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Offseason Talk 2019

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22 hours ago, caniac6 said:

This season is still part of the rebuild, and their first smell of success. It also shows what further steps need to be taken to finish the rebuild. Work in progress. They are not done, but the foundation is more solid than it has been for a long time.

Due to their success, expectations may be set unfairly high for next season.  Parity in the NHL makes anything possible, so the team may repeat, but also may fall short.  There has been a chemistry built in the Canes locker room that bodes well for future success.  We all hope JW decides to come back for 1 or 2 more seasons.  He will probably play only as long as he is not pooping on the ice, so that is a no lose situation for the team.  Who knew Martinook would become a leader on this squad.  I trust that management will make good decisions, and if I am allowed to make a request, that would be, do not trade either Slavin (as if) or Pesce (named too often in rumors for my liking).  Otherwise, do what is best.  Sign Aho, Mrazek or equal, let Ferland go, let a few Checkers compete for forward jobs.  Can't recall enjoying a sports season more than this year's Canes performance.

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53 minutes ago, beboplar said:

do not trade either Slavin (as if) or Pesce (named too often in rumors for my liking).  Otherwise, do what is best.  Sign Aho, Mrazek or equal, let Ferland go, let a few Checkers compete for forward jobs.

Just saw the latest Storm Advisory, 5/20 over on the other site, and there's a post by Sara Civian, reputedly on Twitter which I don't use, on Pesce. Now I realize that she's got credibility around here (at least I think so), but this is a drum she keeps beating which I certainly hope will not be realized. Further, I know that Faulk had moments of brilliance during this past year, and perhaps I've become overly sensitized but his frequent mistakes, particularly at not being able to hold the blue line on PP, had me screaming at him frequently. IMHO, somehow, someway, I hope #27 becomes available for a new player?

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This could be a very interesting offseason. But outside of signing Aho, it's sort of hard to predict what the committee will actually do. 

 

Justin Williams. Does he have another year? Does he get another two year, knowing that year 2 could be a write off? If he leaves is there an heir apparent for the C? Is Aho ready? I definitely think at least a one year deal makes sense. He might be able to get two from another team, but an overpay for one seems right for us. 

 

Goalies. I would have thought at least re-sign Mrazek, but then Forslund threw some cold water on that notion. Not that it won't happen, just that it's not a done deal. He can go hot and cold. But if not him, who? McE is 36, and no clear indication he's up for staying, and Ned seems pretty close. 

 

Ferland seems done to me. McGinn is the only other name that needs to be signed outside of McKegg/Bishop. 

 

Necas. I remain steadfast that he's the real deal for what he does, but does he make the jump this year? Also, is he going to help fix our PP? He was very good there as a junior player. Not sure what he did on the PP in Charlotte. 

 

I've posited that the most skilled playmaking center would be my first move outside of the organization. Imagine making a run at Brayden Point. Or to a lesser degree RNH or other. 

 

Seems to me that the PP is the single biggest thing holding this team back. Any non goalie move should address that...then of course you gotta get goaltending right. Forslund mentioned a PP QB, but those are hard to find (cough-Adam Fox-cough, sorry, but it just smarts still), and a playmaker-distributor, especially for the bumper position, and a sniper. IMO the QB and the distributor are most key. Can Necas be the distributor? Can Svech be the sniper? Maybe.......if so, maybe stand pat.

 

Loaded on D (including in the AHL), 4 draft picks in the first two rounds, and lots of B level prospects (don't trade the A guys), seems like we could package something to get one of those needs met, but I can't really predict the exact way something actually gets done. Past years, they simply did not get it done, and with Necas and Ned in the wings, if we sign J Williams again, maybe they just let it roll without any major moves and just hope the kids get better (which they will, but will it be enough)? 

 

Too soon to tell, the draft is still a ways off, but I'm hoping that we do not stand pat. This year was awesome but we barely got in, and a lot went right after December. I do think Svech and Foegele will substantially step up, but Nino probably steps back a touch, and we will lose Ferland and J Willly is not signed. I love Necas, but I hope we at least add one more proven top 6 forward with PP chops. 

