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In Season Talk 2019-20

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We're torn y'all, and torn between an off season of upgrading talent levels at several positions coming off a season of lesser talent that extended itself to the level it takes night after night, even when they lost tight checking, competitive games. The building of winning, and entering the playoffs on that wave, with the idea that we could challenge, began as the calendar turned and continued until the hot, physical B's outmatched us. What we were able to do was SUSTAIN. Sustain from period to period, game to game, week to week a level of play. Why, with more talent and the indicators of spectacular play, comebacks to write home about, has the ability to just sustain play for more than a few minutes completely been washed away. Its night and day mind boggling, and we're liable to see both in the span of 6 minutes. With the inconsistency Are we in the race still, absolutely. Are we building anything to make that race less than a bloodbath, absolutely not. We're mired in blah blah blah, and considering what collectively Roddy and JW were kinda responsible for leading the group into and through in an over achieving season like last, they too are probably pulling their hair out in private. And heck, if not for JW at least helping to pull off a few win when we shouldn't haves, it would have been over two weeks ago.  Do we have a good team, even in a year when everyone we need to be better than is too, yes we do. Where the heck are they for 30 minutes a night?

Edited by 2ndsacker

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14 minutes ago, 2ndsacker said:

between an off season of upgrading talent levels

To me 2ndsacker, there's the catch as the "upgrading" we expected is ON PAPER, not when it's been integrated into this present team? Hamilton going down has been a major factor, no doubt, but see the team I hate to mention, the Penguins, when 1 or 2 of their critical players were out, and they persevered? I could go thru our entire roster and name those whose play has fallen off from last year, but that's been done and being done on this thread, but I think it's the majority. I am in agreement with the thought that A PICK UP player is not going to turn this around, and I'd hate to waste a high draft pick, ESPECIALLY IN WHAT"S BEING TOUTED AS A BANNER DRAFT YEAR, to try to fix the myriad of problems? Let's sell off the deadwood and go from there?

Edited by KJUNKANE
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Image-1.png

 

I have to think lifting one graph from an article is as likely to lead to new subscribers than anything, and I've been pumping their site, so I show this from Sarah Civ's article on what's wrong with the Canes in The Athletic. 

 

I'd argue that scoring depth is part of it too. 

 

There is another graph (gotta subscribe) that shows our goalies vs. expected goals. Since the above graph shows that we are increasingly giving up juicy chances, Mrazek is actually about average when that's factored in (he's way below average on straight save %). But what's really more amazing (though we clearly sensed it on here) is Reimer. He is a outlier on that graph in a very good way. He is the best goalie on the graph in terms of results for a guy getting shellacked. By a good bit. 

 

Together it suggests the following: 1. Sloppy D is a major problem. 2. While Mrazek is better than he seems, Reimer is by far the better goalie, especially in the face of this sloppy D. 

 

One other thing on the goalie graph. There is another goalie keeping his team in it despite sloppy D. That is Lehner. 

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

One other thing on the goalie graph. There is another goalie keeping his team in it despite sloppy D. That is Lehner.

Thank you, Rem - it is very interesting.

TD, listen to Rem - get Lehner!

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

Image-1.png

 

I have to think lifting one graph from an article is as likely to lead to new subscribers than anything, and I've been pumping their site, so I show this from Sarah Civ's article on what's wrong with the Canes in The Athletic. 

 

I'd argue that scoring depth is part of it too. 

 

There is another graph (gotta subscribe) that shows our goalies vs. expected goals. Since the above graph shows that we are increasingly giving up juicy chances, Mrazek is actually about average when that's factored in (he's way below average on straight save %). But what's really more amazing (though we clearly sensed it on here) is Reimer. He is a outlier on that graph in a very good way. He is the best goalie on the graph in terms of results for a guy getting shellacked. By a good bit. 

 

Together it suggests the following: 1. Sloppy D is a major problem. 2. While Mrazek is better than he seems, Reimer is by far the better goalie, especially in the face of this sloppy D. 

