points.

5.  Haula: 50 points.

6.  Williams. 45 points.

7.  Niedereiter: 45 points.

8.  Staal: 45 points.

9.  Necas: 35 points.

10. Foegele. 25 points.

11. Wallmark: 25 points.

12. Martinook: 25 points.

 

IMO every single guy outside of possibly Teravainen really could break the number assigned to them. Everyone except Necas, Svechnikov, and Foegele, actually HAS put up more points in a season. I'm staying with Necas, even though spots will be tight if J Williams returns. Necas' AHL numbers translate to 31 points, but he's still developing and has shown an ability to drive a high skill level in the NHL even a year ago, so I think 35 points is not unrealistic. 

 

Foegele had 5 goals and 9 points in 15 playoff games after 3 goals in the last 6 games of the regular season. That's 8 goals in his final 21 games including playoffs. That would be a 31 goal pace. I don't see him hitting 30 goals, but I really could see him chasing 20. Svech? Oh Svech could go off. I think I'm probably underestimating on him.

 

Neidereiter put up 57 points three seasons ago, and 53 last season. Even if he regresses to his pace that got him traded from Minnesota that's 41 points. 45 is really low for him TBH. Haula's last full season was 55 points (29 goals). Dzingle's last season was 56 points (29 goals) including falling way off in Columbus. Williams' lowest season of the past 4 was 48 points. Staal puts up 45 points like clockwork. 

You have a list of 12 forwards that excludes Brock McGinn.  I don't think the Canes plan is to pay him $2M to take notes.  If JW re-signs, as I hope and expect, then the thought of Necas making this squad is diminished.  I believe Saku even made enough of an impression last season to warrant the 13th forward/rotate into the lineup position, and that Necas will play the bulk of the year at Charlotte until some injury or personnel change warrants a promotion.

That said, there are variables such as Haula's injury status, competition with Wallmark and Geekie, etc.  This is a stronger team than the one we were looking at this time last year, so while he may have made strides, if JW is back, Necas is probably on the outside looking in.

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18 minutes ago, beboplar said:

You have a list of 12 forwards that excludes Brock McGinn.  I don't think the Canes plan is to pay him $2M to take notes.  If JW re-signs, as I hope and expect, then the thought of Necas making this squad is diminished.  I believe Saku even made enough of an impression last season to warrant the 13th forward/rotate into the lineup position, and that Necas will play the bulk of the year at Charlotte until some injury or personnel change warrants a promotion.

That said, there are variables such as Haula's injury status, competition with Wallmark and Geekie, etc.  This is a stronger team than the one we were looking at this time last year, so while he may have made strides, if JW is back, Necas is probably on the outside looking in.

Yeah I sort of alluded to that by admitting spots will be tight. I agree with you that Brock will be there. If nothing else, after losing Ferland and DeHaan, we'll need his hitting. But Brock did not live up to his offensive potential, and I'm trying to show our max potential there. I also think Necas is ready and can be productive at the NHL level. Maybe with an injury Necas gets a shot and earns it. I am high on Necas, but agree there are not enough chairs. 

 

McGinn did put up 30 points two years ago though, and subbing McGinn in for Necas would not change the number of guys at 40 points or more, at least this year. I think Necas is a future 60 point plus guy, but not this year (another reason he needs to get some NHL time). But the too many chairs thing just points out our depth. Necas would be the biggest beneficiary if Williams retires, probably. 

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

Yeah I sort of alluded to that by admitting spots will be tight. I agree with you that Brock will be there. If nothing else, after losing Ferland and DeHaan, we'll need his hitting. But Brock did not live up to his offensive potential, and I'm trying to show our max potential there. I also think Necas is ready and can be productive at the NHL level. Maybe with an injury Necas gets a shot and earns it. I am high on Necas, but agree there are not enough chairs. 

 

McGinn did put up 30 points two years ago though, and subbing McGinn in for Necas would not change the number of guys at 40 points or more, at least this year. I think Necas is a future 60 point plus guy, but not this year (another reason he needs to get some NHL time). But the too many chairs thing just points out our depth. Necas would be the biggest beneficiary if Williams retires, probably. 