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2 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Just saw the latest Storm Advisory, 5/20 over on the other site, and there's a post by Sara Civian, reputedly on Twitter which I don't use, on Pesce. Now I realize that she's got credibility around here (at least I think so), but this is a drum she keeps beating which I certainly hope will not be realized. Further, I know that Faulk had moments of brilliance during this past year, and perhaps I've become overly sensitized but his frequent mistakes, particularly at not being able to hold the blue line on PP, had me screaming at him frequently. IMHO, somehow, someway, I hope #27 becomes available for a new player?

There were a few bright spots for Faulk   from the season but the two things  that sticks out  BIG time was in the playoffs against the bruins when he made that open ice hit  near the blue line .  The other was his play in the Islanders series where he went  back hand on the break out to score that goal .  Those two  were   things of beauty  I have never expected from him .   If the Canes could see more of that from him  and manage to stay healthy   that would be a great look for him .   Faulk cleaning up his defensive game and  doing more good things  of what we saw  is what i hope for ! 

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31 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Just saw the latest Storm Advisory, 5/20 over on the other site, and there's a post by Sara Civian, reputedly on Twitter which I don't use, on Pesce. Now I realize that she's got credibility around here (at least I think so), but this is a drum she keeps beating which I certainly hope will not be realized. Further, I know that Faulk had moments of brilliance during this past year, and perhaps I've become overly sensitized but his frequent mistakes, particularly at not being able to hold the blue line on PP, had me screaming at him frequently. IMHO, somehow, someway, I hope #27 becomes available for a new player?

 

I was going to reply with the notion that maybe we need a different mix on D. Namely, someone has to go to bring in a first unit PP QB. And, if we can, and that guy can play at least passable D, maybe we should do it. BUT, then I went and looked at our regular season PP numbers. They were that bad. It was the playoffs where the PP went completely away. 

 

Regular season: 17.8% (#20), Playoffs 9.6% pretty much bottom.

 

But the regular season we were only about 3.5% off the #10 team. That would have been about 8 more goals. Look, we are a cut line team. The East is a Beast. Eight more goals is worth going for, but not if we give them back with a lesser D. 

 

So was the playoff PP debacle the thing to react to? Maybe, but then again, probably not to "overreact" to. Svech will be better. Necas is pretty good on the PP at lower levels. 

 

So to me, while the QB is a need, if we can add another playmaking forward, maybe that's enough for now and we don't need to tweek the D. 

 

The thing is that we still have too many D men with our current top 6 and Fleury and Bean pushing. Just looking at the whole picture on the ice, Fleury would be the guy to trade in terms of overall skill. He brings absolutely no potential to help the PP, and while he can be a very serviceable NHL D man, Bean is already pushing to replace his slot on the depth chart. But what can we get for Fleury? It's hard to imagine much. 

 

Pesce-for-elite forward does make some sense, but this guy somehow (by luck, I guess), managed to, once again, move himself to the very top of the plus-minus list. This is an elite shut down D man. Frankly with Pesce-Slavin at the top, and Dougy providing some offense...I just can't see trading that trio....

 

OK, if Pesce, picks and prospects brought back a signed Brayden Point. But short of that sort of return, I don't like trading Pesce anymore either.

 

There just doesn't seem to be an easy, obvious move to get the obvious D for O thing done.

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3 minutes ago, remkin said:

OK, if Pesce, picks and prospects brought back a signed Brayden Point. But short of that sort of return, I don't like trading Pesce anymore either.

Reluctantly, I submit to the writing on the wall that you suggest here rem, but again wish there would be some other way, as much as anything because there seems to be a genuine Slavin/Pesce bond here (or is it just me wishing that). And you keep pushing Brayden Point, is he available and attainable? How about Brock Nelson, although I'm almost sure NYI will resign him?

