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Offseason Talk 2019

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Well, just saw the breakdown of Marner’s contract. Basically $750k per year salary, with yearly signing bonuses beginning at $15 million this year and dropping over time to $7.25 million. #1, this is setting the market for top end talent and is definitely a big advantage for the handful of really deep pocket teams. But #2, without knowing the details of Matthews and Tavares deals, if they don’t get all of their money in bonuses, is that going to result in locker room friction? I sure hope so.

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50 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

Well, just saw the breakdown of Marner’s contract. Basically $750k per year salary, with yearly signing bonuses beginning at $15 million this year and dropping over time to $7.25 million. #1, this is setting the market for top end talent and is definitely a big advantage for the handful of really deep pocket teams. But #2, without knowing the details of Matthews and Tavares deals, if they don’t get all of their money in bonuses, is that going to result in locker room friction? I sure hope so.

Yup, the Leafs have found a CBA loophole, and I hope the union rank and file let both their "brothers," Marner and Tavares, hear it at the next meeting for helping them crawl slither through it.

 

Fortunately it's much harder to buy a Cup, and the Leafs have proved (and I am confident will continue to prove) totally incapable of doing so for more than a generation. 

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It will be interesting to follow the Leafs. They've gone "all in" on being top heavy at forward. Four guys, all forwards take up 52% of their entire cap if I'm doing the math right. Add in Rielly and Ceci and Anderson and that's 67% of their cap to 7 guys leaving 32.5% of their cap for around 15 other guys. 

 

Next year their entire D not named Rielly are either UFA or RFA's. 

 

What is interesting to me is that to the extent that a winning team can, we've taken the opposite approach. IMO winning teams in the NHL must have stars, but we've checked that box Aho, TT, Svech, Slavin, and more. But we're going with skill depth. Seriously, even without J Williams or Kase, we can go all the way to #9 at forward with potential 50 point or 20 goal guys, and still have to put two 15 goal guys on the 4th line for crying out loud (McGinn/Martinook). 

 

We have just as much depth on D. 

 

It can be really hard to visualize how much depth we actually have. There are some pundits who do see it, but many who just don't because they just see the big names and big markets, and gloss over us. And we picked up guys who are sneaky good, but not massive names, and coming off of some deceptively down times (Dzingle bad fit in Columbus, Haula prolonged time out with injury). IMO we also have a couple of guys who will step their games up this year, which is even harder for people to see who don't follow us regularly (Foegele, and Svech, but also possibly Necas, and I'd say Staal too).

 

The Canes vs Toronto is an interesting theoretical match up. We are both (sort of) cap teams, but with very different approaches. Our top 3 make $20M/year, their top 3 make $33.5M/year.  We also have a deep system and 2 firsts (including theirs) and 2 seconds, to their 1 second rounder next year. 

 

They have the big names and glitz, but I really really like our projection forward much better than theirs.

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Here's some random stats from last year in the form of a self quiz:

 

What was the Cane's team rank in the NHL for the following categories?

 

1. Shots for vs. Shots against differential.

2. Hits/game.

3. Takeaway vs Giveaways.

4. Goals Allowed

5. Goals For

6. PP goals

 

7. Which D man was #2 in ice time per game? (Slavin was #1).

8. Which forward was #2 in ice time per game? (Aho was #1).

 

 

Answers:

 

1. Canes were #1 in the league in shots differential.

2. Canes were #7 in the league in hits/game.

3. Canes were #4 in the league in takeaways/giveaways

4. Canes were #7 in the league in goals allowed

5. Canes were #16 in goals for

6. Canes were #19 in PP goals for.

 

7. Justin Faulk was the second most used D man per game. (Some of this is PP time, but still, he got a lot of ice time).

8. Nino Niederreiter was #2 after Aho in ice time per game. 

 

Those stats 1-6 included a very sup-playoff first three months of the season averaged in. Especially our goals for shot up in the back half of the season.

 

But looking at those numbers, this team excelled in a lot of areas, even with the "bad" part of the season folded in. If we get our PP and total goals where they seem to be headed, and even stay close to the other stuff, this becomes an elite team. 

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I just simulated the season in nhl 20 aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand ,   Justin williams does not come back  😜  

 

I seriously thought in the game  they would have Brind'Amour  as the coach but they put in some bs placement coach .  what the hell ea ? 

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Remkinesque optimism might have a bit more support out there than some old time NHL pundits are giving credit. Follow the money. It's usually more accurate.