 

One other thing on the goalie graph. There is another goalie keeping his team in it despite sloppy D. That is Lehner. 

 

Rem, what does that graph show?  Is it just goals given up in a game against what would be expected given the relevant 5 game rolling average?  Or does it somehow take into account actual vs. expected goals given the actual quality of chances for the other team in a game?  (hope that makes sense)

Edited by LakeLivin

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Yeah, I'm interested in what it exactly shows too.  But I'll say this much, it matches exactly how we all feel about the change that occurred around Dec 21.  Did some solstice witch put a hex on this team or something?

 

Anyway, we "know it when we see it," what what we've seen is a team that has been struggling since then, putting up a pace that won't make the playoffs if it continues.

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3 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Rem, what does that graph show?  Is it just goals given up in a game against what would be expected given the relevant 5 game rolling average?  Or does it somehow take into account actual vs. expected goals given the actual quality of chances for the other team in a game?  (hope that makes sense)

It is expected goals against. It has to do with not just shots against, but "high danger" shots against. Based on how many quality chances and high danger chances the team gives up, it's how many goals would be expected. It has become a big part of trying to assess goalies too because once you have the "expected goals against" you can see what the actual goals were, and if it's lower, the goalie is probably stopping more than average.

 

While we are still good a suppressing all shots, we are bad at limiting high danger chances. We are 10th worst overall, and that graph shows that the trend is not our friend. We were much better at limiting those danger chances in the first half of the season, and have been getting worse. We started off pretty good (well above average), then moved to average, and finally in 2020 well below average. 

 

This is not only not conducive to winning, but it wreaks havoc on the goalie's save %, where lots of low danger shots pumps that up. One of the things that makes trying to figure out how good a goalie really is harder than it already is. One thing is for sure, our goalies are better than their save %. Based on this, Mrazek is actually fairly decent, and Reimer is outstanding this year so far. 

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So would trading assets for Lehner really change our prospects? The Islanders had him last year, and we know how that ended. I’m not saying Lehner would not be an upgrade, but this team has a lot more problems than just in goal. 

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17 hours ago, bluedevilcane said:

So would trading assets for Lehner really change our prospects? The Islanders had him last year, and we know how that ended. I’m not saying Lehner would not be an upgrade, but this team has a lot more problems than just in goal. 

It all depends on the price. But IMO a game stealing goalie is the only single rental who could change the course of a bubble team, of the players listed as available anyways. Arguably Kreider could, but the price is going to be soo high, and I don't see us going there.

 

Right now, Reimer is actually one of the best goalies in the NHL if his save % is adjusted using expected goals. Mrazek is average. One of the others at the very top using that same metric: Lehner. 

 

As to the playoffs last year, Lehner was not the problem for the NYI. Over the first 3 games his save % was .930. He allowed one goal per game before OT in the first two. Game 4, they laid down. He was actually very good. 

 

It would mean moving Mrazek, but if the goalies maintained their current play, Lehner/Reimer has the potential to be one of the best tandems in the NHL. That goes a huge way for any team, but especially one struggling to nail down it's D. 

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I dont expect any major moves but would expect us to at least address the elephant in the room.....Jake Gardiner.  Bring up Bean or Priske. They cannot be any worse. Rod finally went with the SAT line now it is time for him to swallow his pride and drop Staal down to where he belongs. Bring up Gauthier to add some more speed and net front presence.               Svech.           Aho.          TT.                      DZINGLE       Haula.       Necas.              Nino.             Staal.        Gauthier.          Foegele.        Wallmart.   JW.                Gardiner has to go as his speed is atrocious and he gets burnt nightly. I keep going back to the chart I posted previously regarding the D. We have to make an attempt at fixing it.  https://cardiaccane.com/2020/02/05/carolina-hurricanes-petr-mrazek-yield-starting-job-james-riemer/

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In addition to defensive breakdowns, we have had a let down of secondary scoring after Aho, TT, Svechnikov and Necas. 