McGinn's value to the team lies outside of scoring Game 7 OT playoff goals.  He is a valuable PK, fast skater, pesty defensive forward who can contribute on the O side at times.  You have a good list of potential offensive contributions from the forward group.  IMO, we may see higher production from Svech and Foegele, but the rest looks about right.  Necas's turn will come, maybe this season, most probably next.  If JW was to retire (please don't), Saku and Gauthier might get looks before Necas because of their physicality.

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1 hour ago, beboplar said:

McGinn's value to the team lies outside of scoring Game 7 OT playoff goals.  He is a valuable PK, fast skater, pesty defensive forward who can contribute on the O side at times.  You have a good list of potential offensive contributions from the forward group.  IMO, we may see higher production from Svech and Foegele, but the rest looks about right.  Necas's turn will come, maybe this season, most probably next.  If JW was to retire (please don't), Saku and Gauthier might get looks before Necas because of their physicality.

I agree with you on McGinn's value. He has more scoring upside than he's shown too IMO. He does a lot of things right. He is an all around good player. He's a guy I've been writing about on these boards since the first camp after we picked him. He is a character guy too. But to me, while all of those things add value, the biggest thing that sets him apart is that he hits, and can hit hard. The team has made a conscious effort to add character, speed, skill, but also physicality. I posted it elsewhere but nearly every addition the committee has made prior to this offseason added some physical. But the greatest of these, was, by far, Ferland. 

 

We have increased our scoring chops with Haula and Dzingle, but losing Ferland, and DeHaan, but especially Ferland, looses a chunk of our snarl. With scoring due to uptick, and speed due to uptick, outside of goal, the biggest question mark might be that loss of physical. McGinn brings that. So, in addition to his new salary, he will be on the team for his physical, along with the other stuff you mention.

 

But, alas, unless we rotate 1-2 guys through the press box, or we have injuries, there are not enough seats when the music stops for everyone who has or could make the team, especially out of camp. Necas is probably the best bet to miss out. If we count Saku 34 games, 9 playoff games, then a rotation of Saku/McGinn/Walmark and possibly Martinook through the press box, would be one guy in the box, and Necas back in Charlotte. Right now, on paper, with J Williams back in, that seems most likely. 

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Necas. Almost any other year he'd be nearly a lock to make the team. He did enough in the AHL to give him an inside track. His .81 ppg was essentially tied for second on the team. He was +20, good for fourth on the team, both as a rookie. He has elite speed and can make plays at speed. At times in the playoffs he looked to be a clear level above AHL talent. He was called out many times by the announcers in the playoffs. He has had a year to adjust to the smaller N American ice space.

 

However, we are deeper than any time in just about forever going into the season. This is a good thing overall. Necas, on paper, only has a track to make the team if there is an injury, a trade, or J Williams retires. And if he does not make the team out of camp, that is not the end of the world.

 

A few thoughts on Necas and making the Canes:

 

I expect Necas to improve in the offseason. Top players of his age usually do. It is possible that Necas looks SO good in camp that it is very hard to deny him a slot. His talent and speed could be that evident. 

 

I'm not sure if this is a future ppg NHL player, but I bet he's a future 60-70 point player. 

 

He's been mentioned by Waddell as likely making the team, but that was before we added Haula and Dzingle.


He is the most talented guy for the #9 slot if we want to roll 3 high-end scoring lines. McGinn and Martinook, have both shown they can  be respectable third line wingers, and IMO Foegele will end up ahead of both of them for that slot. But Necas has potential right now that is higher than all 3 of them. 

 

Even if Necas does not make the team out of camp, Necas needs to get some NHL games this year. Ideally quite a few of them. Get his NHL rookie season under his belt.

 

If Necas goes back to the AHL one thing he could do is work on playing center, where he's played his entire career outside of last year. 

 

If Williams does not come back, and there are no further trades, I'd bet a lot Necas makes the team.