 

Money Puck has the Canes as the #5 team in the league. Both in points, and in odds of winning the cup

 

EEjd7KmWkAAAe4R.jpg:large

 

The wheel is hard to read because the graphic geniuses over there put three red pies together, but the table tells the tale: (click for link at bottom).

 

Basically at the top points predictions and win cup predictions:

 

1. Tampa

2. Vegas

3. San Jose

4. St Louis

5. CANES

6. Calgary

7. Toronto

8. Boston

 

http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

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Well, I like their predictions. They have the Canes as the highest in the Metro, with the Pens next (#11 overall) followed by the Islanders (#13) and the Craps (#16). Wow!

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Feel good stuff, nothing more. Players need to play to their ability and not get hurt.  It is on the other hand nice to know others think the boys are legit this season. Maybe Rod will get the Kinetico job.

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The thing about Money Puck is that they run simulated games based on a pretty decent model of actual statistics from actual games. No season plays out the way a pundit predicts or a statistical model, but the pundits are filled with outside motives and biases. Motives to get eyes on at least one outrageous prediction, and biases to the teams that have been strong over years, or against those that haven't. 

 

Boomer Gordon makes the point I and others have made, namely that the back half of the year and the playoffs are the most recent performance of a team and should be weighed higher. From the last game in December all the way through the first two rounds of the playoffs, this was actually an elite team. One of the best in the NHL. This was not the typical "out of it after the deadline meaningless run", that previous Canes teams went on for 15-20 games, to establish a short team "winning feeling" that never carried over beyond netting a lower draft pick. This was a legit change that lasted more than 4 full months including 11 playoff games. 

 

Yet I've listened to several "experts" asked about the East and even the Metro and not even mention the Canes. 

 

I prefer the stats model. 

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26 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

What I think of as a "modified 2-way": $700k NHL, $100 AHL, $200k guarantee.

I have to ask, WTH is going on? Are we trying to dry up the defensemen market, forcing a trade with us or what? 

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1 hour ago, KJUNKANE said:

I have to ask, WTH is going on? Are we trying to dry up the defensemen market, forcing a trade with us or what? 

 

418764998_allyourd-men.thumb.jpg.89b5e8d1b118a8e86496c4fbb5ddca0c.jpg

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On 9/7/2019 at 2:44 PM, Canesfanforever said:

God i hope so .  Kochetkov from what i seen  seems like a godsend  for Carolina 

 

Kochetkov is crap. His save percentage is only .896, and the fact that he's giving up only 2.41 goals a game means his team is keeping down the shot attempts against, but he's leaky....

 

2019-20 9.png SKA St. Petersburg KHL 5 2.41 .896  

 

Okay, okay. Only five games...

Edited by JonKerfoot
Added.

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1 hour ago, JonKerfoot said:

 

Kochetkov is crap. His save percentage is only .896, and the fact that he's giving up only 2.41 goals a game means his team is keeping down the shot attempts against, but he's leaky....

 

2019-20 9.png SKA St. Petersburg KHL 5 2.41 .896  

 

Okay, okay. Only five games...

 

He's also a 20yo kid playing in the 2nd best hockey league in the world . . .

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24 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

He's also a 20yo kid playing in the 2nd best hockey league in the world . . .

eeeehhh ,  3rd  best ? I still consider the AHL   the 2nd best . 

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I've always found this fascinating. But this is the predicted conversion of points from various leagues to the NHL. That is, if player X, scores 100 points in his league, this is the prediction for how that would translate into NHL points. This is based on actual players, with the caveat that the range is huge. 

 

That said, it seems to me a pretty good indicator of the strength of the league. Based on that, the AHL would league #4 with the NHL #1. And the KHL is not only the second best league, but it's not really even close.

 

image.png

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Long time lurker first time poster. Fired up for this season! 

 

I always think of Ryan Whitney's article in the Athletic about playing for Sochi in the KHL for a season  https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/ryan-whitney-russia-khl. "For any NHL guys reading this right now, let me tell you something: You don’t know how good you have it. A normal practice in Sochi was harder than any day I ever had in an NHL training camp." 

 

 

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Yeah, outside of Cff I don't think you'd find many people that think the AHL is a better league talent wise than the KHL. 

 

Regardless, the main point is that Kochetkov is a 20yo kid playing goalie against men in one of the best hockey leagues in the world. 

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2 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

Yeah, outside of Cff I don't think you'd find many people that think the AHL is a better league talent wise than the KHL. 

 

Regardless, the main point is that Kochetkov is a 20yo kid playing goalie against men in one of the best hockey leagues in the world. 

 

John and Tripp have said it often.

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