 

To keep it simple, I'm not including Wallmark or Foegele. Foegele is on a 16 goal, 37 point pace, which is not really bad for his second season also he's quietly improved his overall game and has gone from last by far at -17 last year to #7 best +9, while upping his offense. Walmark's 14G/32P projection is tops for a 4th liner, and Marinook has been injured and also draws in on the 4th line.

 

So, in remkin order of let downs in secondary scoring we have:

 

1. Jordan Staal. Projecting for 10 goals and 28 points. As a center that is below the cutoff for bad 3rd line center. Given his minutes, this is what an average 4C would produce if given those minutes and line-mates. Proof? Our own 4C Wallmark has 14G/32P production actually getting 4th line minutes and line-mates. I don't know what is going on with Staal, but it's killing us. He's never proven to be a big time offense driver, but he's about half his usual production. He's also the Captain. Having your captain as the #1 underproducer? How does that not matter at least some?

 

2. Nino. Projected 11 goals, 36 points. On goals Nino could be put in the #1 slot. There's not enough antivenin in the world for how snakebitten he is this year. At some point it's not all snakebites.

 

3. Dzingel. 10G, 42P. Getting 42 points from Dzingel is not bad. But he is a self described goal scorer. 10 goals? 

 

4. Haula. I had to do a breakdown on Haula, and it's not cleanly what I had thought. I had thought that this was all pre-knee problems - post knee problems. And I don't doubt that is still part of the issue. But Haula's major time missed was Nov 16 to Dec 21. Yet when he first came back he had 7 points in his first 9 games. Then, starting Jan 11 to now? 2 points, both in one game (where he was still -1 in that game). So, Jan 11 to now: 13 games, 12 games with zero points. What happened in or around Jan 11? 

 

Before Jan 11? 11 goals, 19 points in 25 games. 

 

Projections for Haula pre and post Jan 11:

 

Pre: 36 goals, 62 points (25 games)

Post: 6 goals, 12 points (13 games)

 

IMO (I know it's my theme, but just because not sure everyone has read it), the main problem is that two of the 4 guys listed as let downs in scoring are CENTERS. Thus, for that past 13 games, we've had no centers below Aho doing anything much. And so lines 2-4 struggle, at least in large part, because lines 2 and 3 don't have centers that create any offense. LAST 13 GAMES: Haula: 2 points. Staal: 3 points. 

 

If we can get 2/4 guys listed above, and at least one of the centers going, that would make a big difference.

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14 minutes ago, remkin said:

What happened in or around Jan 11? 

Isn't that around the time that the Haula's lost their child. That could be the root cause of a lot of Haula's issues, scoring, apparent fallout with coach, etc. Also could be causing a ripple effect with Jordan having a resurgence of emotions from the loss of his daughter. This is all purely speculation on my part, but hopefully whatever the issue they will be able to resolve it in short order.

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14 minutes ago, DevildogKodi said:

Isn't that around the time that the Haula's lost their child. That could be the root cause of a lot of Haula's issues, scoring, apparent fallout with coach, etc. Also could be causing a ripple effect with Jordan having a resurgence of emotions from the loss of his daughter. This is all purely speculation on my part, but hopefully whatever the issue they will be able to resolve it in short order.

Could be. That would make sense. To my eye he's just a half step from full engagement on the ice.

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37 minutes ago, remkin said:

 

 

4. Haula. I had to do a breakdown on Haula, and it's not cleanly what I had thought. I had thought that this was all pre-knee problems - post knee problems. And I don't doubt that is still part of the issue. But Haula's major time missed was Nov 16 to Dec 21. Yet when he first came back he had 7 points in his first 9 games. Then, starting Jan 11 to now? 2 points, both in one game (where he was still -1 in that game). So, Jan 11 to now: 13 games, 12 games with zero points. What happened in or around Jan 11? 

 

Before Jan 11? 11 goals, 19 points in 25 games. 

