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In Season Talk 2019-20

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I was mad(sinfully mad) last night then I remembered just how much better our seasons are in the Roddy era. And how enjoyable it is to have this place: to strut around and crow when we're rollin, to share the misery when we're not, and to generally just talk HURRICANES HOCKEY at every level of our knowledge, interest and investment. There's nothing better than having others who feel the highs, lows and emotional investment however it's flowing from week to week. Hockey is strange, bizarre, attractive, ugly, mesmerizing, and boring all at the same time and changes every few minutes anyway, so all we spend in working up to emotional frenzy is going to be leveled out at some point, usually every point. Thanks for something to feel a part of everyone. We couldn't prosper in spirit nor dive into devastation in a place called social media without each other. Merry Christmas and prosperous days ahead for all. And I'm starting to fill up my playoff jar full of money, cause I'm betting I'll need it.

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Who ever had the idea of signing Gardiner over De Haan, I hope that person gets coal in their stocking for the next 30 years. De Haan a +10 on a terrible Hawks team, and Gardiner -105 by the end of the season. Great decision !!!

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9 hours ago, Bonivan said:

Have gave away your tix for Saturday already? If not what's the price and how many tickets?

No have not given away. 2 tickets on 3rd level. pm me if you want?

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21 minutes ago, bourke11 said:

Who ever had the idea of signing Gardiner over De Haan, I hope that person gets coal in their stocking for the next 30 years. De Haan a +10 on a terrible Hawks team, and Gardiner -105 by the end of the season. Great decision !!!

There was more in the decision than just +/- but being in Calgary I don't expect you to know that. I mean, after all y'all took Peters?

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35 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

There was more in the decision than just +/- but being in Calgary I don't expect you to know that. I mean, after all y'all took Peters?

I don't have a clue why a few of you minimize the +/- statistic, but with sufficient sample size, there's almost no better gauge to a player's worth to his team.  That is why I have always liked Pesce, and always wanted to see McKeown get a bigger shot with the Canes.  There may be some truth to the fact that W-L's don't necessarily measure the value of a pitcher in baseball, because there are other variables at play determining who wins and loses, but a hockey player with a consistent + on his side of the +/- statistic is a winning hockey player.

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13 hours ago, beboplar said:

I don't have a clue why a few of you minimize the +/- statistic, but with sufficient sample size, there's almost no better gauge to a player's worth to his team.  That is why I have always liked Pesce, and always wanted to see McKeown get a bigger shot with the Canes.  There may be some truth to the fact that W-L's don't necessarily measure the value of a pitcher in baseball, because there are other variables at play determining who wins and loses, but a hockey player with a consistent + on his side of the +/- statistic is a winning hockey player.

That I don't doubt beboplar, but the fact of the matter is that Jake Gardiner played his entire NHL career in Toronto. My 1st question would be how that team has fared during his tenure there? The next I would propose is look up his year to year +/- stat there. In 2011 he started at -2, then 0, then -3 and finally the 2014-15 was the -23 that apparently our Calgary friend is pointing out. Since 2016-17, his stats are all positive, with the exception of this year where he again is in the minus. But, look thru those NHL stats and tell me how we have been told that he is -105. Drama king maybe criticizing the DeHaan trade, whom I regret trading surely, but I think Gardner will work out? No doubt, he's had to figure out his team role, but in his case, the +/- stat doesn't seem to damn him. I suppose we shall see? Point is that his lifetime NHL +/- stat is -10, not the 105 we were led to believe.

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As is widely known, I do think that +/- on the extremes is not meaningless. I think Gardiner's +/- this year is an example of that. We can all see that he has been on the giving end of a lot of goals against for us this year. That said, I have also posted and will repeat, that his plus/minus his last few years in Toronto was actually on the good side of the equation, in fact one of the best on the team. This gives e hope that he will figure things out here and is still adjusting to this team. Given that he is known as an offensive puck moving kind of guy, he is higher risk/reward, and will probably always have some noticeable gaffs, but there is reason to hope that they will lessen and his offense will pick up and that number will fix itself.

 

The main concern would be if his back is causing problems. If his back is good, I think his plus minus will improve, possibly by a lot.

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

As is widely known, I do think that +/- on the extremes is not meaningless. I think Gardiner's +/- this year is an example of that. We can all see that he has been on the giving end of a lot of goals against for us this year. That said, I have also posted and will repeat, that his plus/minus his last few years in Toronto was actually on the good side of the equation, in fact one of the best on the team. This gives e hope that he will figure things out here and is still adjusting to this team. Given that he is known as an offensive puck moving kind of guy, he is higher risk/reward, and will probably always have some noticeable gaffs, but there is reason to hope that they will lessen and his offense will pick up and that number will fix itself.

