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In Season Talk 2019-20

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4 hours ago, OBXer said:

 

That those forwards skating with him, TVR and Fleury can't score. Just a thought. As I said the Gardiner -19 certainly points to a problem as does the eye test but that stat used as an individual stat is flawed. Notice the list you posted from 2017-18 seven were forwards and 3 were D men.  

 

Last season Faulk +9 and deHann +1 were moved. Foegele -17 and Wallmark -8 were not. Why well Faulk had an expiring contract that reportedly we couldn't re-sign but wanted to while Foegele and Wallmark are young and promising even with the D lapses

 

I absolutely admit +/- is a indicator but as an individual stat to point a players all around defensive play and value is almost worthless. The stat is more offensive driven than defensive driven. If your on the ice with Aho, TT, Svech and Hamilton what are the odds another team will score more against you then we score.

 

Still something will need to be done with our third pair and maybe a forward or two if they don't get it going

 

I do not believe I typed what you have as my quote

 

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I'm trying to give Gardiner some time.  Personally, I think Gardiner's worst stat is his shots on goal.  He's put up only 45 shots on goal in 37 games, with PP time.  45 shots.  By far, the lowest on the D with his games played.

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9 hours ago, super_dave_1 said:

Well, to complete my earlier post, here's the other half of the list from 2017/2018.  I crossed out the statistical irrelevant players (small games played or goalies).  The only two gone from the top half are Rask (who forgot how to hockey) and PDG.  Somebody, somewhere is paying attention to +/-.  As I said earlier, it's a flawed metric, but it is a metric.  Is it a coincidence that our best performers are in the better portion of this grid?

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.7ba1b5a9e93752dd5f629d5c290cf451.PNG

 

I don't think it's time to give up on Gardiner, but the trend is troubling.  A player with some defensive liabilities has to contribute enough offensively to compensate.

The larger the sample size, the more relevant the +/- statistic becomes.  Sure, Foegele's +3 over a sample size of 2 games is not very relevant.  TVR's team high +9 over 79 games carries more weight, and seeing him paired with Gardiner now and trending towards negative numbers should speak to you.

Bottom line, this game is about scoring more goals than your opponent.  If you are the common denominator compared to your teammates when goals are being given up, you are part of the problem, not a part of the solution.  The NBA tracks +/- for all players in every game now.  Compared to Gardiner's -19, there is nobody else on the team with a negative rating worse than -7.  Either he is one unlucky fellow whose skate is touching the ice when all of the fluke goals get scored, OR he is part of the reason those goals are being scored.  I choose to believe the latter.  On top of that he has got a heavy contract.  Not a good combo.

Edited by beboplar
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i'm gonna choose to give Gardiner some more time to acclimate, just like Dougie got, when only 13 months ago folks were doggin' him to live up.

 

 

Edited by coastal_caniac
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9 hours ago, coastal_caniac said:

i'm gonna choose to give Gardiner some more time to acclimate, just like Dougie got, when only 13 months ago folks were doggin' him to live up.

 

 

Yeah, for a little perspective, let's look at Canes D stats on 12/27/2018.  Slavin and Dougie must go

 

edit: when I looked this up to see where Dougie was and when I saw Slavin, it was "holy *edit*"

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.7520a5d06f90f66b4d4aed35b46cd6c1.PNG

Edited by super_dave_1
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22 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

 

Yeah, for a little perspective, let's look at Canes D stats on 12/27/2018.  Slavin and Dougie must go

 

edit: when I looked this up to see where Dougie was and when I saw Slavin, it was "holy *edit*"

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.7520a5d06f90f66b4d4aed35b46cd6c1.PNG

In their defense, that was a reflection on how the ENTIRE TEAM pretty much sucked at that point.  The rest is history  for last season.  Gardiner is a bad +/- stat on an otherwise good team.  

Edited by AWACSooner
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7 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

In their defense, that was a reflection on how the ENTIRE TEAM pretty much sucked at that point.  The rest is history  for last season.  Gardiner is a bad +/- stat on an otherwise good team.  

Let me see if I got this right.  The bad +/- on 12/27/2018 was a result of team play.  The bad +/- on 12/27/2019 is an individual stat.

