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Canes will match offer Sheet on Aho 5yrs 8.45mil AAV

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5 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

You guys don't get it do you?  Some of you do though.  Bottom line:  TD and DW were low balling Aho and not offering him fair market value.   So Aho took matters into his own hands in order to achieve fair market value.  Good for him and shame on management for being cheap skates and potentially losing a 1C and their best player for peanuts.

Still not sold on the cheap skates thing.  I think the real issue is that TD and DW were stuck on 8 years and weren't budging.  They may have gotten to the $8.45M, but wanted the 8 years.  Aho wanted 5 years and found a way to get what he wanted.  Montreal saw a player that they would like to have and structured a deal in a way that they thought they had a chance at getting the player.  If the Canes match, they lose nothing.  

 

It's just business, folks.  Canes thought they had all the control on the contract.  Didn't work out that way.  No hard feelings.  Move on.

 

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27 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Following my epic, rem-like novel above and now that I've slept (hopefully not mixing up words), I wanted to return to a thought I'd floated there. Before that, I want to thank top for his monetary analysis and for your thoughts top.

 

Returning to Aho, again maybe overthinking this, but to me the possibly unintended (I say that tongue in cheek), but truly masterful part of this attack on Canes hockey, and I do believe it was so, was the potential by stating that Aho said "he really wanted to play in Montreal", to drive a wedge in that room and fragment the team. I do acknowledge that several believe that idea is overblown, but I just ask, if you were Aho's teammate and you read that in the media, how would you feel about his loyalty? I mean, my question would be, Dude, do you really want to play here and with us? So, I ask, Did Bergevin create a caustic atmosphere in that room, effectively neutralizing one of our primary weapons? That's why I think it critical to try to understand Aho's part in this. Of course he'll deny those words/thoughts, but the damage, though we can blow it off as GM speak, might have been done?

 

This. The existence and $$$ of the offer sheet has been overblown. Had no offer sheet been extended, DW and Aho likely would have negotiated a deal around 8-8.5M anyway. Of course, it wouldn't have been front loaded like the offer sheet, but I doubt TD will have great difficulty meeting that. Assuming we match (and I don't see us not), the offer sheet simply has the effect of getting both parties off the dime and to an agreement. As super dave says, "It's just business, folks. . . . Move on."

 

The real issue, IMHO, is the assertion by Bergevin that Aho said he wants to play in Montreal. If Bergevin was implying, embellishing, or downright lying about this, then is a despicable person and the league GMs should treat him accordingly. If Aho (or more likely Aho's agent) actually said this, then either (1) it was just something he thought was necessary to say it to get the offer sheet or (2) he really is unhappy with the Canes, spoke truthfully, and would rather play somewhere else. We likely will never know the truth because nobody will be honest in their public statements. But, if I was RB, I'd wait until the contract was signed and then have a sit down with Aho to see what he says. Personally, without more evidence to the contrary, I think Aho is fine staying here and that (1) his agent may have embellished this to Bergeven to assure the offer sheet or (2) Bergevin is a liar. 

 

We'll get Aho signed, but afterwards RB needs to do some behind-the-scenes work to ensure that this doesn't affect the team chemistry.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

You guys don't get it do you?  Some of you do though.  Bottom line:  TD and DW were low balling Aho and not offering him fair market value.   So Aho took matters into his own hands in order to achieve fair market value.  Good for him and shame on management for being cheap skates and potentially losing a 1C and their best player for peanuts.

 

I have to question myself for agreeing with you, but you are correct in this.  If our best offer to Aho was really 8 years at $7.5M, we effectively told him we didn't really think he was that important.  If there is any truth that out first offer this summer was 8 years at $6M, that's down right insulting.