 

The main concern would be if his back is causing problems. If his back is good, I think his plus minus will improve, possibly by a lot.

Thanks rem, I hoped you'd pitch in. Personally, I an neutral on that stat, but I just wanted to defend De Haan's trade though as I've said, I too wished we'd have kept De Haan, except for his injury at the time that made his early appearance, and his salary somewhat problematic for other moves. The statement made above that he was -110 in +/- status seems erroneous and possibly was either trolling or facetious by the Calgary poster? At any rate, I'm pulling for JG because I think that the warmer climes as well as less of a spotlight may be healing?

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l throw my two cents in, mainly because I’ve eaten so much I can’t move from the couch... As I’ve stated before, I think the +/- is a good indicator of play.  Gardner’s play has earned a -19 so far, with being on the wrong side of forwards, slow reactions, poor positioning.

 

That said, it is not a predictor of future performance.  As Remkin points out, he’s had some decent +/- stats in the past.  To me it seems he is a guy struggling in a system he just doesn’t get.  I love the system that the Canes play, but it is pretty sophisticated.  If Gardner figures out the system and has the skills to play within it, he may be a great asset.  Time will tell.

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20 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

There was more in the decision than just +/- but being in Calgary I don't expect you to know that. I mean, after all y'all took Peters?

Is the Peters thing supposed to be some kind of dig ?  You need to come up with something better than that since I can care less about the Flames. Maybe you should take the time to studying hockey if you think +\- means nothing, or better yet, go watch the last 3 Leafs game 7’s and tell me how good Gardiner is going to be with us haha.

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9 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

That I don't doubt beboplar, but the fact of the matter is that Jake Gardiner played his entire NHL career in Toronto. My 1st question would be how that team has fared during his tenure there? The next I would propose is look up his year to year +/- stat there. In 2011 he started at -2, then 0, then -3 and finally the 2014-15 was the -23 that apparently our Calgary friend is pointing out. Since 2016-17, his stats are all positive, with the exception of this year where he again is in the minus. But, look thru those NHL stats and tell me how we have been told that he is -105. Drama king maybe criticizing the DeHaan trade, whom I regret trading surely, but I think Gardner will work out? No doubt, he's had to figure out his team role, but in his case, the +/- stat doesn't seem to damn him. I suppose we shall see? Point is that his lifetime NHL +/- stat is -10, not the 105 we were led to believe.

OK, so I did some research.  Over the past 5 seasons in Toronto, Gardiner average ice time per game was 21:21, or 35.56% of the game.  I was interested to see how his +/- fared against Toronto's total GF/GA based upon his ice time, and this is what I found:

 

Season     Team GF vs GA      35.56%      Gardiner +/-      

2014/15               -51                  -18               -23                Below ave

2015/16               -48                  -17               -15                Above ave

2016/17               +9                   +3                 +24              Way above ave

2017/18               +45                 +16               +9                Below ave

2018/19               +35                 +17               +19              Above ave

 

Total                     -10                  -3.5             +14              Above ave

 

He has been above average in the +/- category over the past 5 seasons, though the results seem skewed by a great season in 2016/17.  He has been paired with TVR this season, who by all accounts is a solid, conservative, stay at home defenseman.  The team as a whole is on the + side of GF/GA, and he is well under.  My point is that we have Fleury sitting on the bench, who I think paired with TVR is a better 3rd line defenseman than Gardiner.  The money spent on Gardiner is not a good value, but that is my opinion. 

Edited by beboplar
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9 hours ago, beboplar said:

OK, so I did some research.  Over the past 5 seasons in Toronto, Gardiner average ice time per game was 21:21, or 35.56% of the game.  I was interested to see how his +/- fared against Toronto's total GF/GA based upon his ice time, and this is what I found:

 

Season     Team GF vs GA      35.56%      Gardiner +/-      

2014/15               -51                  -18               -23                Below ave

2015/16               -48                  -17               -15                Above ave

2016/17               +9                   +3                 +24              Way above ave

2017/18               +45                 +16               +9                Below ave

2018/19               +35                 +17               +19              Above ave

 

Total                     -10                  -3.5             +14              Above ave

 

He has been above average in the +/- category over the past 5 seasons, though the results seem skewed by a great season in 2016/17.  He has been paired with TVR this season, who by all accounts is a solid, conservative, stay at home defenseman.  The team as a whole is on the + side of GF/GA, and he is well under.  My point is that we have Fleury sitting on the bench, who I think paired with TVR is a better 3rd line defenseman than Gardiner.  The money spent on Gardiner is not a good value, but that is my opinion. 