 

Projections for Haula pre and post Jan 11:

 

Pre: 36 goals, 62 points (25 games)

Post: 6 goals, 12 points (13 games)

 

 

He and his wife lost their unborn baby to a miscarriage in early January. Gotta think that has something to do with it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/hurricanes/2020/01/02/carolina-hurricanes-erik-haula-wife-kristen-lose-unborn-daughter/2793756001/

 

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7 minutes ago, donwalrus said:

He and his wife lost their unborn baby to a miscarriage in early January. Gotta think that has something to do with it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/hurricanes/2020/01/02/carolina-hurricanes-erik-haula-wife-kristen-lose-unborn-daughter/2793756001/

 

Yeah, DDK pointed that out also. That could well be right.

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Haven't been able to watch the games this year so this question is based solely on stats.  Has Gardiner turned the corner to the extent that he might be able to hold down a 2nd pair spot if we aren't in a position to upgrade?

 

2019:  40 games,  8 pts,  -20

2020:  18 games, 10 pts,  -1

 

That's a pretty significant difference.  Has his play actually improved that much?

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12 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

Haven't been able to watch the games this year so this question is based solely on stats.  Has Gardiner turned the corner to the extent that he might be able to hold down a 2nd pair spot if we aren't in a position to upgrade?

 

2019:  40 games,  8 pts,  -20

2020:  18 games, 10 pts,  -1

 

That's a pretty significant difference.  Has his play actually improved that much?

I'll try to answer you Lake with I hope an objective answer. For me, I have seen improvement. Many will dispute this, but unfortunately, to my eyes, if this player is on the ice, he gets labeled as the source of any and all break downs. He certainly is not the PP guru we might have been lead to believe, but I think he's gradually adapting to this system? Further, he occasionally makes a spectacular play only to follow up with something bone headed.

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I think he's improved also. There are fewer of the "5 yo from the upper deck could call number on the gaff" plays. His coverage and decisions are hardly Slavinian, but I think he has improved significantly. Now that is improving from a pretty bad place. But still improving.

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On 2/15/2020 at 1:06 AM, slapshot02 said:

I dont expect any major moves but would expect us to at least address the elephant in the room.....Jake Gardiner.  Bring up Bean or Priske. They cannot be any worse. Rod finally went with the SAT line now it is time for him to swallow his pride and drop Staal down to where he belongs. Bring up Gauthier to add some more speed and net front presence.               Svech.           Aho.          TT.                      DZINGLE       Haula.       Necas.              Nino.             Staal.        Gauthier.          Foegele.        Wallmart.   JW.                Gardiner has to go as his speed is atrocious and he gets burnt nightly. I keep going back to the chart I posted previously regarding the D. We have to make an attempt at fixing it.  https://cardiaccane.com/2020/02/05/carolina-hurricanes-petr-mrazek-yield-starting-job-james-riemer/

Bean and Goat are No’s 2 + 3 on the Checkers in points. They have nowhere else to go if not up to the big club. Frankly the same with Kouk who leads the team in points. 3 is too many to bring up at this point in the Canes season but 1 or 2 of those 3 would imo give the team a good youth surge at the right time.  Our goaltending is good enough. I wouldn’t give the farm for Lehner when we have Ned more than pulling his weight in Charlotte and could be permanently up by next season. Good problems to have I guess. Compare this squad to what Mueller was having to put on the ice back when. 

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More important who has the best looking mom? Based on what I saw in Smashville Svech’s mom for sure, followed by Huala and Mrazek’s moms. There was also a good looking blond sitting beside Nino’s mom but couldn’t see her number. 

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3 hours ago, raleighcaniac said:

More important who has the best looking mom? Based on what I saw in Smashville Svech’s mom for sure, followed by Huala and Mrazek’s moms. There was also a good looking blond sitting beside Nino’s mom but couldn’t see her number. 

That was Mrazek’s girlfriend’s mom.

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I sure am glad that whole Aho offer sheet mess is behind us, and didn't cause any real distractions, or ruin our season. 

So as reference next year boys, when Aho starts slow AGAIN, we see what type of season he can build. He's playing so well. Good for him, and 

good for the Canes for locking him up!

 

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Well its just money right?  All signed up/paid for next season and playoffs(no jinx)

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