 

Got it.

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3 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

Let me see if I got this right.  The bad +/- on 12/27/2018 was a result of team play.  The bad +/- on 12/27/2019 is an individual stat.

 

Got it.

Although you are being East Coast cynical, which I recall completely having been born and raised there but away from for 30 years, I agree with your statement.

 

12/28/18 was the eve on which the Canes started a run that was as good as any team in the NHL.  Until then, they were just not good.  Slavin had played his whole career with Pesce and he was being partnered with others.  Hamilton was under much more pressure than Gardiner, having been traded for Hanifan and Lindholm, two 5th picks of their drafts.  Gardiner is under very little pressure, playing 3rd line defense with a dependable stay at home partner, TVR.  

 

There's a reason Gardiner was on the trading block the past couple of seasons and no other team dealt.  His FA signing by the Canes was truly a head scratcher.  If you think he is about to become Dougie Hamilton, I will work on the East Coast cynic long buried inside of me.

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As I have stated many, many times in the past, plus/minus is a valid metric.  It's also a flawed metric that must be taken for what it is.  Gardiner's numbers are troubling now, but he is in a new system.  He has been on the trading block before, but so was Justin Faulk who got another big deal in StL when he left here.  I try to not put too much emphasis on small sample size.  Obviously the brain trust saw something they liked and thought he was a good add. 

 

What the hell is East Coast cynical?  I'm just a realist.

 

edit: back to my post you quoted.  You just can't take stats and only use the part that supports your argument.  I was making the point that +/- can't be ignored when the team is bad, and then leaned on as the Biblical answer when the team is good.

 

 

Edited by super_dave_1
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40 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

Let me see if I got this right.  The bad +/- on 12/27/2018 was a result of team play.  The bad +/- on 12/27/2019 is an individual stat.

 

Got it.

 

Yeah, how about that. BIG SURPRISE. It's why it's futile to argue about plus minus.

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1 hour ago, super_dave_1 said:

As I have stated many, many times in the past, plus/minus is a valid metric.  It's also a flawed metric that must be taken for what it is.  Gardiner's numbers are troubling now, but he is in a new system.  He has been on the trading block before, but so was Justin Faulk who got another big deal in StL when he left here.  I try to not put too much emphasis on small sample size.  Obviously the brain trust saw something they liked and thought he was a good add. 

 

What the hell is East Coast cynical?  I'm just a realist.

 

edit: back to my post you quoted.  You just can't take stats and only use the part that supports your argument.  I was making the point that +/- can't be ignored when the team is bad, and then leaned on as the Biblical answer when the team is good.

 

 

Just to put his +/- standing in perspective, of the 843 NHL listed with +/- stats during the 2019/20 season, Gardiner is in a 3 way tie for 834th worst.  That puts him in the bottom 1% of the league.

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3 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Just to put his +/- standing in perspective, of the 843 NHL listed with +/- stats during the 2019/20 season, Gardiner is in a 3 way tie for 834th worst.  That puts him in the bottom 1% of the league.

 

You had me at I don't like Jake Gardiner :o

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15 minutes ago, AWACSooner said:

I still like Chad LaRose, though ;)

He was a grinder, wasn't he?  Closest thing current team has would be Brock McGinn, right?

 

Speaking of grinders, probably my favorite Whaler of all time was Kevin Dineen.  The all time best play I saw in person was in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup series against Montreal in 1986, when he stole the puck from Larry Robinson, swooped in, deeked Patrick Roy, and scored the game winning goal to send the series to Game 7.

 

Dineen is now coaching the San Diego Gulls, the AHL affiliate of the Ducks.  My wife and I have a mini ticket plan, and I saw him on the ice recently walking to the bench.  I couldn't believe how small he is;  back in the day, he could give it as good as anybody, no matter their size.  I knew he wasn't big, but seeing him in person with skates off, didn't realize how much size he was giving up.  I suspect that's the kind of player LaRose was also.

Edited by beboplar

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20 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

You had me at I don't like Jake Gardiner :o

Not that I actually don't like Gardiner, but if the Canes don't, and with the Black Hawks having freed up $11.3M of available cap space with the long term injuries to defensemen Seabrook and de Haan, they might want to start talking trade.