Fair enough, but as you point out, with only the Toronto organization? I have no idea what that venue is like for players, but the spotlight there could, and seems to be, very psychologically damaging what with endless critics? True, many players handle the pressure and spotlight well, others not so much. Where this player falls in that spectrum remains to be seen. He may very well be defined by those stats, but may not be.  So, I suppose that I HOPE our much more relaxed venue could rejuvenate his career, much like it seems to have done for Dougie? I guess I would like to wait and see if he takes a similar path, and am prepared to eat crow at season's end. However, that save in which he saved I believe Reimer's bacon will be a memorable moment.

Edited by KJUNKANE

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Just peeking at the standings this morning.  Hanging on to the 8th playoff spot in the East.  Canes currently sit at 8th in the league.  It's going to be a bloodbath in the Metro until the end.

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16 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

Just peeking at the standings this morning.  Hanging on to the 8th playoff spot in the East.  Canes currently sit at 8th in the league.  It's going to be a bloodbath in the Metro until the end.

 

It would appear so. Beating some Metro teams would make it easier.

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16 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

It would appear so. Beating some Metro teams would make it easier.

Is that allowed?  Team seems to think it is against the rules.

 

:hide:

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2 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Fair enough, but as you point out, with only the Toronto organization? I have no idea what that venue is like for players, but the spotlight there could, and seems to be, very psychologically damaging what with endless critics? True, many players handle the pressure and spotlight well, others not so much. Where this player falls in that spectrum remains to be seen. He may very well be defined by those stats, but may not be.  So, I suppose that I HOPE our much more relaxed venue could rejuvenate his career, much like it seems to have done for Dougie? I guess I would like to wait and see if he takes a similar path, and am prepared to eat crow at season's end. However, that save in which he saved I believe Reimer's bacon will be a memorable moment.

Here's another way to look at it.  The +/- for the Canes' defensemen are:

 

Hamilton      +24

Slavin           +21

Pesce           +11

Edmundson  +9

Fleury            -3

TVR               -7

Gardiner        -19

 

They are all skating on the same ice with the same teammates.  What else can you derive from these numbers besides Gardiner happens to be on the ice most often when the opponents are scoring even strength goals.  This could be a huge coincidence, OR, he is the weak link on the Canes defense.  I choose to go with the numbers, as they are based upon a large enough sample size.

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35 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Here's another way to look at it.  The +/- for the Canes' defensemen are:

 

Hamilton      +24

Slavin           +21

Pesce           +11

Edmundson  +9

Fleury            -3

TVR               -7

Gardiner        -19

 

They are all skating on the same ice with the same teammates.  What else can you derive from these numbers besides Gardiner happens to be on the ice most often when the opponents are scoring even strength goals.  This could be a huge coincidence, OR, he is the weak link on the Canes defense.  I choose to go with the numbers, as they are based upon a large enough sample size.

Plus minus is a flawed stat, but the team did purge most of the worst offenders summer before last when Brindy took over.  The last remaining one was Faulk, and he went this past summer.  Coincidence?

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.4b226eac5814f7b3199cb44d7b4fcbc5.PNG

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Nothing else going on so I might as well jump in.

 

As almost everyone knows I hate the +/- stat mostly because it is a five man stat but used as an individual stat. Before I get accused of mounting a Faulk defense for Gardiner let me say I have modified my opinion and realize it can reflect a problem. The eye test tells me that Gardiner has had difficulty adjusting to our team play and has had a few blaring mistakes.

 

The biggest of Gardiner's downside is probable that he was brought in (or so we thought) to help run the power play and for some key scoring. That hasn't happened, at least thus far.He probable was penciled in on the second pair but well Edmundson won that ice.

 

Our defense is very forward dependent. It requires that two way game we often hear our coaches talk about. Our offense rely on an active Defense. I am not sure because I don't always look that closely but suspect Gardiner is on the ice mostly when our 3rd and 4th line are on the ice. Not exactly to this point scoring machines especially without Haula for an extended period. So our top two pairs get a boost in +/- from the forwards on the ice that can play puck possession and can score. Our top two pair get a boost from their partners, Slavin benefits from Hamilton who can score and  Edmundson and Pesce have both shown they can score. I should also point out that Gardiner's - 19 is closely followed by the Fleury/TVR combo who have a combined -10 while skating fewer minutes.

