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4 hours ago, remkin said:

Now the next part of this I won't call a myth because really no one knows how it will play out. But IMO the team did lose by not getting Aho on an 8 year deal. I get the contention that Aho hasn't proven he can stand up to....or that he's really going to produce that much...no I don't agree. Aho has been in the league 3 full seasons. He has missed 4 games. He is not the old time standard big center. Even Brind'Amour has trouble getting around that as he keeps hedging on Aho at center (maybe that played in some). But Aho has proven that he is a star. And by far the most likely scenario is that his trajectory is up.

 

And up from a ppg, +25 season, is pretty good. He is 21 years old, with only 3 seasons. His points per season: 49,65,83. -1. +4, +24. And not to get into that bad stat, but Aho has been a two way center for his entire career at all levels. Want Aho or Duchene? Want a guy who can score more AND play defense and win? That guy is not Duchene. 

 

The cap is going to bounce up in two years, but the big, young studs are already getting crazy money. Just wait to see what Mitch Marner gets. OK 94 points, but Aho put up 83 with injury. And Aho put in 3 more goals. Anyways, the cap bumps way up in three years (expansion PLUS a new TV deal). 

 

But that's not all. Aho will be coming into UFA in 5 years with a MUCH higher cap, will be in UBER prime position at age 26 to just back the truck up and load the gold bullion on there. He will be a superstar UFA if we don't lock him down first, and we can see by this how that will go. 

 

We absolutely will wish we had him locked for 8 years, even at a higher number. In 5 years, even $9.5 million will be a huge bargain. Instead, we'll have to pay much much more than that, or lose him to UFA. 

 

But that's why we kept negotiating and in the end that's what Montreal cost us, those last 3 years. Thanks for nothing imbeciles. 

 

When it comes time for their next contract.I can see one possible hidden silver lining for teams that signed kids to 5 year deals instead of the max 8 year deals   If the kid rises to superstar/ face of the franchise level, and the team is a legitimate Cup contender, they have little option but to re-sign the player to a mega contract.  At that point the player will want term.   Giving an 8 year deal to a 26yo superstar gives you a decent chance of buying production for the whole term of the contract.  Giving a 29yo superstar an 8 year deal carries the risk of being forced into a bad contract towards the end of the term.

 

Having said that, I too would have liked to have locked Aho up for 8 years. :grin:

Edited by LakeLivin
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Williams might come back

If not, I would like a shot at either Kreider, Gusev or a TB forward.  TB, NYR, and LV will have cap issues still.  

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So it looks like Capfriendly has added Aho's new contract to our cap. Shows $11.1M in space, with 10 forwards, 5 D and 2 G on the roster. They assume Necas is one of the 10, but not Brock until his contract is done. So we have to fit him and atleast 1 D and maybe 2 Forwards into the 11.1 for the season. Fleury or Bean are likely our 6th D. If JW comes back, I think we are done shopping for next year. 

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I do hope we get Williams back for at least one year. Not just for his excellent leadership, but because he can still play. He is skilled and a wily veteran who makes plays. He hit 20 goals and 50 points again, and I'm thinking he basically has that production dialed in. 

 

If we do, we will be a better team with the exception of no DeHaan. I'm still not loving that deal, but we would not have had DeHaan in the first couple of months anyways. 

 

But if Williams can hold serve, and Haula can get back to even close to full form, we will be better up front right there, and we will see improvements from other key players IMO. The main ones are Svech, Foegele, and Necas. 

 

Necas is the most unproven. This is just my eyeballs and looking at his production in the AHL. His direct point conversion is 31 points. That's just a few less than Svech put up this year, and would be 8th best forward last year. But that assumes no improvement from year to year from a very talented young player. I'm looking for 35 points from Necas, but maybe pushing 40. 

 

Foegele. Foegele spent the first 3/4 of the year focusing on the game that got him an NHL job. Not that he didn't try to score, but mainly on breakaways. At the end of the year, and into the playoffs, he hit his stride and confidence. That has to bode well for a guy coming off his rookie season. If you project his playoff numbers over a full season, that's 29 goals and 49 points. Maybe a bit too ambitious, but 15-20 goals and 35-40 points is not. 

 

Svechnikov. This one is a no brainer. The way he came on at the end and in the playoffs pre knockout, was telling. An offseason, confidence and probably a higher line pairing, or more skill with him, (maybe Haula), and I don't see how Svech doesn't take a big step up. Aho hit 65 points his second year, but he was also a year older. I see Svech hitting 25-28 goals and 60 points pretty comfortably next year if he stays healthy. 