 

I am a professional contract negotiator.  It's what I do everyday.  If you are buying a commodity (inanimate object) , you want to get it for the lowest possible price.  If you are acquiring a service, you are essentially buying a partner.  You should not be looking for the lowest possible price.  You should be looking for a win/win.  If the acquired service feels cheated or unappreciated, you will never achieve a fully committed partnership with your asset.  If you overpay, the contract becomes a burden on the team and creates hardship for the player.

 

If Aho has another year of increased production, he is looking at Panarin value.  Why would he agree to something that would pay him Zucarela money for the majority of his prime years?  If we wanted lower AAV, we needed to offer shorter term.  That would allow Aho to bet on himself.  If we wanted longer term, we needed to offer more money.  That would be us betting on Aho.  The win/win negotiation, is medium term, medium money.  That is pretty much what Montreal did with the offer sheet, although I still think its a little light financially.  

 

The 5 year contract really is the perfect length for the player and the team.  Aho is 21.  He will be 26 when this deal expires.  Assuming he will be seeking full term on the next contract, the 8 year extension takes him 34.  All 8 years should be solid producing years.  If this contract was for 8 years, he would be 29 when this contract expires.  Assuming he would be seeking full term at that point, the extension would take him to 37.  That would create one of those situations where you are over paying for the last 3 or 4 years of the contract.

 

 

 

 

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I am not fully convinced that we are going to match.  We were told Fox was going to sign.  Fox did not sign.  We were told that there wouldn't be an offer sheet.  There was an offer sheet.  We were told we would match any offer sheet.....

 

 

 

 

 

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OK I want to jump back in on this whole thing. Here are some thoughts. Mostly still thinking similar thoughts. I have a lot to say, so I'll break into separate posts.

 

Aho and his agent got a lucky break, but there is, IMO, one villain here: Marc Bergevan and Montreal ownership. Again, if not for their insertion into this, there would be no mention of anything everyone is getting so amped up about. And to make matters worse, he made that probably embellished statement about Aho wanting to play in Montreal, implying without saying that he wanted out of Carolina. This really rubbed dirt in the wound up front. Yes, within the rules, but predatory and disruptive. No, Bergeven thought that the misfit TD and his non-old boy approach, and bunch of jerks distain of the old ways was a ripe target. For one thing the rest of the league won't be that mad that we were the ones finally attacked after years of not doing this.

 

In the end, the Canes will match, they absolutely have to. Even if Dundon has to take out a loan (he doesn't), they CANNOT let Aho walk. Not for an offer so relatively small in totality that we'd only get a single pick in rounds 1,2, 3. For a proven superstar. So we will match. 

 

Adam Gold: There is no doubt that the Canes will match the offer, $8.45m AAV for Aho over the next five seasons is, by every conceivable measure, below market value. 

 

 And Montreal, I guess can tell their fans they "tried".  But then again, they failed. So in the end they will look the worse for it. 

 

We will be spared a summer of negotiating and possibly a hold out. And we will get to show that we won't be muscled. But we will not get to lock up Aho for the 8 years we wanted. I get that some think this is good. I don't. But it's better than a two year bridge IMO.

 

It will all end up fine. Aho will say the right things. He will be our guy for at least 5 years, and he will rock. Some fans will always hold this against Aho, but most will not even know what happened. 

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12 minutes ago, cclifford10 said:

I am not fully convinced that we are going to match.  We were told Fox was going to sign.  Fox did not sign.  We were told that there wouldn't be an offer sheet.  There was an offer sheet.  We were told we would match any offer sheet.....

 

 

 

 

 

The Canes will lose more than 21 million in a year if they dont match.  All the media and fan momentum is gone.  Any chance of signing UFAs is gone.  All the money the TD has put into the building is wasted.

 

It makes zero sense for the TD and the Canes to not match an offer like this. If he wasnt going to match, his best bet would be to keep the team as cheap as possible and let the arena remain the same.  Then move the team after 7 years.  

 

 

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I think the biggest lesson in this is TD needs to understand that being an long term negotiator is good for business but in this business you lose in the future with such. 

