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Trades, Player moves and Free Agency

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5 minutes ago, remkin said:

We probably will not do it now, but a Pesce or Faulk signed, plus for Ehlers would probably still fit with salary going both ways. With DeHaan traded though, I cannot see Pesce anymore, and don't think Faulk brings Ehlers back, so I guess we're out on that one. So.....

 

IMO, we take our remaining cap and go for a goalie. Personally I'm hoping against the odds for Lehner, who people speculate $5 million/5 years maybe, or if not, maybe roll the dice on Mrazek again.

 

I think more and more that Haula was the forward move unless J Williams retires, in which case, we really need to make another. The D is obviously over set. So it really comes down to goalie.

 

But I think assuming Haula is what he was pre injury, that is enough.

 

Agree. Given our cap space, the two big things left are (1) a #1 goalie and (2) another top-6 forward if JW retires. After how the Isles have treated Lehner, I'd make a big play for him. If JW retires, I think our best bets would be Ehlers or Anders Lee (who also has been treated shabbily by the Isles). 

Edited by spyglass88
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Why is Huala enough? We it has been my opinion (and others) that we need a 2C. Even though people are saying 3C for Haula, he is the 2C based on points whatever one calls his line. Last full season for Haula: 29G 53P. Jordan Staal has NEVER hit those numbers combined. He hit the goals once. Those are top end 2C numbers. They are ridiculous 3C numbers. This is the guy we wanted. Mission Accomplished. (As long as he is fully recovered, but that's where we have to count on our brass' due diligence).

 

If J Willliams can hit his average for the past 5 years, he'll be around 50 points, 20 ish goals.

 

Svech will bump his production a lot next year. The way he came on at the end of the year and in the playoffs, with a summer to work? He will bump up a lot, and maybe even a legit breakout.

 

Foegele did the exact same thing. Started scoring at the end of the year and in the playoffs. Ice in his veins. But a summer to work, he will produce a lot more too.

 

Necas. I don't count on him for a lot  of points, but he should be good for solid third line numbers.

 

Aho. Believe it or not, Aho can bust past 1 ppg. He did that with a fall off in goals due to injury in the last 20 games or so.

 

I still think Jordan is capable of more offense, but until he does it, I have to pause on that, but his two way game is awesome and if Huala does his thing, Jordan's offense will be solid for a 3C, whilst shutting down the other guys.

 

I'd love the splash move, but with all we have in the pipeline, if we can get by this year, we won't need it, and can feed from below. Huala was a quiet splash, but bigger than he may seem IMO.

 

So it will, as always come down to goal. If we are going to go big, it has to be there. Not necessarily Bob, but something.

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DW confirms McE won't be coming back and at the same time remains confident we will have a number one goalie. But who?

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

Why is Huala enough? We it has been my opinion (and others) that we need a 2C. Even though people are saying 3C for Haula, he is the 2C based on points whatever one calls his line. Last full season for Haula: 29G 53P. Jordan Staal has NEVER hit those numbers combined. He hit the goals once. Those are top end 2C numbers. They are ridiculous 3C numbers. This is the guy we wanted. Mission Accomplished. (As long as he is fully recovered, but that's where we have to count on our brass' due diligence).

 

If J Willliams can hit his average for the past 5 years, he'll be around 50 points, 20 ish goals.

 

Svech will bump his production a lot next year. The way he came on at the end of the year and in the playoffs, with a summer to work? He will bump up a lot, and maybe even a legit breakout.

 

Foegele did the exact same thing. Started scoring at the end of the year and in the playoffs. Ice in his veins. But a summer to work, he will produce a lot more too.

 

Necas. I don't count on him for a lot  of points, but he should be good for solid third line numbers.

 

Aho. Believe it or not, Aho can bust past 1 ppg. He did that with a fall off in goals due to injury in the last 20 games or so.

 

I still think Jordan is capable of more offense, but until he does it, I have to pause on that, but his two way game is awesome and if Huala does his thing, Jordan's offense will be solid for a 3C, whilst shutting down the other guys.

 

I'd love the splash move, but with all we have in the pipeline, if we can get by this year, we won't need it, and can feed from below. Huala was a quiet splash, but bigger than he may seem IMO.

 

So it will, as always come down to goal. If we are going to go big, it has to be there. Not necessarily Bob, but something.

 

The Haula trade has the potential to be like the Nino trade. If Haula can put up numbers like his 2017-18 season, he's a 2C for sure. My concerns are two-fold: (1) Can he return to the same level he was before the injury? and (2) Were Haula's 2017-18 numbers exceptional? As to the latter, we all know that the 2017-18 season was magic for VGK and everybody punched above their weight. Karlsson, for example, had 43 goals and 78 points that season, but fell back to earth this past year with 24 goals and 56 points (which still is very strong). It's too small a sample size, but before his injury last season Haula had only 2 goals in 15 games. 

 

If JW returns, I agree with Rem that we will be better with the addition of Haula and Necas and increased scoring from Svech. But if JW retires, we will need another top-6 forward. In either case, top priority should be to going big on goalie. 