 

I would probably throw in Jordan Staal too. I remain confident he has more offense in him than we've seen lately. 

 

Getting Aho locked up, re signing J Williams and the sleeper move of Haula will add to the improvements of our young core. Don't sleep on us next year.

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The last thing is Mrazek. The guy, like others discussed above really put it together in the back half of the year and playoffs. That is the most recent sample. IF he maintains that level, he will be a top 15 goalie at least. 

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

The last thing is Mrazek. The guy, like others discussed above really put it together in the back half of the year and playoffs. That is the most recent sample. IF he maintains that level, he will be a top 15 goalie at least. 

If he doesn’t maintain there’ll the second half of the season, we’re in trouble. I heard part of an interview with McE on XM today. The (Canadian) host asked him if he was happy to be out of Carolina. He said no, there had been discussions but nothing that led to a deal. I’d bet the Canes only offered one year. I can’t work out the economics of it, but might it not have been cheaper to sign McE for TB money at 2 years and bought out Mongo, than taking on 3 years of Reimer at $3.4 million per? Wonder if we’re planning to trade or buyout Reimer and go with Ned as backup. Except if I do my math correctly, we owe Reimer more than we owed Mongo, so a buyout will cost more. A trade is a possibility though.

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56 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

If he doesn’t maintain there’ll the second half of the season, we’re in trouble. I heard part of an interview with McE on XM today. The (Canadian) host asked him if he was happy to be out of Carolina. He said no, there had been discussions but nothing that led to a deal. I’d bet the Canes only offered one year. I can’t work out the economics of it, but might it not have been cheaper to sign McE for TB money at 2 years and bought out Mongo, than taking on 3 years of Reimer at $3.4 million per? Wonder if we’re planning to trade or buyout Reimer and go with Ned as backup. Except if I do my math correctly, we owe Reimer more than we owed Mongo, so a buyout will cost more. A trade is a possibility though.

We definitely owe Reimer more then Mongo via buyout. That is why Panthers agreed to that deal.

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9 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

If he doesn’t maintain there’ll the second half of the season, we’re in trouble. I heard part of an interview with McE on XM today. The (Canadian) host asked him if he was happy to be out of Carolina. He said no, there had been discussions but nothing that led to a deal. I’d bet the Canes only offered one year. I can’t work out the economics of it, but might it not have been cheaper to sign McE for TB money at 2 years and bought out Mongo, than taking on 3 years of Reimer at $3.4 million per? Wonder if we’re planning to trade or buyout Reimer and go with Ned as backup. Except if I do my math correctly, we owe Reimer more than we owed Mongo, so a buyout will cost more. A trade is a possibility though.

I have little doubt that they were only going to give McE a one year deal.  I would assume we give Ned about 10 starts this season and a healthy load in the AHL.  2020 he is on the squad and starting 30-35 games or so.  

 

We picked up Reimer because we found someone that would take on Darling and give up something of value.  Florida did it, as Bonivan said, because the cap hit on the buyout is cheaper next season.  

 

I wouldnt be surprised to see us move Reimer.  CBJ are a possibility with their two young guys.  Maybe we swap him with Anderson of Ottawa.  We get our one year backup but at a slightly higher cost.  Anderson makes 4 million this season, 4.7 cap hit.  

 

To me, we should move him outright even if we eat 50%. Buy a car for Forsberg & Ned to use to drive between Raleigh and Charlotte.  Either one is backup to Mrazek and getting spot starts. They also flip with each other so Ned can get 40+ starts total.  That way Booth or Helvig can come up to Charlotte and get plenty of playing time.

 

NHL Starts

Mrazek- 50

Ned- 20

Forsberg-12

 

AHL Starts

Ned- 25

Forsberg-15

Booth/Helvig- 35

 

it should be manageable with the AHL having a ton of weekend games that are 3 in a row. In a 2 week stretch, Ned is playing for Charlotte on a Friday and Saturday starts in week one, Booth/Helvig would get the Sunday start. After that called up to Carolina to get one start the 2nd week.  Forsberg would be the opposite but, he would only get one weekend start for Charlotte, Booth/Helvig would get the other two.

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3 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

I have little doubt that they were only going to give McE a one year deal.  I would assume we give Ned about 10 starts this season and a healthy load in the AHL.  2020 he is on the squad and starting 30-35 games or so.  

 

We picked up Reimer because we found someone that would take on Darling and give up something of value.  Florida did it, as Bonivan said, because the cap hit on the buyout is cheaper next season.  