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So, reading the Rangers game day preview article on the Canes app/website, and talks about McGuinn and Foegle missed the morning skate because they had "travel issues" getting back to Raleigh.

 

RB said that happens, but they better be the best 2 players on the ice tonight.

 

So, what is this all about?

 

Did these 2 players stay back in Toronto to spend time with family, or they went out and partied too hard and couldn't make it back, or what?

 

Any insight on this would be interesting.

 

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2 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Not that I actually don't like Gardiner, but if the Canes don't, and with the Black Hawks having freed up $11.3M of available cap space with the long term injuries to defensemen Seabrook and de Haan, they might want to start talking trade.

 

Gardiner has been mentioned in trade rumors and the Blackhawks have a need.  We have a recent history of dealing with Chicago so I wouldn't rule it out. Just as possible is moving Fluery or TVR (expiring contract). I have even seen Bean mentioned as a trade possibility although at this point I sort of doubt it.

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5 minutes ago, OBXer said:

 

Gardiner has been mentioned in trade rumors and the Blackhawks have a need.  We have a recent history of dealing with Chicago so I wouldn't rule it out. Just as possible is moving Fluery or TVR (expiring contract). I have even seen Bean mentioned as a trade possibility although at this point I sort of doubt it.

Don't see any point in moving either of Fleury's or Bean's $800K contracts, when there's a $4.1M (Gardiner) and $2.3M (TVR) that can be moved, replaced, and free up cap space to sign JW.

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Trade Gardiner now and any perspective UFA signing next summer is going to be asking for a NTC.  Signed DeHaan summer before last for 4 years and traded him after one.  Signed Gardiner this year.  Also, if Gardiner stinks, don't the other GM's have eyes too?

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2 minutes ago, super_dave_1 said:

Trade Gardiner now and any perspective UFA signing next summer is going to be asking for a NTC.  Signed DeHaan summer before last for 4 years and traded him after one.  Signed Gardiner this year.  Also, if Gardiner stinks, don't the other GM's have eyes too?

Yah, I came to that conclusion as well...if Gardiner ends up being Mongo on the blue line, we are stuck with him, as it sends a clear signal to any defenseman that, if you sign here, you had better adapt quickly or else we’re shipping you out. 

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On this +/- issue, while I share it appears coastal's and super_dave's opinion, in keeping with my profession I believe, I can see validity in both sides of this issue, My initial reaction back a day or so ago when bourke11 posted was to be defensive of MY TEAM, thus I apparently erroneously bristled when I thought, based on his location(Calgary), that a fan of another team was on here to criticize our organization. For that I apologize to him.

 

Now on to my soapbox. As so often pointed out on here thru the years, dealing with statistics is complex, and IMHO, like I try to emphasize to my colleagues in medicine, simply taking a laboratory generated test value and extrapolating a disease process from it can lead one down an incorrect path. Too frequently I see physicians emphasize lab values at the expense of thorough histories and clinical acumen. If I may then draw a parallel, the Eye Test in any sport should not be ignored.

 

As far as Jake Gardiner is concerned, not that I question his negative +/- stat, and realize that there is statistical validity to it, what with several years and games to give a large D value(N/D), BUT the single flaw I see in saying that this negative plus-minus value over what 8 years, defines his play, however one must remember this was ALL IN THE TORONTO system. Again I point out that some players prosper in that Big League atmosphere while others may suffer? Could Jake be in the latter category?

 

Further, I am not so naive as to believe that JG's plus-minus is solely due to the fact that he may have been in a highly critical venue where he floundered, but much like Dougie Hamilton's about face, I see value in allowing him time before he's labelled a "failed project". Nurturing like this area and this team can provide, away from the constant spotlight of criticism, could help him resurrect his career, or not? As so many before pointed out, he's in a new system with new coach and teammates, so who knows how the adjustment period will turn out.

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18 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

So there you go, like Ferland, so much for DeHaan's +/- compared to Gardiner, if DeHaan is fragile?

Very true, but Gardiner might be much more valuable to us in the press box than on the ice...

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