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3 hours ago, spyglass88 said:

Understand that $8.5M of cap space this year is tied up with Marleau (6.5M) and HWSNBN's (2.8M) buyouts. Next year, Marleau's BO drops off, but we may add AHWSNBN's BO.

 

Being no CapFriendly expert, I may be reading this wrong.   

See that part with Marleau seems to be a moving figure? Since he's more than 35 y/o, I thought that reduced the amount such that the total was around $3.8 mil? And I'm like Danimal38 and probably several others, who are and have been incredulous that teams like Toronto, Rangers, Pittsburgh and several others who seem to support several high priced players, yet ALWAYS are able to bring in anyone they identify? HOW? My thought has always been that they employ high priced lawyers who find loop holes we never seem to explore? And yes, we've got the 3 buyouts that are eating up valuable space, but don't others?

 

Sorry spyglass88, I do see you clarified the Cap situation, but I still just don't get how other high profile teams constantly can find room for moves? 

Edited by KJUNKANE

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21 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

See that part with Marleau seems to be a moving figure? Since he's more than 35 y/o, I thought that reduced the amount such that the total was around $3.8 mil? And I'm like Danimal38 and probably several others, who are and have been incredulous that teams like Toronto, Rangers, Pittsburgh and several others who seem to support several high priced players, yet ALWAYS are able to bring in anyone they identify? HOW? My thought has always been that they employ high priced lawyers who find loop holes we never seem to explore? And yes, we've got the 3 buyouts that are eating up valuable space, but don't others? 

Since Marleau is 35 his entire cap hit remains.  His owed 415k doesn’t count against our cap next season.  So we have about 8.5 million in dead space right now. Luckily HWSNBN’s cap finally goes away after 2021.  Darling, if bought out will ride on the cap until 2023. Would have 4.66 million in dead cap next year if we buy out Darling. 1.13 the 21-22 & 22-23 seasons.

Edited by gocanes0506
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52 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

See that part with Marleau seems to be a moving figure? Since he's more than 35 y/o, I thought that reduced the amount such that the total was around $3.8 mil? And I'm like Danimal38 and probably several others, who are and have been incredulous that teams like Toronto, Rangers, Pittsburgh and several others who seem to support several high priced players, yet ALWAYS are able to bring in anyone they identify? HOW? My thought has always been that they employ high priced lawyers who find loop holes we never seem to explore? And yes, we've got the 3 buyouts that are eating up valuable space, but don't others?

 

Sorry spyglass88, I do see you clarified the Cap situation, but I still just don't get how other high profile teams constantly can find room for moves

 

They buy cap space by unloading bad contracts onto other teams by giving up 1st round picks and players like Turbo?  :P

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Haula getting back to his Vegas numbers is anything but assured of course. But we really don't need him to. We really just need him to replace Ferland's production which projected out to around 20G and 45 points. Really, in some ways just matching Ferland's actual production could also be enough, 17G 40 points. We were #16 in "goals for" last year. That is only good enough if you get decent goaltending, but it was good enough, and better than most years.

 

If J Williams can at least stay in the neighborhood of previous years, we can then look to the increased production of Svech and IMO Foegele to increase the total "goals for". 

 

Last year we got 10 goals from our third line center, Wallmark. Jordan put in 11, but with injuries, he projected to 18. 

 

If Haula can put in 20 goals from whatever center position he's in, that's 10 more. If another winger, say Foegele can match Ferland's 17 goals, then we will see the increases from Huala, and Svech (who should be good for at least 5-10 more goals next year by himself). That's a net gain of 15-20 goals. Sure Nino could drop back, Aho might, etc. But then Necas might surprise too. 

 

If we net 15 more goals that jumps us up to #10 in scoring based on last year's team numbers.

 

I know it doesn't always work out the way it's planned, but it is a plan and it also keeps us in position to make more moves later.

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6 hours ago, OBXer said:

DW confirms McE won't be coming back and at the same time remains confident we will have a number one goalie. But who?

That's the huge question isn't it OBXer? Is Waddell thinking and thus calling Mrazek "a number one goalie"? In fact he would be if he is reupped? Then again is DW going after bigger fish? And I would be comforted by his statement but for the fact that DW all but assured that he'd get Adam Fox signed. How'd that work out for you?

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1 hour ago, Kyrule said:

It finally happened.

 

Kessel to Arizona for Galchenyuk.

 

Others prospects/pick involved.

Phat Kessel needs to get down to Tucson to El Guero Canelo and load up on those Sonoran hot dogs!

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45 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

Don’t know much of anything about Galchenyuk. Did Pittsburgh get anything more than cap relief from this deal? Setting themselves up for doing something Monday?

 

Galchenyuk is more than cap relief, he is a skilled young player that was traded for Max Domi last year, and at the time most thought Galchenyuk was the better player.

 

Galchenyuk has some work to do on defense, but he is skilled and he can score. Playing with the guys in Pittsburgh, who knows what he is capable of.

 

This was not a cap move, this is a trade that benefits Arizona in the short-term, but will likely benefit Pittsburgh in the long run.

 

JR also said he wanted to change the culture in the locker room, and most assumed that meant jettisoning Kessel.

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Chucky has 51 and 56 points as the most in his career. Then 3 seasons of low 40s.