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Myth 1: The Canes are to blame for being cheap and negotiating too rough with Aho. 

 

NO big RFA are signed yet. Why does every other team (Tampa, Winnipeg, and the big daddy who actually made their last big RFA sit for half a season and go right to the wire, get a pass on negotiating?). We were engaging in the important cost-containment that only comes through negotiating. The system is set up against RFA's (except the offer sheet). For years teams have negotiated firmly with almost all RFA's. The idea was as others have posted, that "you haven't fully proven yourself yet. You get the big bucks in UFA, for now, we set some limits now". This has been changing some, especially with mega stars, but until now the one thing that could open thing up: an offer sheet, had not happened in years. 

 

We were doing the right thing. Just like we did with Mrazek and Ferland. Just like we did with Slavin and Pesce and TT. And Aho would have been very well paid, and we'd have had him for 8 years (guessing), even if it cost more than anyone thought. 

 

We were just conducting usual business, just like every other team with a high profile RFA, until Bergevan cannon balled into the pool. 

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Now the next part of this I won't call a myth because really no one knows how it will play out. But IMO the team did lose by not getting Aho on an 8 year deal. I get the contention that Aho hasn't proven he can stand up to....or that he's really going to produce that much...no I don't agree. Aho has been in the league 3 full seasons. He has missed 4 games. He is not the old time standard big center. Even Brind'Amour has trouble getting around that as he keeps hedging on Aho at center (maybe that played in some). But Aho has proven that he is a star. And by far the most likely scenario is that his trajectory is up.

 

And up from a ppg, +25 season, is pretty good. He is 21 years old, with only 3 seasons. His points per season: 49,65,83. -1. +4, +24. And not to get into that bad stat, but Aho has been a two way center for his entire career at all levels. Want Aho or Duchene? Want a guy who can score more AND play defense and win? That guy is not Duchene. 

 

The cap is going to bounce up in two years, but the big, young studs are already getting crazy money. Just wait to see what Mitch Marner gets. OK 94 points, but Aho put up 83 with injury. And Aho put in 3 more goals. Anyways, the cap bumps way up in three years (expansion PLUS a new TV deal). 

 

But that's not all. Aho will be coming into UFA in 5 years with a MUCH higher cap, will be in UBER prime position at age 26 to just back the truck up and load the gold bullion on there. He will be a superstar UFA if we don't lock him down first, and we can see by this how that will go. 

 

We absolutely will wish we had him locked for 8 years, even at a higher number. In 5 years, even $9.5 million will be a huge bargain. Instead, we'll have to pay much much more than that, or lose him to UFA. 

 

But that's why we kept negotiating and in the end that's what Montreal cost us, those last 3 years. Thanks for nothing imbeciles. 

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IMO the Montreal offer was weak and easily matched.  If they REALLY wanted him they would have pressed harder into the next category of two 1st rounders + 2nd and 3rd.  Their lowball attempt is as bad as the one from DW/TD.  If Aho's agent had any talent he would have pressed Habs for that (show me the money/picks).

 

Canes just take the deal and let it play out over next 5 years.  Everyone is damaged here.  DW/TD for not getting it done sooner, Habs for meddling and lowball, Agent for losing getting less and mostly Aho who now has major questions when measured vs Roddy's "What it takes to be a Hurricane."  As fo the room, I suspect the players side with Aho to get the best deal for him.  They all face that prospect and likely have empathy.

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Myth 2: Aho is an evil genius villain. 

 

Aho got lucky. Unless he actually planned to draw the first offer sheet in years, he was just holding out on his side of the negotiation the same way that every other unsigned RFA is doing. Again, for a real holdout see Nylander last year. Aho is smart (the 5 year deal is exactly right for his side), but he hit the jack pot only when Bergevan jumped in and just gave him what he wanted and then front loaded it to boot. 