 

I wouldnt be surprised to see us move Reimer.  CBJ are a possibility with their two young guys.  Maybe we swap him with Anderson of Ottawa.  We get our one year backup but at a slightly higher cost.  Anderson makes 4 million this season, 4.7 cap hit.  

 

To me, we should move him outright even if we eat 50%. Buy a car for Forsberg & Ned to use to drive between Raleigh and Charlotte.  Either one is backup to Mrazek and getting spot starts. They also flip with each other so Ned can get 40+ starts total.  That way Booth or Helvig can come up to Charlotte and get plenty of playing time.

 

NHL Starts

Mrazek- 50

Ned- 20

Forsberg-12

 

AHL Starts

Ned- 25

Forsberg-15

Booth/Helvig- 35

 

it should be manageable with the AHL having a ton of weekend games that are 3 in a row. In a 2 week stretch, Ned is playing for Charlotte on a Friday and Saturday starts in week one, Booth/Helvig would get the Sunday start. After that called up to Carolina to get one start the 2nd week.  Forsberg would be the opposite but, he would only get one weekend start for Charlotte, Booth/Helvig would get the other two.

If we trade Reimer then we will end up with Ned/Forsberg as starter and backup if Mrazek gets injured. And at least this season we are not in position to afford this.

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7 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

If we trade Reimer then we will end up with Ned/Forsberg as starter and backup if Mrazek gets injured. And at least this season we are not in position to afford this.

I agree with your thought.  At the same time we have to hand the keys over to Ned eventually. Also, there will be veterans available to be signed at training camp or later.  Cam Ward, Niemi, etc.  If the young fellows don’t look starter quality at camp then you go out and sign either to a cheap deal and have as insurance.  

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When the season ended RBA made two statements which I agree with:

 

1) The Canes are not going to sneak up on anybody next year.

2) The Canes roster will have to get better.  Not necessarily from outside, but better.

 

Since then, on D the Canes have shipped off de Haan, whose place will be taken by Fleury or Bean, probably.  Cost savings for sure, possible power play improvement if Bean gets a shot, but not an improvement on D.  The Canes have added Haula to the forward group, losing McKegg and most likely Ferland.  If JW returns, that opens the turnstile for at least one Checker prospect for a group including Necas, Geekie, and Gauthier.  If Haula comes in and contributes 25 goals, then you have to like the new group.  Then it will be on the internal improvement of guys like Svech, and maybe the rookie who rises to the occasion to make the team better.  Hopefully, the new contract and the added pressure that comes with it does not drag Aho's game down.

 

Anyone think they will make any other significant moves?

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19 minutes ago, beboplar said:

When the season ended RBA made two statements which I agree with:

 

1) The Canes are not going to sneak up on anybody next year.

2) The Canes roster will have to get better.  Not necessarily from outside, but better.

 

Since then, on D the Canes have shipped off de Haan, whose place will be taken by Fleury or Bean, probably.  Cost savings for sure, possible power play improvement if Bean gets a shot, but not an improvement on D.  The Canes have added Haula to the forward group, losing McKegg and most likely Ferland.  If JW returns, that opens the turnstile for at least one Checker prospect for a group including Necas, Geekie, and Gauthier.  If Haula comes in and contributes 25 goals, then you have to like the new group.  Then it will be on the internal improvement of guys like Svech, and maybe the rookie who rises to the occasion to make the team better.  Hopefully, the new contract and the added pressure that comes with it does not drag Aho's game down.

 

Anyone think they will make any other significant moves?

Other than JWill, No. If he retires I'd look for another added Veteran if available. Other than that, I think they roll the dice with what they have. 

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2 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

I have little doubt that they were only going to give McE a one year deal.  I would assume we give Ned about 10 starts this season and a healthy load in the AHL.  2020 he is on the squad and starting 30-35 games or so.  

 

We picked up Reimer because we found someone that would take on Darling and give up something of value.  Florida did it, as Bonivan said, because the cap hit on the buyout is cheaper next season.  

 

I wouldnt be surprised to see us move Reimer.  CBJ are a possibility with their two young guys.  Maybe we swap him with Anderson of Ottawa.  We get our one year backup but at a slightly higher cost.  Anderson makes 4 million this season, 4.7 cap hit.  

 

To me, we should move him outright even if we eat 50%. Buy a car for Forsberg & Ned to use to drive between Raleigh and Charlotte.  Either one is backup to Mrazek and getting spot starts. They also flip with each other so Ned can get 40+ starts total.  That way Booth or Helvig can come up to Charlotte and get plenty of playing time.