 

Kessel has 9 seasons over Chucky’s best season. 11 seasons more than 50.  4, 80 or over.

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Kessel is 31, who knows when the decline will start. 

 

Galchenyuk is 25 years old and has room to improve. This will also be the first team he has played on with high-end talent. Montreal and Arizona haven’t exactly been known for their potent offensive attacks.

 

That’s why I said short-term for Arizona, long-term for Pittsburgh. No question Kessel is the better player right now.

 

Also, my point was that this was not a salary dump as Galchenyuk has a 4.9 million cap hit and Toronto was retaining salary on Kessel.

 

.

Edited by Kyrule

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20 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

We've got 12% of our cap space (almost $10m) eaten up by buyouts.  That's your big name, big $ FA right there. 

 

Oh, and the situation also clarifies why they're negotiating with Aho instead of just paying him what he's asking.

Exactly. We're not cheap--we're poor, thanks to HWSNBN and AHWSNBN. That's put us in the position of having to thread a needle this season.

 

But I'm not as pessimistic as some here. In addition to TT, Haula, and Nino, we've got Svech, Goat, Kouk, and Geekie (all are under their ELC deals through 20-21). (I haven't included Necas, whose deal runs through 21-22, because I think he'll need another full year in the A to be ready.) 

 

With Marty already under contract and able to slot into the top nine, Goat or Kouk would fit nicely on the fourth. By the time their ELCs expire, our buyouts of the above-referenced SNBNs do too. Plus the conditional pick we got for Marleau gives us the option of re-stocking the cupboard or packaging that pick for a move in the meantime, depending on what we end up paying for goaltending.

 

That is clearly the focus right now. Petr may be back, and I'd be okay with that, but we're obviously holding off on Aho's deal until we know for sure, because if a Bobs or a Lehner is a possibility, we're suddenly less reliant on the (modicum of) offense Faulk provides. We could move him for a smaller return than we might otherwise want, but get enough space to pay both a proven 1A and SeaBass. Despite the buyouts. And once those come off the books... mo money, mo money, mo money...

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Kessel and Galchenyuk to me are two teams switching talented, but flawed players.

 

Kessel is apparently an "eventual coach killer". I made that term up, but that's what I'm hearing. Over time he just stops being coachable. This is a classic example of the talent, and even production vs. lockerroom effect. Kessel has been moved enough with the same cloud always lingering around the trade, that there just has to be truth to it. It was pretty clear that the Kessel Effect had begun to really affect the team. So, despite absolutely elite offense, (27G, 55 A, 82 points, good for #23 in the NHL), he gets moved. I think it's worth noting that despite that phenomenal production, somehow, when he was on the ice 5 on 5, the other team put in 19 more goals as his -19 was second last on the team. Supporting the "eventual" tag, the two previous years he was +3, -4, +4 and -3. 

 

So the trade might work for Arizona, since his ex coach and the "Kessel Whisperer" is in Arizona, and more importantly Kessel has only 3 years left. The first two he usually does OK, and the last one will be a contract year. But there is risk too, since Arizona, like every single losing team wants a "new culture" and Kessel is not Justin Williams that way.

 

Galchenyuk. IMO he is starting to get dangerously close to the player with natural talent who just can't make it go in the NHL. There is no doubt he has skill, but now two teams have bailed on him. He puts up 40-50 points, but this is less than he was projected for, and he's now 25. Also, the guy does not play two ways at all. The last two years he's -50. To put that into remkinian perspective, he was last on the team in Montreal, and second to last on the team in Arizona in consecutive years. That is not coincidence. I can only imagine that JR either doesn't care and is mesmerized by the potential, or he thinks that unlike Montreal or Arizona, his brilliant coaches can fix him. Word is JR has had his eye on Galchenyuk for a while, and I'm guessing this is part of it.

 

I think Arizona ends up winning this trade. Kessel will be rejuvenated with a new scene and his old coach. He will put up a ppg, and become an even plus/minus. By the time he is scheduled to drop back into lazy Kessel, he'll be in a contract year.  Galchenuk, will continue to score some goals but give them back double. If Pittsburgh can fix Galchenyuk, then they win. I'm betting they won't. 

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I think more and more that McE either didn't want to be here or we don't want to give him 2 years and he thinks he can get it.
 
It looks to my eye like we are going for one big fish* and Ned and Forsberg will fight it out for back up, probably a part of why we made the DeHaan trade (if you're going to roll with prospect goalies, better to have two chips).
 
*how good that fish is will be the single biggest determinant of how this year goes.
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14 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

Don’t know much of anything about Galchenyuk. Did Pittsburgh get anything more than cap relief from this deal? Setting themselves up for doing something Monday?

Monday, i am thinking Dzingel or something with Toronto.

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31 minutes ago, playruffcaniac said:

Monday, i am thinking Dzingel or something with Toronto.

I would do back flips for either, dependent on who we've got to ship out, but surely if it's #27?

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2 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

I think Playruff was suggesting Pittsburgh would go after Dzingel

I guess you are right bdc, I over read that as I have liked the thought of Dzingel?

Edited by KJUNKANE

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