 

But signing the offersheet? Come on. Again, they offered him exactly what he was asking for, then offered to give him $21 million of it up front. Look at it another way. We can say he "wants to go to Montreal", but I think that's only if we don't match, which is, in point of fact the only way that he actually goes to Montreal. Montreal has offered compensation to us that is INSULTINGLY small for a proven superstar. If we pass, then obviously we didn't want him. 

 

Aho will get $21 million before any hint of work stoppage. He will be instantly set for life. Then, he'll get a total of $42 million, before taxes. And then be set up for a massive payday as a 26 yo superstar UFA, or sign a huge deal with us again. His risk? If it all comes crashing down, he is still set for life. 

 

If he did not sign? We keep stringing him out for an 8 year deal and surely don't offer that massive up front load. It was a hardball move by him to sign, but really what was he supposed to do, insinuate a big deal was coming and we better sign him soon? Don't think we'd have liked that either.

 

In the end, it would have been settled in negotiation, but once Montreal jumped in, we were in a entirely new place.

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3 minutes ago, Manwolf said:

IMO the Montreal offer was weak and easily matched.  If they REALLY wanted him they would have pressed harder into the next category of two 1st rounders + 2nd and 3rd.  Their lowball attempt is as bad as the one from DW/TD.  If Aho's agent had any talent he would have pressed Habs for that (show me the money/picks).

 

Canes just take the deal and let it play out over next 5 years.  Everyone is damaged here.  DW/TD for not getting it done sooner, Habs for meddling and lowball, Agent for losing getting less and mostly Aho who now has major questions when measured vs Roddy's "What it takes to be a Hurricane."  As fo the room, I suspect the players side with Aho to get the best deal for him.  They all face that prospect and likely have empathy.

This is a thoughtful and well written piece. Good job Wolf. 👍

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Wow, there seems to some over reaction, IMO, to this offer sheet "incident".  Bergevin was a tough player, and that testosterone has to go somewhere right?  The offer sheet is within the rules of the CBA.  Montreal's offer was creative (front loaded) and smart (up to the cap where only one 1st round pick is lost).  Touche, nice play!  Is it going to get them Aho?  NO.  Is it going to have a cost?  YES.  They will have their hands tied for the next 6 days, unable to utilize those financial resources that may, or may NOT, end up being needed to the Aho contract.  I hope DW waits until the last minute to respond.  

OK, the Canes only get a 5 year commitment from Aho, not the 8 year they would have preferred.  Does that mean he won't stay there in years 6-8?  Who knows?  Does that mean the Canes won't want to spend that kind of money on him for years 6-8?  Who knows?  Maybe he gets injured.  Maybe his size limits him.  

I think the Canes would have spent the rest of the summer (see Nylander) wrestling with an Aho contract, that may have affected his play come the fall (assuming it got resolved).  Now there is resolution, and let me add at a cost per year probably less than they expected to play on average over the next 5.

Canes fans, time to chill.  There are only two options: 1) They match offer, which I rate as 100% probability, or 2) they do not.  

I have been a fan of the franchise since the late '70's.  When the team moved, I continued to follow the players, and then the team.  I have no connection to Carolina at all, but then I said as long as Ronnie Franchise was there I would follow.  Then even after he left, I was still hooked, and love following the players' developments.  Should that 0% option #2 occur, well, that might break the camel's back.

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To the idea of letting him walk? Just to show him whose boss? :shakeshead:.

 

Yeah, it would really give him a nasty life lesson to have to get $21 million in one year, then $42 million, and play in a hockey mecca. "No TD, don't throw me in that there briar bush...."

 

Look, if we don't match, I will be the first one off the cliff. But that would be inconceivable to me. 

 

TD has mentioned that you need superstars, who are difference makers, to win. Aho is the current reigning superstar. AND he's the only one we've had since Eric Staal's decline about 9 years ago. And Aho is most likely on the rise.