 

In the end, right now, if J Williams comes back, Necas will have a very hard time unless he blows doors off, or there is a key injury. But he should be the first guy up any time there is any forward injury, and we should try to get him as many NHL games as we can. 

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I would just like to say thank-you to Paul Fenton and all he did for the team. After seeing the Canes in their Whalers jersey, I was wondering if he thought he was still part of the team(as he once was) and traded for Nino to help the Whalers. 😳

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Somebody in the front office has a good calculator and way too much time on their hands.

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

The way he played would suggest him to be a good coach. 

My $$ is on Rod putting in a good word for him.  Maybe he can bring Rosey back too?  (Pause for primal screams from other posters). ;)

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

Necas. Almost any other year he'd be nearly a lock to make the team. He did enough in the AHL to give him an inside track. His .81 ppg was essentially tied for second on the team. He was +20, good for fourth on the team, both as a rookie. He has elite speed and can make plays at speed. At times in the playoffs he looked to be a clear level above AHL talent. He was called out many times by the announcers in the playoffs. He has had a year to adjust to the smaller N American ice space.

 

However, we are deeper than any time in just about forever going into the season. This is a good thing overall. Necas, on paper, only has a track to make the team if there is an injury, a trade, or J Williams retires. And if he does not make the team out of camp, that is not the end of the world.

 

A few thoughts on Necas and making the Canes:

 

I expect Necas to improve in the offseason. Top players of his age usually do. It is possible that Necas looks SO good in camp that it is very hard to deny him a slot. His talent and speed could be that evident. 

 

I'm not sure if this is a future ppg NHL player, but I bet he's a future 60-70 point player. 

 

He's been mentioned by Waddell as likely making the team, but that was before we added Haula and Dzingle.


He is the most talented guy for the #9 slot if we want to roll 3 high-end scoring lines. McGinn and Martinook, have both shown they can  be respectable third line wingers, and IMO Foegele will end up ahead of both of them for that slot. But Necas has potential right now that is higher than all 3 of them. 

 

Even if Necas does not make the team out of camp, Necas needs to get some NHL games this year. Ideally quite a few of them. Get his NHL rookie season under his belt.

 

If Necas goes back to the AHL one thing he could do is work on playing center, where he's played his entire career outside of last year. 

 

If Williams does not come back, and there are no further trades, I'd bet a lot Necas makes the team.

 

In the end, right now, if J Williams comes back, Necas will have a very hard time unless he blows doors off, or there is a key injury. But he should be the first guy up any time there is any forward injury, and we should try to get him as many NHL games as we can. 

I know you're super high on Necas, Rem, and in many areas he seems to have the tools, but so did Zykov. I know that's comparing apples to oranges speed wise, but Zyke nonetheless made finding the twine look like child's play in the A, but couldn't translate it to The Show.

 

Necas is most def not slow, but he got tossed around like a rag doll in his few NHL games last year. I'm not saying that will derail his career or that he can't learn enough about leverage to have a good and potentially great career. What I am saying is that somebody who looks elite in the lowest-grade pro league in Europe is likely to take a lot longer to make the NHL cut than a guy like Aho, who absolutely killed it in one of the best Euro leagues--and still went back there for another year after we drafted him.

 

If Martin projects to center, you're right that another year in CLT would do him good, and not just for the experience: at this point centers in our system pretty much have to take a number. I agree that he could make the team sooner as a W, but I think our system lends itself less and less to lightweights on the outside not named Teuvo (who is slick enough that it doesn't matter). Maybe Necas' stick skills could allow him to be TT2, but the question is how soon we'll need/want another one.

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
typo

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4 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

My $$ is on Rod putting in a good word for him.  Maybe he can bring Rosey back too?  (Pause for primal screams from other posters). ;)

You don't need no fancy app to make Rosie look old. Rosie is old.

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2 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

You don't need no fancy app to make Rosie look old. Rosie is old.

But Rosie also had the most accurate shot I’ve ever seen!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Too bad that accurate shot was always hitting the goalie in the logo.