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I'm trying to wrap my brain around the long standing D for O move. The problem, to me, is that there is no obvious move. I would argue that Faulk, Fleury, and oddly maybe DeHaan would be the guys at the top of the list in terms of salary/on ice needs. Don't get me wrong. I like all of them. I did not like Faulk until this year, but that was a hugely different Faulk we saw this year. Still some defensive liabilities, but dramatically fewer. (The yearly bottom dwellar in plus-minus was, oddly, a plus 9 this year). 

 

Anyways, looking at a D for O move by player:

 

Slavin: Untouchable. 

 

Pesce: Elite shut down. Offense improving. Favorable contract for his contributions. Not untouchable, but GM's don't tend to fairly value shutdown D men by giving back elite forwards, and I don't trade Pesce for less than an elite forward. This may make him unmovable. 

 

DeHaan. So smooth and quietly effective. I'd move him for the right piece though. The question is return. As with every single top 6 man on this list, we have to give to get, because they're all good. He did choose to come here as a UFA, so that would sting a bit. 

 

Faulk: New and improved and very effective this year. But maybe the new and improved Faulk has some new and improved trade value. Maybe he would, if he weren't down to his final contract year before UFA, and maybe if he didn't have a modified NTC to boot. Faulk was very solid on the ice this year and would be missed, but if he could return a fair value for this year's production, he'd still be my choice to move. The entire top 6 on D was positive and good this year, including Faulk, who moved the puck as well as anyone, but he only has one year left.

 

Hamilton: I guess we have to look at this. But like Pesce, he would have to bring back the goods, a near elite 2C at the least. But I still would not trade him. A team that struggles to get down low scoring at times needs scoring from the D, and this guy was #2 in the NHL in goals by a D man. And that factored in a slow start adjusting and with a broken finger. The last remaining piece of the block buster trade, I don't trade him. 

 

TVR: Highly effective bottom pair with an appropriate contract, who would not bring enough return to justify trading. Only one year left on deal. 

 

Fleury: It all comes down to return for me. There is nothing about his NHL play that would warrant any kind of return. Also, given his sparse usage, he should be able to be re-signed this year to a very team friendly deal. I see a plan where he essentially becomes a cheaper DeHaan if his game can uptick a bit. If nothing else a year of pure NHL play might up his value. 

 

I guess this points out to me that while we have 8 NHL Dmen (if we count Bean), there is no easy, obvious trade IMO.

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

 And you keep pushing Brayden Point, is he available and attainable? How about Brock Nelson, although I'm almost sure NYI will resign him?

 Not sure I've even mentioned Point before today Kjun. But I have today. Point's name comes up in the way Nylander or even Mitch Marner, because of cap issues and over-blessed teams on offense and being RFA's. 

 

So there has been the inevitable talk of offer sheets for guys like Marner and Point, which could mean they, or someone else on their team's roster could be trade bait. 

 

But mainly I'm establishing a level. Pesce is elite at stopping goals from happening. If we trade him, it should be for a guy who is elite at making goals. Point is probably more than Pesce could bring, but maybe Pesce-plus. 

 

The overriding point though is that it is likely that Pesce is close to unmovable because he's worth more to us than he'll return.

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Quote

 

Just found out that @NHLCanes Dougie Hamilton had broken his little finger on his right hand in 2 part back in November. He played all 82 games and one can draw the correlation of when it healed to when Hamilton’s game took off.

 

 
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The question one must ask about all these potential free agents is: are they Rod Brind’Amour type of players? 

 

We all know playing for Rod is no picnic in the park...are guys like Brayden Point going to run through the proverbial wall in *both* the regular season and playoffs?

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22 minutes ago, RickD_99 said:

The question one must ask about all these potential free agents is: are they Rod Brind’Amour type of players? 

 

We all know playing for Rod is no picnic in the park...are guys like Brayden Point going to run through the proverbial wall in *both* the regular season and playoffs?

There is no better guy than a Brind'Amour guy !