 

Would we win without him? What, like win a game? Sure. Win a cup? :coollaugh:.  

 

The last time our top scorer was even close to Aho's 83 points was 2010-11. Nine years ago. E Staal had 76. And before that go back 4 more years to Staal putting up 82. And of course the last time a Hurricane beat that total was 2005-06 with Eric Staal's 100 points in the new rules year. 

 

This is our by far biggest non first round hit ever. We found this guy and drafted him in the second round. Letting him walk now? 

 

The sky is not falling, but that's because we are going to match. If we don't? We will suck. Plain and simple. We cannot replace Aho. Svech will be amazing, but not enough. We needed every single Aho point to get into the playoffs as it was, and lots of teams are improving. 

 

If TD does not match, I would probably cancel my season tickets. It would be that bad. Not saying I wouldn't remain a fan, but not with my cash. Letting Aho walk would flip us from getting close to yearly contenders, to back to bottom feeding, tanking for top picks, and hoping for a next year that never comes. If it happens, the sky will fall. But it won't happen. It would be nuts. And really, the committee has turned out to not be nuts.

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10 minutes ago, remkin said:

o the idea of letting him walk? Just to show him whose boss? :shakeshead:.

rem, where have you seen this solution, because I had not?

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Just now, KJUNKANE said:

rem, where have you seen this solution, because I had not?

I've seen posts to that effect. 

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15 minutes ago, remkin said:

To the idea of letting him walk? Just to show him whose boss? :shakeshead:.

Yea let's not do that please.

Edited by sleekfeeder

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Just now, remkin said:

I've seen posts to that effect. 

Okay, I had not but agree that would be the last thing I'd resort to in this matter. Much rather say, okay you want to play hardball, it's on now Bergevin. We'll show you how a small market Bunch of Jerks can make your life miserable!!

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I think we will match.  But if we don't that would be so stupid of a move that it would force me to go look for a new team because there wouldn't be any hope.

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1 hour ago, cclifford10 said:

I am not fully convinced that we are going to match.  We were told Fox was going to sign.  Fox did not sign.  We were told that there wouldn't be an offer sheet.  There was an offer sheet.  We were told we would match any offer sheet.....

 

My take: when we were told Fox would sign, the Canes were committed, and fully expected, to trade Faulk, thereby opening up a relatively fast track to the NHL for Fox (which he publicly said was his most important consideration).  When that fell through, Fox used the leverage he had to force a move that gave him a faster and clearer path to the NHL.  The fact that it was with his "hometown" team was likely just icing on the cake, imo.

 

Canes brass did say they'd match any offer sheet but I don't recall them ever saying there wouldn't be one.  That was the talking heads and fans on boards like this one so I don't see why that would impact the Committees credibility.  

 

I could be wrong, but if the Canes don't match I'll be stunned.

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11 hours ago, Kyrule said:

Just to point out how out of control this signing bonus 💩 is:

 

With the offer-sheet that Aho signed, his actual salary will never be more than $750,000.

 

The rest is signing bonus money. Aho gets a HUGE signing bonus every year for five years.

 

They seriously need to change how much, and how long you can pay a signing bonus. It makes a mockery of how a contract is meant to be structured, and what a signing bonus was intended to be vs. actual salary.

 

Say the Canes match the offer sheet...so the 10.5 signing bonus and 0.75 “salary” kicks in year one. Does the entire 11.25 total count against the cap this year or is it some percentage of that total?

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The only reason I could see the Canes not matching the offer sheet is that something occured behind the scenes that will prove cancerous in the room. I doubt sour grapes will result in the team letting him walk.

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7 minutes ago, RickD_99 said:

 

Say the Canes match the offer sheet...so the 10.5 signing bonus and 0.75 “salary” kicks in year one. Does the entire 11.25 total count against the cap this year or is it some percentage of that total?

Unless I have read everything wrong, the cap is more about AAV. So it should be in the $8M range hit to the cap.

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