 

Again the -19 is problematic and shows a problem but hanging it all on Gardiner is probable a little unfair.

Solutions could be sit Gardiner but is the TVR/Fleury combo better?, Trade Gardiner but is the return worth the chance Gardiner finds game?, or maybe push Gardiner up with Pesce and see, or add more secondary scoring, are you listening JWilley.

 

As my post approaches remkin like proportions I will say again. I hate plus/minus when used as a single player statistic.

 

 

 

 

 

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Well, to complete my earlier post, here's the other half of the list from 2017/2018.  I crossed out the statistical irrelevant players (small games played or goalies).  The only two gone from the top half are Rask (who forgot how to hockey) and PDG.  Somebody, somewhere is paying attention to +/-.  As I said earlier, it's a flawed metric, but it is a metric.  Is it a coincidence that our best performers are in the better portion of this grid?

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.7ba1b5a9e93752dd5f629d5c290cf451.PNG

 

I don't think it's time to give up on Gardiner, but the trend is troubling.  A player with some defensive liabilities has to contribute enough offensively to compensate.

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On 12/24/2019 at 9:40 PM, bourke11 said:

Who ever had the idea of signing Gardiner over De Haan, I hope that person gets coal in their stocking for the next 30 years. De Haan a +10 on a terrible Hawks team, and Gardiner -105 by the end of the season. Great decision !!!

Maybe not...

https://www.nhl.com/news/chicago-blackhawks-de-haan-seabrook-to-miss-rest-of-the-season/c-313075580

 

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2 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

What else can you derive from these numbers besides Gardiner happens to be on the ice most often when the opponents are scoring even strength goals.

 

That those forwards skating with him, TVR and Fleury can't score. Just a thought. As I said the Gardiner -19 certainly points to a problem as does the eye test but that stat used as an individual stat is flawed. Notice the list you posted from 2017-18 seven were forwards and 3 were D men.  

 

Last season Faulk +9 and deHann +1 were moved. Foegele -17 and Wallmark -8 were not. Why well Faulk had an expiring contract that reportedly we couldn't re-sign but wanted to while Foegele and Wallmark are young and promising even with the D lapses

 

I absolutely admit +/- is a indicator but as an individual stat to point a players all around defensive play and value is almost worthless. The stat is more offensive driven than defensive driven. If your on the ice with Aho, TT, Svech and Hamilton what are the odds another team will score more against you then we score.

 

Still something will need to be done with our third pair and maybe a forward or two if they don't get it going

 

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IMO plus-minus is a very difficult stat. The problem is getting at the idea behind it is very very important. I get back to what SD points out. The committee is looking at all aspects of the player's game that lead to winning hockey, and keeping the guys that do winning stuff, and dumping guys who don't. We know from past comments that they are using much more accurate stats than plus-minus, but over years of watching +/- as we've debated this since I've been on here, has convinced me that guy on the far ends (very plus and very minus) overwhelming do deserve their number, and that number ends up correlating with who the team moves. 

 

Yes, offensive starts, offensive skill in front of, or with you on your line, offensive skill of the lines you face, etc all factor in, but at some point they are not strong enough to account for a guy who is way up or way down on the list. There is bad luck, but at some point the odds that it is all luck or other explanations drops off as a statistical likelihood, and the number begins to be accurate. 

 

The stat is mostly useless for guys in the middle because all of those random variables are still too much in play. 

 

Anways, I don't think the team is relying much +/-, because I think they have a more accurate compilation of many incidences where the player has done a good thing vs a bad thing on the ice, and have better stats to single the player out. But the fact that the low plus-minus guys are getting moved on by the committee, but not by prior GM's to me is reflective of the opinion that +/- at the extremes correlates with things that the player is doing that makes him more or less valuable than just his points.

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On 12/24/2019 at 9:40 PM, bourke11 said:

Who ever had the idea of signing Gardiner over De Haan, I hope that person gets coal in their stocking for the next 30 years. De Haan a +10 on a terrible Hawks team, and Gardiner -105 by the end of the season. Great decision !!!

We needed a substitute for Hanifin's -19 this year.  They'll battle it out for supremacy in 2020.

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We've all revealed our personal opinions of +/- a number of times, but i'm in the same place i've always been - it isn't a sole indicator or a player's value, but when one player is consistently a +20 player and his teammate is consistently a -20 player, i have a hard time dismissing it as a 'team stat' and saying it's just a luck thing for either of them.  Sometimes you make your own luck and if you're ultra-sound defensively, you're way more-likely to be in the higher reaches of your team than the lower.  IMO, of course.

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