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29 minutes ago, OBXer said:

Dougie Hamilton took a puck off his right pinkie finger on Nov. 3 in Vegas, breaking the bone in two at the tip. He played all 82 regular-season games, of course, but he was understandably hampered by the injury in late 2018

 

 

Understandably, but i have to say it was either irresponsible to play a guy with a game-hampering injury instead of letting him heal, or the Canes don't have the defensive depth we think they do.  Which may have been confirmed in the playoffs when the preferred 7th guy was given 3 minutes a night...

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6 hours ago, remkin said:

Not sure I've even mentioned Point before today Kjun

Sorry rem, but thought I'd read that in the last few? Maybe saw it by some other poster?

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The canes have a real predicament on their hands with what to do  with the goal tending .   Do the Canes Sign big mac  to a decent contract  with him knowing he will most likely play back up  and soon to be turning 36 .  An how many years are we looking at for McElhinney   and for how much ? 

 

The same question in regards to Mrazek  being the Starter  , how many years  and for how much are we looking at ?  Petr working with Bales  definitely shown improvement  once january came around  in his performance  but Mrazek can be streaky  .   I do want  your opinion on both  in which direction  the Canes could possibly go ? 

 

Im sure Bobrovsky with panarin are a package deal and are most likely going to the panthers , many reports of them both staying there on " vacation "  this off season .   

 

Robin Lehner is most likely going back to the islanders  and they have the money to pay him  so that is a no go .  

 

Then the question about Nedeljkovic  if the Canes were to not sign  Mrazek or  McElhinney  would this be the year to call him up for a back up or possible  starter position ?

 

 

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9 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Or possible  starter position ?

ummmm. no.  Backup- maybe.

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26 minutes ago, cc said:

ummmm. no.  Backup- maybe.

he may be the number 2 to let him get used to the league but he should still see 40-45% of the starts.  

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7 minutes ago, sleekfeeder said:

This goal tending conundrum is one tricky situation. 

It will cause discontent / controversy no matter the 2 goalies this leadership chooses. 

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I mean, do you let Mraz go? He seems like a heart and soul guy, but it is a business after all. I personally think he's good enough. Not elite, but good enough. But, if you factor in all the games McE won for us, Ned probably won't do as well, then we probably don't make the playoffs. I'm not sure what to do here. Maybe one of them will make the decision for us. This is certainly the most critical and difficult decision of the offseason. 

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30 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

It will cause discontent / controversy no matter the 2 goalies this leadership chooses.

If nowhere else-  On this forum for sure. LOL

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46 minutes ago, sleekfeeder said:

I mean, do you let Mraz go? He seems like a heart and soul guy, but it is a business after all. I personally think he's good enough. Not elite, but good enough. But, if you factor in all the games McE won for us, Ned probably won't do as well, then we probably don't make the playoffs. I'm not sure what to do here. Maybe one of them will make the decision for us. This is certainly the most critical and difficult decision of the offseason. 

There isnt a right answer.  

Tracking Petr's season:

October 7 starts, .888 sv %, GAA 2.58

November 1 start .84 sv%, 3.92

December 8 starts, .92 sv%, 2.43 (1 shutout)

January 7 starts, .875 sv%, 3.29 

February 7 starts .929 sv%,  1.90 GAA (2 shutouts)

March 8 starts, .931 sv%, 1.98 (1 shutout)

April 11 starts, .92 sv%, 2.03 (1 shutout)

May 2 starts, .806 sv%, 3.26 

 

Overall he had a rough January, his save percentage in October wasnt great, and he was hurt in November.  Take out January and his one start in November and he was tied 12th for SV% fro goalies starting over 20 games.  His december and february-april stats had him as 7th in sv% in the same comparison

 

Using all of his stats in the regular season he was 21st in sv% for goalies starting 20 or more.

 

In GAA he was 7th in goalies starting 20 or more.  He was 4th if you take out January and his one November start.  

 

Overall he went back to his 2014-15 and 15-16 numbers. His 16-17 and 17-18 seasons numbers were .7 GAA higher at 3.03 and a .02 percent lower sv % at .901.  

 

Which goalie would we get next season?  14-15, 15-16, and 18-19 Mrazek or 16-17 and 17-18 Mrazek?

Edited by gocanes0506

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