 

NHL Starts

Mrazek- 50

Ned- 20

Forsberg-12

 

AHL Starts

Ned- 25

Forsberg-15

Booth/Helvig- 35

 

it should be manageable with the AHL having a ton of weekend games that are 3 in a row. In a 2 week stretch, Ned is playing for Charlotte on a Friday and Saturday starts in week one, Booth/Helvig would get the Sunday start. After that called up to Carolina to get one start the 2nd week.  Forsberg would be the opposite but, he would only get one weekend start for Charlotte, Booth/Helvig would get the other two.

 

Here's hoping that all of our goalies play up to a level that they're as interchangeable as the above scenario envisions. 

 

random side note: instead of the goalies driving between Raleigh and Charlotte I wonder if they ever take a train? Seems like it would be safer, and they could be studying film of our next opponents during the trip.

Edited by LakeLivin

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1 hour ago, beboplar said:

When the season ended RBA made two statements which I agree with:

 

1) The Canes are not going to sneak up on anybody next year.

2) The Canes roster will have to get better.  Not necessarily from outside, but better.

 

Since then, on D the Canes have shipped off de Haan, whose place will be taken by Fleury or Bean, probably.  Cost savings for sure, possible power play improvement if Bean gets a shot, but not an improvement on D.  The Canes have added Haula to the forward group, losing McKegg and most likely Ferland.  If JW returns, that opens the turnstile for at least one Checker prospect for a group including Necas, Geekie, and Gauthier.  If Haula comes in and contributes 25 goals, then you have to like the new group.  Then it will be on the internal improvement of guys like Svech, and maybe the rookie who rises to the occasion to make the team better.  Hopefully, the new contract and the added pressure that comes with it does not drag Aho's game down.

 

Anyone think they will make any other significant moves?

Is there anybody of interest available in Sharks? If Marleau signs with them I would expect a trade between Canes and Sharks since we basically allowed him to sign wherever he wants buying him out.

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1 hour ago, Bonivan said:

Is there anybody of interest available in Sharks? If Marleau signs with them I would expect a trade between Canes and Sharks since we basically allowed him to sign wherever he wants buying him out.

They are not going to do the Canes any favors just for buying him out and letting him finish his career there, if they find the room.  That's the thing, they may need to move a body off the roster to accommodate his wishes, and in that manner there may be a player of interest.

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Ferland.  Nobody is biting.  I'd still like to have the guy at a reasonable deal.  Somebody is going to get him for around 6-mil if I had to guess on a two year contract.  Chairs are getting hard to find.

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57 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

Ferland.  Nobody is biting.  I'd still like to have the guy at a reasonable deal.  Somebody is going to get him for around 6-mil if I had to guess on a two year contract.  Chairs are getting hard to find.

With as often as he is injured, not terribly surprised that no one is biting.

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10 minutes ago, caneswincup said:

With as often as he is injured, not terribly surprised that no one is biting.

 

 

Anyone bites, he'll never make it to the second period.

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44 minutes ago, caneswincup said:

With as often as he is injured, not terribly surprised that no one is biting.

 

Probably a lot of that and the fact he was asking north of 5-million. 

 

Funny he was one of the guys the media had as really cashing in on his skillset, but he really hasn't cashed in.

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7 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Probably a lot of that and the fact he was asking north of 5-million. 

 

Funny he was one of the guys the media had as really cashing in on his skillset, but he really hasn't cashed in.

Right. If you are going to risk a spot on a guy with his injury record, it’d have to be at a vastly reduced rate or on a one year show me contract.

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First off, Happy 4th  🇺🇸 all. Glad we got Pete locked in. Been following the Canes news when possible, and I wouldn’t be surprised if more moves are in store. Still scratching my head over Montreal’s offer sheet. No-brainer for us 😏

Edited by surfzone365

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12 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

Ferland.  Nobody is biting.  I'd still like to have the guy at a reasonable deal.  Somebody is going to get him for around 6-mil if I had to guess on a two year contract.  Chairs are getting hard to find.

While I like what a healthy Ferland brings, I don't know that the Canes have the cap space to sign him.  There is about $11M left, with Williams and McGinn to factor in as well as a couple of cheap dmen.

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On 7/3/2019 at 11:28 AM, Bonivan said:

Is there anybody of interest available in Sharks? If Marleau signs with them I would expect a trade between Canes and Sharks since we basically allowed him to sign wherever he wants buying him out.

Tough to tell what money we will have left with outstanding issues. JW, McGinn... There is one forward on the Sharks I'd love to make a play for. The sharks may not be able to sign him with their own cap considerations. Kevin Leblanc is a RW/right shot, fast and has a great shot. He is far from reaching his full potential and I think it would be a great match for us.

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