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3 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I know you're super high on Necas, Rem, and in many areas he seems to have the tools, but so did Zykov. I know that's comparing apples to oranges speed wise, but Zyke nonetheless made finding the twine look like child's play in the A, but couldn't translate it to The Show.

 

Necas is most def not slow, but he got tossed around like a rag doll in his few NHL games last year. I'm not saying that will derail his career or that he can't learn enough about leverage to have a good and potentially great career. What I am saying is that somebody who looks elite in the lowest-grade pro league in Europe is likely to take a lot longer to make the NHL cut than a guy like Aho, who absolutely killed it in one of the best Euro leagues--and still went back there for another year after we drafted him.

 

If Martin projects to center, you're right that another year in CLT would do him good, and not just for the experience: at this point centers in our system pretty much have to take a number. I agree that he could make the team sooner as a W, but I think our system lends itself less and less to lightweights on the outside not named Teuvo (who is slick enough that it doesn't matter). Maybe Necas' stick skills could allow him to be TT2, but the question is how soon we'll need/want another one.

 

All reasonable points. This should make training camp interesting. The fact that we are so deep at forward will make this probably the hardest year for any forward to make the jump from the AHL right out of camp. But, we should get a good look at him in camp and the preseason against at least mostly NHL talent. I have to think when Brind'Amour said he'd almost rather have guys training than going deep and winning the Calder, he was basically looking right at Necas. 

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6 hours ago, remkin said:

This should make training camp interesting.

Most interesting in years.

 

Brindy prefers to have guys training because the guy eats breakfast lunch and dinner on a freakin' stationary bike; it's just what he does. But winning builds winners like weights and bikes can't, and he knows that. In an org which, for the last decade, got out of the gate like a tortoise and got just relevant enough by February to lose draft position--then routinely crashed and burned (preferably in April), training is fine--but learning to win as a group and making it the expectation should be the goal. That mindset develops on the ice, not in the training room.

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18 hours ago, AWACSooner said:

Minnesota just fired their GM...ownership must’ve LOVED that Nino trade ;)

Ownership denies it was the problem.  But who really knows?

Quote

Leading up to the trade deadline, he jettisoned popular pillars in Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle in exchange for forwards Victor Rask (Carolina), Kevin Fiala (Nashville) and Ryan Donato (Boston) — trades that drew criticism but transactions Leipold said didn’t cause Fenton’s firing.

http://www.startribune.com/wild-general-manager-paul-fenton-fired-by-owner-craig-leipold/513393392/

 

The article also mentions culture and locker room.  Got me to wondering...

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Curious what others think about the what I'll call "log jam" in coming up from the AHL to Big Show? As several have outlined previously, competition for the rare spot in the Canes line up will be extreme. From our spectators' viewpoint, all seem to agree. I'm wondering though, what or more specifically WHO keeps these youngsters' dreams of the NHL alive? As I think on this problem, it's apparent to me that there's youthful upheaval via social media in kids these days attitudes regarding "patience" (prime example is Aho's apparent ploy, likely no doubt influenced by his agent, to attain financial advantage by signing his OS). In the case of players like Necas and others who are right on the cusp, have worked extremely hard honing their game at the AHL level, and my gosh have risen to the epitome of that league winning a championship, what's the carrot to help them persevere in continually butting their heads against the ever closing door? The way I'm seeing this situation, while teams like Detroit and a few others, IN THE PAST, have been very successful it seems, letting their youth percolate for years in the lower ranks, could it be that plan is outdated due both to the advanced state of physical development at a younger age that these kids are experiencing, and the ever increasing trend of 'wanting it all now" mentality?

 

More importantly, who gets into these younger players' (like Necas) ear and urges patience? Brindy, assistant coaches, Warsofsky, other older players, or who? Seems to me that this is crucial, or there will be rebellion? I am aware that being invested in whatever team these players are competing for is ingrained in them since they 1st put on skates no doubt, but outside influences these days, thru social media, can be a very disruptive thing and I just wonder how it might be offset? Food for thought 

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